Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
I got news for you. We're all going to die. Some of us aren't going to stop living until we actually die. Feel free to live long and do nothing with that life if that's what you choose.
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Half Fast
Touchdown! Greaser!
Sorry to break your perfect record, but you know me and I personally know:
1) A coworker who had it, now recovered.
2) A friend from church who fought it for 4 months, now recovered but still has lung problems.
3) A former bandmate's wife who died from it.
4) My son's friend who had it, now recovered.
5) A friend's mother (in her 90s) who has it, is in a nursing home, and will likely pass away soon.
2) A friend from church who fought it for 4 months, now recovered but still has lung problems.
3) A former bandmate's wife who died from it.
4) My son's friend who had it, now recovered.
5) A friend's mother (in her 90s) who has it, is in a nursing home, and will likely pass away soon.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
Ok. But you're reaching for a couple of those. They are two places removed from you. In other words, you know someone who know's someone. So that means, I know someone that knows someone that knows someone...... But, you're right, I'm only two stages removed now, after 4 months...... And somehow, miraculously, you know all those people and haven't fallen over dead yet. Apparently, you're luckier than me.
Kenny Phillips
Final Approach
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Kenny Phillips
And as I reported previously on this channel, one of those old couples that died in the same hospital but separated was my cousin and her husband. Yes, they were old, but so am I. You have the right to do darned near anything you want that doesn't endanger the lives of others.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
My driving my car endangers far more people than covid does. Not gonna give that up either. Doubt you have either.
*edited to remove what could be perceived as a political statement*
Half Fast
Touchdown! Greaser!
No, I know each and every one of those personally. For example, my son's friend has been part of multiple family activities over the years, and we've associated with his parents and our families have been friends. I knew my other friend's wife from band rehearsals, performances, etc., that she attended. I know my other friend's mother from years past, but she now has dementia and I haven't seen her for a couple of years.
If I stretched to knowing someone who knows someone, the list would be much longer.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
got it
Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
I got news for you- people don't appreciate dying because you choose to be selfish. Talk about a Karen!
All of the other "advanced" countries have this under control. We needed only follow their lead and we would be pretty much done with it by now, and everyone would be able to get on with their life and do as they please again. People during WW2 had to do more, even on the home front, then we would have. All we needed to do was sit on our butts and wear a mask for a few weeks, and a sizable minority of us couldn't even do that!
You sound like the people who complained of needing to do a black-out during WW2. The freedom to have lights on kill so many of our sailors because our ships were silhouetted against the glow from our cities at night.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
I don't think I'd be making comparisons to WWII if I were you. Jack boots come to mind.
bnt83
Final Approach
Define under control. The testing data is basically meaningless IMHO. Go straight to the hospital admission numbers and the panic seems unrealistic if not flat out inflated. (Gross numbers 30k positive tests in NE and 11 people hospitalized at Bryan, two on vents at Bryan)
I've spent 10 days in the ICU before, had amputation on every limb. I have no spleen. I have been to work since this started, exposed to hundreds per day. Are my genetics going to do well or not? I have no idea. I refuse to cower in the corner. If that's what people chose to do, I will not look down on them, that's their choice... but clearly grocery store clerks have bigger balls...
In about 6 months those who aren't already working are going to face termination or going back to work. I've faced that already after discharge from the ICU. The circumstances will be different but the choice will be the same. Some will still be paralyzed with fear when they make it.
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Half Fast
Touchdown! Greaser!
Really?!
Take a look at the data compiled by Johns Hopkins. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality I believe you'll see that the US numbers for fatalities versus cases is lower than many advanced countries. You'll also see that number of cases per 100,000 population is comparable with advanced countries.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
OMG! .052% chance of dying!!!!!! Think of the children!
Imagine not having surgery because of a 99.948% survivability rate. Better stay home and go on unemployment.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
Need more thumbs up
bnt83
Final Approach
I've cheated death so many times I mean people die from anesthesia. One time in postop I thought I was gonna die from constipation.
Its crazy, they saved my life in the ICU and I was pretty sure I was gonna die in the Burn Unit because I was so sick. I vomited everything I tried to eat, bleeding everywhere including lungs. All the while removing the gangrene. It was insane.
Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
You'll also see they have very few new cases, they can go out and do things again. There are Rhine cruises again, Mediterranean cruises from European ports again. They can live again.
Well, what other kind of boots would I wear?
Again, people nominally on our side wanted the freedom to leave their lights on, and that let U-boats see our ships very easily and sink them. You are acting in the same spirit as those people who left their lights on.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
The fact that I didn't know this means we haven't flown together in too long. We need to get together.
If you wear two masks, I won't have to wear one.
Half Fast
Touchdown! Greaser!
The fact that I didn't know this means we haven't flown together in too long. We need to get together.
If you wear two masks, I won't have to wear one.
Agreed! Want to ferry me to look at another airplane?
And I promise to wear two masks - one around each elbow.
Palmpilot
Touchdown! Greaser!
I'm not seeing that at all. If you scroll down to the table and sort by the relevant columns, I count 158 countries that have lower deaths per 100,000 population, and only ten that have lower numbers than we do. And I see more advanced countries below us than above us.
We are, however, quite a bit farther down when sorting on the case fatality rate.
Unfortunately, the page at that link doesn't tell us who is CURRENTLY doing better, because it is displaying total data since the beginning of the pandemic, not the rates of new cases and new deaths. That's what we really need in order to see who has the situation under better control.
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Bob Noel
And looking at new cases and new deaths doesn't really tell the whole story.
I'd love to see data on the number of people who test positive but never get sick. I'd love to see data on the number of people with COVID-19 as the cause of death (not just a "covid-19-related death"). I'd love to see data on how infectious someone is when they are asymptomatic, vs someone presymptomatic, vs someone actually sick, vs someone postsymptomatic.
But, that kind of information is not easy to collect nor is it sexy for the "journalists" to report.
Palmpilot
Touchdown! Greaser!
Three points:
1. That number is WITH the patchwork of restrictions that we have had in place. It doesn't tell us what the numbers would have been without the restrictions.
2. The current total death percentage doesn't tell you your risk of dying going forward, because the pandemic is not over.
3. The death numbers don't tell us how many SURVIVORS are suffering serious long-term health consequences from covid-19.
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Bob Noel
ok, so how many?
compare and contrast with how many survivors of other diseases suffer serious long-term health consequences.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
1. That number is WITH the patchwork of restrictions that we have had in place. It doesn't tell us what the numbers would have been without the restrictions.
First, the argument was that America was stupid and we're causing the death rate to be huge. That's what my post was responding to. Now, the argument flips a 180 and is "look how great the restrictions were". Don't see any logic issues there?
2. The current total death percentage doesn't tell you your risk of dying going forward, because the pandemic is not over.
True. But, after 6 months, it's a reasonable metric to gauge the relative risk.
3. The death numbers don't tell us how many SURVIVORS are suffering serious long-term health consequences from covid-19
Again true. Neither do they tell us how many of us already had it and had zero consequences from it and never will.
First, the argument was that America was stupid and we're causing the death rate to be huge. That's what my post was responding to. Now, the argument flips a 180 and is "look how great the restrictions were". Don't see any logic issues there?
2. The current total death percentage doesn't tell you your risk of dying going forward, because the pandemic is not over.
True. But, after 6 months, it's a reasonable metric to gauge the relative risk.
3. The death numbers don't tell us how many SURVIVORS are suffering serious long-term health consequences from covid-19
Again true. Neither do they tell us how many of us already had it and had zero consequences from it and never will.
GaryM
Pattern Altitude
While not germane to the argument, as an avid wreck diver I've visited a number of wartime wrecks off the coast of NJ, torpedoed as their blacked-out silhouettes passed in front of the brightly-lit Jersey shore (the blackout wasn't imposed until some time after the war began). The U-boat commanders not only took advantage of the lights on shore, some would also hide during the day by settling on the bottom next to the pre-war wreck of the freighter Mohawk. It was on the navigational charts as a submerged hazard, so US sonar searches ignored it. Once the ruse was figured out, the Mohawk was blown apart and cable dragged until it was nearly flat on the bottom.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
That's more interesting than the original conversation.
Half Fast
Touchdown! Greaser!
I've been away from diving for a few years (need to get back to it soon), but I always enjoyed wrecks and caves. I never made it up to the NJ area, but I did some trips to dive wrecks off Morehead City, NC. It's pretty cool to dive historical wrecks and research them, as opposed to the "artificial reef" wrecks that were deliberately sunken for fishermen and divers.
NHWannabe
Line Up and Wait
What the numbers would have been? Interesting thread about how the "predictions" were made and how they ignored the data npot being consistent with the real world experience of the Diamond Princess passengers.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/...isgLjze36Lh-bkkpjvbECwjInccWkNJhBpfKrZ_z4SLDs
NoHeat
En-Route
Here’s a list of quarantine rules, for each state. Some are requirements, others are recommendations.
https://www.aarp.org/travel/travel-tips/safety/info-2020/state-quarantine-guide.html
https://www.aarp.org/travel/travel-tips/safety/info-2020/state-quarantine-guide.html
Palmpilot
Touchdown! Greaser!
Palmpilot
Touchdown! Greaser!
I didn't say the death rate was huge, and I didn't say "look how great the restrictions were." I'm saying we don't know what the number of deaths would have been without the restrictions. Do you disagree with that statement?
Half Fast
Touchdown! Greaser!
It would also be interesting to know how much deaths from other sources might be down during this same period. For example, deaths from the ordinary flu during the 2019-2020 flu season were down by about 12,000 from the prior season. Are automobile deaths down, with people doing less commuting and traveling?
The whole picture is very complex, and numbers can be represented in a variety of ways, many of which do not account for other pertinent data. When looking at numbers of COVID cases by country, even per capita data isn't sufficient. If a country has large segments of its population concentrated in major cities (like the US), I would expect the cases per 100,000 to be higher than in a country with fewer dense population centers and people more widely dispersed.
Salty
Touchdown! Greaser!
No, but the statement ignored the context in which I made my statement.
Daleandee
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Dale Andee
During a seminar on vector-borne diseases Dr. Jerome Goddard made the point that there are some things in this world that we cannot kill. Vector diseases kill about 700K every year but most of that is in tropical regions.
In the U.S., West Nile virus is the leading cause of mosquito vectored disease that kills about 1 in every 150 people that it infects. No one is raging about this even though there is no treatment or vaccine.
I have seen the effects of Covid-19 both near and far. It's here and something that we are going to have to live with and manage. Personally, I don't believe hiding is the answer. There are steps that one can take to keep themselves safe, and they work. Personally I'm convinced there are methods that are known to work that are being suppressed but I don't want to venture in to any conspiricy theories.
But as Dr. Goddard noted about West Nile killing 1 in every 150 that gets it; "that's really not bad, unless you're the one."
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Daleandee
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Dale Andee
I mentioned in another thread that I'm currently on a separation order because of a "possible exposure" to Covid-19. The Lord is gracious to me because if I have it there is absolutely no indication of it. Not a single symptom ... none, zip, zilch, nada!
Admittedly I use some uncommon methods to fend off the catching and/or keeping of such things but I won't get into any of that on a public forum.
wsuffa
Touchdown! Greaser!
There is, of course, another perspective.
I lost my mom just as the lockdowns were starting. She had been in assisted living and took a fall which progressive lead to her death. Assisted living > hospital > hospice > cemetery. I literally was entering the assisted living facility to get clothes from her apartment for potential rehab and then hospice as they locked down (and have not reopened).
We got a special waiver to see her in hospice only because restrictions had just been out into place and were lucky to be with her less than 12 hours before she passed. Only one of her three sons were allowed to see her in the hospital 3 days before we lost her.
Had the fall happened even a couple of days later we would not have been able to see here before she passed. Had it happened now, we would not have seen her for 4 months to say last goodbyes. And that would not have been "short period" - it would have been "forever". I know some folks that were unable to see their loved ones at the end due to ill-constructed orders and regulations. And that's not right. There are ways to allow visitation without imperiling everyone in the facility - it's done for facility workers and health care workers. There was one case made public that a daughter took a job as a food service worker at a facility so she could see her mom.
So, no, we're not talking "short term" in all cases. It's a matter of perspective.
AKiss20
Line Up and Wait
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/au...t-month-drivers-take-advantage-empty-n1234651
No actually, they are up because while there are many fewer people on the roads, people seem to feel they can/should be pushing their car as fast as it can go.
Sac Arrow
Touchdown! Greaser!
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Snorting his way across the USA
Bingo.
Morgan3820
En-Route
An expert built the Titanic. You can find an expert to say anything.
And is your Authority the one writing the book?
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Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
Here we go...don't trust the experts they are always wrongAn expert built the Titanic. You can find an expert to say anything.
And is your Authority the one writing the book?
A true expert is right most of the time. When they are wrong, they find out why their experience led them astray and make corrections. The experts who designed the Titanic sure learned about ship design. So, who will you trust now to build you a ship? Some dude off PoA here, or an expert who who has learned the mistakes from past designers and their own experience?
A real expert is one who is generally correct, or they really aren't an expert, are they?
Palmpilot
Touchdown! Greaser!
So the fact that experts are sometimes wrong means that ignoring experts is a good bet?An expert built the Titanic. You can find an expert to say anything.
And is your Authority the one writing the book?
Morgan3820
En-Route
Here we go...don't trust the experts they are always wrong
A true expert is right most of the time. When they are wrong, they find out why their experience led them astray and make corrections. The experts who designed the Titanic sure learned about ship design. So, who will you trust now to build you a ship? Some dude off PoA here, or an expert who who has learned the mistakes from past designers and their own experience?
A real expert is one who is generally correct, or they really aren't an expert, are they?
Exactly, so which expert is expert? Will the real expert please stand up?
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