Finally a voice of reason

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Morgan3820, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. Morgan3820

    Morgan3820 Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2013
    Messages:
    1,954
    Location:
    New Bern, NC
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Reno
  2. JCranford

    JCranford Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,473
    Location:
    North TX
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    JCranford
    Well, its Texas, so..
     
  3. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    9,266
    Location:
    Colorado
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    murphey
    Be my guest. I believe Dr Fauci and what South Korea is doing to mitigate the pandemic.
     
  4. Datadriver

    Datadriver Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2012
    Messages:
    718
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Datadriver
  5. jimhorner

    jimhorner Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2012
    Messages:
    555
    Location:
    Santa Clara
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Jim Horner
    The difference is that South Korea is testing 5000 people per million while the US is only testing 100 per million. They have a much more detailed picture of exactly how many people have the virus. The US is flying blind. More data means better able to make good decisions.
     
  6. asicer

    asicer En-Route

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4,963
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    asicer
    I believe S. Korea also acted earlier and more decisively than the US. Them having gone through the 2003 SARS outbreak probably had something to do with that.
     
  7. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2010
    Messages:
    17,980
    Location:
    Denton, TX
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
    Meanwhile, the Mayor of Denton, TX has put us in a lockdown. Following this past weekend announcement from the City of Dallas going on lock down.
     
  8. azure

    azure Final Approach

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2005
    Messages:
    8,233
    Location:
    Varmint Country
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    azure
  9. wrbix

    wrbix Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    1,924
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Pilot Lite
    Let’s keep in mind that the measures being implemented are intended less to lower individual risk than to flatten the population incidence curve.
    I firmly believe we will all eventually be infected, but I would prefer it happen to me further down the line when there might be ventilators, hospital beds, possible antivirals available.
     
  10. Van Johnston

    Van Johnston Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Messages:
    1,122
    Location:
    South Texas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Van Johnston
    I'd like to see our Lt Gov put his money where his mouth is and sign a health care directive to decline a ventilator.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  11. Morgan3820

    Morgan3820 Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2013
    Messages:
    1,954
    Location:
    New Bern, NC
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Reno
    I Would do it. If I could get the rest of my life back. It’s not about how you die it’s about how you live.
     
    X3 Skier likes this.
  12. gdwindowpane

    gdwindowpane Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2018
    Messages:
    316
    Location:
    Bradford County, PA
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    gdwindowpane
    According to the article, if I'm understanding it correctly, South Korea is accessing infected individuals cell phone records, credit card transaction locations, and any other location data and publishing it on an app. They strip the personal identification data but it allows others to see if you may have crossed paths with the infected.

    I'm sure everyone here in the US would be happy to give the government permission to obtain/publish this info on an app. ;)
     
    flyingcheesehead and Tantalum like this.
  13. Tom-D

    Tom-D Taxi to Parking PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    32,726
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Tom-D
    I don't believe moving to Texas is the answer, we live on an island.. we are affected.
     
    Tantalum likes this.
  14. NoHeat

    NoHeat En-Route

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    3,889
    Location:
    Iowa City, IA
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    17
    South Korea had a big advantage of testing -- testing very widely, so they could isolate those who are positive.

    Without extensive testing, the next-best tool that's available is a blunt one: extensive distancing and shutdowns for everyone. Not much testing is available here, so the blunt tool is the only one we've got.
     
  15. Kenny Phillips

    Kenny Phillips En-Route

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2018
    Messages:
    3,225
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Kenny Phillips
    They already have it. And more. To be sure.
     
  16. Kenny Phillips

    Kenny Phillips En-Route

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2018
    Messages:
    3,225
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Kenny Phillips
    And the more that it's dragged out, the longer it will take to end. If everyone locked up for two months, we'd be good. But it will go on for years the way ignorant people are acting.
     
  17. DavidWhite

    DavidWhite Final Approach

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2011
    Messages:
    6,433
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    VBP
    The economy demands a blood sacrifice.
     

    Attached Files:

  18. wrbix

    wrbix Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    1,924
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Pilot Lite
    But please understand that “dragging it out” (another way of expressing flattening the curve) is the means to prevent the acute, sudden explosion of cases that WOULD overwhelm the health care system - see Post #9 above.
     
  19. RyanShort1

    RyanShort1 En-Route

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,241
    Location:
    Dallas, Texas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    RyanShort1
    Not me. Chances are it WOULDN'T actually rob anyone else of a ventilator.
     
  20. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    5,269
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    San_Diego_Pilot
    Yes! hell, if you locked everyone at home for 2 weeks than those who have it would either get better or die and those who don't have it would not get it

    This county level piemeal approach sucks, and this governor's advice is absolutely bonkers

    we don't like when non pilots talk about aviation, especially in the media, or when they try to regulate our behavior. Why do we let politicians, most of them have zero real qualifications in honestly anyting, make decrees about public health. Leave this to the data scientist and the health experts, please

    arguably, what we're doing now is the worst. People still going out and infecting everyone but we've also stopped the economy

    if Texas wants to go their own way then I only ask that they completely seal their borders so nobody else gets infected when the state eventually goes haywire.. and have them sign a declaration now that they will not accept or request any outside help in any capacity
     
  21. RyanShort1

    RyanShort1 En-Route

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,241
    Location:
    Dallas, Texas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    RyanShort1
    No more so right now than the military industrial complex always has. Lots of virtue signaling right now, but at the end of the day, the government doesn't innovate and create solutions to problems, individual humans and companies do. Many of the small businesses being shuttered by this are perhaps some of the ones most capable of social distancing, while other OBVIOUS points of mass contact like the grocery stores are happily cashing in on this. It's backwards, messed-up, and nonsensical.
     
  22. RyanShort1

    RyanShort1 En-Route

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,241
    Location:
    Dallas, Texas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    RyanShort1
    Now there's something of an idea! Would LOVE to keep the California and New York ideas out of our state - permanently. Those ideas are way more damaging long-term than this virus. OTOH, I'm sorry for saying that out loud. We love y'all, like brothers, but not the choices being made.
     
    Crashnburn, Morgan3820 and Ghery like this.
  23. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    5,269
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    San_Diego_Pilot
    depends where you are I think. Around here the local small groceries are very strict about requiring distance between people and only letting so many in the store at once
     
  24. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    5,269
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    San_Diego_Pilot
    Politics aside, if we can't come up with a national solution, and we do leave it up to states and counties, then it would be interesting experiment to lock those areas off and see who fares best

    PS - I don't disagree with you at all, ideas should stay at the state level. That's how our original forefathers intended it to be.. if people want California values and taxes they should live there, and if people want Texas or some other areas taxes and values than they should live there, and not have fear of their state being forced to do something their people ultimately are not in favor of

    But that's all I'll say about that. I'd still rather live here than Massachusetts / New York. Better weather and I don't find the people quite as crazy
     
    RyanShort1 likes this.
  25. RyanShort1

    RyanShort1 En-Route

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,241
    Location:
    Dallas, Texas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    RyanShort1
    You should SEE mine! Sooo crazy. Even if it's not Corona Virus, it might be the regular flu, or colds, or whatever, but it's disturbing. Texas is most definitely not perfect, don't get me wrong!!!

    I'm a multi-generational Texan. I was raised different. The rural areas seem vastly different and there are hordes of people you just have to wonder what they were taught and by who. Dallas is not something I'm proud of about Texas, and I fear the other big cities are similar. I don't look down on them, I wonder how they don't see things differently.
     
    Tantalum likes this.
  26. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    5,269
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    San_Diego_Pilot
    that reminded me too much of this:
     
  27. Datadriver

    Datadriver Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2012
    Messages:
    718
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Datadriver
    Morgan3820 likes this.
  28. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2007
    Messages:
    16,966
    Location:
    PUDBY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Richard Palm
  29. wrbix

    wrbix Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    1,924
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Pilot Lite
    Well,....., if we assume 23, 19, and 18 are within measurement error of each other, then this IS exponential growth - a PERCENTAGE increase (vs absolute increase) over each time period.
     
  30. Van Johnston

    Van Johnston Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Messages:
    1,122
    Location:
    South Texas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Van Johnston
    If you start with 100, 23% is 23.

    19% of 123 is 23.37.

    18% of 146.37 is 26.

    Still exponential I think.
     
    wrbix likes this.
  31. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2006
    Messages:
    4,893
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Fear is the poison of our lives.
    Number 3 with a bullet.l
     
  32. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2007
    Messages:
    16,966
    Location:
    PUDBY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Richard Palm
    I think that determining whether it's exponential or not would require doing some curve-fitting to see if the data fit an exponential formula, but your analysis at least shows that the slope of the curve is still increasing each day, so I was mistaken in referring to it as a flattening trend.
     
  33. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    9,266
    Location:
    Colorado
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    murphey
    With such limited data, still looks like a linear increase:


    %
    100 23
    123 19
    147 18
    173

    upload_2020-3-26_10-32-10.png
     
  34. wrbix

    wrbix Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    1,924
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Pilot Lite
    A short segment of an exponential curve looks linear. Agree time will tell.
     
  35. wrbix

    wrbix Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    1,924
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Pilot Lite
    F0C1FEBE-6D87-40F7-ADC0-F6C34879271A.jpeg

    Any three day segment of this curve looks pretty linear....
     
    Van Johnston and azure like this.
  36. Morgan3820

    Morgan3820 Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2013
    Messages:
    1,954
    Location:
    New Bern, NC
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Reno
    You don’t have good grasp of the term ‘exponential’. It is a buzz word that you are hearing on the media and repeating. 23,19,18 both have same exponent.
    10, 100, 1000, 10000 etc. would be an exponential series.
     
  37. flyingron

    flyingron Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2007
    Messages:
    17,854
    Location:
    Catawba, NC
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    FlyingRon
    [​IMG]
     
  38. IK04

    IK04 Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2018
    Messages:
    1,833
    Location:
    Copperas Cove, Texas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    LNXGUY
    I firmly disagree that we will all be infected. Some of us may have already had it and recovered.

    Some of us work at home and stay away from crowds intentionally.

    I believe most of the statistics we hear are made up BS, intended to influence an agenda. There is no way to know who is infected if they have no symptoms.

    Comparing this bug to "The Flu" is a simplistic way to make a statement about how it's "six times more deadly" or "200 times more contagious." It's all fake.

    People want to hear numbers and don't care about the facts. Feeding them bogus numbers serves to frighten them into doing stupid $417, like buying two years worth of toilet paper.

    Even when this is all over, there will not be enough data to make statistical metrics of how many people were affected. Body count sells advertising....
     
    RyanShort1 and gdwindowpane like this.
  39. hindsight2020

    hindsight2020 En-Route

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2010
    Messages:
    4,585
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    hindsight2020
    *Laughs in South Korean* :D
     
  40. X3 Skier

    X3 Skier En-Route

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,126
    Location:
    I19 & SBS
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Geezer
    Soylent Green:eek:

    Cheers