NA Stock technique

Back when I was a computer programmer, I thought about stock market algorithms. If you had access to a high frequency trading (HFT) terminal on an exchange that doesn't pay commissions, the following should work:

1) Scan stocks, find the fastest rising stocks at the moment.

2) Buy equal amounts of the top five momentum stocks found in (1).

3) Scan stocks again, if the list changes, drop those no longer in top five, buy the newcomers to the top five.

4) Repeat 1-3 continuously.

5) At market close, close all positions.

6) Daily, repeat 1-5.

This is pure momentum trading. You don't care about fundamentals, or why a stock is going up or down, you are simply allowing the decisions of the market at large to determine your trades and riding the price rises it generates.

You could get caught in a stock dropping quickly or a "pump and dump", but given the millisecond speeds of HFT algorithms, your exposure would be so brief that I doubt it would hurt your overall returns much. You are always invested in stocks with positive momentum, you are never in stocks that are going down. If they are, they drop off the list in fractions of a second.
 
My strategy is quite simple. I trade mostly options. I pick my direction and put the trade on synthetically. I also trade weekly options on very liquid ETFs. It's a job :) Like everything else it has its ups and downs but I work from home 1 - 2 hours a day and it allows me to own planes so I'm good with it :)
 
I will on occasion buy stock - like USO today. I bought 2000 shares. I'll sell puts against it when it drops and sell calls against it when it bounces to lower my cost basis.
 
I did it just because of this thread. Odessa, TX this evening.
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I kind of had this thought after 9/11
I recall hearing AAL stock was crazy low. I was broke though.

I purchased 1250 shares of AMR (American Airlines) on 12/2/11 at $0.3762. I knew the airline would recover from its bankruptcy.

Management knew they'd recover too, but you don't want shareholders to cash in on that, right? So they stopped trading on symbol AMR, issued new stock under AAMRQ, and eventually AAL. There was some minor stock swaps that occurred in late 2013, but it amounted to nothing substantive.

That was waste.

Reminds me of the company that lured me back with 50K shares of stock. Then did an 80:1 reverse split and issued the management team new shares. They had my second resignation that day.
 
Reminds me of the company that lured me back with 50K shares of stock. Then did an 80:1 reverse split and issued the management team new shares. They had my second resignation that day.


That's quite sleazy. I tend to tell places to pound sand on options and pay me today. I'll put it into something top notch. Learned my lesson in dot bomb days.

All those options were worth exactly the toilet paper they and the red herring that never made it to the road show, were printed on.
 
That's quite sleazy. I tend to tell places to pound sand on options and pay me today. I'll put it into something top notch. Learned my lesson in dot bomb days.

All those options were worth exactly the toilet paper they and the red herring that never made it to the road show, were printed on.


Some people did get rich off theirs though, so it's not a complete waste...
 
The principle is to find a company that has suffered bad news, but not such bad news that it will kill the company - bad news that it is very likely to fully recover from. Buy when at nadir, chances are most will show gains.

I did this with Deepwater Horizon. Bought at the bottom and then waited long enough for long term cap gains. Looked really nice on paper, but I think I made entire hundreds of dollars after taxes, not even considering the opportunity costs of tying up the money for however many years. I'll stick with cheap index funds.
 
... I'll stick with cheap index funds.
Amen. There are decades of data that says that stock-picking in any broad sense is futile. In a narrow sense, I think that there are some nickel-dime private traders with no costs who can occasionally exploit a market inefficiency but professionals running serious money cannot.
... the following should work: ...
Hilarious! The difference between theory and practice is that in theory they are the same.

Read the signal and the noise by Nate Silver, Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb and pretty much anything by William J. Bernstein.

Re stories of success, one of my favorite new (to me) aphorisms is this: "Data is not the plural of anecdote." In any large crowd of monkeys flipping coins, one monkey will get eight heads in a row. But after that, he's still just a monkey.
 
Here is my stock purchase technique. Well, I haven't actually tried it yet but I think it has potential! This is a current, real example that you could use play-money on to see if it works for you or not.

The principle is to find a company that has suffered bad news, but not such bad news that it will kill the company - bad news that it is very likely to fully recover from. Buy when at nadir, chances are most will show gains.

Chipotle (CMG), the international restaurant chain has had some bad news lately but I think it will recover. E coli in the food, dozens ill - no deaths.
They are deep cleaning +/-50 restaurants. Like BlueBell, I think their losses will not be fatal and once clean, will reopen and confidence will return.

"Buy" some CMG when you think the worst is past and when you think there will be some gains to be had.
One of your biggest challenges will be deciding when the stock is starting back up. Buy too soon, and you might see more sliding. Too late and you lose out on some 'up'.

I have watched a few companies do this over the years and would have made $ if I'd followed this method, but didn't have the guts or spare cash at the time.




On November 21, 2015, when this post was made, Chipotle was trading at: $536 per share.

Today, Chipotle is trading at $366. Down, $170 since the OP. Or, a loss of 31.7% in the just over 12 months.
 
A lot of opportunities out there. I'd stay away from CMG. Little oversold maybe short term but I think we are heading towards 300.
 
On November 21, 2015, when this post was made, Chipotle was trading at: $536 per share.

Today, Chipotle is trading at $366. Down, $170 since the OP. Or, a loss of 31.7% in the just over 12 months.
Damn I didnt realize this was a year old - I'd STILL stay away from CMG
 
Damn I didnt realize this was a year old - I'd STILL stay away from CMG
Haha, yea they should put a zombie icon on threads over x days old when they get resurrected. :)
 
Damn I didnt realize this was a year old - I'd STILL stay away from CMG

Yeah, always fun to go back and read investment threads a year later, as most people don't follow up on their ideas.

This one was definitely a "falling knife" 12 months ago, and hasn't got better. The CEO today said they are providing a crappy customer service experience, to add to their woes.

There is a Chipotle about 1/2 mile from my office. Doesn't ever seem busy, certainly not compared to the lines out the door that they used to have around the country. I haven't spent a dime there in the last 12 months.

(As an aside, our area seems to be getting tons of "expensive lunch places" where you order at a counter, spend $10+ on lunch, and then carry your food on a tray/drink out of a disposable cup/ use plastic utensils types of places. I don't know who routinely budgets in excess of $10 for lunch, so the market seems to be limited, and would compete with the Chipotle allocated lunch budgets. The places that seem to be getting built are Zupas and Paneras, which are both a Soup-Salad-Sandwhich type of place.)
 
Yeah, always fun to go back and read investment threads a year later, as most people don't follow up on their ideas.

This one was definitely a "falling knife" 12 months ago, and hasn't got better. The CEO today said they are providing a crappy customer service experience, to add to their woes.

There is a Chipotle about 1/2 mile from my office. Doesn't ever seem busy, certainly not compared to the lines out the door that they used to have around the country. I haven't spent a dime there in the last 12 months.

(As an aside, our area seems to be getting tons of "expensive lunch places" where you order at a counter, spend $10+ on lunch, and then carry your food on a tray/drink out of a disposable cup/ use plastic utensils types of places. I don't know who routinely budgets in excess of $10 for lunch, so the market seems to be limited, and would compete with the Chipotle allocated lunch budgets. The places that seem to be getting built are Zupas and Paneras, which are both a Soup-Salad-Sandwhich type of place.)
I ate there one time a couple years ago. (one and done) I didn't see what all the fuss was about. EVERYTHING was spicy, to my kids, I tasted their stuff and I'd have to agree, although I do like hot stuff there were zero kid options. Maybe the cooks screwed up that day, dunno, haven't been back.
 
It's called thematic investing and has been around for quite a while now.
 
It's called thematic investing and has been around for quite a while now.

Buying stocks that go down has been around quite some time. Glad they found a name, thematic investing, instead of what we always called it, "****ty investing".
 
I think the idea is a good one, the trick is having the crystal ball to know when it won't be fatal.

Back in 2009 with Ford, GM, TXT, and a few other big stocks around $1-2, I had the thought of shifting some of my investments over to there. If I had my finances would be in a very good spot. But some other examples have been made where you could've made that investment and lost big time. You win some and you lose some.

Recently I've been looking more at short term gains. Looking at stocks with high dividends (those are usually fairly stable companies that are down vs. trends over the past 6-12 months and look like they have room to grow, then sell at a predetermined number. This year that's worked pretty well for me, although the first half has definitely done better than the 2nd half.

That's in my personal brokerage account, the 401(k) has limited options and I keep those in fairly stable investments. It helps to balance out my overall risk.
 
I ate at Chipotle before the "scare" and I still eat there. Never been sick due to it. I always liked the food.
 
I ate at Chipotle before the "scare" and I still eat there. Never been sick due to it. I always liked the food.


"Never been sick due to it" is an interesting standard to hold one's dining establishments to.


Any insight on the deteriorating customer experience the CEO was talking about today??

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., the burrito chain struck by a food-safety crisis last year, suffered its worst stock decline in six weeks after deteriorating customer service led management to lose faith in its 2017 forecast.

As the company works to bounce back from a widespread E. coli outbreak, it has lost its focus on the customer experience, co-CEO Steve Ells said on Tuesday. That’s slowed down lines at its restaurants and undermined one of its former strengths. Amid the problems, the company is now “nervous” about meeting guidance for next year.

“I’m not satisfied with the rate of recovery,” Ells said during a Barclays Plc investment conference in New York. “I’m particularly not satisfied with the quality of experience in some of our restaurants.”
 
"Never been sick due to it" is an interesting standard to hold one's dining establishments to.


Any insight on the deteriorating customer experience the CEO was talking about today??

I think its what you say to the street when the novelty of your concept has worn off and you're not bouncing back to pre-crisis levels. I like Chipotle as a customer but it was a little ahead of itself pre-crisis.

In other words, 9-12 months from now, you will hear the CEO of Shake Shak saying that he is not particularly satisfied with the quality of the experience in some of their restaurants...
 
I ate there occasionally before the scare and a few times afterwards. I think the quality of the food has declined. The past couple times I thought the food was too salty. I didn't find it too spicy, but I get the mild salsa. I didn't notice anything that different about the customer service. My own guess is that they expanded quickly and their QC didn't keep up.

I bought the stock very early on and made a little, but I sold it before the huge run-up. I would still be way ahead, even today.
 
On November 21, 2015, when this post was made, Chipotle was trading at: $536 per share.

Today, Chipotle is trading at $366. Down, $170 since the OP. Or, a loss of 31.7% in the just over 12 months.

Ancient history. Not even a consideration. You missed my posts 27 & 32. You have to use your head a little on these.
 
I bought 3k shares of Washington Mutual....... Right before they collapsed. Learned my lesson.
 
There is a Chipotle about 1/2 mile from my office. Doesn't ever seem busy, certainly not compared to the lines out the door that they used to have around the country. I haven't spent a dime there in the last 12 months.

(As an aside, our area seems to be getting tons of "expensive lunch places" where you order at a counter, spend $10+ on lunch, and then carry your food on a tray/drink out of a disposable cup/ use plastic utensils types of places. I don't know who routinely budgets in excess of $10 for lunch, so the market seems to be limited, and would compete with the Chipotle allocated lunch budgets. The places that seem to be getting built are Zupas and Paneras, which are both a Soup-Salad-Sandwhich type of place.)

For burritos, Qdoba offers a better product than Chipotle. Chipotle started as a little burrito place here in Denver in a building they couldn't afford to make "pretty" so they did the cheesy galvanized steel wavy stuff and stainless steel tops on homemade tables thing -- and it added something "interesting" to a hole in the wall burrito shop, but extending that to mass produced interiors of that style never did it for me. Their food was "above okay" but nothing to write home about, but when they started there weren't a lot of consistent quality grab and go burrito places. Nowadays you can't throw a rock and not hit a burrito chain of some sort.

So standard business problem. Do something kinda new and different and then get copied and one-upped. They didn't keep up and then the modern media just hammered them over the food cleanliness problem. Instant second fiddle or third fiddle and they have to DO something to win back their reputation.

I think their CEO is off base. They never had anything but fast food burritos and people assembling them cafeteria style behind a sneeze guard isn't ever going to be some sort of "fine dining" experience. I want a burrito, I want it to taste good, I want the table clean, and I want to GTFO. I don't care about any "experience". And I want it at a reasonable price tag.

Sandwiches: Another place where the copycats are kicking the original butt. Subway is hosed. Jimmy John's, Jersey Mike's, and WhichWich are all better food for the dollar. I noticed I don't have any interest in a Subway sub much anymore, but I'll go out of my way to find a Jersey Mike's. Subway is now on the bottom of the list and I'll only go in there for the $5 foot long deal if it's what I want and I want to be ultra cheap.

Fancy soup and sandwich: Happening there too. Panera holds the market for now, but Kneaders is knocking on their back door. Bakery goods at Kneaders are way more varied and more popular items like good take home bread already stocked in a rack out front and far more "dessert" type items.

Both are tasty and overpriced, but it's going to be easier to stop at a Kneaders and grab a nice loaf of bread for homemade sandwiches and oh ok, while we are here, I'll eat something too...

The also-ran in that category is Einstein Brothers. Still too much of a bagel shop, but if you want Lox and Bagel and don't have a Jewish deli anywhere nearby, the others won't have that. Not done right anyway.

The other growing sleeper in the lunch market is Tokyo Joe's. They're serving really good food and holy hell, real veggies, for a reasonable price.

Panda Express is kinda their only competition, and they have good offerings which aren't nearly as healthy, so they're not going anywhere -- they're the junk food version of TJ and doing fine. Plus who can't resist Orange Chicken? ;)

Watch for Torchy's Tacos coming to a strip mall near you. The "upscale taco" is going to take off. And they're hella good. Not cheap but way better than most taco chains.

And of all crazy things, Chilis seems to have recovered from total mediocrity and worked their butts off on their menu -- and lowered prices or held seafood stuff steady during tough times. They're a great casual dining value these days.

Darden can't seem to get out of their own way and execute -- but after a LOT of failed restaurant brands, Brinker finally learned to focus on Chilis and Maggianos.

Back in 2009 with Ford, GM, TXT, and a few other big stocks around $1-2, I had the thought of shifting some of my investments over to there. If I had my finances would be in a very good spot.

I wanted Ford so bad back then and didn't have the free cash to do it. They were nearly guaranteed a comeback, even before they announced that they didn't take bailout money willingly.

They were missing on their diesel trucks but would eventually fix it, and starting to hit big on compact bubble cars and were investing to dump the boxy old stuff. They really executed well.

GM STILL hasn't got a new design any newer than their pre-bailout stuff. They keep making the same cars they always made. Ford is soundly kicking their ass. Oh look, another Yukon rolled off the GM line. Yay. I already have one of those and it's 12 years old and nothing of significance has changed. Ford both managed their money properly and took reasonable risks. EcoBoost is still a little risky but in general, it's a hit. (Still have the fouling issues in the intake manifolds and no engineering approved way to clean them without damaging the turbo...)

In fact, if you look at even the Japanese makers, nothing revolutionary is going on in their stuff. Today's Carolla and Tacoma follow tried and true formulas that haven't changed much in over a decade.

Oh well. Water way way under the bridge. Would have loved to have owned some "F" though. It was very clear they were the only big manufacturer that was trying new things where new was warranted, and keeping old things that did the job flawlessly.

They didn't just sit back and keep releasing the same old stuff.
 
I'm out of all of my equities as of this AM. This market is too risky for me right now. I can't see how it can go much further without a pull back. I've never seen stocks so high priced, pushing through nearly every 52wk high. It's only a matter of time, it HAS to take a breather because this type of trading activity is very unusual. Once it sells off a bit I'll be more inclined to buy, until then I'm bearish.
 
I'm out of all of my equities as of this AM. This market is too risky for me right now. I can't see how it can go much further without a pull back. I've never seen stocks so high priced, pushing through nearly every 52wk high. It's only a matter of time, it HAS to take a breather because this type of trading activity is very unusual. Once it sells off a bit I'll be more inclined to buy, until then I'm bearish.

Too many academic studies have shown that people who try and time in and out of the market severely under perform the market over time.

Right now the alternatives to equities are cash, which will get you a 0.00001% yield, or so it seems, or bonds, which with the interest rate hikes will be getting you negative returns. Interestingly enough, the increase in equities since you got out this morning is somewhere between 0.18% and 0.37%, depending on which index one uses. Your cash position will take you 6 months to earn what you would have made in 6 hours today.

Good luck on timing, hope you don't miss the good days...
 
Too many academic studies have shown that people who try and time in and out of the market severely under perform the market over time.

Right now the alternatives to equities are cash, which will get you a 0.00001% yield, or so it seems, or bonds, which with the interest rate hikes will be getting you negative returns. Interestingly enough, the increase in equities since you got out this morning is somewhere between 0.18% and 0.37%, depending on which index one uses. Your cash position will take you 6 months to earn what you would have made in 6 hours today.

Good luck on timing, hope you don't miss the good days...
I wasn't holding any long term investment funds, just short term stocks, I took the gains I made, so actually it didn't hurt me to make these moves.There's always another day.
 
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Too many academic studies have shown that people who try and time in and out of the market severely under perform the market over time.

Right now the alternatives to equities are cash, which will get you a 0.00001% yield, or so it seems, or bonds, which with the interest rate hikes will be getting you negative returns. Interestingly enough, the increase in equities since you got out this morning is somewhere between 0.18% and 0.37%, depending on which index one uses. Your cash position will take you 6 months to earn what you would have made in 6 hours today.

Good luck on timing, hope you don't miss the good days...

This. We have a nice long term view for our stuff though, so we're just leaving the majority in reasonable "growth" equities for now.

About the only change I'm making immediately is getting out of REITs and we didn't have much left in those anyway. Real estate looks to have significant systematic headwinds coming. Especially if inflation takes off and pricing levels out or falls again.

Yay. New administrations. "Re-balancing" season. Oh joy. Roll the dice and take your chances in the casino. :)
 
We have a nice long term view for our stuff though, so we're just leaving the majority in reasonable "growth" equities for now.
If you're in it for the long term, I think you're making the right choice by leaving it alone.

For me, who has mostly been doing day trading, I didn't see the risk in hanging on to them. The trading history over the past month has without a doubt been abnormal and a sell off has to be in the near future. I'll be surprised if it isn't. In the short term, it just wasn't worth it to me.
 
If you're in it for the long term, I think you're making the right choice by leaving it alone.

For me, who has mostly been doing day trading, I didn't see the risk in hanging on to them. The trading history over the past month has without a doubt been abnormal and a sell off has to be in the near future. I'll be surprised if it isn't. In the short term, it just wasn't worth it to me.

Yeah day trading I agree with you but not sure what sort of news will pop the bubble for a while. Probably some idiots going to war somewhere.
 
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