Giant earthquake has hit Japan

I find it ironic that part of what they need to help with this is water.

Brian, glad you made it home and that family is safe. Check in once in a while.
 
Unfortunatly the mortalities are increasing:sad:

I'm betting that before this is over, there will be a thousand or two thousand casualties.. They just haven't all been found yet.

That also takes into account not having a nuclear catastrophe on top of things (and its decades of cancer risk)
 
I still am struck by the fact that even if Japan reaches 10,000 casualties, for what I understand is a "very vertical" country, contrast that with the earthquake in Iran a few years ago where some 40,000 people died...
 
If one of those reactors melts down, then explodes / implodes / whatever they actually do when they go off, will the resulting vibration be enough to set off another earthquake?

A nuclear plant using plant-grade fuel WILL NOT have a nuclear explosion. You might breach containment with steam overpressure, you might have a meltdown and end up with a puddle of molten uranium fuel melting though the bottom of the reactor vessel, but the fuel is too impure (on the order of 5% of it is fissionable) to actually cause a nuclear explosion (Hiroshima style).

Worst case scenario is a Chernobyl type event.
 
I still am struck by the fact that even if Japan reaches 10,000 casualties, for what I understand is a "very vertical" country, contrast that with the earthquake in Iran a few years ago where some 40,000 people died...

I'm betting the infrastructure in Iran was not very shock resistant, as opposed to the Japanese, who KNOW they live on an active fault. The death toll in Iran was due to entrapment and collapse.

Japan I'm betting mostly due to drowning.
 
I'm betting the infrastructure in Iran was not very shock resistant, as opposed to the Japanese, who KNOW they live on an active fault. The death toll in Iran was due to entrapment and collapse.

Japan I'm betting mostly due to drowning.

And has a government willing to impose regulations to ensure that the buildings are built to the strict code, etc. (perhaps I could have put a period after government)

To your other point: Even a Chernobyl type event in Japan will mean a lot of displaced people for a really long time. :(

Bill, cool idea but I can't find the slider mentioned?
 
In Louisiana, what choice would one have in a Tsunami? The whole bottom half of the state is at 3' MSL or below.... Unless you have a plane and the time to get airborne, or live in a city with tall buildings, it's not going to go well for you.:rolleyes2:

If a Tsunami hit Louisiana it would likely do $$Billions in improvements.:rolleyes:
 
To your other point: Even a Chernobyl type event in Japan will mean a lot of displaced people for a really long time. :(

It's important to note that the Chernobyl reactor design is completely different from a boiling water reactor. You really can't compare the Chernobyl accident to what's happening how.

Bill, cool idea but I can't find the slider mentioned?
I had to allow some script from their site for the slider to work...
 
Looking at the video of the tsunami sweep across the coast, farms, homes, highways....I am betting their estimates of 300 deceased will turn out to be greatly underestimated.


The internet helps in disasters:
http://www.google.com/crisisresponse/japanquake2011.html
I am sure it will. There was a video of cars being swept away that they are no longer running. I think that is because there clearly was someone in the car beating on the window and the car flipped over and went under water. American news for all its warts does not like to show actual death.

There are also shots of tsunami approaching roads where the care are also clearly moving. People may have had a warning but the speed of the wave and human nature still make it hard to get out of the way of it. We will see the counts increase.
 
I still am struck by the fact that even if Japan reaches 10,000 casualties, for what I understand is a "very vertical" country, contrast that with the earthquake in Iran a few years ago where some 40,000 people died...
The elevated roads in Japan has visible shock absorbers on them and new construction is built with some very interesting earthquake with standing technology. If you are going to be in a big quack Japan is where you would want to be. They probably have the best technology in the world to deal with it.
 
I was in an office building on 23rd floor in front of Tokyo station when it went down.

Our building is pretty new and handled it well. Things were shaking all over but it was relatively controlled. I was looking out across at some construction sites and the big cranes on top were bobbing and weaving like nobody's business. our building appeared to be moving about 1' either direction relative to the building next door (so I mean about a 2' delta total).

Trains were stopped, and the taxis disappeared. Traffic was terrible in any event. I walked home (14km for me), and there were millions of people with the same idea - Japan actually stages an exercise annually for people to walk home from work once just to get an idea where to go and what it's like. I normally bicycle commute so I was feeling pretty smug.

Convenience stores were gutted of food most of the way. Communications were spotty; my blackberry occasionally got through, my iPhone couldn't do SMS or voice. Curiously, those of us on smart phones (iphone, android, ?) were able to consistently get to Facebook - so there was a lot of dialogue and information exchange there. Who woulda thought.

Got home, family is fine. There have been aftershocks ever since. One reactor site on the coast is having problems, and northern Japan has been absolutely hammered. It's difficult to separate the damage from the earthquake from that due to the tsunami.

I'm not particularly sure what the situation is in northern Japan, but typically Japan farms are small - only a couple of acres. In no event are they the mega events we're used to in the states. This tells me we probably lost quite a few farmers in the rush.


Brian
Glad all is well Brian. I was in Japan, Kobe to be exact, for one of the earthquake drills. It was post the 1995 earthquake so we all took it really seriously. But our walk home was to leave the conference room and perform an orderly evacuation of the hotel.
 
From Japan I have received the following e-mail message concerning friend Hideshi Tamaru:

"Dear Sir,

This is Kaigo Tamaru.
I'm his second son.
Thanks you very much for your specific concern to my father.

My father is going to illness, and he is in Hospital from March 11th.

Fortunately, this enormas earthquake is not effect to us directly.
Our home, Family, Relatives are not damaged at all.
So far, all life lines such as Electricity, Gas, Potable Water are available to us.

We will have a difficuly in our usual life from now on.
However, It is not so serious for us.

Please do not have so serious warry about us."


Apparently, the "going to illness" is unrelated to the ongoing tragedy.

HR
 
Radio news report with the top guy (you could hear him underneath the translator) was roughly: "We are operating as if a melt-down has occurred. We can't see it." Makes sense. They also have treated eight people for radiation exposure, but they were "not showing symptoms", and the magic word "poisoning" wasn't used. Sounds like core damage has occurred inside the main containment, they're still pumping a lot of water, and can't assess the damage inside yet. As long as they're willing to release pressure (including radioactive steam) they'll continue to keep relative control of it, but it sounds like it's the usual trade-off of how much water they can pump against the pressure without dumping the pressure out of the containment. Sucky call to have to make, but it's a pretty academic one... Pressure gauge says the core is going to pop, you vent. Bummer they can't get it cooled down. Still suggests major damage to the high pressure pumping system or a breach of the core and/or a coolant/water loop that's leaking water in such a way that they can't keep the reactor rods properly covered with coolant.

Pumping in seawater w/Boron means that reactor will never be used again. Seawater too corrosive, regardless of whether meltdown really occurred.

Meltdown will not create an explosion, but a huge mass of radioactive material - if hot enough and uncontrolled, it can "melt" or "burn" the building (there is some temperature at which anything will burn or turn to vapor).

Interesting note: this reactor is 40 years old, and was within a couple of months of the end of it's operating license - it was to be shut down in the near future (license renewal is possible, but complex in terms of inspections & standards).
 
It's important to note that the Chernobyl reactor design is completely different from a boiling water reactor. You really can't compare the Chernobyl accident to what's happening how.

To add, something that seems to be overlooked in the media is that all the nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-Chi site shutdown automatically as designed when the earthquake occurred. The problems began when backup power was later lost, presumably due to the tsunami flooding the emergency generators (bad design oversight, imho) and decay heat removal capability in the cores was compromised. The Chernobyl reactor was in an operating state when its accident occurred and involved a sudden surge of power generation in the core.

The Japanese plant staff can get a reasonable idea of the extent of core damage monitoring the gaseous effluent. Elevated levels of hydrogen and the presence of other fission product elements are indicative of fuel pin cladding (zircaloy) damage but not necessarily fuel pellet melting.

Wikipedia has a discussion of the temperature effects on fuel during a core-related accident.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavior_of_nuclear_fuel_during_a_reactor_accident

Some differences to keep in mind, imho.

Three Mile Island is/was a pressurized water reactor design in which the core is normally completely submerged in liquid water (single phase flow under pressure) during operation and during normal shutdown conditions. The reactor automatically shut down but core damage resulted when decay heat removal capability was compromised by a combination of human errors and equipment malfunctions.

Chernobyl is/was a water cooled reactor design which uses graphite as part of the power control scheme (neutron moderation) during normal operation. The accident occurred as a result of deliberate actions to bypass built-in safety features (procedural and equipment-related) and inadequacies in a special test procedure. The dispersal of radioactive material during its event was exacerbated by burning graphite.

The Japanese reactors at the Fukushima Dai-Chi site are boiling water reactors in which, as the name implies, the core is partially immersed in liquid water and partially surrounded by a steam/water mix (two-phase flow under pressure) during normal operation. During normal shutdown the core is completely flooded with liquid water.

I give credit to the Japanese for pre-emptively pumping seawater into a 40 year-old power plant to ensure adequated decay heat removal. They didn't lose a lot of precious time trying to come up with a way to save the equipment. Clean-up is going to be a multi-year effort, but I believe they made the best decision given the circumstances. The plant staff is still in the middle of the crisis addressing the other affected units and I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't more seawater being pumped before the situation is stablized.

FWIW, most, if not all, U.S. nuclear power plants have the ability to flood the reactor containment building with water if all other means of decay heat removal fail. Also, hydrogen gas is often used to cool the main generator during normal operation and a rupture of one of those lines can result in turbine building fire which may explain the first reported incident of fire at the power station.


A layman's explanation of what is known so far regarding the Fukushima reactor issues:

http://theenergycollective.com/barr...d-accurate-explanation?ref=node_related_posts
 
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A cross-post from Babes and Airplanes forum, from Denny/Stache, the Investigator in the Oakland office:

"I would like to thank you all for your prayers for my wife who is in Japan at very riding this earthquake out.

As of this morning it seems Ritsuko is okay. We were talking on the telephone when the earthquake hit and she screamed and the phone went dead, that was at 9:45 PM my time. I was up all night and after several hours was able to talk with Ritsuko again. Our house located in Takahata Yamagata just over the mountain to Sendai that took the direct hit. The good news is our house seems undamaged, but the power is still out this morning. I was able to contact all of my wifes family except the ones that live in Sendai, we have had no contact with them yet.

This is a living hell sitting here in Northern California with my wife scared to death in Japan by herself right now. Our only lifeline is the telephone which I call every hour when I can get through." <End of post>

HR
 
That's a really good summary.

It all boils down to void coefficients (no pun intended). Chernobyl's RBMKs had very high positive void coefficients, and that's not not at all safe. Negative void coefficients in BWRs are inherently much safer.
 
The best picture so far, imho

_51656627_011518212-1.jpg


Hiromitsu Shinkawa, 60, is rescued from the floating roof of his house after being swept 15km (nine miles) out to sea by the tsunami.

Can you imagine?
 
Have been watching various videos today and realizing that the death toll is going to mount significantly over the next few weeks, not from the direct results of the tsunami, but because there are now reports of cities with up to one million residents without adequate drinking water and eventually food. Unimaginable horrors await far too many people in Japan.

My wife, a nurse, was staring in shock at the reports of one city's hospital which had water up to the 4th floor of a five story hospital and has now been without power for days. Her direct quote was "Anyone on life support there is now dead. You can only hand-bag patients on ventilators for so long before you run out of people to squeeze the bags. Even other patients can volunteer to help, but at some point those people are lost and you move on in 100% triage mode." She had read similar reports from New Orleans from one hospital, sweltering heat, no power... At some point you're risking the lives of the medical staff.

Some of the 1st person video of the tsunami is both incredible and terrifying to imagine standing there watching the water rise and buildings float past you if you were lucky enough to be on high ground.

One lady's interview was chilling. "I survived but I don't know yet if that's good or bad."
 
Crap. AP just reported that the plant workers are evacuating -- there were also reports that today's hydrogen explosion may have damaged the containment around the core in that reactor.

Only seen that one report but that'll leave Reactors 1 & 3 without anyone to monitor their status. Leave the pumps blasting away and bail? Yikes.

Very very bad, if true. Looking for more references...
 
Crap. AP just reported that the plant workers are evacuating -- there were also reports that today's hydrogen explosion may have damaged the containment around the core in that reactor.

Only seen that one report but that'll leave Reactors 1 & 3 without anyone to monitor their status. Leave the pumps blasting away and bail? Yikes.

Very very bad, if true. Looking for more references...

http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/information-on-the-japanese-earthquake-and-reactors-in-that-region/

>>> "TEPCO has evacuated some workers from all three Fukushima reactors with the exception of approximately 50 workers involved in sea water pumping activities into the reactors as part of emergency cooling efforts."


I feel for those guys - you know they are busting their @@@@@ and may or may not know if they even have any family left.
 
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BBC is reporting significantly higher radiation levels and concerns that the primary containment structure has been damaged. This is not good.
 
BBC is reporting significantly higher radiation levels and concerns that the primary containment structure has been damaged. This is not good.

Not good at all. If they were dumping steam into the suppression pool (the torus in a Mk. 1 containment) and let the pool temp get too high (or let the water level in the suppression pool get too low), they could cause pressure oscillations that could fracture the torus. Kind of similar to what happens when condensate in a steam line re-flashes into steam - like the steam explosion in NYC a few years ago.

Too early to tell what's happened, though...
 
BBC is reporting significantly higher radiation levels and concerns that the primary containment structure has been damaged. This is not good.

I've been trying to match up the reporting times to see what's new and what's already been reported on other sources. I really don't like when one news source says what another is reporting, instead of reporting it themselves. I'm not having much luck with that, but the link I included a couple posts ago seems to be updating regularly and does have a good timestamp. I don't know the time of the BBC article you were reading.

The NEI article (9:40pm ET) says there is some kind of "defect" of the containment vessel of #2 reactor.
 
We have 3 such reactors of identical design in Illinois- Two in the Quad cities, and one in Joliet.

Water is the weak link in all of them. This could be bad as the gas spreads north to Alaska.....

And as for Sendai, we're all thinking Chernoble. My sympathies.....
 
Fortunately all of my contacts in Tokyo and Yokohama are accounted for with little relative damage. Unfortunately the damage is still occurring (reactors) and the total loss of life and property won't be known for weeks to come if not longer.
 
Thank you to those with knowledge about the reactors for providing information that is understandable.
 
I've been trying to match up the reporting times to see what's new and what's already been reported on other sources. I really don't like when one news source says what another is reporting, instead of reporting it themselves. I'm not having much luck with that, but the link I included a couple posts ago seems to be updating regularly and does have a good timestamp. I don't know the time of the BBC article you were reading.

The NEI article (9:40pm ET) says there is some kind of "defect" of the containment vessel of #2 reactor.

It's not just the reporting times. Within the US press, in particular, the actual reporting/news stories & headlines are tilted by including, excluding, or emphasizing certain facts.

Here are the headlines I see right now (via Droid):

Washington Post: "Nuclear crisis deepens amid third explosion, fire at power plant"

WSJ: "Officials report progress at plant, too early to declare disaster averted"

NYT: "Workers strain to retake control after blast and fire at Japan plant"


Fear mongering? Downplaying the threat? Political bias? At least one of those publications had clearly-marked opinion content demonizing nuclear power (titled "Bargain with the Devil?"). I also noted in the radio and TV coverage that there are bountiful amounts of interviews and sound bites from representatives of organizations opposed to nuclear power (including one that was labeled just "nuclear expert" without any affiliation or description of qualifications..... much as ex-Mayor Daley might be called "aviation expert"), but virtually none representing industry. Coincidence? Intentional? Simple lack of availabilty of folks from NEI or other industry groups? Or is industry just being cautions until they know facts?

The truth is probably somewhere in between. The articles are just as different as the headlines - in other words, you need to read multiple sources to get most of the facts and draw your own conclusions.
 
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Not to go SZ here, but a certain element wants to both reduce carbon emissions yet doesn't want nuclear power either? What are we going to do, pray for the Tooth Fairy to give us th energy we require to live?
 
I think major releases of radioactive material will further dampen the enthusiasm for nuclear power in this country. I'd rather sit in the dark than glow in the dark.
 
The nuke industry knows that this is the time to lay low from the press. There is little a nuke advocate could say right now that would help their cause. I did see that NBC and their affiliated networks have used a disclaimer about their reporting. They have said that several of the reactors in Japan are built by GE, who still owns part of NBC. It is good that they are stating that IMHO. Shows that they are trying to paint a truthful picture and point to possibly biases.

The quake in Japan was something that one does not see very often. These reactors are old and this is going to be a real learning opportunity on how to build one that can survive a massive, once in a millennia event. Hopefully things will not get worse.
 
I don't know enough about nuclear energy to have much of an opinion, but I do know the French have used it successfully for years. They are not, to my knowledge, in an area that is prone to earthquakes. I'd say that is probably a good thing to put on the checklist of where to put (or not) a nuclear plant.
 
The nuke industry knows that this is the time to lay low from the press. There is little a nuke advocate could say right now that would help their cause. I did see that NBC and their affiliated networks have used a disclaimer about their reporting. They have said that several of the reactors in Japan are built by GE, who still owns part of NBC. It is good that they are stating that IMHO. Shows that they are trying to paint a truthful picture and point to possibly biases.

The disclaimers are appropriate. But GE's reactor business is actually owned more by Hitachi than by GE. GE owns 40% of the US operations, and in Japan, it's only 20%.

The quake in Japan was something that one does not see very often. These reactors are old and this is going to be a real learning opportunity on how to build one that can survive a massive, once in a millennia event. Hopefully things will not get worse.
Designs have advanced. Like they have in every other industry...
 
I think major releases of radioactive material will further dampen the enthusiasm for nuclear power in this country. I'd rather sit in the dark than glow in the dark.

I'd rather accept the extremely small risk associated with nuclear power than sit in the dark while we become a 3rd world county.
 
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