Odds of getting a airline job

brien23

brien23

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The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued roughly 20,000 initial commercial pilot certificates in recent peak years like 2025, Airline pilot hiring in 2025 normalized to around 5,000 total industry hires, down about 13% year-over-year as the market transitioned away from the post-pandemic. The days of airlines hire anyone who could read a checklist and pull a landing gear handle up are gone. Certified Flight Instructors (CFIs) applying for airline jobs are facing significantly higher standards, increased scrutiny, and a much more selective hiring market than in previous years.
 
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It is a cyclical industry.

But airline jobs are plentiful and good paying - as a mechanic A&P.
 
It’s cyclical. I’ve watched this happen up and down over the years.

But there are plane orders on the books and airlines all over the world have expansion plans. Old pilots retire and need replacements. Other pilots medical out. So change is constant.
 
For some reason I'm reminded of the saying "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."


IT has similar cycles. There's some shortage in X technology, so everyone ramps up to fill that shortage, and go figure, then there are too many. If you try to follow the oscillation, you'll be behind. Either ride it out, make your own prediction, or be lucky. My survival has pretty much just been from the last one.
 
Not all of those minted commercial guys are airline bound. Some go off and do other non aviation stuff when the going gets tough. Some do 91/135 with no desire for 121. Some get stuck or are content at a regional. Some got commercial for personal reasons, or for lower insurance. Some got sick or died.

I this it is false to say all 20,000 were 121 bound and had the tenacity to make it happen. If you want it, go get it.
 
15% down from peak in 2025 is not what I would call a big down cycle, 5,000 jobs for 20,000 new pilots is why airline jobs are facing significantly higher standards, increased scrutiny, and a much more selective hiring market than in previous years. The flight schools are pumping pilots out at a rate the jobs are not their now, airlines will need more pilots but the ratio of pilots to jobs is only going to get worse. If airlines had their way they would get rid of the right seat and make it single pilot operation. "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."
 
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brien23 said:
15% down from peak in 2025 is not what I would call a big down cycle, 5,000 jobs for 20,000 new pilots is why airline jobs are facing significantly higher standards, increased scrutiny, and a much more selective hiring market than in previous years. The flight schools are pumping pilots out at a rate the jobs are not their now, airlines will need more pilots but the ratio of pilots to jobs is only going to get worse. If airlines had their way they would get rid of the right seat and make it single pilot operation. "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."
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There is also a big time lag between getting a commercial certificate and getting the 1200-1500 hrs required to get hired by the airline. Of the commercial pilots I have trained over the past few years a few have met the 1500 hr requirements, 2 are flying fire fighting aircraft. 3 others are flying corporate jets. Another is flying Crop Dusters. Only one is flying for a regional Carrier.

Brian
CFIIG/ASEL
 
I know a LOT of dudes who got ratings JUST to get in on the airline cheddar 2 years ago. They're pretty buttmad right now being forced to potter around in C172s with their glorious golden 1500 hours.

Hard to feel pity for them, though. Last one to the gold rush gets to clean the horse stables I guess.
 
Watching those who never attempted nor never made it to the cockpit of a 121 smirking at those who do have the desire to get there…..

I remember those as well. Fortunately I had the last laugh.
 
texasclouds said:
Not all of those minted commercial guys are airline bound. Some go off and do other non aviation stuff when the going gets tough. Some do 91/135 with no desire for 121. Some get stuck or are content at a regional. Some got commercial for personal reasons, or for lower insurance. Some got sick or died.

I this it is false to say all 20,000 were 121 bound and had the tenacity to make it happen. If you want it, go get it.
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I'd add one point to that. How many of the 20,000 were US citizens trying for jobs on US airlines? In my part of Florida, based on the accents I hear on the radio, most are bound for China, India and other overseas gigs.
 
You can become a CPA instead. We're having a hard time finding kids that want to work 80 hour weeks during busy season. Go figure.
 
texasclouds said:
Not all of those minted commercial guys are airline bound. Some go off and do other non aviation stuff when the going gets tough. Some do 91/135 with no desire for 121. Some get stuck or are content at a regional. Some got commercial for personal reasons, or for lower insurance. Some got sick or died.

I this it is false to say all 20,000 were 121 bound and had the tenacity to make it happen. If you want it, go get it.
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+1

I’m doing ATP CTP and adding an ATP checkride to my next 61.58 recurrent just for the fun of it. I have no interest in flying professionally but enjoy the training challenge so I figured why not upgrade to an ATP cert for fun.
 
RudyP said:
+1

I’m doing ATP CTP and adding an ATP checkride to my next 61.58 recurrent just for the fun of it. I have no interest in flying professionally but enjoy the training challenge so I figured why not upgrade to an ATP cert for fun.
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Just remember that the stuff you’re supposed to be learning in the CTP course is also supposed to show up on the oral.
 
Myself including quite a few people I know very well all have commercial ratings, CFI, etc. None of us work for the airlines. A couple went and realized it wasn’t for them. Some stayed part 91/135, and fee others never went anywhere with the rating.
 
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