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Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Tom-D, Jun 24, 2020.
several employees I know, think so
Just a wee bit.
But because it's a defence contractor, and the only serious competition to Airbus for commercial jets, it will get bailed out. But maybe not until the equity goes to zero.
Eh i don't know. Boeing is so tied into the government I think they are too big to fail. The space and defense sector will keep them going, plus they are the face of American manufacturing. If they implode it leaves basically Airbus to run roughshod, which can't happen. Maybe they restructure the commercial airliner division, but I can't see them failing completely.
In the short term, yes. They really screwed the pooch with the 737Max situation, and I suspect they're going to need some significant cultural changes to prevent a repeat. In the long term no, lots of fat government contracts, too big to fail etc.
You guys seem to be forgetting COMAC, Mitsubishi, Irkut, Bombardier, and Embraer that are all probably capable of stepping up to fill any void left by Boeing’s commercial division going under.
military is another discussion, but on the commercial side someone will take over.
I'm curious as to why their stock has almost doubled since March.
Comac has been persistently unable to even deliver a credible prototype.
Irkut's SSJ, after breaking the barrier of sales to the west, has been a spectacular failure in actual service; simply unreliable.
Bombardier is out of the business entirely, having sold their (solid) C-Series program to Airbus for... well, pretty much nothing.
Embraer engineers and builds solid products, but Boeing walked away from an acquisition deal. Worth watching what they do next.
Mitsubishi - wait and see. Don't think they'll become a major player.
It's still Boeing and Airbus.
Long-term, Boeing will be fine, and they're learning a lesson or two from the MCAS debacle. They still build the best airplanes.
Probably same reason Hertz stock still has value. Boeing will get bailed out however. Now that we have accepted MMT and given money to Carnival and the airlines, why not. The Fed will buy their stock as soon as Congress approves that process.
Boeing isn’t going anywhere.
The question of the day....."will the Max ever fly again?"
Boink commercial side is in deep trouble. Military and government side not so bad. Last I heard on the 737 program, is that the FAA isn't even talking to them about it right now. They gave Boeing a list of information they wanted to see prior to restarting discussions and management told them they weren't getting it. The feds, said call us when you have it ready, otherwise, there was nothing to talk about.
Boeing is a NGO basically, the US Government will make sure they don't go under. They are facing an uphill battle commercially, and they know it. Between the MAX, the slowdown on orders to zero and pi$$ing off the Chinese, they are going to have to rebrand. They are our biggest export machine, and that is going to stop for a long time.
I said the same thing about Pan Am!
I said the same thing about GM, before my shares were given to the unions.
Well they moved head office from Seattle to Chicago, and then put a plant in NC.
So you never know what people will do to avoid the incessant rain and all those tall green trees...
None of these are anywhere near able to either develop or even manufacture product that compares with the Airbus and Boeing commercial line up. These two companies have a solid duopoly in the large commercial transport jet business that is about impossible to break (unless you want to include the former Soviet bloc producers as viable alternatives). Companies like Douglas and Lockheed are long out of the business or merged.
Bombardier ran out of cash to fund the C Series and although it is based in Quebec, even the Francophone friendly Canadian Liberal government wasn't going to pump in any more subsidies. As @SCCutler posted above, Bombardier contributed the C Series program into a JV with Airbus, and then could not meet its $700 million funding commitment to the JV. It spent more than $6 billion developing what seems a damn fine airplane (now called the Airbus A220) from all the reports. But this past February Bombardier announced it was selling its ~34% stake in the JV; 25% to Airbus for $591 million and 9% to the Quebec government for zero consideration.
It has also sold off its Canadair water bomber product, the de Havilland derived Q400 turboprop and its CRJ regional jet production. All it has left of any substance in aerospace is the executive/private jet products.
Demonstrates yet again there's few ways to destroy capital faster than aviation.
The airline companies worldwide, many of which are government owned (and likely more will be defacto government owned by the time this COVID episode is over), do not want a single supplier of large commercial jets. They will work with the US government and Boeing to do whatever it takes to make sure there is not an Airbus monopoly outcome.
It would not surprise if any bailout might have a condition required Boeing to separate Commercial Airplanes into an independent company with separate management from the defense businesses.
Pan Am, Braniff and so many other failed airline companies were all "one of many", nationally and internationally.
Boeing is "one of one" nationally and "one of two" internationally. Different situation entirely.
They aren't even close to having the production capabilities; they'd literally have to buy Boeing's lines, or it would be years before they'd produce a single ship.
Absolutely! Apples to oranges comparison.
Cultural changes across the entire company, IMO
Their Starliner software had problems: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/boeings-starliner-software-issues-under-nasa-investigation.html
KC- 46 issues: https://www.defensenews.com/air/202...deficiency-and-boeing-is-stuck-paying-for-it/
I think they had problems with junk, up to and including ladders, left in the fuel cells of this aircraft?
Even on the government side they have done bad things to the pooch. Metal shavings that were left inside of Tanker (including the tanks). Fortunately the government caught it before accepting product.
Company needs a good management overhaul. Not your Boing of old. They will survive, as GE and IBM have, but they have lost their way.
Took a position with them on March 19 @ $98.00 per-share... still looking good. Even with all the MAX BS, they were still healthy @ $350 + per share this time last year.
Was GM in trouble? No way Boeing will go under. I'm betting they will see a new high in 2 years. LEAPS are cheap.
Hang onto it, you’ll make out like a raped ape. I remember when it was under $100 a couple months ago and I just about pulled the trigger, but I didn’t... hindsight!