COVID19: Social Distancing might last to 2022

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by AggieMike88, Apr 15, 2020.

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  1. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
    Unknown if it has to be as drastic as we are doing know, but following the cautionary basics might make sense.

     
  2. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Touchdown! Greaser!

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    So, the point of social distancing is to "flatten the curve", correct? The whole point of "flattening the curve" is to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, correct? But I am hearing stories that in many places, if not most places, the healthcare system is by no means overwhelmed. In other words, people are not being hospitalized in the vast numbers predicted. So why flatten the curve if it is just prolonging the pain, so to say? Why not ease the restrictions a bit?

    I have always understood a certain percentage of the people WILL contract Covid-19 or whatever they want to call it. Why prolong the pain if the healthcare system is capable of treating more cases than are being presented? Open up the economy for those of us whose risk factor is pretty low and get on with it. Our economy cannot tolerate too much more of this before we have a total collapse. That is not beneficial to anybody.
     
  3. Juliet Hotel

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    The comment in the last 30 seconds is significant. If we learn there are more infections than we're currently aware, the numbers will change. I think its very likely there are far more infections than we're currently aware of.
     
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  4. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    Probably end up more like two groups, known exposed and not, once widespread testing becomes available.

    And then certain low risk groups will simply seek exposure to get their “freedom papers” if government continues forced distancing.

    No reason to distance if you have immunity.

    A ways off from that — but it’s coming if exposure means long term immunity for survivors.

    Might as well wrap our heads around it. But lots of folks are still wrapping their heads around forced distancing right now.

    It’ll take a while to bump this next stage into their conscious thoughts about “later”.

    People made fun of the spring breakers and mocked some of them dying, but the rest — this thing is over with for them.

    They were selfish at the beginning and didn’t help slow the spread, but their position will eventually become a new source of envy further down the flight log.

    Can’t catch it anymore? Back to work and normal life for you, then...

    Already seeing some survivor stories where they’re wearing masks and such in public simply so they don’t have to explain it. They don’t need them.
     
  5. PeterNSteinmetz

    PeterNSteinmetz En-Route PoA Supporter

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    I am not aware of any current academic studies which show that the current coercive government imposed measures have been responsible even for the existing decrease in the exponential growth rate.

    What Kissler et al showed and was just published in Science is that a single period of social distancing is unlikely to be sufficient to avoid over-whelming critical care beds in the US and that if SARS Cov-2 is moderately seasonal, this may make things worse in the fall.
     
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  6. Juliet Hotel

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    Lead time. It takes up to 20 days between exposure and the need for hospitalization. Also, part of the reason hospitals are not overwhelmed is because lots of elective or non-emergency procedures have been postponed. My neighbors wife is a nurse. She was being paid to stay home week before last week because all the non-emergency stuff had been cancelled and they weren't seeing many covid cases. She was considering volunteering to go to Detroit where the cases were so she could do some good. Turns out she didn't have to. She's up to her eyeballs in cases at her hospital now.
     
  7. MauleSkinner

    MauleSkinner Final Approach

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    I don’t know if I can keep up this level of unfounded panic for that long. :rolleyes:
     
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  8. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
    This was demonstrated yesterday in NYC where certain metrics had a large boost of numbers because a particular definition changed.
     
  9. jordane93

    jordane93 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Yea that’s a hard pass for me.
     
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  10. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pattern Altitude

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    I see a lot of very understandable anxiety from people, and sometimes it translates into bluster or denial. Here's the thing. Like others have mentioned, the challenge with COVID-19 is the lead time: up to 14 days from infection to symptoms, then possibly another week (or more) until someone with a bad case needs to go into the ICU. That's why we need to be overly-conservative right now: we won't know for 2–4 weeks whether what's happening now (which we can't easily detect) will overwhelm the healthcare system then.

    Basically, it's like someone offering you a drink that may or may not contain a deadly poison with no antidote, but you won't know for a few weeks whether it did (and by then you won't be able to do anything about it). Best just not take the drink now, even though it may turn out it was never poisoned in the first place.

    Hopefully, most areas will escape major outbreaks, partly because of the distancing and other measures, and partly because epidemics are unpredictable and hit some areas harder than others. But trust me, you don't want to end up in a situation like Jackson Heights in Queens right now, where one of my co-workers lives. When the system gets overwhelmed, it doesn't affect just elderly or immuno-compromised people: if you or someone you love happens to have a heart attack, car accident, or burst appendix, don't expect the ER to be able to help.
     
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  11. steingar

    steingar Taxi to Parking

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    This is a simple thing guys. COVID19 will likely turn out to be seasonal. Most coronaviruses are. That's why we have cold and flu season. Yes, you can get a summer cold, it just isn't as common.

    Let's say summer does this virus in and we see lower transmission. So certain sectors of society have their way and everyone come out from hiding. Just in time for big family gatherings at Thanksgiving and Christmas. Just in time for that mad rush for Christmas shopping. And the virus comes back, and does so with a vengeance. Kiss lots of folks in your family goodbye, and maybe yourself too, lots of young people die of this. Kiss our medical facilities goodbye, if you have anything at all wrong with you, well too bad, they're too busy saving COVID19 victims.

    I'm just hoping that someone in government has thought of this too. If not, we could be in a real world of hurt come fall. There won't be a vaccine until next Spring at the earliest.
     
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  12. Kenny Phillips

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    Such studies aren't possible now. But I'm not being coerced. I'm trying not to get sick and die.
     
  13. MauleSkinner

    MauleSkinner Final Approach

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    More like a drink with a poison that may have no effect on you, it may be fatal, or anywhere in between.
     
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  14. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Like iocane powder, a Sicillian, and a dread pirate?
     
  15. MauleSkinner

    MauleSkinner Final Approach

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    More like colds, flu, and any number of other diseases we’re unknowingly exposed to on a regular basis.
     
  16. Juliet Hotel

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    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Salty

    Salty Final Approach

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    I've bought stock in the company that makes these [​IMG]
     
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  18. Salty

    Salty Final Approach

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    It will go on as long as it takes to make us a soc** removed so as to not break site rules **
     
  19. Greg Bockelman

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    [QUOTE="steingar, post: 2904279, member: 1960”]There won't be a vaccine until next Spring at the earliest.[/QUOTE]

    Has there ever been a vaccine for a virus?
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2020
  20. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    Has there ever been a vaccine for a virus?[/QUOTE]

    This type of virus or in general?

    I mean... polio comes to mind... the MMR combo... etc...

    And for the mutating variety... Various guesswork about which strain of flu will be most prevalent every year ... in the flu shot...

    Bunches of them.
     
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  21. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Call me educated.
     
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  22. RyanShort1

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    It won't last that long. Half of America isn't going to put up with this much longer. Just look at the protest in Michigan today.
     
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  23. crash7

    crash7 Pre-takeoff checklist

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    I agree. However, honestly, what will change due to that protest? Anything? Empress wants what Empress wants.

    I was happy to see people stand up, though. Not everyone is sheeple.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  24. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    I was wondering if you were jokin’ but I could see missing the distinction between vaccine/virus and other things we get treated for.

    Technically all vaccines fight viruses, stuff like infections are fought with antibiotics and such. :)

    The good professor can probably be more eloquent but most vaccines are some broken form of a virus you get injected with that causes your body to develop natural antibodies against the real deal virus, so it can fight it off.

    With these newbies like covid the problem is nobody knows what antibodies we need and the assumption is we have zero immunity.

    Complicated by people having wildly different respiratory reactions when they do catch it. Some percentage it just goes so fast it kills the host, other folks have “lesser” reaction to it and a nasty but survivable illness.

    A significant sized group on Reddit who claims they’ve been tested and had it describing awful respiratory and heart rate symptoms for about 20 days and it comes hard and goes making you think you’re getting better.

    One guy claiming to be an ER doc and his wife beat it at home but both were healthy runners and both experienced odd heart rate surges (tachycardia) of bursts to 130 sustained just standing up from seated at times. So odd.

    They didn’t have home oximeters so couldn’t tell if it was related to blood O2 saturation level. And difficulty breathing like someone constantly pressing on their chests. He had some gastrointestinal symptoms also, whereas she did not.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positive/

    Take stories there with whatever sized grain of salt you like. I’ve just been skimming it for general info assuming some are true.
     
  25. Juliet Hotel

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    Looked at it. Not really seeing where it changed anything or had any impact other than possibly infecting some protesters who weren't otherwise infected.
     
  26. cowman

    cowman En-Route PoA Supporter

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    I was just flipping through the data and it looks like we might be passing the peak now. If that's the case I don't see how they can justify continuing this much longer. The percentage of people testing positive out of the population is super low. Obviously we're not testing enough for everyone to get counted but even if it's 10x worse than what we know I don't see continuing this as it has been.

    I can see advising people to wash their hands and to avoid crowds, I can also see at risk population being advised to stay home still but at this point if we're not able to do everything we normally could by June at the absolute latest, I've got a big problem with it and I think an increasing proportion of people will too.
     
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  27. Zeldman

    Zeldman Touchdown! Greaser!

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    So, if we keep up with isolation and social distancing plus the most important part of staying at home when sick, we might miss less work from catching the common cold.

    Which there is no vaccine for as well...
     
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  28. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    And I just got used to calling you Greg instead of Ishmael
     
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  29. Greg Bockelman

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  30. WannFly

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    I better get in this thread before it goes south.... aka locked
     
  31. Salty

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  32. RyanShort1

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  33. frfly172

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    looks like a bunch more solo flying.how does one social distance and do a BFR ?
     
  34. tspear

    tspear En-Route

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    What I find interesting is the delay on the math; and how human nature does not get it.
    Roughly 0.2% of the population has confirmed cases in the USA. And you have significant portions of the healthcare system at capacity.
    I wish I recall where I read the survey on hospitals; but basically most were down to wither double venting or just a few beds left. I have multiple medical professionals who are family friends. Everyone has stated the hospitals are running flat out, and it is just a matter of time before mistakes start to happen.

    Tim
     
  35. DFH65

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    A vaccine is highly unlikely any time soon and a year to 18 months for a vaccine is wishful thinking. Poverty will kill as many people as this virus so lets get back to work sooner or later we are going to face it head on anyway. All we are doing now is putting it off.

    Couple of thoughts 14 days is the outside from what I have read most people see symptoms in 3-5 days.

    I have a very close friend who's wife had it and he did not. She was hospitalized with pneumonia and is over 60, overweight and with atrial fib. She went on Hydroxychloraquine and Zpac and was home in 4 days slowly improving.

    Stop living in fear. It isn't airborne ebola. If you are high risk stay home and protect yourself but even if you are high risk you will probably be OK. Otherwise lets get back to work and take reasonable precautions for awhile.
     
  36. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    We got started early here. Wife’s hospital went down in total patients well over a week ago from peak, and nowhere except ski country ever overloaded. They were able to transport to mutual aid hospitals.

    I think your sense of overload is likely to remain in densely populated areas for the moment. Wave two, who knows? But we’re still seeing sparse population western states with little restriction and not overloaded.

    Big debate here is going to be when and how much to turn the spigot back on, since we’ve no idea on actual exposure or immunity but every general consensus is that it’s higher than reported but probably lower than needed to slow a second wave of exponential growth.

    We were doing the panic buying thing weeks before it was cool. LOL. It’s essentially over with here, but watching it from out in a State that was three weeks behind us, was interesting. We could’ve rented a car to come home with it full of everything needed back home at the time.

    I also mentioned elsewhere that you can watch the seven stages of grief on friends in later running places. LOL. It’s true. Denial, Bargaining, etc. The whole process. You’re kinda hanging out somewhere close to or in Acceptance chuckling at the folks still getting there.

    “Oh look he hit the Anger stage and got stuck...” :)
     
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  37. cowman

    cowman En-Route PoA Supporter

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    So far the county I live in has only had one confirmed case, neighboring counties with slightly larger populations have only had a handful. I have yet to hear of any deaths and it doesn't sound like the hospitals are that busy- actually most of them are still seeing non emergency patients. You have to go through a crazy song and dance of being checked and re-checked but the point is it's still open and they're not overwhelmed. I don't point this out to contradict the stories others are telling of overwhelmed hospitals- I'm sure that's happening too. That's kind of the point, people in different areas are having entirely different experiences and that's going to shape expectations. It might be worth considering letting individual counties or municipalities have some say in how much they reopen based on their situations.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2020
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  38. FlightofTwo

    FlightofTwo Pre-Flight

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    In quite a few states, not only are the hospitals not overwhelmed, they are at a fraction of their normal capacity and laying off workers. I have several friends who are nurses or doctors at various locations in Massachusetts, Indiana, Georgia, Arizona, Alabama, Nebraska, and a few others. Many are on flex time being sent home for entire shifts, too. The "non-essential procedures" aren't happening, income isn't coming in. And when my husband had to spend the night in the local hospital, he was the Only person on his entire floor. Literally the only guy there. He said it was like something out of "The Shining", creepy as heck. (We have had 4 Covid related deaths since this whole thing began, in our county, so far.) The Mayo Clinic just announced layoffs and furloughs of employees (you can google that one). I don't know about "Significant portions of the healthcare system at capacity" as a general rule. I know it's true in some areas, as the above poster says, NYC, etc. But social distancing better not, maybe can not, last until 2022. At least not for me.
     
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  39. RyanShort1

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    My "guess" is that the (I believe flawed) modelling didn't really give data to the general public about WHERE those mass deaths may take place. I can totally see dense populations being hit worse, but even so-called "dense" populations in places like Texas are actually very sprawling and we don't take nearly as many busses, subways, or trains anywhere. If anything, in Dallas it looks like the lower-income and nursing home folks are getting hurt the worst, which is unsurprising to me since there are plenty of lower income people being forced to stay at home in much more crowded conditions (It's always bothered me that the 3-4 person families live in 10-20 room houses and the 10-12 person family units often have to live in small, 6-10 room dwellings, and yes, I understand the economics of it), except for going out for essentials, where they've been exposed more than likely anyway. The logic behind some of the orders boggles me and I feel like there was seriously insufficient or deficient data and discrimination behind the modelling and they're violating the Bill of Rights in the process, which can't be good in the long-term.
     
  40. sourdough44

    sourdough44 Pattern Altitude

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    I’m already cuing up to go to a ‘peaceful protest’ when one is nearby in WI, wife wants to come too. I’m not a golfer, but feel they should be open with this better weather on the way. The MI restrictions are overboard, heard part was no fishing with a motorized boat? Blocked off stores(paint, seeds) is just to much, but weed & alcohol o.k.?

    I’m leaning towards the ‘herd immunity’ as further course of action. I’ll also get the antibody test when available, see what that 3 week ‘flu’ early February was all about.

    Yes the measures taken were supposedly to avoid hospitals from being swamped. Keep the retirement homes quarantined if needed. I’ll settle for the rolling opening.
     
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