Icing Go/No-Go insights

Tim - agreed. Abstinence only education is basically worthless no matter what the topic is.

Lance - agreed. Outs is the name of the game no matter the airplane. My question dealt more with the hypothetical for this mornings weather. I was wondering if i would've been a Go if the ceilings and vis would've been better (like 3ish and 1000OVC at least). Even though there was a slight possibility for icing.

Scott - Thanks! your insight is always welcome and appreciated :yes:
 
This is definitely one of the biggest 'gem' threads I've seen on PoA in a long time. Is there any chance we could get Dr. Bruce, Scott D., and anyone else that feels comfortable with sharing information on this subject to give some sort of 'mini-seminar' over drinks at Gaston's? ;)
 
Also, I gather from the comments scattered around that IFR Magazine is worth subscribing to. True? I've got a subscription offer sitting around that came in the mail a couple days ago and I'm on the fence. Yes? No?

Thanks.
 
Invest in Scott D's intro to the skew-T. Very very helpful.

You asked what CIP % probability stops me. Well, around 50% I start thinking long and hard. I really, as Scott suggests, look at the totality of the forecasts - TAF, METARs, PIREPS, soundings, etc. Maybe because I've studied Scott's stuff.;) I try to look at the whole picture, my outs, route options, and what ATC will likely do to me. Then I decide.
 
flyersfan31 said:
Invest in Scott D's intro to the skew-T. Very very helpful.

You asked what CIP % probability stops me. Well, around 50% I start thinking long and hard. I really, as Scott suggests, look at the totality of the forecasts - TAF, METARs, PIREPS, soundings, etc. Maybe because I've studied Scott's stuff.;) I try to look at the whole picture, my outs, route options, and what ATC will likely do to me. Then I decide.
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i agree with your opinion in looking at everything, instead of just at one forecast. And just from what Scott has helped me with on the forums, I have no doubt as to the value of his CD's. I think we need to start a trust fund or something so that us broke members can get the info too :)
 
CJones said:
This is definitely one of the biggest 'gem' threads I've seen on PoA in a long time. Is there any chance we could get Dr. Bruce, Scott D., and anyone else that feels comfortable with sharing information on this subject to give some sort of 'mini-seminar' over drinks at Gaston's? ;)
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You should stay tuned to your favorite aviation podcast. :D
 
If you all can get prof. Scott to do this it would be a coup. I would just be another student....with the LCD projector, of course.....and the screen, too........
 
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tonycondon said:
and to get more episodes out! :D
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Confirmation number:
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34963472DL4352844
Purpose:
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Get Mike off his butt to edit some episodes! :&)
Contributor:
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Grant Prellwitz
 
scott - im still digesting your post, but THANKS for the reply, very informative!
 
gprellwitz said:
Confirmation number:
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34963472DL4352844
Purpose:
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Get Mike off his butt to edit some episodes! :&)
Contributor:
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Grant Prellwitz
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Won't work. It only goes to more beer which keeps me from working.

Thanks, Grant!
 
mikea said:
Won't work. It only goes to more beer which keeps me from working.

Thanks, Grant!
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And here I was, coming back yo the computer for the sole purpose of posting how appreciative I was of your efforts , and how I understood that you have a heck of a lot on your plate. I take it all back! :D:rofl:

Actually, you do have a lot on your plate. If only you understood that Pilotcast > PoA > work > X10! :yes::p:rofl:
 
scottd said:
Tony,

Did you look at the FIP severity product for 3,000 ft? It's not considered operational as of yet...but soon.
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I had seen that but didnt look at it that morning. Should have. Now that Im looking at it for tomorrow its showing an interesting picture. I think I'll make a new thread about that.

This highly depends on the situation. In this particular case, the likely cloud type was stratus given the temperature structure below. FIP is reacting (with a high percentage) to the "prime" icing temperatures in the -5°C to -10°C range as shown in the IR satellite image.

The 12Z DVN RAOB reveals a lot. There's definitely a stratus layer near the surface (from 2,000 MSL to 2,500 MSL). At first glance, this looks like stratocumulus clouds, but the saturated layer is in the inversion producing more of a stratified cloud (not cumuliform). Stratocumulus is bad...especially at the tops - high liquid water content and potentially larger drops. Stratus isn't as bad since the liquid water content is lower and the drops are smaller. The MSN analysis at 1400 UTC looked very similar except the layer was from 2,500 MSL through 3,000 feet MSL.

The layer was starting to break down a bit, hence the lower risk shown by FIP. Here's the MSN analysis valid at 1800 UTC which shows a hint of clouds at 3,000 feet.

Often Tony the devil is in the details. That's why I took about 7 months to put together a detailed 2.5 hour CD on icing with the guy who developed CIP and FIP (and we had to cut out a bunch of stuff and throw it into a Part 2 - that'll be available at the end of the summer).
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devil in the details is right. Im starting to get a clearer picture of what those details are and really appreciate it. I really like the use of the IR satellite to figure cloud top temps. I had never thought about that before (wheres the 'smack forehead' smiley?)
 
Tony, this is an awesome post for a new instrument student. Intimidating, but very thought provoking. Thanks!
 
tonycondon said:
Chris - Im hesitant to bring airplane performance into the equation too heavily. I just dont want to depend on it. Id rather be good at identifying the weather where even if the simple signs say otherwise there just isnt going to be any ice.
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Tony, wasn't it you in CFICast 4 talking about taking off with smoothed frost and how it drastically increased your takeoff distance and airspeed? It's not about the power available, though that will certainly have an effect.
 
gprellwitz said:
Tony, wasn't it you in CFICast 4 talking about taking off with smoothed frost and how it drastically increased your takeoff distance and airspeed? It's not about the power available, though that will certainly have an effect.
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I believe that was Ron
 
Ghery said:
Also, I gather from the comments scattered around that IFR Magazine is worth subscribing to. True? I've got a subscription offer sitting around that came in the mail a couple days ago and I'm on the fence. Yes? No?

Thanks.
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In my opinion, absolutely.

(But I'm new to the IFR thing)
 
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