Enough jobs for the student pilot population?

Pilot-To-Be

Filing Flight Plan
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As I’ve mentioned previously, I’m hustling as quick as I can to that 1500hr mark with the proper ratings to boot. As I browse the internet and visit other airports, I start realizing just how many are chugging along the same path. Seems like everyone and their mother are trying to reach the airlines, almost as though it’s the latest craze. I have to wonder, are there really enough airline jobs for all of us? Starts making me wonder!
 
No, not for the ones most get into for in the first place, definitionally. Timing and luck rules the roost. Doesn't mean a middle class living (whatever is left of it anyways) can't be derived outside those positions. In seniority driven lists, there are combinations of age and hiring cycles that yield a career much less lucrative than others, depending on the individual's personal circumstances vis a vis said economic/hiring cycles.

At the end of the day, only you can determine if "gambling" within that continuum of volatility is worth the pursuit for you and yours. No right or wrong answer. Good luck.
 
You’re buying a lottery ticket. The drawing for the winner is in thirty years.

If you enjoy flying you’ll find a career path that’s worthwhile. If you are only in it for wide body airline captain life it may or may not work out. Lots of highly qualified people find themselves on the wrong side of the cycle and never make it to the majors or if they do never see the seniority to make it to the top.

I’m one of the guys that made it to a legacy late in my career and I’ll never see wide body captain. I have to many guys in front of me and I’m out of time.

I just hope to make it to retirement age without losing my medical early, getting furloughed or the company shutting down. At this point I think the primary threat is the medical but I’ve seen some unexpected **** so I don’t assume any permanence to my current position.

Good luck and welcome to the island of misfit toys.
 
It's has all the appearances of a sort of pyramid scheme. The people that benefit the most from the process NEED enough new starts to help all of the CFIs in the "cadet" programs / process pipeline to get THEIR hours, and I'm sure that they are counting on some attrition along the way.
 
You have to decide right from the start if you’re in it for the long haul..... if you are, then as has been said above it’s a lottery as to whether you back the right horse. Then, even if you do someone can come along and tear it apart. I am sure the ex Continental, Eastern, Braniff, People’s Express, Pan Am, TWA folks can pass comment on that one!

I had turned 30 with five employers that had folded to date on my CV, was in an Airline that was growing and making money, converted to the DC.10 as an F/O. Just as I completed training the company was shut down with everyone on the street with 30 days notice. Why? Because an elephant airline squashed an ant airline and didn’t want the people, just the airport slots.

Then the “Law of timing” came into effect and I joined a carrier that is still going and ended up with 21 years in the left seat of international wide-bodies.

Would I do it all over again? Absolutely!

It can be the most rewarding industry to be in if you just concentrate on doing the best job you can, enjoy it and ride it out. Good luck
 
… almost as though it’s the latest craze….!
Uh, it is. At least the latest iteration of it is. But, there’s nothing new under the sun. Kit Darby has been selling a pilot shortage as long as I can remember, and I’m 50.

This’ll blow your mind: there was a time, not too long ago, where 250hrs was all it took to fly for an airline.
 
The airlines are truly a cyclical business.

The time to be jumping onto the opportunity is when the news comes out. As in, already have all your boxes checked, hours completed, certs obtained, etc. The fact that you're currently scrambling to get those things, means you probably will not make the current "OMG, the airlines are hiring everybody AND their grandmother!!!!11!!" opportunity. There are a lot of people who are ahead of you and if you'll notice, there are several articles talking about the airlines cutting back.

However, that doesn't mean you should just give up and go flip burgers. It just means you need to focus on getting yourself positioned for stiffer competition, as there are always openings, but fewer of them. The removal of the 4yr degree that some have touted? I expect that to be re-instated. Simply because it is a way to reduce the applicant pool. Is is not that the requirement is relevant to the job, but that there are too many people for too few jobs. Gotta whittle it down somehow.

Also keep in mind the cyclical nature, that means hiring / layoffs. Guess who is usually the first OUT of the door when the layoffs come? That right, the new guys. Nothing personal, but seniority is a thing. Get in at the beginning of a hiring cycle, and there will be other warm bodies between you and the bottom.

Finally, one thing I can guarantee is there will be a next hiring cycle. The question is how long away.

Conclusion: Keep working on getting the hours, but have a couple of contingency plans.

Best of luck and I hope you make it.
 
I've recently started listening to the "ready for pushback" podcast which is hosted by a guy who is an airline pilot and has a business coaching people for airline applications and interviews. It kind of sounds to me like the party is over. Airlines are pulling back on hiring and classes are filled out to the end of the year. That's not to say that aren't still hiring lots of pilots, but they can afford to start getting more picky again. The days of getting a conditional job offer with 1200 hours and a fresh multi are likely over for the time being. I think the folks who are reaching for 1500 now are going to end up spending a couple years teaching or flying Caravans.

BTW...I agree with your perception. I personally know 5 people who are trying to build hours and ratings to make a mid life career change into flying. I think some of them are going to be disappointed when they hit that "magic number".
 
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Flying can be a GREAT hobby.

Nearing the end of college I wanted to fly jets for a living, beginning with the Navy or Air Force, which would have also kept me out of the draft lottery. I realized that medical school would also keep me from being drafted into the infantry and that medicine offered far more job security (particularly with respect to the risk of FAA medical certification) so that's the choice I made. I've retired from medicine years ago but have been flying consistently for fifty years - and still enjoying every minute of it.
 
Flying can and will be a great career. There are many good jobs outside the major airlines and hiring is going to be substantial. Yes there has been a lot of hiring the last 10 years but many were older pilots who will retire in the next 20 years.
The part I see overlooked again and again is building a proper resume. Work hard in high school, get good grades, go to college and get good grades. Show a solid work history outside of flying and don’t bust check rides over and over.
If you want to do flying and experience things many pilots can only dream about go the military route. That again will be selective so work hard outside of flying. Seeing a trend in what I post? Getting the top jobs in any industry requires work and performance. Don’t expect because you got a bunch of hours but did little else that doors to the best jobs will be wide open.
 
Uh, it is. At least the latest iteration of it is. But, there’s nothing new under the sun. Kit Darby has been selling a pilot shortage as long as I can remember, and I’m 50.

This’ll blow your mind: there was a time, not too long ago, where 250hrs was all it took to fly for an airline.
Yep. I still remember looking at my logbook on the way to my first airline interview and thinking there was no way I was getting hired.

B-727 flight engineer ground school with ~800 hours total time was eye opening.

I feel bad for the guys now. That 1500 hour/RATP **** is dumb.
 
This 48 year old is one of those guys chasing the 1500 hrs and running away from the healthcare sector. lol
I am hopeful I make it because I freaking love flying. Like I want to fly every day and all the time. Just hit 666 hours and averaging about 15 hrs/week which I need to bump up but my day job is taking a lot of my time.
 
I am not terribly worried about becoming a wide body captain. I am very content settling for major airline FO. I also have a day job that I’m content with, so if I have to continue working in my career now for a while longer that’s OK and I’m fortunate in that regard. I understand as well that there will always be people ahead of me and behind me, I’m not trying to race anyone, I’m just hoping I can jump into the airline world at some point down the road.
 
This 48 year old is one of those guys chasing the 1500 hrs and running away from the healthcare sector. lol
I am hopeful I make it because I freaking love flying.

I am very content settling for major airline FO.


Guys, keep in mind that airlines aren't the only flying gig around, and sometimes might not be the best.

Back in the 80s a co-worker's husband was a pilot. He flew a chopper for the sheriff's office for a while, then got a job flying for the DEA. Next he got a corporate job, trying all the while to get hired by a major airline. Finally made it and got hired by Eastern around 1987. Yeah, that worked out well.... (Eastern went bankrupt in 1989.)

Ask yourself which you really want to do: fly for a living, or work for an airline. There are many ways to achieve the former and lots of fallback opportunities if one doesn't pan out. I suggest you keep an open mind and consider all options.
 
Try not to let your push for hours lead you to take unnecessary risks, as apparently happened to this guy:

 
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’m hustling as quick as I can to that 1500hr mark with the proper ratings to boot. As I browse the internet and visit other airports, I start realizing just how many are chugging along the same path. Seems like everyone and their mother are trying to reach the airlines, almost as though it’s the latest craze. I have to wonder, are there really enough airline jobs for all of us? Starts making me wonder!
Today? Notwithstanding a global recession there will be enough airline hiring to absorb the current hour builders, but hiring is not nearly as robust as 18 months ago. People starting from scratch with training? The may be looking an at an extended period to be hired.

The only constant in our lives is change. AI is coming to every industry and the airlines will not need the number of pilots it has today. The FO will go the way of the flight engineer.

There are people who will say the FAA will not get rid of FOs. That may be true, but they work for the govt and airlines lobbying Congress will get it done.
 
I did some part time charter work,enjoyed it for the experience and joy of flying a turbo prop.
 
Uh, it is. At least the latest iteration of it is. But, there’s nothing new under the sun. Kit Darby has been selling a pilot shortage as long as I can remember, and I’m 50.

This’ll blow your mind: there was a time, not too long ago, where 250hrs was all it took to fly for an airline.

Not in the past 25 years. when I was looking, yes legally you could fly for the airline with 250hrs. Practically no airline would look it you if you didn't have 800hrs and 200hrs multi time. Even then the advice I got was the best way to get hired was to be Non-white and Female, so they could fill their diversity slots.

Brian
 
Guys, keep in mind that airlines aren't the only flying gig around, and sometimes might not be the best.

Back in the 80s a co-worker's husband was a pilot. He flew a chopper for the sheriff's office for a while, then got a job flying for the DEA. Next he got a corporate job, trying all the while to get hired by a major airline. Finally made it and got hired by Eastern around 1987. Yeah, that worked out well.... (Eastern went bankrupt in 1989.)

Ask yourself which you really want to do: fly for a living, or work for an airline. There are many ways to achieve the former and lots of fallback opportunities if one doesn't pan out. I suggest you keep an open mind and consider all options.
Tell us about all of your experience in professional piloting.
 
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’m hustling as quick as I can to that 1500hr mark with the proper ratings to boot. As I browse the internet and visit other airports, I start realizing just how many are chugging along the same path. Seems like everyone and their mother are trying to reach the airlines, almost as though it’s the latest craze. I have to wonder, are there really enough airline jobs for all of us? Starts making me wonder!
I'm not on the professional track but as an observer on a number of pilot job forums I've seen some anecdotal evidence that the market is saturated.
One really stood out a couple months ago when a guy posted an opportunity for ferry work to fly a C150 from the midwest to the north east, and like 75+ people responded for the job posting their creds. A few even offering to help the lucky pilot by flying "second in command" for free if they can somehow log PIC.

To me it doesn't sound like a market awash with excess opportunity. But like most jobs I'm sure opportunity will always exist for those who are most dedicated to making it happen.
 
Tell us about all of your experience asking irrelevant questions.

LOL. If someone wanted to be a doctor would they go ask a plumber about the profession? Or is it the plumber got a first aid merit badge in scouts, so he’s now qualified to speak of various medical careers?
 
LOL. If someone wanted to be a doctor would they go ask a plumber about the profession? Or is it the plumber got a first aid merit badge in scouts, so he’s now qualified to speak of various medical careers?
If it was that black and white... sure.
But relaying a personal story about a colleague's spouse finding a satisfying career outside the airlines is hardly the same as claiming to provide expert counsel on all the career options available in the industry.
And suggesting other people might find a similar path desirable is not advice that can only be credibly dispensed by longtime career pilots.
 
If it was that black and white... sure.
But relaying a personal story about a colleague's spouse finding a satisfying career outside the airlines is hardly the same as claiming to provide expert counsel on all the career options available in the industry.
And suggesting other people might find a similar path desirable is not advice that can only be credibly dispensed by longtime career pilots.
Lots missing in the details of that "advice".
 

Excerpt:

In a recent briefing to pilots viewed by AirlineGeeks, company vice president of flight operations Russ Moore said that American plans to hire 1,300 pilots this year. In 2023, the airline hired around 2,300.​
Moore cited “delivery delays from Boeing” among the reasons for the reduction but noted that 2024 is still poised to be the airline’s third-highest year for pilot hiring on record. In addition, he said the company plans to pause new hire classes in June, July, August, and potentially in December.​
 
Pilot hiring has always been cyclical and always will be. In the last few years if you had the 1500 hours and could fog a mirror you would get hired.
Things are slowing, though certainly not stopping, so the airlines and are going to start being a bit more picky.
It could get to the point where you feel damn lucky to get a job flying freight in ragged out old 1900s in the freezing cold. BUT, the pendulum will eventually reverse again!
 
LOL. If someone wanted to be a doctor would they go ask a plumber about the profession? Or is it the plumber got a first aid merit badge in scouts, so he’s now qualified to speak of various medical careers?

I realize you enjoy picking arcane things to argue about, but this line of argument? "Only someone in the industry can say there are other career opportunities in aviation besides being an airline pilot"?

I've come to expect better from you.

But, I'll take up the gauntlet and say "I have no professional experience as a pilot and I can say with absolute certainty there are careers in aviation besides an airline pilot". Prove me wrong.
 
@Doc Holliday

It might behoove you to understand a post before you attempt to reply to it.

LOL. If someone wanted to be a doctor would they go ask a plumber about the profession? Or is it the plumber got a first aid merit badge in scouts, so he’s now qualified to speak of various medical careers?

If the plumber personally knows a doctor or nurse (or pharmacist or dentist or orthodontist or etc...) ? Why not listen to the plumber?
 
@Doc Holliday

It might behoove you to understand a post before you attempt to reply to it.



If the plumber personally knows a doctor or nurse (or pharmacist or dentist or orthodontist or etc...) ? Why not listen to the plumber?

No, I get all my information from SGOTI with little to no experience on the topic. But he heard a good story once. :rolleyes:

 
Sheriff Dept flying jobs. Most require you to be a LEO first. So unless you are willing to go the LEO route, then hope they give you a slot in their aviation department, that jobs a long shot. Plus, pay is hardly above what an LEO makes, and depending on the sheriff and politics, if a new sheriff is elected, your pilot job may go to one of his people and you are back in a patrol car.

DEA. Yep, they have pilot jobs. One must qualify as a DEA Agent first, so there are several requirements for federal law enforcement. Then, a new hire DEA pilot doesn't get his pick of duty locations, and goes to the bottom of the list. Many of those locations are undesirable to live, and may require being assigned there for years before having enough seniority to move up. And inter agency politics come into play. Just because you have seniority, doesn't mean is an opening in a popular location comes open you will get it.

Corporate jobs? That runs the gamut, but usually takes networking. While some corporate work is good, on the flip side some are really bad. Recently had an associate that took a corporate position in a city where he really wanted to relocate. He sold his home, moved the wife and kids halfway across the country and he thought he found his perfect situation. 3 months later they sold the airplane and laid him off. He now flies for an airline.

Yep, there are other flying jobs outside of 121. I've known a few that went that route, such as ISR. ISR pays really well, but requires long periods of being gone, plus the entry requirements can be challenging and probably on par with getting into 121.
 
There are very few flying jobs that offer the money and QOL of a legacy airline job with a few years of seniority. Top tier corporate job, maybe, but those are very hard to get, and those can change in a heartbeat.

Regarding AI replacing pilots, both United and Delta have requirements in their collective bargaining agreements that two pilots are on the flight deck at all times. American doesn't, for some reason, and I'm not sure what the other airlines have. Not that it can't change at some point, but it's going to take a lot of work that may not be financially worth it for the airline.
 
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Many industries have more individuals pursuing them than there are jobs available. The trick is standing out from the pack (in a good way).
 
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