I'm thinking we really should start a separate thread called like "Airplane Sellers Gone Wild" as a home dedicated to storing some of the more... extreme... listings out there. Because there's a whole lot of clown town in the market.
I’m calling the peak
- Thread starter AA5Bman
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The absurdity of TAP listings finally drove me to do it. I bought a new domain and am setting up a site to memorialize the insanity of these listings. It's called "www.ClownTown.LoL". It'll be a no frills site that accepts TAP/barnstormer links and commentary. I'll probably build it this weekend.
Not HTTPS yet so your browser might scream bloody murder if you try and visit.
If nothing else I intend it to be a place where I can store my favorites, like a recently listed 70's 172 for 230k$.
EDIT: Might also accept zillow listings b/c as I consider places to move, some of those listings are just as bad if not even more hilariously awful.
If nothing else I intend it to be a place where I can store my favorites, like a recently listed 70's 172 for 230k$.
EDIT: Might also accept zillow listings b/c as I consider places to move, some of those listings are just as bad if not even more hilariously awful.
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Is it the (Glasair?) in your profile photo? If so, good taste
Flyxaos
Pre-takeoff checklist
Yep. I have been looking at them for years. Life, the Medical, Insurance and Money finally aligned. The Sportsman fits the mission well. I am also happy to report that it has been re-usable after every landing!
Really, I think ownership is just the commitment of the whole thing. The purchase price of the airplane, as we know, is only a part of that equation. I don't know if waiting any longer would have made much difference on the price of the plane. I just went ahead and did it. I'm apparently not getting any younger.
Now if anybody wants a quarter share in a Zenith CH650 Hangered at Harvey Field, let me know.
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
Hard to go wrong with that logic. Now if I could work up the nerve to do the same with a ski condo.
Country Flier
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I haven’t been on TAP/barnstormers/controller in a month or so…I went on the other day…HOLY COW! Maybe it was a bad sample/ just the listings I was clicking on but prices are not even funny anymore…a 2-year-old cirrus for almost 1.5x retail, a newish Mooney like mine for 90k MORE than I paid for mine BRAND NEW, a 10 year old A36 for a nearly new price…what the???
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Maybe it's like single family homes and private equity. Somebody's decided to corner the market and the market is adjusting. Who knows?
Ashara Keliyn
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I will frequent and contribute. Have so many that I wanted to post in this thread...
Barnstormers. Dec 6, 2023. Review of Cessna 172N listed for sale.
7 aircraft identified for sale with clearly stated list price.
Average list price = $162,950. High = $250,000. Low = $79,000.
Average Engine SMOH = 466 hours. High = 1,645. Low = 50.
_______________Aug 2023____Sep 2023_____Oct 2023____Nov 2023____Dec 2023
Avg list price.___$123,204_____100,542______133,563____127,922_____162,950
Avg SMOH.________1,140_______1,651________894________1,245_______466
Count (N)__________11__________7___________11_________9___________7
Post #_____________509________573__________654_______687_________731
* ArrowFlyer is correct. Long day. Initial post included all 172's. This post corrected to notation of only 172N models.
7 aircraft identified for sale with clearly stated list price.
Average list price = $162,950. High = $250,000. Low = $79,000.
Average Engine SMOH = 466 hours. High = 1,645. Low = 50.
_______________Aug 2023____Sep 2023_____Oct 2023____Nov 2023____Dec 2023
Avg list price.___$123,204_____100,542______133,563____127,922_____162,950
Avg SMOH.________1,140_______1,651________894________1,245_______466
Count (N)__________11__________7___________11_________9___________7
Post #_____________509________573__________654_______687_________731
* ArrowFlyer is correct. Long day. Initial post included all 172's. This post corrected to notation of only 172N models.
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Wow that's quite a jump in N from Nov->Dec... I'll have to check my data and see if I got that kinda spike.
Grum.Man
En-Route
It’s wild. I’m glad I got into aviation when I did. If it took 35-45k to buy an average at best Cessna 150 or Grumman Yankee I’d have never gotten into the hobby. 35-40k for a Cessna 140??? Nah!
November to December comparison... Prices are the listing prices, not sale prices.
Total n for all listings in Dec = 1007, Nov = 965.
EDIT: Data as of 11/6 and 12/6.
EDIT: Out of curiosity I wanted to see the breakout of SR22s by model year (b/c their avg price is so high -- and there was a reasonable spike in listing counts over the last month)...
and the same chart for 172s, which lead to the creation of the new webpage i mentioned above...
Total n for all listings in Dec = 1007, Nov = 965.
EDIT: Data as of 11/6 and 12/6.
EDIT: Out of curiosity I wanted to see the breakout of SR22s by model year (b/c their avg price is so high -- and there was a reasonable spike in listing counts over the last month)...
and the same chart for 172s, which lead to the creation of the new webpage i mentioned above...
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charheep
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The # of under $100k planes seems to be shrinking.
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I wonder if clown pricing is occurring because financial reality is catching up with some over stretched owners? (IOW - oh crap, I really do have to keep making payments month after month).
Ashara Keliyn
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That might be the case. Despite prices shooting up within the past few months the inventory seems stagnant. I have seen at least 4 tail numbers for which the previous listings were still available in the depths of the internet. The planes were bought for mid $80s (assuming full asking was paid) and now, a year later, those are listed in high $110s with no appreciable upgrades or maintenance done. C'mon, a used 430 does does not merit a 30k increase in price. Funny fact: some even reuse the previous listing's pictures.
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I think @ArrowFlyer86 needs a non aviation hobby to keep his sanity...regardless of how hilarious clowntown is. I suggest beekeeping.
On the other end of the absurdity is the guy on barnstormers wanting to trade his 1988 Suzuki Samurai for a plane. Are those things collectible? If so, why???
On the other end of the absurdity is the guy on barnstormers wanting to trade his 1988 Suzuki Samurai for a plane. Are those things collectible? If so, why???
My sanity departed me a long time ago. Judging by the direction of this country, I'm not alone
But I appreciate the concern. Maybe I'll look into urban beekeeping once I hit 40.
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Make sure to chain the hives down. Left a job in the city and saw this.My sanity departed me a long time ago. Judging by the direction of this country, I'm not alone
But I appreciate the concern. Maybe I'll look into urban beekeeping once I hit 40.
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Bear gangs doing honey drive bys ?
charheep
Cleared for Takeoff
Now that's hubris.
Grum.Man
En-Route
It's just so hard to tell if something sells because so many sellers don't change or remove their listings. The tail numbers I have kept track of or followed up on at a later date haven't sold. Every now and then my jaw drops when a crazy priced airplane does in fact sell. There was a Kitfox IV here local that was nothing special for sale for over 100k. Ordinary Rotax 912, steam gauges, kind of love or hate paint scheme. I thought now way he ever gets close to that, sure enough a local guy bought it after it had been on the market for 4 or 5 months. I think a lot of planes that sell right now are convenience buys more than anything.
Grum.Man
En-Route
Apparently they are now and I don't get it. Back when I owned several Samurai, you bought them because they were a budget option to a Jeep. They weren't better than a Jeep, just cheaper. Now you can get a coil spring inline 6 TJ in better condition than the nicest Samurai in existence for less. Granted finding a Samurai that hasn't been hacked up or rusted away is way more rare but it's still a crappy little car that has no business costing more than a couple grand haha.
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
I think we are seeing statistical distortion due to small sample size. Same as real estate. Volume of transactions in 20-21 was about double the norm. Volume in 22-23 has been about half the norm.
Theory: people move from thinking about buying/selling to actually doing it at a natural rate per year. Economic conditions during the Pandemic persuaded a lot more thinkers to become doers. That depleted the supply of prospective buyers and sellers. Will take a while for life to catch up.
In the meantime, smaller data set will amplify the effect of outliers. Unrealistic sellers and low-ball buyers were always there. It's just that now they are a higher percentage of the population since more normal folks did their thing 2-3 years ago.
Theory: people move from thinking about buying/selling to actually doing it at a natural rate per year. Economic conditions during the Pandemic persuaded a lot more thinkers to become doers. That depleted the supply of prospective buyers and sellers. Will take a while for life to catch up.
In the meantime, smaller data set will amplify the effect of outliers. Unrealistic sellers and low-ball buyers were always there. It's just that now they are a higher percentage of the population since more normal folks did their thing 2-3 years ago.
Observation, new aircraft are being manufactured but enough to fill the used market? Every time an aircraft is damaged and unrepairable it's off the used market forever. Newer models are super expensive and beyond the price range of many folks. Could that be part of the reason older aircraft have gone up in value so much? Basically, supply and demand.
Grum.Man
En-Route
The market is usually driven from the bottom up. If a Cessna 150 goes up 10k and 172 goes up 15k type situation. We live in a world where people finance everything so paying 10-15k more than an airplane has historically been worth means your payment is only 100-150 more per month over 20 years (max term length of an airplane loan). The availability of cheap interest rate loans the preceeding 3-4 years brought new buyers into the lower end of the market that perhaps aren't as well versed in airplane ownership. This drove up the price of all the airplanes above it. I often hear people quote the price on a brand new certified lycoming engine as justification for their evaluation but ignore the engine trade in value that hasn't changed from $6,500.00 for an engine past TBO. I personally don't feel like truly exceptional restored airplanes have a high enough value and the ones that need work a low enough value.
Good point, cost of restoring or rebuilding could be higher than resale value. I am more versed on collector cars, very true in that market.
There is the buy it and fix up as money allows people. At some point I hope to be able to buy one. Higher the market gets the lower the quality of aircraft I can afford or justify.
NealRomeoGolf
Final Approach
Everyone just has to accept a new norm unless you want to enter a period of deflation. We are needing to buy a heat treat system that 2 years ago was $70k. It is now $135k. It's not just airplanes. Inflation sucks. Welcome to the rodeo.
Ed Haywood
Final Approach
It is. Ask me how I know. But like many things, there is the intangible value of having the use of the restored or rebuilt airplane in the future.
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What I find interesting is that simple planes (Cherokee fixed gear 4 seat, C-172, C-15x) are commanding a premium relative to more capable machines (think Mooney, Bonanza, Arrow). I wonder how much this is driven by insurance? We've got another thread running on 75 year olds and insurance. And don't even get started on twins (which are 2x to feed and then some not counting maintenance).
This is based on simple observation and not any scientific analysis of the data.
This is based on simple observation and not any scientific analysis of the data.
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Spot on - I’m with you that I believe the cost of insurance for retracts is driving demand down. My problem is compounded because in 8 years I’ll be 70, which means I’d have to sell it after a short ownership.
Grum.Man
En-Route
It's possible but I suspect its due to insurance prices for lower time younger pilots that are financing the planes. Most of the older guys I talk to don't carry insurance anymore and aren't required to since they likely aren't financing.
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One pilot on this board explained that since he lost his insurance he lost his hangar as insurance was required as part of his lease. So at least liability I assume.
Grum.Man
En-Route
Well that is true too though I think some insurance companies will write a policy just for not in motion type coverage as well.
bcool
Pre-takeoff checklist
I can verify this is being done...I saw an ad for the plane I sold in 2022 and they used some of my pictures, too - plus one new one. Weird...I guess they liked mine and didn't think they could improve on them
For myself complex or even HP are out of the question. Won't be financing a plane, but insurance will be an issue. An older low time pilot in this market makes full coverage insurance prohibitive. More capable aircraft than say a 172 are about the same cost, in some cases lower. Original thinking was only a supply and demand issue, now insurance can be added.
Ashara Keliyn
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There is still one listed. Is it the "Oakruin Moonupper"?
Rcmutz
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Yep. The engine drive with built in air compressor on my service truck was 12k when I bought it. Up over 22k now. Sucks. But it's the game ya gotta play.