Yeah I know but on short final, I would think that you would be more likely to see the traffic just ahead of you as your focus has narrowed. I would have thought that downwind and downwind to base would be the most dangerous as you have people flying different sized patterns, entering the downwind at different places, etc.
One of my closer calls came when I was on the 45 just about to turn right for a left downwind and another plane flew over the top of the airport towards me at pattern altitude.