Lindberg
Final Approach
I wasn't referring to you, but for some reason you thought I was. Hmm. It's the Internet, so for all I know you're a dog, but according to your own statement, your involvement was in the past.
Joby operational demo flights
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Ed Haywood
Final Approach
@StraightnLevel
Fair.
IMO nothing that flies will ever be a viable daily commute, because of weather limitations.
As I see it, UAM is initially viable as an extension of the public transport network for business travelers and tourists. That market is relatively price inelastic, because of the value of time and convenience.
I can see a couple dozen of the things shuttling people from Orlando Airport to Disney hotels at a couple hundred bucks a seat. Likewise for Newark to Manhattan, SFO to Palo Alto, LAX to Hollywood, etc etc.
In that context the added energy cost is negated by the economic value of time, just like it is for airline travel.
Fair.
IMO nothing that flies will ever be a viable daily commute, because of weather limitations.
As I see it, UAM is initially viable as an extension of the public transport network for business travelers and tourists. That market is relatively price inelastic, because of the value of time and convenience.
I can see a couple dozen of the things shuttling people from Orlando Airport to Disney hotels at a couple hundred bucks a seat. Likewise for Newark to Manhattan, SFO to Palo Alto, LAX to Hollywood, etc etc.
In that context the added energy cost is negated by the economic value of time, just like it is for airline travel.
To Ed's point, nowhere did I mention daily commute or even replacing the existing ground transport system. So lets stick to what I actually post.
Now, will people use eVTOLs to commute? Sure, and that is evident in the numerous UAM studies and research projects performed across various large cities here and overseas. And the public's main concerns about using eVTOLs were safety, noise, accessibility, and cost. So, basically, the end user has defined the parameters that the private/public providers must meet to be successful.
But the one thing you continuously miss in my posts is the ground transport system you reference has a finite capacity and growth limit. And the concerns city planners had 50 years ago about those limitations has become a reality in various locations which is the real driver behind eVTOLs.
While your energy vs cost calculations do have merit, they become moot when that ground transport system hits 100% capacity/growth and an alternate means of transport is needed to relieve and expand on that existing ground-based system.
So based on that scenario, what alternate transportation mode do you see as most viable based on your energy vs cost calculations for a densely populated urban environment?
StraightnLevel
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None of the above. When commute costs exceed the value of the employment, other options come into play.
1) Remote work
2) Move to the suburbs
3) Return to rural living
StraightnLevel
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Indeed - that's part of the reason that I have my Bonanza.
BUT: The number of people whose time value exceeds the added marginal cost of short-range air travel is an exceedingly small portion of the total population.
Plenty of people will pay $800 for a coach ticket to go to Paris once every 5 years. $200 to go across town? Not so many.
I've seen so many different articles about Joby (and the other eVTOL-flavored companies out there). I feel like I haven't seen any real dispassionate analysis of their business plan, and of the performance of their aircraft.
Things like: Range. Range with required reserves. Projected reliability. Crash survivability, etc.
Also, what their real path to certification looks like. So many projections of having it certified in "3-4 years," that are constantly moved out year over year.
I would love the technology to match what they say in the press, but I never see any real analysis.
Things like: Range. Range with required reserves. Projected reliability. Crash survivability, etc.
Also, what their real path to certification looks like. So many projections of having it certified in "3-4 years," that are constantly moved out year over year.
I would love the technology to match what they say in the press, but I never see any real analysis.
Except more people want to move to the city. There has been a constant migration to urban centers since the 1950s. They're leaving the rural areas globally. It even has a technical name: urbanization.
However, the price structure being thrown around here is not the same for high volume/short leg ops like these eVTOLs will attain. Typically, you’ll calculate a cost per road mile which takes the hourly DOC rate and adjusts it for speed and distance over a route. Even some helicopter ops have been calculated in this manner. For example, a typical 4-5 place helicopter is around $3.00-$4.00 per mile excluding pilot salaries, hangar costs, and profit. Its this mile cost that will set the eVTOL rates similar to car services and cabs.
And given the marked differences between helicopters and eVTOLs, the aircraft cost side should end up <$1.00 per mile. So when you address all those differences, being close to an Uber Black rate is not that far off with the required flight volume.
Most of that current info is still proprietary, however, there are some dated figures out there on some of the UAM and eVTOL websites and the OEM sites. All the current info will probably be released once they complete certification this year or by the time they start the Part 135 proving runs by 2028.
The Joby and Archer are being certified under a Part 21.17 Special Class process as shown below. Guidance has also been developed for future applicants via a new AC linked below. And once the Joby and Archer receive their TC, its my understanding a new FAR Part for Powered-Lift Aircraft certification will eventually be released. Then you have Part 194 that addresses other powered-lift requirements. The EASA has a similar process.
Joby Cert Rules
Archer Cert Rules
AC 21.17-4
The only change to the certification timeline I’m aware of is when the FAA decided to change the process mid-stream in 2020-2022 to match the EASA. So it moved from 2025-2026 to 2027-2028. Both Joby and Archer are currently at different stages of Phase 5 with Joby to start the FAA TIA test flights later this year which is one of the final steps to its TC.
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
If I was an investor, I'd certainly want to see such things. But as an enthusiast, I don't much care.
I look at eVTOL like airplanes in 1914. Any pro forma is going to be imaginary numbers, and any performance metric is going to be rapidly obsolete. The important thing is to get them into the wild, see what they can do, and start figuring out how to use them. The market will sort itself out.
JVerb
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You don't get it.
The traveling public don't calculate their costs in a per mile basis. They look at how much the bottom dollar price is. I currently live in one of the wealthiest zip codes in Texas, and about 50 miles from IAH. These are the target audience for EVTOL commutes to the airport; top 5% incomes, lots of expendable play money, etc. Fly over top of the insane traffic that can make that 50 miles turn into an hour and a half commute. Yet what the economics of EVTOL fails to understand is its not competing with driving themselves on a per-mile basis; you're competing verses the price of driving and parking overnight ($25/night at Houston Airports). So for a week vacation, you're talking $125 in parking, verses trying to convince a family of 4 to pay an Uber Black rate ($241 on the app just now) per person one way to get to the airport. Spending nearly $1000 one-way ($2000 round trip) to save 1 hour and $125 in parking fees is a losing business plan. We have people on the neighborhood Facebook page constantly asking about commute / car pooling to the airport, because they don't want to spend $100 for an Uber. They sure as hell aren't spending $2k on top of their airplane tickets and vacation.
That's why EVTOL HAS to have a better business plan than urban air mobility. That one is a failing plan. It needs to be able to be that short-hop replacement for flights from smaller, regional airports to the hubs, up to 50-100 miles, be sold as part of the overall flight/trip package instead of on-demand through an app. It needs to be able to provide rapid 911 response. It needs to be better than helicopters for local police and local news tracking. It really needs a military component to continue funding innovation and sales. Without those, these really cool aircraft will disappear as fast as they came, with a bunch of patents and lost venture capital dollars in the process. I hope they can get the economics figured out, I really do, because I see a lot of potential to the aircraft. I am cautiously optimistic on their success, with a heavy pessimism to the "uber of the sky" model. I wouldn't invest in any company that thinks they'll make money off that model.
Lindberg
Final Approach
I guess they won't be doing a pilot program in The Woodlands, where time is worth nothing.
What I dont get is why you need to mis-quote me? 2nd time in this thread. Nowhere did I comment on the "traveling public" point of view. Again, lets stick to what I actually state, please.
Except without UAM and its public side, no private business plan will ever achieve the flight volumes necessary to make it work. That was proven in the '65-'77 timeframe in NYC with the exact same target markets you mentioned above. Nor will the military get you there either mainly because they are more interested in the autonomous side and will not produce the flight volumes to grow the fleet.
eVTOLs were designed to do one thing, pick up people at street level in a city center and transport them to other points. They were not designed to replace helicopters so a Houston soccer mom and her family could catch a flight to Disney World. Now will the first 10 years of ops following the UAM public model be easy? No, it will be horrendous financially speaking, but it will be the necessary evil to get the flight volumes to a point where the numbers start to balance out.
And its this gamble on the UAM/eVTOL model that drew the heavy investment from non-aviation companies just as they did during the last aviation innovative period 25-30 years ago. Regardless, we’re in the final stretch, and soon we'll be able to see first hand which dirction this will actually take.
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Ed Haywood
Final Approach
If only the major players were pursuing other sources of revenue.
Joby Completes Landmark U.S. Defense Exercise with Autonomous Flight Technology
ir.jobyaviation.com
JVerb
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I'm not misquoting you. You made a comment that evtol price would be similar to cabs/other transportation on a $/mile basis. And my rebuttal is, the average public doesn't give two ****s about $/mile. They care about overall price. And if you don't realize it's the traveling public that will be using these, in theory, then I don't know what to tell 'ya. You've missed the forest for the trees.
As for your affirmation evtols are invented for only one thing, picking up at street level blah blah, then you clearly aren't following the evtol industry evolution, either. They have already given up on that potential model, because the reality of recharging stations, rotorcraft pads, and customer queuing are all required for operations. Joby's own website for "experiences" shows it operating from a helipad. With the quote, "We're bringing the wonder of flight to your commute." What, praytell, do you think that "commute" is referring, FFS?
But wait, it gets better. They follow that with, " Every leg of your journey,
seamlessly orchestrated.
A few taps on our app and we’ll choreograph
your entire commute, including an Uber to and
from our vertiports. No hassle or headaches, just seamless travel from A to B."
Oh yeah, and their example, is a map showing a flight from Manhattan to JFK, and flight times.
Doesn't really seem like random travel from one city corner to another one and couple miles away, does it? They aren't just landing on some random street corner and buzzing off. Ever. Our cities aren't made for that, and they aren't changing because someone built a life size drone that carries people. The costs for burying and relocating city infrastructure is enormous.
But hmm...Well, it sounds like you would know better than Joby would. Maybe you should give them a call and let them know their business model doesn't make sense. Or whatever it is you're thinking.
I'm just giving you actual industry information. Do with it as you will.
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Lindberg
Final Approach
There's a helipad on the roof of just about every mid and high-rise building in Southern California. Why?
JVerb
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That's exactly why they are. The realities of UAM are not enough to keep them in business, and they know it.If only the major players were pursuing other sources of revenue.
Joby Completes Landmark U.S. Defense Exercise with Autonomous Flight Technology
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
Why should we care how they stay in business, as long as they do?
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Have you tried landing in each and any of those helipads on a routine basis beyond an emergency? As a helicopter driver, I'm going to say chances are...no....permissions, insurance requirements, neighbor complaints, etc. One of my tenants at the airport runs a touring business, sometimes he subleases our R44. I've heard more about helipads / landing places for helicopters than I can imagine...
God forbid, wait till the first accident in one...and see what happens to their stock valuation....
Because the LA fire code decided to mandate each building greater then 120 feet tall have a helipad. Other cities in the region modelled there fire code off it, so practically all of Socal had that element of the fire code.
I don't believe there has been a single documented case of evacuation of high-rise building for fire, by helicopter.. I think San Diego got rid of it in 1986, and LA got rid of it only in 2014, because it is an absurd premise to rescue people from a fire, by helicopter. The reason it took so long to get rid of the ordinance, at least for LA, was that some senior officials thought the concept had merit.
Except I was discussing an operator price structure and not pax prices. So you rebutted on a point that did not exist in my post. Same with your continued distortion of my comments. Where did I state or imply eVTOLs would be “landing on some random street corner and buzzing off” as you state in your post? If you don’t understand what I write, then question that vs make up your own version.
I believe I stated in previous posts the UAM public plan for eVTOLs is the end game in about 20-25 years, which as far as I know Joby is not directly involved with except to provide the aircraft. I also think I stated that until the UAM public ability is met, the eVTOLs will operate under an air taxi model to mature the technology and build capacity. So why wouldn’t Joby advertise and market air taxi ops at this time?
Regardless, we seem to be going around in circles, again. Perhaps once Joby and Archer are certified and flying routes in the near future, we can continue this discussion and see where it takes us?
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JVerb
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Wait, so you saying evtols were developed solely to pick up at street level in a city center and fly to another place, doesn't equate to picking people up on the street and flying to another place?? Umm, what?? Shirley you can't be serious. I mean seriously, WTF do you think "air taxi model" means, from a physical standpoint?! It doesn't mean flying from one hub to another hub; it means picking someone up on the street corner and flying to another place. Otherwise, it's not a taxi service. You need to think thoroughly what words actually mean; you shouldn't use them and then pretend they have different meanings. Words have meanings, they aren't just a collection of random letters you can assign a definition at your convenience.
As for Joby not directly involved with UAM, they acquired Blaze in 2025, one of the very few successful commuter helicopter transports in NY, to be able to use their facilities and eliminate the competition in the EVTOL UAM market. While you clearly state just now that Joby is not involved in UAM market, except providing aircraft. How much more would they have to do for you to consider them directly involved and going after the UAM?! They have literally have bought their competition to prevent having to face helicopters directly in one of the only markets in the country that UAM has a shot at working. That sounds very involved in UAM, doesn't it??
You're right, we are going around in circles. I won't continue to discuss something with someone that wants to gaslight and just state patently false information in light of actual statements from the industry, by the manufacturers themselves. It's mind boggling, and I'm done with it.
An FAA Part 135 Air Taxi is defined as a commercial operator, who provides on-demand flight services as authorized under their approved operations specifications, which for eVTOLs will be flights between a system of street-level approved vertiports. And for being a self-professed expert, your level of confusion over such a basic industry term is rather interesting. So, I’ll leave it at that.
P.S.: UAM is a transportation system developed by the government who will provide oversight, NAS control, regulatory authority, and infrastructure management for all aircraft in non-conventional air operations within urban environments. Its not operator run nor specific to eVTOLs, and covers UAS, eSTOLs, and other similar aircraft.
Lindberg
Final Approach
Even outside of aviation, "taxi" does not exclusively refer to on-demand, passenger-directed, point-to-point transit options. But perhaps that is a source of confusion. Here's one example:
en.wikipedia.org
Share taxi - Wikipedia
JVerb
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Mkay. I'll just leave this here for ya. Guess what A/C we were reviewing and discussing?
Attachments
JVerb
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Requests from manufacturers for preliminary planning layouts. Unless you're one of them, I can't send you our files. We've been studying potential sites and space requirements for years. That is/was a goal once upon a time, until it was pretty well disproven it would work as the space requirements and true functionality doesn't allow for it.
There's a lot of bad ideas that get better and rules out before EBs and ACs come out for things.
Took me over an hour from NYC Penn Station to Newark airport on Sunday. 30 min wait for the train (missed it by *that much*), then 30 min on the train, then 10 min on AirTran. All for $12.50. I'm not counting the $11/15 min. cab from the hotel to Penn Station - tired of hiking Manhattan. Not sure a service from the hotel to Newark would be faster, definitely not cheaper. An air taxi benefits those who value their time above all else.Now I feel like I am back in school
Anyways, going on memory from what I have read in the past instead of a current web search.
Electric propulsion was mostly in academic land in the early 2000s with a focus on distributed propulsion. From what I recall, this lead to NASA blown lift wings.
The FAA has for a very long time had an urban mobility initiative, of which I am not aware of any actual regulatory progress until the past decade. Around a decade ago (I think), the FAA started to make a real effort and called it the advanced air mobility effort. This was a complete look at the how to handle a large number of short range "air taxis" for lack of a better description. The difference between this effort and previous ones was the FAA actually made real progress and has proposed (not sure if passed) actually regulatory changes to support this nascent industry. One other aspect that I think was critical was the change from a focus only on a single metro urban area to urban and regional transportation. A guess on my part, is the FAA made and followed through on this commitment for AAM based on the watching how much private venture funding was going into eVTOL/eSTOL aircraft.
As for eVTOL/eSTOL industry, the pitch in the PR pieces focus quiet, point to point and go anywhere flexibility. In the prospectus I have read, the focus has been on either one of two things. 1. Significantly lower operational costs, and often if an air taxi service they predict short range flights that match Uber/Lyft on price. 2. For cargo aspects, much lower operational costs by brining cargo closer to delivery point with little to no infrastructure/staffing requirements.
That is why I view eVTOL/sVTOL as technically viable. But I do not see the technology available yet for the meeting the economic vision. To me it is only a matter of time. It might be just a few years, or it could take decades. To have such an economic breakthrough will require some massive technical/process change. And there is a crap load money going into solving the economic issues, but predicting when this investment has a major break through, to me is a not possible.
Tim
Bought Joby a long time ago. Wish I had bought more, but at the time, willing to accept that it might be vaporware.Put everything you have into Joby stock. I’m calling it.
JVerb
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www.blade.com for the next time. It's already there.
Lindberg
Final Approach
I'm sorry, was this a response to my post? I ask because it seems like non sequitur. If it relates to what I wrote, could you please explain the relevance?
Tarheelpilot
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I read it as a direct response to your post.
JVerb
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You had essentially asked why I equated air taxi to street corner pickup. I equate it to that because that was the hope and dream of the industry at one point. Being able to have landing pads all over the place in cities to provide on-call pickup service like the TNC companies Uber/Lyft.
Lindberg
Final Approach
But it's not now? So did you understand that's not what the current conversation is about?
JVerb
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Did you not see I used street side pickup as a non-starter, and why UAM will fail as a business plan because it's not a realistic possibility? My entire point is the companies will need other business models to make money, because being "as cheap as Uber black" costs for only 1 seat for their flight from one node to another note is not a way to make actual money. They will need military and other sources. The dream of UAM will not be met with these vehicles.
Fun fact, as I pointed out previously. $200 per person one way to go on vacation costs too much for the average person. That is the Uber black commute price for the entire vehicle. The argument from the other poster was that isn't their business model, but yes, yes it is their advertised business model. That's literally what they're trying to sell this as. Anyone can see that from looking at their websites. And again, my point is, that is very highly likely a failed business model. The only places that has been successful in the US is NYC. A helicopter from JFK to Manhattan is ~$2000, for 4 seats. Evtol getting that price down to $800 makes it less ultra rich, but that is still not anywhere close to affordable for the average person to make this commonplace.
Lindberg
Final Approach
Uber/Lyft/etc. are doing great, and I see plenty of folks taking Uber Black to dinner, movies, the airport, shopping, etc. "Average" folks can stick with UberX. In urban areas of you can cut commute times and increase convenience, people will buy it. You're arguing with strawmen.
Not on weekends. Definitely not for almost $200.
Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
I'm following this thread, but I don't understand your point here. I think you guys are talking past one another.
@JVerb is saying that EVTOL isn't intended for curbside pickup, yet your your comments seem to support what he is saying. You are saying that various flavors of Uber/Lyft work fine; he is saying Uber is less expensive per person, which supports what you are saying.
China is way ahead of the USA with UAM/EVTOL (UAM seems to have different definitions depending on who you talk to), but they appear to have time-line slippage on reaching their goal of commercial operations. I thought it was supposed to happen this year. However, it appears that they aren't doing door-to-door, but instead are using commercial helipads combined with local "landing pads".
See:
China’s eVTOL sector accelerates into 2025 with new platforms, orders and city plans
www.urbanairmobilitynews.com
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JVerb
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No, I'm arguing with actual proposed numbers. The "as cheap as Uber black" from Joby is their long term goal of getting them as cheap for 1.seat.as.the entire Uber black costs. If you get an UBER black for a group of 4, you pay 1x price. On the evtol, you pay 4x. And this is just their "goal". Nobody publicly has seen proposed #s for the statement with actual numbers to see if that's even an attainable goal.
To-date, Uber has lost $32+ Billion, finally having a profitable quarter in 2024. Lyft has lost over $10B, and hasn't had a profitable year yet. To be honest, if they don't get their **** together, their survival is in jeopardy, too. That's why Lyft's stock value has dropped like a rock (from $78/share in 2018 to $13 today)
Considering we had massive stock market growth over the last 5+ years, not sure if you follow it much, but that is NOT what a "doing great" company looks like.
JVerb
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Hey, I don't value my time that much either (~$2000), but some probably do! Just saying there are options available. I wouldn't pay $200 for myself personally unless I was flying alone and really ****ed off at the moment with traffic)
Lindberg
Final Approach
He seems to be saying that it's either that or nothing, and since eVTOL isn't ready for arbitrary pickups and dropoffs that it's DOA.
Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
Thanks. I read his posts somewhat differently than that, hence my comments.