Pondering future hypothetical purchases and casually and informally surveying folks at and around the two local airfields I have any time at it, has gotten me to thinking. It seems that there are a few distinct groups of thought/people when it comes to ADS-B mandate as it relates to small GA aircraft: -Already done it as part of planned/wanted/"because I can" avionics upgrades/updates. $$ not an issue, fly regularly types. -Will do it, begrudgingly, likely near last minute or even a month or two after it's due...fingers crossed some $500 solution hits the market. $$ IS an issue, but fly regularly, or at least regularly enough that they will comply versus sell the plane. - Won't do it, will just stay out of airspace requiring it/thumb nose at the man/etc. - Won't do it. Will sell the plane, or just let it [continue to] rot. There are economic arguments for this one for sure...the planes that are slowly becoming a permanent part of the ramp aren't likely to suddenly get a wash, an oil change and fresh fuel so they can line up at the local avionics guy in late 2019 to spend more than they've spent on the plane in the previous few years combined. Likewise the older guy who owns (and has owned for a while) an increasingly seldom flown, VFR only C150 isn't likely to decide that a new technology he personally doesn't care about is worth a third of his plane's current value. I surmise he sells. I ponder it all in the context of the effect on the values of the low-end of the GA fleet. Will 2020 be the year to buy a Cherokee as long as you're willing to install ADS-B out (or forgo it)? 2021? Will there suddenly be two price classes dividing otherwise "identical" planes? Will ADS-B be an avionics upgrade that actually gets you your money back at resale (for a few years anyway)? Will there be a flood of planes on the market or is it just as likely that the folks that aren't inclined to comply, also aren't necessarily inclined to sell just because the plane can't get into some airspace legally. Just pondering.