Bad times for aircraft values???

Garthur

Pre-takeoff checklist
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retman
Just had a conversation with my long time mechanic. He told me that more people then ever before are looking to sell their aircraft. He said that this included private owners and corporate owners. He went on to say that it is much worse now then in 2008-09 during the beginning of the recession.

My mechanic runs a shop that has 3 other A&P's and does a good business.

If this is not a local event then we could be looking at aircraft values dropping because of too many aircraft hitting the market at the same time.

I just had to renew my insurance and the insurance company said that my aircraft dropped in value by $20,000 in one year.
 
Doesn't seem to be the trend here, I've seen 5 planes purchased this year and now residing at my field that only had 78 planes based at it last year. 2 more experimentals are about to start flying too. I can't schedule an A&P or a flight lesson due to how busy it is right now and I know of 2 (3 if you count myself) currently looking to buy/upgrade planes and AOPA bumped the Hull value on my Cherokee up 20% Granted most planes at my field are in the 15K-50K range for value.
 
Our club's practice is (was) to buy a good to excellent airplane with low airframe hours, and no more than mid-time engine, fly to TBO or beyond, replace with factory reman engine, fly to mid-time again and then replace it with another similar airplane.

However, the last couple of years has shown us lower price support for our potential sale, and higher than what we want to pay for a replacement, in poorer condition than what we might sell. So, we've decided to "fly what we own" until we see what the future brings.
 
This is only happening because I want to sell my airplane. Once I have it sold, expect the market to at least quadruple in price within the next few weeks.

-John
 
I have 1800 hours on a 2000 hour TBO engine. This could be the reason for the decreased value of $20,000 on my aircraft in one year, but that doesn't explain my mechanics comments about everyone thinking of selling their aircraft.
 
It's a matter of perspective, if you are selling or buying.

And what you are selling or buying.

looking at E-bay and search the aircraft sold, you see junk is moving at a very low price. the rest simply set and set for sale.
 
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Many owners who decided to "wait it out" have now seen extremely high fuel prices on both sides of the biggest market meltdown of our time and are starting to cave in. In addition to the dog-vomit aviation situation, the net worth and incomes of many families have been decimated. RV's boats, timeshares, vacation homes and many other discretionary assets are on the market, many at distress-sale prices.
 
Many owners who decided to "wait it out" have now seen extremely high fuel prices on both sides of the biggest market meltdown of our time and are starting to cave in. In addition to the dog-vomit aviation situation, the net worth and incomes of many families have been decimated. RV's boats, timeshares, vacation homes and many other discretionary assets are on the market, many at distress-sale prices.

Last year at this time we listed our house, at that time the postal code 98277 had 257 homes for sale. I just looked at the MLS page and saw over 500 homes for sale in the same area.

and some one said " the private sector is doing just fine"
 
Last year at this time we listed our house, at that time the postal code 98277 had 257 homes for sale. I just looked at the MLS page and saw over 500 homes for sale in the same area.

and some one said " the private sector is doing just fine"

Don't know anything about WA.

In my area in exurban DC, we have the same situation, but because prices have stabilized and are increasing. Hammers are actually swinging to build new homes. No one wanted to list when prices were dropping like a rock, unless they were in dire straits. Now mortgages are dirt cheap, and people can actually get one. So listings are up, and the homes are selling at fair prices.

As far as airplanes, I have been looking for a good Comanche for a while. Had one lined up in TX, but the owner got cold feet and backed out of the deal,( costing me my extensive pre-buy$$, but that's a whole other can o' worms.) My impression is that junk is listed cheap, and sits. Good airplanes that need upgrading are overpriced and sit. Good, updated airplanes are either flying, or are pickled sitting in hangars waiting for a market turn. Good, updated airplanes priced realistically sell in about 20 minutes.
 
Is it fair to assume that you now know that this risk can be eliminated by use of a good purchase agreement?

Had one lined up in TX, but the owner got cold feet and backed out of the deal,( costing me my extensive pre-buy$$, but that's a whole other can o' worms.).
 
Just had a conversation with my long time mechanic. He told me that more people then ever before are looking to sell their aircraft. He said that this included private owners and corporate owners. He went on to say that it is much worse now then in 2008-09 during the beginning of the recession.

Psychology is also a factor of why planes don't move. How many times do we see a bird where the own has dropped in $10K or $15K only to see that money become invisible upon appraisal; it's a strong inducement to not sell.

As it sits on the ramp disintegrating waiting for the turnaround :popcorn: the brain rationalizes with the old investment cliche "it isn't a loss until you sell."
 
1. That's what I've got in it.
2. That's what they're selling for in Tradeaplane.
3. That's what it's worth to me.
4. I fgure it only takes one buyer at my price.
5. Damn low-balling tire kickers anyway.

Psychology is also a factor of why planes don't move. How many times do we see a bird where the own has dropped in $10K or $15K only to see that money become invisible upon appraisal; it's a strong inducement to not sell.

As it sits on the ramp disintegrating waiting for the turnaround :popcorn: the brain rationalizes with the old investment cliche "it isn't a loss until you sell."
 
Is it fair to assume that you now know that this risk can be eliminated by use of a good purchase agreement?

We had one, on a handshake, which I foolishly thought was a bond among honorable men. A long trail of e-mail negotiation where we both spelled out what the deal was and agreed. Even with a written agreement, with great distances involved enforcing, it is a headache. No, for me from here on out the deal is done through third party escrow or not at all.

Some people got no shame, and I'll leave it at that.
 
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Our club's practice is (was) to buy a good to excellent airplane with low airframe hours, and no more than mid-time engine, fly to TBO or beyond, replace with factory reman engine, fly to mid-time again and then replace it with another similar airplane.

However, the last couple of years has shown us lower price support for our potential sale, and higher than what we want to pay for a replacement, in poorer condition than what we might sell. So, we've decided to "fly what we own" until we see what the future brings.

In the 12 years I've belonged to our club the only aircraft turnover has been our low end plane. The 150 was replaced by a 172H which was replaced earlier this year by a 172P. The other three planes are the same ones we had when I joined. $79/hr wet for the 172P isn't a bad deal. :D
 
When I think about buying an airplane, the things that come to mind are 100LL regulation, NextGen, hangar waiting lists and rent. My peers don't even think about airplanes because hobbies, especially ones that are about skill and learning, aren't at the top of their lists.

For macroeconomic factors... they make me more likely to buy an airplane... invested money doesn't do anything, and borrowed money is cheap as it will ever be.

Yet I'm not buying! I doubt I'm alone.
 
Rusty, you are seeing your local market due to oil shale, economics, and young families fleeing there from the decaying Eastern and Midwest rust belt cities...
There are no new airplanes coming to my local field here in Michigan... There is also little activity... I spent 7 to 11 AM there today and a saw exactly two airplanes move... We have available hangar space (cheap), a crew car, ILS approach, and a 5000' runway with REIL and PAPI... KHYX if you are so inclined to look...
 
In the 12 years I've belonged to our club the only aircraft turnover has been our low end plane. The 150 was replaced by a 172H which was replaced earlier this year by a 172P. The other three planes are the same ones we had when I joined. $79/hr wet for the 172P isn't a bad deal. :D

That's a good deal. What's the monthly?

Our older planes (1980's warriors) are $105/hr and our 152's are $72...

Personally I think we can do better. Club has a bunch of cash sitting around..
 
We were just discussing this on Facebook. Right now, three of my friends -- long term airplane owners, all -- are throwing in the towel on GA. The avgas prices have finally done them in, and they're all trying to sell, and getting no nibbles.

These last few years have been simply awful for GA. It's like watching a good friend waste away from cancer.
 
That's a good deal. What's the monthly?

Our older planes (1980's warriors) are $105/hr and our 152's are $72...

Personally I think we can do better. Club has a bunch of cash sitting around..

$75 a month dues. $15 credited back if you fly that month. The Arrow is $111/hr and the 182 is $116/hr. I don't recall what the 172N (180 hp) is going for, but it's more than the 172P and less than the other two. Back when I joined the 172N was $50/hr and anything similar on the field at the FBOs was more like $80/hr (in 2000). All things considered, cost hasn't gone up all that much.
 
I've been watching the asking prices on the PA 46 lately. Some pretty cheap older ships out there that give me a lot of concern on how my 27 year old ship will do. I have been doing a lot of soul searching about keeping mine, I'm just not using it enough. Were ever I end up living in the future, I can be sure that the storage will be higher than here in KS.
 
We were just discussing this on Facebook. Right now, three of my friends -- long term airplane owners, all -- are throwing in the towel on GA. The avgas prices have finally done them in, and they're all trying to sell, and getting no nibbles.

Interestingly enough, oil demand (USA) peaked in 2007 and is now at 1998 levels and gasoline demand is at 2002 levels. The prices must at some point reflect demand. I did a blog post on this topic recently with the chart. For those interested it's here.
 
Interestingly enough, oil demand (USA) peaked in 2007 and is now at 1998 levels and gasoline demand is at 2002 levels. The prices must at some point reflect demand. I did a blog post on this topic recently with the chart. For those interested it's here.

No, they don't, fuel prices have nothing to do with demand, it's a required item so people will pay what they are forced to pay. The market price is set by the oil industries calculations of how hard they can f-ck everybody before a revolution occurs and the speculators that play the game.

BTW, does that figure on oil consumption include military consumption? I remember reading we're going through between 10 an 11 million barrels a month in Afghanistan alone.
 
Interestingly enough, oil demand (USA) peaked in 2007 and is now at 1998 levels and gasoline demand is at 2002 levels. The prices must at some point reflect demand. I did a blog post on this topic recently with the chart. For those interested it's here.

Well, the equilibrium price (or market price) is the point where the demand curve and the supply curve intersect. If you are just looking at quantity demanded each year (just the data points that you cite to), you are ignoring the shape of the demand curve, the supply curve, and shifts in both over time. Quantity demanded (the individual points that you cite for each year) does not equal demand. A demand curve is the plot of all quanties demanded over the spectrum of potential prices for a given snap shot in time.
 
No, they don't, fuel prices have nothing to do with demand, it's a required item so people will pay what they are forced to pay. The market price is set by the oil industries calculations of how hard they can f-ck everybody before a revolution occurs and the speculators that play the game.

BTW, does that figure on oil consumption include military consumption? I remember reading we're going through between 10 an 11 million barrels a month in Afghanistan alone.

Wrong. The "price" of oil hasn't gone up, the value of our currency has gone down. Wake up and smell the coffee.
 
No, they don't, fuel prices have nothing to do with demand, it's a required item so people will pay what they are forced to pay.

Sure they do. It's just not the entire picture. The point you make is that the demand curve for petroleum is very inelastic, but that is not to say that quantity demanded is totally unresponsive to changes in price. What you see is that people change their habits over time, and engage in more energy conservation as a result of higher prices. Sure, if you need to get to work, you will pay what you have to today if you have not other option. But in the long run, you will make choices that will reduce consumption. You will move closer to work, buy a more fuel efficient car, consolidate errand runs, avoid long drive vacations, car pool, and fly less.

If it were true that petroleum companies can simply set what ever price they want, why isn't the price even higher?
 
Every one of us with something saved is in a pickle. The government has no choice but to debase the currency. If we took the entire income stream from the Federal Government, shut it down to zero expense, the income stream would not retire the debt.

So if you have something saved, anything held as cash will devalue when we go to "quantitative easing round 4". We don't even have to raise the debt ceiling to do it, we push keys on a keyboard and the credits appear. Anybody with anything saved has the value of the savings diminished by this strategy. It's essentially an asset tax.

This is exactly what Greece, Spain and Italy need to do, but cannot due to the Euro charter.

The situation is like in Europe in 1880. Population is growing, but the GDP is stagnant.

So in a situation like this, do you hold assets? YES
Do legal, well maintained aeroplanes count as assets? Maybe.
Real Estate certainly qualifies. YES
Shares of Corporations that produce products of demonstrable value Iincluding commodities) do...but they're a lousy pick going into another downturn.

There are no safe havens any longer. BOHICA.
Egypt?
Greece?
Spain?
WT Heck?
 
Wrong. The "price" of oil hasn't gone up, the value of our currency has gone down. Wake up and smell the coffee.

We are in an international economy so it's pretty much a 'same same' issue just looking at if from different points of view. The cause and result remain unchanged.
 
I don't know whether people are looking but not buying, but in the few days since I posted my Apache for sale I've been overwhelmed trying to respond to everyone and keep track of who've I've called/written back with the details they've requested.

Based on what I'd heard about the market I priced her what I thought was more-than-fair. She's undergoing the annual right now, and I was expecting a couple weeks before any serious inquiries came in. It seems the opposite is true. There's three people who have asked if they could come see it just to look at her while it's in the mechanic's hangar -- my guy doesn't let non-owners poke around others' aircraft while it's in his shop, but... it's just surprising.

Of course, all of this could be just people "dreaming of owning a twin" who don't plan to buy, but at the very least there are people actively watching the classifieds.
 
The Apache is priced below half the cost of a brand new pickup truck. It's well within striking distance for many folks. The aircraft that are sitting are higher priced. Thus all the interest.

No offense, but the Apache fills a market niche of "barely flyable" twin, also. It's a time builder.

Up here, it's a marginal aircraft in the summer, even lightly loaded. It's not going to climb on a hot day. It's also going to be hard to keep above Vmc without descending. You'll never level off.

It really needs the Geronimo STC rebuild with bigger engines to make it usable for safe personal travel up here.

I like the fat little bird, but anyone at high DA would be a fool to buy it without the intent to hang bigger engines on it immediately.
 
No offense taken. Honestly, I can't believe some of the non-geronimo apaches are priced as high as they are. Perhaps some are too sentimental?
 
No offense taken. Honestly, I can't believe some of the non-geronimo apaches are priced as high as they are. Perhaps some are too sentimental?

A stock Apache has been a $25,000 plane as long as I can remember, it's what they cost when I bought my Travelair 20 years ago.
 
No offense taken. Honestly, I can't believe some of the non-geronimo apaches are priced as high as they are. Perhaps some are too sentimental?

It's folks thinking the new 1500 hour rule is going to drive many time builders into the loving arms of their light twin. Frankly, they might be right. Time will tell.

1000 hours of Apache time is sure a lot cheaper than 1000 hours of Seneca time.

Personally I'd hunt down an Aztruck, if my goal were twin-time building, but most of them are getting pretty ragged out.

The never-ending "pilot shortage" finally may truly come to pass with the passage of that rule. At least for a while. Depending on how much debt young pilots are willing to take on.
 
It's folks thinking the new 1500 hour rule is going to drive many time builders into the loving arms of their light twin. Frankly, they might be right. Time will tell.

1000 hours of Apache time is sure a lot cheaper than 1000 hours of Seneca time.

Personally I'd hunt down an Aztruck, if my goal were twin-time building, but most of them are getting pretty ragged out.

The never-ending "pilot shortage" finally may truly come to pass with the passage of that rule. At least for a while. Depending on how much debt young pilots are willing to take on.

Not a chance. The industry standard for hiring except for a couple of years has been minimums of 1200 with 200 multi, and even at a time with those minimums the market was flooded with candidates willing to pay $12,000 for their initial training. The 1500 hr rule is just a farce.
 
Yeah, I know and you know that... but there's also twin owners out there who never read (or understood) the changes beyond seeing "1500 hours" in a magazine.

There's another thing going on... Not many new light twins being made... And most of the new ones being financed by big schools who are charging young pilots more money than most people spend on their first house to get all their ratings.

Okay, maybe not that high, but it's all being subsidized by student loan debt.
 
Yeah, I know and you know that... but there's also twin owners out there who never read (or understood) the changes beyond seeing "1500 hours" in a magazine.

There's another thing going on... Not many new light twins being made... And most of the new ones being financed by big schools who are charging young pilots more money than most people spend on their first house to get all their ratings.

Okay, maybe not that high, but it's all being subsidized by student loan debt.

The 1500 hr rule will only serve to drive more quality candidates away from aviation.
 
This is exactly what Greece, Spain and Italy need to do, but cannot due to the Euro charter.

Greece just voted a few hours ago to elect their next "pro-Bailout" government, which assumes their people agree to various austerity measures. Interesting.

Citi and RBS say it doesn't matter, they still have a 90% chance of leaving the Euro in the next two years. Germany wants their loans paid and is already rumbling about extending the terms of the loans.

China decided to stop playing the world's money pump, and stopped their "stimulus". Fascinating.

India decided to go the other way and not slow their economy any further with rate hikes, and held at 8% interest rates while their national inflation is up over 10%. They've got bad problems.

And us... Here's an interesting Bloomberg article that *nails* the root cause of our problems... "People will do what they're rewarded to do."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...tors-woo-dimon-while-they-gut-dodd-frank.html

The article writer doesn't bother going further than using that line for Wall Street, but does mention our "Slobbering Senators" on both sides of the aisle bending over backwards in gushing lust for Jamie Diamond last week. It doesn't matter which Party one votes for, they're both completely sold out.

The only problem with the article is, it insinuates that the Senators are getting paid off, but doesn't connect the dots.

The "Slobbering Senators" fall under the same problem the article claims for Wall Street... they're being rewarded by someone. That or someone has the power over them to get them to fawn over Wall Street, so... follow the money.

Since the Senate is 100% exempted from insider trading rules, I suspect Mr. Diamond knows where the bodies are buried. It's Washington, after all.

And his Board should have fired him by now. So, my theory is that he knows which politician bought what. And if we knew, we'd be outraged.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett apparently agrees with you on real estate. He doubled down on his offer to buy mortgages last week, and is probably rightly thinking that the average American still believes that 30 years of indentured servitude for a cardboard box with some electrical wiring is a good deal. American Dream and all that rot.

He pays a maximum 1.6% coupon for his loans for BH, so his risk is virtually nothing -- assuming inflation and more people born every second. We will eventually soak up housing supply in the long term. At 1.6% capital cost to purchase his cherry picked mortgage debt, there's virtually no way he can lose. Guy is a shark.

Everyone loves his folksy Nebraska charm, but he's ruthless. Not in a necessarily bad way , but he knows how not to lose anything in negotiations. His ploy to convince the average Joe that he really wants to pay more in taxes was truly the most amazing propaganda campaign I've seen in my lifetime.

Sleight of hand to keep the focus away from the terms he can negotiate in his deals. No one else has that power. Second best S&P rating in the world, Berkshire. Keep the focus on personal taxes, no one sees the Berkshire corporate tax shelter complex. Guy is masterful, really.

Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggy" while reaching behind your back for a big stick.

Diamond's getting paid, Buffett's getting paid, Senators are getting paid. Doesn't leave too much left for the People.

Citi and RBS sure seem to strongly want the world to think Greece will default. Wonder what they shorted this time and are going to get caught holding the bag on?

Reindeer games.
 
Greece just voted a few hours ago to elect their next "pro-Bailout" government, which assumes their people agree to various austerity measures. Interesting.

Citi and RBS say it doesn't matter, they still have a 90% chance of leaving the Euro in the next two years. Germany wants their loans paid and is already rumbling about extending the terms of the loans.

China decided to stop playing the world's money pump, and stopped their "stimulus". Fascinating.

India decided to go the other way and not slow their economy any further with rate hikes, and held at 8% interest rates while their national inflation is up over 10%. They've got bad problems.

And us... Here's an interesting Bloomberg article that *nails* the root cause of our problems... "People will do what they're rewarded to do."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...tors-woo-dimon-while-they-gut-dodd-frank.html

The article writer doesn't bother going further than using that line for Wall Street, but does mention our "Slobbering Senators" on both sides of the aisle bending over backwards in gushing lust for Jamie Diamond last week. It doesn't matter which Party one votes for, they're both completely sold out.

The only problem with the article is, it insinuates that the Senators are getting paid off, but doesn't connect the dots.

The "Slobbering Senators" fall under the same problem the article claims for Wall Street... they're being rewarded by someone. That or someone has the power over them to get them to fawn over Wall Street, so... follow the money.

Since the Senate is 100% exempted from insider trading rules, I suspect Mr. Diamond knows where the bodies are buried. It's Washington, after all.

And his Board should have fired him by now. So, my theory is that he knows which politician bought what. And if we knew, we'd be outraged.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett apparently agrees with you on real estate. He doubled down on his offer to buy mortgages last week, and is probably rightly thinking that the average American still believes that 30 years of indentured servitude for a cardboard box with some electrical wiring is a good deal. American Dream and all that rot.

He pays a maximum 1.6% coupon for his loans for BH, so his risk is virtually nothing -- assuming inflation and more people born every second. We will eventually soak up housing supply in the long term. At 1.6% capital cost to purchase his cherry picked mortgage debt, there's virtually no way he can lose. Guy is a shark.

Everyone loves his folksy Nebraska charm, but he's ruthless. Not in a necessarily bad way , but he knows how not to lose anything in negotiations. His ploy to convince the average Joe that he really wants to pay more in taxes was truly the most amazing propaganda campaign I've seen in my lifetime.

Sleight of hand to keep the focus away from the terms he can negotiate in his deals. No one else has that power. Second best S&P rating in the world, Berkshire. Keep the focus on personal taxes, no one sees the Berkshire corporate tax shelter complex. Guy is masterful, really.

Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggy" while reaching behind your back for a big stick.

Diamond's getting paid, Buffett's getting paid, Senators are getting paid. Doesn't leave too much left for the People.

Citi and RBS sure seem to strongly want the world to think Greece will default. Wonder what they shorted this time and are going to get caught holding the bag on?

Reindeer games.

The name's Dimon. You having some kind of Freudian slip or something? :D

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