2030 what does GA look like?

Rebel Lord

Rebel Lord

Line Up and Wait
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Rebel Lord
In 13 years what will GA look like? Give me a optimistic and pessimistic view of aviation future.

Personally I think we are at the beginning of a new resurgence of aviation.

Pessimisticly thinking things will just stay the same.
 
Probably about the same, hopefully it'll outpace inflation.
 
In the USA/Europe GA will be much smaller with half the pilot population of today in their 80s and 90s and not even BasicMed able to keep them in the air. Used prices will drop steadily as the buyer population wanes. New designs will wane even more as GA demand drops off which is already a trend (only one VLJ has made it to market).

Eventually the sky will be filled with pilotless aircraft hauling people and goods.

China by contrast will explode GA over the next decade as airstrips get built and their billions produce excited new flyers. And China will own all the aircraft manufacturers.
 
More plastic, less metal, more parachutes, more electronic gizmos.
 
citizen5000 said:
In the USA/Europe GA will be much smaller with half the pilot population of today in their 80s and 90s and not even BasicMed able to keep them in the air. Used prices will drop steadily as the buyer population wanes. New designs will wane even more as GA demand drops off which is already a trend (only one VLJ has made it to market).

Eventually the sky will be filled with pilotless aircraft hauling people and goods.

China by contrast will explode GA over the next decade as airstrips get built and their billions produce excited new flyers. And China will own all the aircraft manufacturers.
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I thought Trump was going to move us away from all this China crap...
 
- Lots of Cirrus Jets on the ramps. SF50 and SF60
- 'Fun flying' will be all experimental.
- There will be a viable JetA engine and it will be a 200-350hp derivative of a boat engine developed by Brunswick Marine.
 
That whole circular Runway idea it will come back around again for the 15th time. People will still be posting on here about how we're on the verge of a flying car even though all of the videos will just be conceptual computer-generated animations. And we will have enough random pictures and parts of SaC Arrow from different postings that we can nearly put an entire photo of what he looks like together. So far I think we have a sock and arm and at least two shots of what I think are different hands
 
Tumbleweeds will start taking over some of the smaller non-towered fields and this will be more common I'm afraid...:(
IMG_1598.JPG
 
pigpenracing said:
I thought Trump was going to move us away from all this China crap...
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The Chinese already own controlling or outright the assets of Cirrus, Mooney, Diamond, CIT leasing, Continental, joint developent with Embraer for passenger jets, state-owned Aero-Engine Group of China created to make their own engines, joint venture between Cessna Aircraft Company and China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Company (CAIGA) to make the Caravan, Citation and King Air.
 
13 years is a little short, but in the spirit of what does "future" GA look like

The Best Outcome:
**LSA finally takes off, bringing more pilots into the fold
**The Vision Jet is a screaming success, lowering the length of ownership of SR22s which will drive those prices down, which will drive SR20 prices down, and ultimately everything downstream of it will come down in price. If that $60K Piper is just too much right now, maybe the same plane at $40K will be a nice ride?
**Airports host more family friendly fly ins, charities, and barbecue events, thereby improving GA's perception in the public
**Accident safety stats get noticeably better
**The economy does great meaning folks have more disposable income to spend on flying
**Vaporware likes Panthera, Cobalt, etc., come to life
**Mooney gets their act together and builds a real Cirrus competitor

The Worst Outcome:
**GA pilot population shrinks as pilots age out
**Aggressive legislation either outlaws or makes the price of 100LL prohibitively expensive
**More airports close
**Cost of aviation increases as supply dwindles
**As costs go up people fly less, lose currency and safety stats decrease
**The "cool" factor of flying disappears and everyone is "piloting" $100 drones with VR cameras and headsets and posting videos to Instagram

The most realistic outcome:
GA doesn't change much. I do think the Vision Jet will inject some life into the market as will the LSA planes, but I don't think there will be much change overall in the cost of aviation or the number of people flying
 
citizen5000 said:
The Chinese already own controlling or outright the assets of Cirrus, Mooney, Diamond, CIT leasing, Continental, joint developent with Embraer for passenger jets, state-owned Aero-Engine Group of China created to make their own engines, joint venture between Cessna Aircraft Company and China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Company (CAIGA) to make the Caravan, Citation and King Air.
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That's why I fly a Pitts with a Russian radial :)model124.jpg
 
I'm planning on spending a few days there in a couple of weeks. I'll let you know when I get back.
 
azblackbird said:
I see myself buying and refurbishing numerous aircraft similar to what @Ryanb just pictured. :thumbsup:
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Even if you got planes like that free you would have way more invested in them than they are worth. Lots of stuff goes to crap from sitting. There is one on our ramp in Brenham. The owner of that Cherokee 180 has had many mechanics come out and look at it because he wanted to get it flying. Everyone told him it is scrap at this point.
 
asicer said:
Does GA look much different now than it did in 2004?
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I would say it does quite substantially actually, I started flying in the early 2000s and this is what is different to me now

*Cirrus wasn't really around

*no Foreflight

*no iPad

*paper sectionals were a critical part of your flight bag, as well as an AFD, FAR AIM, etc.

*E6B

*BRS wasn't really a thing

*Fancy glass was reserved for the uber wealthy and airliners

*Adam Aircraft was the "up and coming" company

*you (or at least I could) rent Piper for $90/hr and the instructor was $20/hr. I am not looking at roughly $130 for the same slow beater and double that minimum for instruction

*CFRP and composite designs were reserved for very high performance applications, sailplanes, and boats

*there were no drones... if you wanted to fly a plane with a remote you spent thousands of dollars to tinker with a delicate machine that you would likely crash on your first flight out

*clubs didn't seem as eager to take your money, IE, you paid the instructor off the HOBBS time unless explicit ground instruction was involved. Many places now charge you "handshake to handshake" which tacks on an extra half hour minimum...

*a personal "jet" was still a dream, not a potential reality

*TBM 700 and the PC12 were still relatively "new" ish

I could think of more but that's what I came up in under a 1 minute. But I do grant you that ultimately we're still mostly flying the same old Skyhawks, Skylanes, and Archers as before
 
Everskyward said:
More people in love with their electronic gizmos, many of which didn't exist in 2004.
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LOL! You right. I had a weirdo that worked with me that wanted to learn to fly. I took him for 2 flights, one day and one night. All he did was sit in the plane and played with his ipad and stupid little gps he bought. I don't think he ever looked outside on the whole flight. I will never take him up again.
 
pigpenracing said:
All he did was sit in the plane and played with his ipad and stupid little gps he bought.
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Did you offer to let him fly for a bit? I have brought people up who were on their i-this, i-that and it didn't really bother me - they're taking pictures, tracking us over the ground and recognzing their hiking spots, etc., and marveling at how fast we're going "150 mph, cool!"

As much as it bothers me sometimes to be with a ground of people who are staring at their phones I think this is just the world we live in now, no sense in fighting it. And it's honestly largely thanks to social media. People had Palm Pilots and Black Berries but those were business communication tools, not toys to play on. I still can't figure out if what Zuckerberg gave us is a net positive or net negative to society as a whole - but that's a thread and rant for another time :)
 
asicer said:
Does GA look much different now than it did in 2004?
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To some degree yes. Airport volume is not what it used to be, or so it sure seems.

azblackbird said:
I see myself buying and refurbishing numerous aircraft similar to what @Ryanb just pictured. :thumbsup:
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And what do you plan to do with them after they're airworthy again? Quick way to get yourself upside down.
 
asicer said:
Does GA look much different now than it did in 2004?
Click to expand...

Since 2000 Cirrus changed aviation for good and now 6000 plus carbon fiber wonders are in the air. And the first single-pilot jets are now flying. Light Sport was born. And The G1000 glass panel was invented and fills thousands of cockpits. And GPS navigation arrived (and will soon replace radio NAVAID). Electric trainers are in prototype. Drones used in the military and soon at Amazon will transform precision strikes and product delivery. But the explosion of AI, special materials and private space companies are about to really turn the world upside down.
 
Everskyward said:
More people in love with their electronic gizmos, many of which didn't exist in 2004.
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Well there were many electronic gizmos to be in love with in 2004. Oh wait, you meant in the aircraft...nvm
 
paflyer said:
And they all look just the same.
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They look a little different, have some more attitude to them. But most radical designs don't catch on, so there's a fine line on pushing that design envelope. And ultimately there are only so many ways to put a propeller and two wings onto a tube

But I appreciate the sentiment, it's too bad that canards and pushers never really ventured outside the home builder world, and with Van's proliferation they'll probably keep dwindling
 
Pretty much the same as it does now with more electronics and the average age of the airplanes on the ramp will be about 5 years newer.
 
Holy crap citizen5000 - I hope Cirrus pays you a lot of money to be their spokesman. You don't seem capable of doing anything else! :)
 
In 2030, my retired self will have more time to fly and see the country, safely outside of Class C (where I visit only rarely now) and Class B (which I am always instructed to remain clear of). So all of you other pilots, please spend time losing out your windows for me, cause I ain't gonna a show up on your fish finder unless someone makes an inexpensive ADS-B box that will replace my transponder, show traffic & weather and fit in the same spot in my panel.

I also expect the midair rate to rise from 2018-2025 or so before stabilizing, as more and more pilots spend less and less time looking out the windows. We will believe it's a perfectly safe thing when airliners are built without windows on the flight deck . . .
 
I forgot: At least ten new video podcasters with CFI ratings will be talking to their cameras in the pattern instead of shutting up during approach and landing, and focusing on WTF they're doing.

And sometime in the next 13 years one of these "YouTube personalities" will gear up an airplane while they're babbling to the camera about their new "deal" available on their website.

;-)
 
deonb said:
Icon will finally release their 8th A5.

Raptor will make a Youtube video of them stirring the paint they will use for the wheel fairings.
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Raptor will be flying this year.:D I'm wondering at 850 + reservations, how long would it be before I get my aircraft? I'd think they'll be able to put out maybe 20-30 aircraft per year, sooo....
 
Velocity173 said:
Raptor will be flying this year.:D I'm wondering at 850 + reservations, how long would it be before I get my aircraft? I'd think they'll be able to put out maybe 20-30 aircraft per year, sooo....
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A pressurized airplane that outperforms a Cirrus in every way at a tenth of the price... Sure that's gonna happen.
 
citizen5000 said:
Since 2000 Cirrus changed aviation for good and now 6000 plus carbon fiber wonders are in the air. And the first single-pilot jets are now flying.
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The Cessna 501 and 551 had Cirrus beat on the single pilot jet front by what, 40 years ?
 
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