Finally a voice of reason

Datadriver said:
From my limited research, South Korea did not perform the economic shutdowns we are seeing across the US
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

That's the spirit of Patrick's comments
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The difference is that South Korea is testing 5000 people per million while the US is only testing 100 per million. They have a much more detailed picture of exactly how many people have the virus. The US is flying blind. More data means better able to make good decisions.
 
jimhorner said:
The difference is that South Korea is testing 5000 people per million while the US is only testing 100 per million. They have a much more detailed picture of exactly how many people have the virus. The US is flying blind. More data means better able to make good decisions.
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I believe S. Korea also acted earlier and more decisively than the US. Them having gone through the 2003 SARS outbreak probably had something to do with that.
 
JCranford said:
Well, its Texas, so..
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Meanwhile, the Mayor of Denton, TX has put us in a lockdown. Following this past weekend announcement from the City of Dallas going on lock down.
 
Let’s keep in mind that the measures being implemented are intended less to lower individual risk than to flatten the population incidence curve.
I firmly believe we will all eventually be infected, but I would prefer it happen to me further down the line when there might be ventilators, hospital beds, possible antivirals available.
 
I Would do it. If I could get the rest of my life back. It’s not about how you die it’s about how you live.
 
According to the article, if I'm understanding it correctly, South Korea is accessing infected individuals cell phone records, credit card transaction locations, and any other location data and publishing it on an app. They strip the personal identification data but it allows others to see if you may have crossed paths with the infected.

I'm sure everyone here in the US would be happy to give the government permission to obtain/publish this info on an app. ;)
 
I don't believe moving to Texas is the answer, we live on an island.. we are affected.
 
South Korea had a big advantage of testing -- testing very widely, so they could isolate those who are positive.

Without extensive testing, the next-best tool that's available is a blunt one: extensive distancing and shutdowns for everyone. Not much testing is available here, so the blunt tool is the only one we've got.
 
gdwindowpane said:
According to the article, if I'm understanding it correctly, South Korea is accessing infected individuals cell phone records, credit card transaction locations, and any other location data and publishing it on an app. They strip the personal identification data but it allows others to see if you may have crossed paths with the infected.

I'm sure everyone here in the US would be happy to give the government permission to obtain/publish this info on an app. ;)
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They already have it. And more. To be sure.
 
NoHeat said:
South Korea had a big advantage of testing -- testing very widely, so they could isolate those who are positive.

Without extensive testing, the next-best tool that's available is a blunt one: extensive distancing and shutdowns for everyone. Not much testing is available here, so the blunt tool is the only one we've got.
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And the more that it's dragged out, the longer it will take to end. If everyone locked up for two months, we'd be good. But it will go on for years the way ignorant people are acting.
 
The economy demands a blood sacrifice.
 

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Kenny Phillips said:
And the more that it's dragged out, the longer it will take to end. If everyone locked up for two months, we'd be good. But it will go on for years the way ignorant people are acting.
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But please understand that “dragging it out” (another way of expressing flattening the curve) is the means to prevent the acute, sudden explosion of cases that WOULD overwhelm the health care system - see Post #9 above.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
And the more that it's dragged out, the longer it will take to end. If everyone locked up for two months, we'd be good. But it will go on for years the way ignorant people are acting.
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Yes! hell, if you locked everyone at home for 2 weeks than those who have it would either get better or die and those who don't have it would not get it

This county level piemeal approach sucks, and this governor's advice is absolutely bonkers

we don't like when non pilots talk about aviation, especially in the media, or when they try to regulate our behavior. Why do we let politicians, most of them have zero real qualifications in honestly anyting, make decrees about public health. Leave this to the data scientist and the health experts, please

arguably, what we're doing now is the worst. People still going out and infecting everyone but we've also stopped the economy

if Texas wants to go their own way then I only ask that they completely seal their borders so nobody else gets infected when the state eventually goes haywire.. and have them sign a declaration now that they will not accept or request any outside help in any capacity
 
DavidWhite said:
The economy demands a blood sacrifice.
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No more so right now than the military industrial complex always has. Lots of virtue signaling right now, but at the end of the day, the government doesn't innovate and create solutions to problems, individual humans and companies do. Many of the small businesses being shuttered by this are perhaps some of the ones most capable of social distancing, while other OBVIOUS points of mass contact like the grocery stores are happily cashing in on this. It's backwards, messed-up, and nonsensical.
 
Tantalum said:
if Texas wants to go their own way then I only ask that they completely seal their borders so nobody else gets infected when the state eventually goes haywire.. and have them sign a declaration now that they will not accept or request any outside help in any capacity
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Now there's something of an idea! Would LOVE to keep the California and New York ideas out of our state - permanently. Those ideas are way more damaging long-term than this virus. OTOH, I'm sorry for saying that out loud. We love y'all, like brothers, but not the choices being made.
 
RyanShort1 said:
grocery stores
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depends where you are I think. Around here the local small groceries are very strict about requiring distance between people and only letting so many in the store at once
 
RyanShort1 said:
Now there's something of an idea! Would LOVE to keep the California and New York ideas out of our state - permanently. Those ideas are way more damaging long-term than this virus. OTOH, I'm sorry for saying that out loud. We love y'all, like brothers, but not the choices being made.
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Politics aside, if we can't come up with a national solution, and we do leave it up to states and counties, then it would be interesting experiment to lock those areas off and see who fares best

PS - I don't disagree with you at all, ideas should stay at the state level. That's how our original forefathers intended it to be.. if people want California values and taxes they should live there, and if people want Texas or some other areas taxes and values than they should live there, and not have fear of their state being forced to do something their people ultimately are not in favor of

But that's all I'll say about that. I'd still rather live here than Massachusetts / New York. Better weather and I don't find the people quite as crazy
 
Tantalum said:
depends where you are I think. Around here the local small groceries are very strict about requiring distance between people and only letting so many in the store at once
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You should SEE mine! Sooo crazy. Even if it's not Corona Virus, it might be the regular flu, or colds, or whatever, but it's disturbing. Texas is most definitely not perfect, don't get me wrong!!!

I'm a multi-generational Texan. I was raised different. The rural areas seem vastly different and there are hordes of people you just have to wonder what they were taught and by who. Dallas is not something I'm proud of about Texas, and I fear the other big cities are similar. I don't look down on them, I wonder how they don't see things differently.
 
Number 3 with a bullet.l
 
Van Johnston said:
If you start with 100, 23% is 23.

19% of 123 is 23.37.

18% of 146.37 is 26.

Still exponential I think.
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I think that determining whether it's exponential or not would require doing some curve-fitting to see if the data fit an exponential formula, but your analysis at least shows that the slope of the curve is still increasing each day, so I was mistaken in referring to it as a flattening trend.
 
Palmpilot said:
I think that determining whether it's exponential or not would require doing some curve-fitting to see if the data fit an exponential formula, but your analysis at least shows that the slope of the curve is still increasing each day, so I was mistaken in referring to it as a flattening trend.
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With such limited data, still looks like a linear increase:


%
100 23
123 19
147 18
173

upload_2020-3-26_10-32-10.png
 
wrbix said:
Well,....., if we assume 23, 19, and 18 are within measurement error of each other, then this IS exponential growth - a PERCENTAGE increase (vs absolute increase) over each time period.
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You don’t have good grasp of the term ‘exponential’. It is a buzz word that you are hearing on the media and repeating. 23,19,18 both have same exponent.
10, 100, 1000, 10000 etc. would be an exponential series.
 
Tantalum said:
that reminded me too much of this:
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90407014_10215933281195917_2911961726171742208_n.jpg
 
wrbix said:
I firmly believe we will all eventually be infected, but I would prefer it happen to me further down the line when there might be ventilators, hospital beds, possible antivirals available.
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I firmly disagree that we will all be infected. Some of us may have already had it and recovered.

Some of us work at home and stay away from crowds intentionally.

I believe most of the statistics we hear are made up BS, intended to influence an agenda. There is no way to know who is infected if they have no symptoms.

Comparing this bug to "The Flu" is a simplistic way to make a statement about how it's "six times more deadly" or "200 times more contagious." It's all fake.

People want to hear numbers and don't care about the facts. Feeding them bogus numbers serves to frighten them into doing stupid $417, like buying two years worth of toilet paper.

Even when this is all over, there will not be enough data to make statistical metrics of how many people were affected. Body count sells advertising....
 
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