How long do "these markets" last?

Lets say you are sitting on some cash. For whatever reason. once you have paid your uncle his unfair share. Where do you park the extra. Some will go to remodeling one of our properties, but what to do with the rest? I'm interested in hearing ideas. I think most on this site are a bit more financially savvy than the general population, or you couldn't be involved in aviation. So if you needed to park some money, and wanted inflation resistant investment that can be a bit liquid, where would you park it?
 
What is your time horizon? 5- 10 years? Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, or Vanguard Large Cap Growth Index find.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
Lets say you are sitting on some cash. For whatever reason. once you have paid your uncle his unfair share. Where do you park the extra. Some will go to remodeling one of our properties, but what to do with the rest? I'm interested in hearing ideas. I think most on this site are a bit more financially savvy than the general population, or you couldn't be involved in aviation. So if you needed to park some money, and wanted inflation resistant investment that can be a bit liquid, where would you park it?
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My dad's in a similar situation. He's 63 and with the market at all time highs, he's thinking another market recession is inevitable. Can only have a bull market so long right? There's safe options to move that money to, but it won't really increase value. I moved most of my retirement to an index fund last year. I don't think that would be the best route for him with where the market is and his age. I mean he's not slowing down anytime soon. He runs 2 miles a day. With his commercial real estate he doesn't need the retirement income, but who wants to see a chunk just vanish this close to maturity.
 
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I started saving towards my retirement at age 26, doing pretty well now and still only 43.
 
Racerx said:
My dad's in a similar situation. He's 63 and with the market at all time highs, he's thinking another market recession is inevitable. Can only have a bull market so long right? There's safe options to move that money to, but it won't really increase value. I moved most of my retirement to an index fund last year. I don't think that would be the best route for him with where the market is and his age. I mean he's not slowing down anytime soon. He runs 2 miles a day. With his commercial real estate he doesn't need the retirement income, but who wants to see a chunk just vanish this close to maturity.
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While many of us think that the market has had a good run and we're due for a correction, unless he needs to take the money out he's not going to lose anything. Leave it where it is (and an index fund of some flavor is a good idea) and let it ride. While we may be due for that correction, when it comes who knows how deep it will have to come back from but for sure it WILL come back. The question is will it be inside his time horizon and does it matter if he doesn't need it?

My parents have been retired for almost 25 years and they have had a great time doing pretty much whatever they wanted and because of a life-long investment strategy, heavily in Vanguard index funds and few key dividend paying stocks, they now have more money than they did when they retired. They were very good about financial education with my brother and I and we started investing in our early 20s too and at 57 I can assure you it's paid off.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Maybe the middle ground is own nothing on the house but finance the toys. If things go south give the toys back to the finance company. Keep the house.
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Sounds like a workable plan if your conscience will allow you to screw the bank. My standard of ethics won’t allow such things.
 
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MBDiagMan said:
Sounds like a workable plan if your conscience will allow you to screw the bank. My standard of ethics won’t allow such things.
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Spare me please the moral posturing. This was a friendly discussion of hypotheticals.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Maybe the middle ground is own nothing on the house but finance the toys. If things go south give the toys back to the finance company. Keep the house.
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If a person should owe that much debt for toys, chances are greater that a person will loose the toys. Lot to be said about being an adult and not playing games. Maturity is putting off instant gratification for something better. If a person finds him/herself in debt for toys, he/she will miss out on so many opportunities. The shiny toy today will prevent a person doing something more epic later. Looking back that toy wasn't that big of a deal after all.

Not demanding others be more moral, but just offering friendly advice that will greatly benefit a person.
 
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WDD said:
If a person should owe that much debt for toys, chances are greater that a person will loose the toys. Lot to be said about being an adult and not playing games. Maturity is putting off instant gratification for something better. If a person finds him/herself in debt for toys, he/she will miss out on so many opportunities. The shiny toy today will prevent a person doing something more epic later. Looking back that toy wasn't that big of a deal after all.

Not demanding others be more moral, but just offering friendly advice that will greatly benefit a person.
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Thanks but My Father passed away about 5 years ago. I was 55 then.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Spare me please the moral posturing. This was a friendly discussion of hypotheticals.
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if one is willing to screw someone in a hypothetical situation, you would expect that they would do it for real.

Morality doesn’t matter to you?
 
Raised elsewhere - there are some who believe leaded avgas is going to be more restricted in the coming months. That would have a pretty severe impact on airplane resale, yes?
 
My opinions only...

The whole "spend it all before you die" attitude is unconscionably selfish and short-sighted. It provides little to no benefit to society as a whole, certainly none past the end of your own life. Some of the same people who espouse things like that will kvetch and whine about how things aren't like they used to be, country's gone to hell along with the economy, people can't get ahead, and so on. While I am not in favor of creating idle rich heirs who will piddle away your fortune along with their lives, most of us aren't going to leave behind that kind of money anyway. My goal is not to leave a big pile of windfall bucks to my kids. My goal is to leave behind a legacy that will help to make the world a better place for my descendants and everyone else.

Yeah, even as we take time to enjoy some of what we've earned, we're working to try and amass some actual money before we die. Not to be divvied up and probably wasted on new toys or "donated" to the casinos, but to be used to provide some ongoing support for our grandkids and their children. Ideally I want to leave behind a foundation or trust that not only looks after our money, but encourages our kids and their kids and their kids to contribute as well. Something that will encourage, both by example and by incentive, sound long term investing and some degree of charitable giving, building a long term legacy of "family money". It won't ever be a financial empire, but maybe a hundred years from now our family will still be seeing some benefit from our work, and hopefully learning from it and doing some good for our family and the rest of the world.

I believe strongly enough in this that I'm going to keep working pas the point when I could retire and be comfortable for the rest of my life. I just wish I'd started many years earlier. Hell, I wish it had started a few generations back, but better late than never.
 
I'm less inclined to worry about growth at this point. But very inclined to hang onto the nest egg that I have built. preferably in constant dollars. Thus the inflation resistant investment. I may want to blow some of it on a ridiculous toy, (can you say airplane). So fairly liquid. I think a big concern is the future inflation eroding our nest egg.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
I'm less inclined to worry about growth at this point. But very inclined to hang onto the nest egg that I have built. preferably in constant dollars. Thus the inflation resistant investment. I may want to blow some of it on a ridiculous toy, (can you say airplane). So fairly liquid. I think a big concern is the future inflation eroding our nest egg.
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Yeah, I hear you. Inflation kills everything - that's why its so bad. I hope the Fed does what it did under Volcker and boost the rates up enough to kill inflation should it pop up. It hurt (my first mortgage was 10%), but it had to be done.

What is inflation resistant? I honestly don't know. I wouldn't touch bonds, mutual funds are mostly dead. I'm not speculating in gold. Thus the only thing I can think of is to have it in a broad stock index fund, with enough set aside in Gov Bond funds to live off of for a few years while a market crash comes back up to the day before the crash.
 
WDD said:
What is inflation resistant? I honestly don't know. I wouldn't touch bonds, mutual funds are mostly dead. I'm not speculating in gold. Thus the only thing I can think of is to have it in a broad stock index fund, with enough set aside in Gov Bond funds to live off of for a few years while a market crash comes back up to the day before the crash.
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In addition to the broad stock index fund, consider putting some into TIPS bonds and a TIPS fund.
https://www.thebalance.com/pros-and-cons-of-tips-mutual-funds-2466782

And judging by all the freakin' #^%&!! highway construction around here, an investment in Bob's Barricades http://www.bobsbarricades.com/ could make you a billionaire.
 
I parked all my money in precious metals.

Mostly aluminum, but there's some steel in there, too.
 
I should have been investing in Henry rifles, and Diamond aircraft...takes a year to get either one after placing the order.
 
Talking about brass and lead, have you seen the prices lately? If you can find any good brands, the price is just insane. Its almost as bad as Textron parts pricing lately.
 
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Groundpounder said:
The “half the population is unemployed” thing sure isn’t the case where I live. Unemployment is currently at 4% and employers are having a hard time finding people to work.
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I think manufacturing has done well and states that rely less on tourism and more on basic manufacturing have done better. Foods and beverages etc.

But I can tell you that here in LA, as just a micro-perspective, over 400000-800000 people (depending on who you trust) work in entertainment, and they have basically not worked for a year. Most of them are running out of union health care by now and only because of forbearance are they still in their houses. When forbearance ends (which it does very soon), defaults will skyrocket. When they can't get health insurance, health care providers will lose money and have increased costs, etc, etc. And that's just one single industry. What happens when other marginalized industries come home to roost? Nothing happens in a vacuum, after all. This will domino-effect to every business, every market and affect everything eventually. It's just not possible to have the market we have now on Wall Street without any core fundamentals forever. Something's gotta give.

I've already had my last 3 years been rough financially due to bootstrapping a startup and a downtick in work, so I'm already very cautious and already lean ahead of the curve (not because I'm smart, but because I was forced to). I have never been happier to see the end of my luxury SUV lease (that cost $900) month this summer or getting rid of all the other **** we tend to accumulate as humans. Still got the airplane, but I would have sold it a year ago if it hadn't been that it was not in annual. If I can find the fund this year to get her through and the market is still strong, I'll prob sell. And then I'll swoop in and buy that P180 Avanti for half a mill when you're all panic selling..;)
 
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YKA said:
I should have been investing in Henry rifles, and Diamond aircraft...takes a year to get either one after placing the order.
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Get a Randall Knife too, while you are at it.
 
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Around here it feels like the economy is raging. Hard to find labor, and really hard to hire good workers. Maybe not the executive job you want, but jobs if your willing to accomplish something and show up sober when you are suppose to. All I hear ffrom employers is "I can't hire help"! New vehicles everywhere I look, houses sell before they hit the market, and for absolutely ridiculous prices. I know if your in the restaurant business or entertainment business you are hurting, but most other things seem to be doing very well. If your in construction, you have a lot more work than you can do.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
Around here it feels like the economy is raging. Hard to find labor, and really hard to hire good workers. Maybe not the executive job you want, but jobs if your willing to accomplish something and show up sober when you are suppose to. All I hear ffrom employers is "I can't hire help"! New vehicles everywhere I look, houses sell before they hit the market, and for absolutely ridiculous prices. I know if your in the restaurant business or entertainment business you are hurting, but most other things seem to be doing very well. If your in construction, you have a lot more work than you can do.
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Similar here, about 15% of businesses are struggling or already went bankrupt...then about 20% are the same usual...while the remaining 65% are so busy that they cannot keep up. 2020 was my best year ever, had to turn down most of the work I was offered.
 
I have a well diversified portfolio of ETFs for most of our investments, but I wanted a simple vehicle to save up enough to eventually pay off our HELOC, so I'm putting some money into Vanguards Balanced Index fund. It's a mutual fund that directly holds stocks and bonds that represent major indices, so you aren't paying that fund's fees, as well as the fees for the funds it holds (as some of their funds do.) As one asset class goes up, its excess shares are sold, and underperforming asset class shares are purchased. So, you're always selling high, and buying low, without having to worry about market timing, or even keeping track of your portfolio.

I think once the tax increases hit, the economy will grind to a halt; the stimulus payments will eventually cause inflation; and we'll have a reprise of stagflation. That's all I'm going to say on this subject.
 
When have we have had stagflation in the USA?

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk
 
I am really worried that when gas goes to 4-$5 a gallon in the next year or two (and it will) av gas will be 7-$10 and there goes all my retirement money. :(
 
jsstevens said:
The late 1970's and early 1980's.
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Total brain fart on my part, I forgot about the energy induced one. I was trying to think of one caused by the financial side of QE.

Tim
 
The mortgage on out first house (1985) was at 16.5%, if I remember correctly. When we moved back to Omaha a few years later we got 10.5% and thought that was fantastic. Now if I have to pay over 2-3/4 I feel like I'm getting screwed.

Of course back in the 1970s I was also getting 5.25% interest on a checking account, compounded daily...
 
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DaleB said:
The mortgage on out first house (1985) was at 16.5%, if I remember correctly. When we moved back to Omaha a few years later we got 10.5% and thought that was fantastic. Now if I have to pay over 2-3/4 I feel like I'm getting screwed.

Of course back in the 1970s I was also getting 5.25% interest on a checking account, compounded daily...
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Yeah. Both sides of the same coin, but the balance was always bigger on the mortgage side for me in those days. MUCH BIGGER.

Our first house (1983) had a 8 1/2% assumable mortgage (anybody remember those?) and the seller's held a 2nd at 12%. We really got a deal (at the time).
 
MBDiagMan said:
Sounds like a workable plan if your conscience will allow you to screw the bank. My standard of ethics won’t allow such things.
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Financial companies will come after you for the short fall anyway, so it isn't just a matter of returning the toy and done. Ask the people who I bought my house from, my neighbor, and employee of mine, they all got sued in court, after returning the toys and/or house. New toys depreciate quickly, so for example that $100k boat, if you give it back is now only worth $60k, but you owe $90k. The bank will nail you for that $30k you still owe. If you own a house, you are an easy mark, you better be a renter, then just your wages will get garnished till you pay it off. So his plan won't work out anyway. Banks always make money!
 
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