Long IFR / IMC trip

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DeckardTrinity

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DeckardTrinity
Here in the eastern U.S. we've had several days of soupy weather, with the forecast for the next two days to be more of the same. Ceilings from NJ to PA to VA are around 500 - 800' overcast, but with decent visibilities (P6SM in most cases). There is a pocket of LIFR hovering over central VA down through northeastern NC.

I've been looking at this weather all week, simulating many "go no/go" decisions, trying to judge whether or not I'd go (on a leg from, say, TEB to SHD), and I have to say, I wouldn't feel comfortable going today. I think the biggest fear for me is the following:

1. File to a legal airport and an alternate with appropriate reserves (and in my case I typically budget an extra hour, not 45 minutes).
2. Arrive at first airport, shoot approach, go missed due to lower than expected ceiling or poor vis.
3. Divert to alternate, and have the same outcome.
4. Now stuck, so start praying I can find some actual MVFR or VFR within the next hour!

I know we're supposed to be able to rely somewhat on METARs, and I have Foreflight + Stratus 2 in the cockpit in the club 172SP I fly. I also have autopilot and an HSI, but did experience a lost LOC signal on an approach last year (which was probably due to static buildup, as comms also got crackly during the approach - this has supposedly been addressed by replacing a missing static wick on the right wing during the last annual).

My question is - is it prudent to plan a long IFR flight over an area where the METARs are reporting widespread IFR, with occasional MVFR and pockets of LIFR?
 
Depends what your comfortable with. Look at the TAFs to see what is forecast,see if that fits your personal minimums. Also on that route ,check the icing level ,in case the warm front doesn't get where it is supposed to. Don't be afraid to talk to ATC if the weather starts to deteriorate. They can be very helpful.
 
If you primary or alternate has a precision approach, it's got to be a pretty dodgy day for both the primary and alternate to be unusable. I have flown on more days than I can count where an alternate was required in terms of filing the flight plan, but given the presence of a precision approach at either airport, you're likely to be ok on most days.

I've also not seen many cases where the weather was below precision minimums over a wide area (effectively shutting down arrivals at a large number of GA airports).

I suspect you're being overly pessimistic with the planning. There is no requirement to have a VFR or MVFR 'out'. You just need an out that is going to work. MVFR/VFR are lovely to have, don't get me wrong, and it's smart to know where that weather is, but don't be afraid to have IMC and the primary and alternates, particularly if precision approaches are available.
 
I think for me my comfort level is definitely not there for the "sea of red" IFR dots on the maps, but I know I could shoot any of those approaches in the sim no problem.

I just ran across a blog where a ~800 hr IFR pilot purposely plotted a course of around 1000nm all up and down the east coast with the intent of shooting around 15 approaches of all types - ILS, LOC, GPS, LDA, etc during a similar soupy weather system. I wouldn't mind doing that at all - especially if I topped off after every landing!
 
Make your alternate to the west, ( KEKN ). Forecast and current conditions are pretty nice. edit: or maybe ( W99 )
 
I'm a bit of a weenie, but that's just me. I don't like flying somewhere unless ceiling is forecast to be >800 ft. I also don't like flying in areas where thunderstorms might pop up. Make sure you have plenty of fuel just in case you need to divert.
 
DeckardTrinity,

I think you've identified your issue. You're not comfortable flying to published minimums. That would be something to work towards and should fix the issue you originally described in the process.

I've been simming for the past 33 years (pretty much non-stop). It was later in life that I actually moved to full size flying and eventually, IFR. The only real difference I see between approaches in the sim and approaches in real life is that most people don't configure their sims with the appropriate wind shifts that occur in real life when you transition from 3000ft down to the surface. Crosswind components are constantly changing, which requires a change in the heading to be flown to make it all work.

If you fly a slower aircraft, the change in heading is even more pronounced.

As a result, in the sim, I tend to 'fly the needles' and it all works out (assuming relatively static weather). In the airplane, I tend to fly with the DTK, TRK and XTK fields on the GPS to compare where I'm going right now, with where I should be going, and how far I am (laterally) from the course to be flown. I then back that up (constantly) with the needles.

The vertical profile largely takes care of itself (changes in headwinds notwithstanding).

Other than that small difference, the sim and real life are just about the same (particularly if you have your sim set up with a decent ATC system).

If you can get yourself flying down to minimums with comfort in real life, you'll find that your IFR ticket takes on a new level of utility.
 
Understand what is causing the weather and you will answer your own question.

Stalled warm front - further south makes sense. Occulded front may result in widespread low ceilings but the viz may not be so bad.

Thunderstorms? Can you get above the low haze and avoid them visually?

The problem in April is that its still winter at 6000'. So you get ice unless you are traveling south across a warm front and have warm air above you. Again - you can tell that if you know what the local weather is being caused by.

The other thing is as you go south the ceiling come up when it starts to rain - you often have low ceilings in the polar air to the north when its raining but down south you can see 3000' ceilings in rain falling from nimbostratus.

Overall, the issue is temps aloft. The other issue is that as you start flying more IFR you will completely understand that it is generally not a uniform grey sludge all the way to the flight levels. There are breaks and layers and precip in groups - and while that does not help with it being IFR on the ground, aloft you often can see outside the window. . . . you'll get all sorts of visual illusions as to the true horizon -but you will be able to see.

I can't tell you how many times I've been between 6 and 10,000 and had a hard deck below me - and mostly clear aloft . . . those are the nice IFR days.

To answer your question - your alternate - if possible - needs to be a Class D, C or B airport [there are plenty of them in the east] with airline service that you can reach - because they'll have an ILS, a manned tower, good weather reporting and long runways. You get stuck - and I mean really stuck - you declare an emergency - ride the ILS down and then descend over the runway to the ground if you have to. . . . so long as you are legal off the ground - the fact that the airports are completely socked in when you get there is technically not your fault.

PS: thats why you need ADS-B on board and a display device. You'll be getting weather - and can tell if you are flying into a disaster waiting to happen - and can find a VFR airport much easier - remembering that VFR is 1000' ceiling and 3 sm viz. . .
 
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Thanks for the advice everyone! I did have a really good experience with IMC back in November flying down the coast from NJ to Myrtle Beach, SC. Fighting a headwind the entire way, I had to stop off at (I believe the name is) Martin County airport in NC to top off. MVFR ceilings pretty much the whole way (1500 - 2000 ft), but aloft at 4 - 6000 feet it was beautiful being between the layers, in and out of occasional mist. So flying through the clouds for me is not really a concern. Ended up shooting the GPS approach into the airport with no problems, broke out right at the altitude the ASOS was saying and picked up the runway 6 or so miles ahead.

I'm definitely going to take a conservative approach to my personal minimums for now, until I get a few more approaches in actual under my belt. I'm right around 300 hours total, about 25 hours in actual, but have only been flying for the last 1.5 years after an 8 year hiatus. I figure on my next trip, if I see this type of weather forecast a few days out, I'll just head back early. If it doesn't look like it will be as widespread, with enough MVFR areas (and just isolated t-storms), I don't mind rerouting and landing a couple extra times. I'm planning on heading down to GVL this weekend, via ROA (my usual route from NJ), and Saturday is forecast to be beautiful, so it's really just the return that I'll be focusing on (only have the plane scheduled for a week total).
 
DeckardTrinity said:
......I'm definitely going to take a conservative approach to my personal minimums for now, until I get a few more approaches in actual under my belt.
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Always a safe bet. Until you're in the clag and comfortable down to minimums why push it. Sounds like you're thinking along the correct track.

I flew down to Jupiter florida this past thanksgiving. I was dealing with headwinds and moderate to heavy rain. I will admit I was on my game and felt great, but the eyes get tired and so does the body. I called it a day diverted and lived to fly another day. Made the final hop across Georgia and down the coast to Jupiter F45 the next morning.

Today, I wouldn't even think about launching into that weather. I haven't flown any real IFR since that flight, just climbed or descended through a layer here or there. It will be a slow process getting back on my A game.
 
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When there's a fair bit of LIFR in an area I personally would want to have an 'escape hatch' so to speak if conditions get worse or you have to divert to an alternate. The SIG WX prognosis charts are helpful here (those ones where they draw the large areas of IFR (red) and MVFR (blue squiggly)). If you can head a particular direction and be pretty sure you can find an airport with MVFR or better then that can help ease your mind about going up in low conditions.

To me that factors more into personal minimums than a particular number relating to ceiling height or visibility. You could be great at shooting approaches to minimums but if suddenly the entire area which was forecast to be 500' ceilings is now 100' ceilings then you have to be able to go somewhere...
 
frfly172 said:
Depends what your comfortable with. Look at the TAFs to see what is forecast,see if that fits your personal minimums. Also on that route ,check the icing level ,in case the warm front doesn't get where it is supposed to. Don't be afraid to talk to ATC if the weather starts to deteriorate. They can be very helpful.
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This. I flew from FRG to RIC IFR andmost of it was in the soup. It all depends on wht you are comfortable with.
 
in your proposed situation with good a good load of fuel i would pay more attention to icing and t storms. but, i am comfortable going down to mins. if weather is that bad flying into bigger towered airports with high intensity approach light systems definitely makes life easier. at such airports it's almost a given that a 200 ft you will have the runway enviroment in sight.
 
I set SOP minimums for my flights. Im a business guy who flies 150 hrs per year with 1000 hrs with 700 in a PA46 and I have set the following minimums. I do not leave if predicted ceilings are less than 1000 if I have passengers or less than 500 if I do not. That said I am comfortable shooting to minimums if I have to but I try not to limit my choices once in the air.
 
rbridges said:
I'm a bit of a weenie, but that's just me. I don't like flying somewhere unless ceiling is forecast to be >800 ft. I also don't like flying in areas where thunderstorms might pop up. Make sure you have plenty of fuel just in case you need to divert.
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Being a weenie is good for ones health and happiness. I highly recommend it.

Jepp in mind that those who claim their personal planning minimums are the approach minimums may have to go to an alternate.
 
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