Cessna Twin down in Central Texas

I was just about to say this. We've had some really rough weather in this part of Texas for the last few days.
 
AV8R_87 said:
N291AN - if the flightaware weather reflects what was going on at the time of the accident, they seem to have flown near some bad weather.
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The gentle curves prior to reaching the weather and deviating to the south may indicate hand-flying rather than using the autopilot. Which may or may not have been a good thing depending upon the circumstances.

Based upon the Flightaware precipitation display (mostly green), I'd suspect the aircraft entered an early stage building cell which can contain extreme vertical induced turbulence before much precipitation and lightning has become evident, visually and in near real time on radar.
 
I would put 421 in a class of plane that can handle some weather. This one is a head-scratcher for me.

Another forum had an anecdote about "lost instruments" but... still not sure how that equates to that charcoal briquette landing.
 
From BT:

Well this is interesting… the other 421 was N41106, departed 2 minutes prior to the accident airplane N291AN. Their ADSB ground tracks are virtually identical; it appears that N41106 was IFR, but 1AN was VFR… did they do this as a “two-ship” IFR flight I wonder? Will be curious to see how this shakes out.
 
MauleSkinner said:
From BT:

Well this is interesting… the other 421 was N41106, departed 2 minutes prior to the accident airplane N291AN. Their ADSB ground tracks are virtually identical; it appears that N41106 was IFR, but 1AN was VFR… did they do this as a “two-ship” IFR flight I wonder? Will be curious to see how this shakes out.
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That didn't take long! There were two planes, both were part of a Pickelball Club. The other plane landed safely in New Braunfels.

AMARILLO, Texas (KFDA) - 5 people are dead after a small plane crash in Hays County, near Austin.

The Amarillo Pickleball Club have identified the victims as Seren Wilson, Brooke Skypala, Stacy Hedrick, Glen Appling, and Hayden Dillard. The club says they were on the way to a Pickleball tournament near Austin.

According to the Hays County Judge Ruben Becerra, emergency responders were called around 11:05 p.m. Thursday following reports of an aircraft down in the Wimberley area. Officials say the plane crashed near Round Rock Road in Hays County. The aircraft, identified as a Cessna 421C, was confirmed to have crashed with five individuals on board. Officials say there was one pilot and four passengers aboard the plane.
 
Here are several slices of radar observations with the rough course overlaid in magenta and approximate ADS-B position and direction of the plane for each slice, indicated by a red arrow.

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Here are the icing forecasts for 0330z (plane was at ~17,000’ up to the left)

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And at 0400z (plane descended to 15,000’ near the end of the projected course)

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The freezing level would have been around 14,000’, give or take 1000’. There was also PIREP for moderate rime icing nearby at FL210 at 0255z. There were active AIRMETs for IFR and Convective SIGMETs in the accident area near the time of the accident.

It looks like they might have encountered some light to perhaps moderate precip near to and just higher than the freezing level.

I have not yet seen evidence of a filed IFR flight plan (but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t one). This would have also been several hours after sunset.
 
It appears that continued flight into icing conditions while relying on the autopilot may have caused a situation where it ran out of authority to fly the aircraft and kicked off, presenting a condition the pilot was unable to correct in a timely manner and which resulted in a loss of control.
 
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3393RP said:
It appears that continued flight into icing conditions while relying on the autopilot may have caused a situation where it ran out of authority to fly the aircraft and kicked off, presenting a condition the pilot was unable to correct in a timely manner which resulted in a loss of control.
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The autopilot in that plane may have been a factor in its own right. I have never flown with a fully operational Cessna Flight-o-Matic or whatever they’re called. The one in our 310 was inop before we got the plane. They’re not famous for being easy or cheap to maintain. I don’t know what the mishap plane had for a panel, but a lot of 421s have the original panel. It’s easy to imagine getting behind the plane trying to dodge weather, even without icing.
 
schmookeeg said:
I would put 421 in a class of plane that can handle some weather. This one is a head-scratcher for me.

Another forum had an anecdote about "lost instruments" but... still not sure how that equates to that charcoal briquette landing.
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While the airplane can handle some weather the type of weather can be detrimental. But more important is the pilot.

We’ll probably find out that once again a low experience pilot at the controls of a plane that he feels “can handle the weather” when in fact he can’t. One bad decision after another that leads to a smoking hole in the ground.
 
schmookeeg said:
I would put 421 in a class of plane that can handle some weather. This one is a head-scratcher for me.

Another forum had an anecdote about "lost instruments" but... still not sure how that equates to that charcoal briquette landing.
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Had read somewhere either pitot or static was iced up. Ask @NealRomeoGolf how disorienting that can be.
 
3393RP said:
It appears that continued flight into icing conditions while relying on the autopilot may have caused a situation where it ran out of authority to fly the aircraft and kicked off, presenting a condition the pilot was unable to correct in a timely manner which resulted in a loss of control.
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The flight track produced on the tracking sites was multilaterated (MLAT), so no available/discernable ADS-B out on this flight.

This makes it less accurate of a track to begin with, so there is less confidence of precise analysis. That said, judging by the wavering/wobbling of the track throughout the flight, it does not look like autopilot was used at all. Several recent flights looked similar, but flights late last year did seem to have very straight tracks, indicating the use of autopilot.
 
I believe, the RED in the icing forecast indicates SLD.
 
Rcmutz said:
I believe, the RED in the icing forecast indicates SLD.
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My question is what was the compelling reason to flying in the upper teens with icing and buildups forecast and occurring as the route was over Texas low country? Seems that encounters with thunderstorms and severe SLD icing occurring in the teens have very bad outcomes.

I knew a retired Eastern Airline pilot that earlier in his career flew "the line" in DC-3's throughout the midwest and eastern U.S., and retired flying L-1011's. I asked him how did they avoid thunderstorms in normally aspirated DC-3's before the days of weather radar and accurate forecasts? His response was to stay low and visual, and change plans as necessary. He advised that climbing or remaining high to stay visual and dodge weather in the low teens was not a good option.

Of historical interest, this retired pilot worked for Eddie Rickenbacker (the founder of Eastern Airlines) who when asked informed pilots "we don't use autopilots, I pay you guys to fly".
 
Been watching this one... The pilot is on a couple of forums that I am on. Looks like we was a minted as a multi pilot in July of last year.

Obviously too early to tell but experience, weather, night and IMC certainly play a huge part in this event.
 
I saw a report from another site citing observations that the tail section was found a mile from the main wreckage supporting the occurrence of an inflight break up. What crappy weather to fly in with a piston/single pilot/low time in M/M. Sad for the loss of life.
 
With (presumable) paths like these - increasing deviations and an end path indicative of a steep, spiraling or spinning dive, I usually go back to the conditions as a major contributor. There are many things that can be at the root (icing, disorientation, even mechanical failure), but in the end, if those occurred under daytime VFR conditions, the accident doesn’t happen, not in this way at least because it becomes very difficult to recover from more mundane, singular issues.
 
Low-time multi engine qualified, flying late at night with passengers, with bad weather.

All because of a pickle ball tournament and get-home-itis.

The last several minutes were probably worth it to take the risk.
 
FlightmechH3 said:
All because of a pickle ball tournament and get-home-itis.
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My immediate thought about the pickleball aspect of this crash was my go-to assessment that industrial-scale pickleball is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard of. But that’s purely an example of Hazardous Attitude #3: invulnerability. What idiotic side quest of mine will seem important enough to launch into conditions that I shouldn’t? Hopefully, when I find the answer to that question someday, I remember posting this.
 
Rick A said:
My question is what was the compelling reason to flying in the upper teens with icing and buildups forecast and occurring as the route was over Texas low country? Seems that encounters with thunderstorms and severe SLD icing occurring in the teens have very bad outcomes.

I knew a retired Eastern Airline pilot that earlier in his career flew "the line" in DC-3's throughout the midwest and eastern U.S., and retired flying L-1011's. I asked him how did they avoid thunderstorms in normally aspirated DC-3's before the days of weather radar and accurate forecasts? His response was to stay low and visual, and change plans as necessary. He advised that climbing or remaining high to stay visual and dodge weather in the low teens was not a good option.

Of historical interest, this retired pilot worked for Eddie Rickenbacker (the founder of Eastern Airlines) who when asked informed pilots "we don't use autopilots, I pay you guys to fly".
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But…but…it’s TURBOCHARGED! We HAVE to go up there!

I’ve spent my fair share of time at 4000 and 5000 feet dodging thunderstorms in King Airs, and also gotten my fair share of grief for doing it.
 
MauleSkinner said:
But…but…it’s TURBOCHARGED! We HAVE to go up there!

I’ve spent my fair share of time at 4000 and 5000 feet dodging thunderstorms in King Airs, and also gotten my fair share of grief for doing it.
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Was on a Texas Air DC9 jumpseat a long time ago who went from LRD to HOU at 2000 or so skirting S. TX TSTMs. Smooth as silk. Tried that once later in a 727 and also went well. Gotta have the gas though.
 
FlightmechH3 said:
Low-time multi engine qualified, flying late at night with passengers, with bad weather.

All because of a pickle ball tournament and get-home-itis.

The last several minutes were probably worth it to take the risk.
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I read NTSB reports about loss of control crashes that occur at night, and it seems more than a few that involved passengers have a commonality. The report will state the planned takeoff was at X, but failure of the party to arrive at the airport at the appointed time resulted in a later takeoff at X. That moved the flight to night hours, and it became a causal factor in the mishap. The GIII crash at Aspen a few years ago stands out as an example.

While I obviously cannot say that occurred in this incident, I would think with the forecast weather, an earlier departure would have been a better decision. A night IFR flight at higher altitudes with probable icing in an airplane that demands better than average skills requires serious forethought and honest self assessment of one's skills.
 
Audio has come out indicating that the pilot was reporting that the pitot heat had iced up and they were on back up gauges.
 
*If* it’s true the pitot had iced up there is so much wrong here. First, why? Was it inop because no one ever actually used it to begin with? Or was it operator error because he didn’t turn it on? Or was that error because he didn’t bother to equate OAT and visible moisture equals ice?

Turbo’s twins and turboprops fly at the worse altitudes for weather and icing. Couple in an amateur owner/pilot with his “big powerful pressurized airplane” who’s several miles behind it in a situation frankly he has no business being in and those links in the chain start adding up.

Unfortunately this won’t be the last time we see this.
 
65% power, 5 degrees nose up (or whatever works in a particular airframe) to keep you flying level-ish. Use GPS to check speed/altitude trends.

But, as we've seen even with airliner crews (AF447), it's easy to get fixated on a bad set of gauges and deep stall a perfectly good plane.
 
You are correct there Doc.

I've picked up more ice in my 421C between 12-17K than I would have ever imagined. Never been afraid to tell ATC that I was going to descend due to icing though. New pilots may think their plane will pull them out of a situation like that.

If it was pitot icing, I am curious why that issue was such a big deal. There are no systems on the 421 that I am aware other than a Garmin auto pilot of where the plane staying airborne is predicated on the pitot system working. I have the GFC600 autopilot in mine and if he had that same sytem installed, the ESP would possibly engage if it noted a decrease in airspeed. The ESP would pitch the plane down for recovery. You would have to hold down the A/P disconnect for several seconds to get the ESP to turn off.
 
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