20% Wall Tax

[JOhnH]

He's not negotiating. In order to do that, he has to listen at some point.

That is BS that you are just making up.

But why would the Mexicans even pay $1 for the wall. There's nothing in it for them. Understand, while NAFTA didn't provide a dramatic amount of US export trade, it does provide some. For every gain that some local producer gets in protectionist tariffs, we lose more in exports that the Mexicans counter (either by reciprocating on duties or just not buying from us).

Do you have any evidence of that or are you just making that up too? Do you really believe that the Mexicans could win a trade war with us? You seem to think that the tariffs are ends themselves when they are actually the means to an end. We don't' want tariffs. We want them to negotiate win-win treaties. Tariffs are a way to encourage them to negotiate. The treaties we have negotiated have all been "they win, we lose". If you don't believe that, try moving to Mexico and buying a house and setting up a business.

 

[weilke]

All right. Maybe the wall isn't the best method to control illegal immigration. Which method have we used in the past that worked better (besides the great recession).

Requiring e-verify for all new hires would be a start. Look at the industries that hire lots of undocumented workers like construction, office-cleaning , Ag and implement rules that make it harder for them.
One step would be e-verify checks on contractor labor and holding the GC responsible for the status of his subs. Right now, illegal #1 has a FEIN or ITIN for his subcontracting business. He bills out the labor to the GC under that FEIN and pays illegals #2 throug #10 in cash (after taking his cut).

 

[Palmpilot]

I hope this isn't off-topic (), but I read in some thread or another that Boeing gets a lot of its parts from Mexico.

 

[mtuomi]

Do you have any evidence of that or are you just making that up too? Do you really believe that the Mexicans could win a trade war with us? You seem to think that the tariffs are ends themselves when they are actually the means to an end. We don't' want tariffs. We want them to negotiate win-win treaties. Tariffs are a way to encourage them to negotiate. The treaties we have negotiated have all been "they win, we lose". If you don't believe that, try moving to Mexico and buying a house and setting up a business.

The hardline negotiating tactics might work with Mexico because US has a very strong position for negotiations, and Mexico would not stand a chance in a trade war with the US.
What worries me is if the President tries the same method with China. China would destroy the US in a trade war, and to save face, would very likely would destroy the USD while at it.

 

[PaulS]

The hardline negotiating tactics might work with Mexico because US has a very strong position for negotiations, and Mexico would not stand a chance in a trade war with the US.
What worries me is if the President tries the same method with China. China would destroy the US in a trade war, and to save face, would very likely would destroy the USD while at it.

No they wouldn't, with out access to our market China would go into an immediate and deep recession. The Chinese people need to stop accepting oppression and rise up to run the commies out of there, it's long overdue.

 

[mtuomi]

No they wouldn't, with out access to our market China would go into an immediate and deep recession. The Chinese people need to stop accepting oppression and rise up to run the commies out of there, it's long overdue.

Yes. But since there's no democratic process to "run the commies out of there", that's not a realistic scenario. China is more willing to suffer than USA, and China is more willing to point guns at their own people than the US is. China can start dumping their products to Africa where there's a massive demand, which would keep them sort of afloat, and stopping buying USD's would give them plenty of capital to do so. No US politician has the political capital to survive that disaster.

 

[Acrodustertoo]

No they wouldn't, with out access to our market China would go into an immediate and deep recession. The Chinese people need to stop accepting oppression and rise up to run the commies out of there, it's long overdue.

Yeah but then where will Walmart get all their cheap crap from?

 

[PaulS]

Yeah but then where will Walmart get all their cheap crap from?

I don't care, I rarely shop at Walmart.

 

[Palmpilot]

Here's an interesting video showing some of the practical difficulties that will be faced in building the part of the wall in Texas:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/23/politics/border-series-texas/

 

[Everskyward]

I don't care, I rarely shop at Walmart.

You may not care, but I'm betting that the majority of people in this country care about the affordability of items.

 

[weilke]

I hope this isn't off-topic (), but I read in some thread or another that Boeing gets a lot of its parts from Mexico.

And sells lots of planes to China. Any hickup in trade with China and they buy Airbus and Embraer instead.

 

[PaulS]

You may not care, but I'm betting that the majority of people in this country care about the affordability of items.

Are "the items" really more affordable? I say no. Many of these companies moving their production overseas rarely lower their prices, these moves are done to increase margins. The real issue with the mentality above is that it results in 96+ million discouraged workers due to a tepid economy and 10 years of government buffoonery. Those people have very little money to spend on anything.

The old timers knew the deal. I grew up in a small blue collar city in Massachusetts. I was a kid in the '70s and my neighbor, a machinist at a machine tool company, loved to talk. One day he told me about groups of Chinese and Japanese visitors, engineers, being taken on tours through his factory with cameras. Some of these groups were led by none other than Sen. Ted Kennedy. Previously my neighbor had been telling me that his company and developed a machine and process that could grind an automotive camshaft consistenly with a 20 millionth of an inch ( 1/2 micron) tolerance, a feat previously not possible. He told me they were taking these groups through the factory, allowing them to take pictures of everything and going through, in detail, how they built these machines. He was bewildered at the stupidity of this and said it would be the end of the company. 20 years later it was, as these people began dumping machine tools on the US market and put the US tool makers out of business.

So no, I don't care if Walmart, the company that used to market its products as Made in the USA, can't buy Chinese junk, and much of it is junk. I'm happy that we have someone who is at least trying get us a fair shake in the world and bring jobs back here. You should be too.

 

[Acrodustertoo]

I don't care, I rarely shop at Walmart.

I haven't stepped foot in one in three years. I hate that place.

 

[Gary]

The biggest issue with Mexico, and China too for that matter, is that they add a 17-19% VAT to everything sold in the country, imported or not. For political reasons, that's been jumped on as the "yuge border tax" added that makes US goods uncompetitive. In reality, there is a difference, but is less than 5 percentage points. The real difference is that the US has a capital advantage, while the others have a labor cost advantage. But since Jack Ma was referenced earlier, he also recently said the US has squandered that advantage on wars for the past thirty years, instead of investing in people and infrastructure. It's caught up with us.

The currency peg issue is another matter.

Just to clarify, if the Mexican VAT is an internal, nationwide tax, it isn't part of NAFTA? If it isn't part of NAFTA, I'm still looking for that reason that NAFTA is so unfair to the US. Understand your point of the US capital advantage verses the Mexican labor cost advantage.

 

[mtuomi]

So no, I don't care if Walmart, the company that used to market its products as Made in the USA, can't buy Chinese junk, and much of it is junk. I'm happy that we have someone who is at least trying get us a fair shake in the world and bring jobs back here. You should be too.

Trade war is not the way to do it, that is lunacy. Influencing Chinese politics so that their middle class can grow and prosper, causing the Chinese domestic market to grow, that's how you get best results. Thinking it's something you can do with an executive order is plain stupidity. It's a long process.

 

[Everskyward]

Are "the items" really more affordable? I say no. Many of these companies moving their production overseas rarely lower their prices, these moves are done to increase margins. The real issue with the mentality above is that it results in 96+ million discouraged workers due to a tepid economy and 10 years of government buffoonery. Those people have very little money to spend on anything.

The old timers knew the deal. I grew up in a small blue collar city in Massachusetts. I was a kid in the '70s and my neighbor, a machinist at a machine tool company, loved to talk. One day he told me about groups of Chinese and Japanese visitors, engineers, being taken on tours through his factory with cameras. Some of these groups were led by none other than Sen. Ted Kennedy. Previously my neighbor had been telling me that his company and developed a machine and process that could grind an automotive camshaft consistenly with a 20 millionth of an inch ( 1/2 micron) tolerance, a feat previously not possible. He told me they were taking these groups through the factory, allowing them to take pictures of everything and going through, in detail, how they built these machines. He was bewildered at the stupidity of this and said it would be the end of the company. 20 years later it was, as these people began dumping machine tools on the US market and put the US tool makers out of business.

So no, I don't care if Walmart, the company that used to market its products as Made in the USA, can't buy Chinese junk, and much of it is junk. I'm happy that we have someone who is at least trying get us a fair shake in the world and bring jobs back here. You should be too.

I don't see bringing manufacturing back here as a plus if the products are going to be more expensive. There are far more consumers here than there are producers (even in the good old days), so more people will be hurt than helped. For example, there are many more buyers of cars than there are people in the auto industry. I don't think we should try to go back to the way it was in the past. Those days are gone. People should be looking for new ways to make a living that are more in tune with today's economy, not yesterday's

 

[Acrodustertoo]

You may not care, but I'm betting that the majority of people in this country care about the affordability of items.

Affordability is one thing but Americas obsession with low quality cheap garbage is another.

 

[Everskyward]

Affordability is one thing but Americas obsession with low quality cheap garbage is another.

You put your finger on it there when you noted it is "America's obsession". That tells me that it's the way it is, and you aren't going to change it by disagreeing with it. People are not going to be happy if prices start to rise because of policies that change. Besides, there are many people who can only afford what you call "low quality cheap garbage".

 

[paflyer]

I hope this isn't off-topic (), but I read in some thread or another that Boeing gets a lot of its parts from Mexico.

So? They can get them from someplace else.

 

[Acrodustertoo]

I don't see bringing manufacturing back here as a plus if the products are going to be more expensive. There are far more consumers here than there are producers (even in the good old days), so more people will be hurt than helped. For example, there are many more buyers of cars than there are people in the auto industry. I don't think we should try to go back to the way it was in the past. Those days are gone. People should be looking for new ways to make a living that are more in tune with today's economy, not yesterday's

We already have millions of out of work or low paid workers who thought just that. When colleges are turning out tech workers in droves for an industry that cannot support it then you end up with what we have now. We have all these kids thinking they are going to play with computers or design video games for a living leaving college with a huge amount of debt and a ten dollar an hour job. With the influx of dirt cheap crap from places like Walmart , people no longer have to save money to purchase big ticket items so receive none of the responsibility that comes with a large purchase, either that or they just charge it to their credit and end up in bad financial status the rest of their lives. Heaven forbid we have a decent paying job in manufacturing for people to fall back on instead of minimum wage or part time jobs.
I am fortunate enough to be training skilled workers for our future who will be able to write their own ticket in life thanks to the lies about education and our increasingly lazy culture. When you provide a service that people need and want but are jot able to do for themselves the the future is looking great for folks who strive to work with their hands and minds. I am looking forward to it.

 

[paflyer]

People should be looking for new ways to make a living that are more in tune with today's economy, not yesterday's

Yes, we will need many robot oilers. Until they develop robots that can oil other robots.

 

[PaulS]

I don't see bringing manufacturing back here as a plus if the products are going to be more expensive. There are far more consumers here than there are producers (even in the good old days), so more people will be hurt than helped. For example, there are many more buyers of cars than there are people in the auto industry. I don't think we should try to go back to the way it was in the past. Those days are gone. People should be looking for new ways to make a living that are more in tune with today's economy, not yesterday's

Flipping burgers? I figured you and I wouldn't agree on this, but those days are definitely not gone. As far as more consumers than producers, that's how life works. The difference though is that those producers create wealth, which in turn pays taxes, AND uses other services that may not produce anything physically, but are equally important. The issue we have now is the decreased number of producers because some academic in an Ivy league business school has figured out the way to quick wealth for a few, their students, is the wholesale transfer of jobs to low cost areas. Unfortunately for many of these transfers the productivity and quality of the low cost areas lacks and the cost savings dwindle.

Nope, I think if this new guy is serious (I think he is) and he can convince congress (I think he can), that we will have a renaissance unlike any in history. Time will tell.

 

[Acrodustertoo]

You put your finger on it there when you noted it is "America's obsession". That tells me that it's the way it is, and you aren't going to change it by disagreeing with it. People are not going to be happy if prices start to rise because of policies that change. Besides, there are many people who can only afford what you call "low quality cheap garbage".

BS! People can always save up money or work with their local businesses to work out a payment option, if not then they are in over their heads in their purchasing. It is this instant gratification culture we have now that is to blame for the cheap crap craze, why save up for a quality item when we can buy a series of cheap disposable ones instead right!

 

[mtuomi]

So? They can get them from someplace else.

Yeah, because the world is full of specialist airplane part manufacturers with excess capacity who are happy to develop tooling and start production right away. The delays would be years, not months. Be realistic here. The cost: billions.

 

[Palmpilot]

So? They can get them from someplace else.

I was just trying to bring aviation into the discussion!

 

[paflyer]

Yeah, because the world is full of specialist airplane part manufacturers with excess capacity who are happy to develop tooling and start production right away. The delays would be years, not months. Be realistic here. The cost: billions.

There are specialist airplane part manufacturers that are only in Mexico?

 

[Everskyward]

With the influx of dirt cheap crap from places like Walmart , people no longer have to save money to purchase big ticket items so receive none of the responsibility that comes with a large purchase, either that or they just charge it to their credit and end up in bad financial status the rest of their lives.

The fact that credit is easier to get now is another issue. I remember layaway from the past, although I never used it.

 

[paflyer]

I was just trying to bring aviation into the discussion!

Well played sir!

 

[Everskyward]

Flipping burgers? I figured you and I wouldn't agree on this, but those days are definitely not gone. As far as more consumers than producers, that's how life works. The difference though is that those producers create wealth, which in turn pays taxes, AND uses other services that may not produce anything physically, but are equally important. The issue we have now is the decreased number of producers because some academic in an Ivy league business school has figured out the way to quick wealth for a few, their students, is the wholesale transfer of jobs to low cost areas. Unfortunately for many of these transfers the productivity and quality of the low cost areas lacks and the cost savings dwindle.

Nope, I think if this new guy is serious (I think he is) and he can convince congress (I think he can), that we will have a renaissance unlike any in history. Time will tell.

I don't think going back to manufacturing is the answer, though. For one thing, new plants will be much more automated, with less need for a large workforce. The person who posted about the need for robot oilers is on the right track.

 

[PaulS]

I don't think going back to manufacturing is the answer, though. For one thing, new plants will be much more automated, with less need for a large workforce. The person who posted about the need for robot oilers is on the right track.

You would not believe the amount of work it takes and the huge cost involved in automating production for a product. So I disagree with your statement. Most products do not have the level of demand for this to be justified. And robots that can just step in for a human on an assembly line, those are probably at least 30 years away. We have to keep it real when we talk about this stuff or bad decisions get made.

 

[paflyer]

I'm behind the president 100%, but I think he is not taking into account the paradigm shift from the hand labor that went to lower cost countries 20, 30 years ago that have been converted to automation and robotics in the interim.

Within 20 years there will be a sea change that will dwarf the Industrial Revolution in terms of shifting what populations do to earn a living. So many occupations will become obsolete that we will have to find other ways to contribute and be productive that have financial/trade value to others. The world's population is too large to support the end of human labor.

 

[mscard88]

McDonalds is already using automation to replace workers. Some think it is a solution to the higher wages fast food workers are demanding. That will be spreading.

 

[Everskyward]

You would not believe the amount of work it takes and the huge cost involved in automating production for a product. So I disagree with your statement. Most products do not have the level of demand for this to be justified. And robots that can just step in for a human on an assembly line, those are probably at least 30 years away. We have to keep it real when we talk about this stuff or bad decisions get made.

I wasn't necessarily talking about robots that can do human tasks or make human-like decisions. That was just a joke, referring to your previous post. But new factories will certainly be more automated with less demand for a human workforce. This has already been happening in the auto and other industries.

Someone made promises to people about getting their old jobs back. I don't think this is going to happen. But as you said, time will tell.

 

[Matthew]

Automation is always a cost/benefit calculation.

How much does it cost to add the automation? How much does it cost to maintain? How much does it cost to replace parts as they become obsolete? How much does it cost to hire the technicians to maintain it? How much better is your process control when you have a machine making widgets all day long exactly the same way vs multiple employees trying to do the same thing?

And how much labor cost is saved? As wages rise, sometimes mandated because of higher min wages, the curves on the graphs change, too.

Here's an example where the math didn't add up - cheap labor wins out over expensive automation:

 

[PaulS]

I'm behind the president 100%, but I think he is not taking into account the paradigm shift from the hand labor that went to lower cost countries 20, 30 years ago that have been converted to automation and robotics in the interim.

Within 20 years there will be a sea change that will dwarf the Industrial Revolution in terms of shifting what populations do to earn a living. So many occupations will become obsolete that we will have to find other ways to contribute and be productive that have financial/trade value to others. The world's population is too large to support the end of human labor.

I wasn't necessarily talking about robots that can do human tasks or make human-like decisions. That was just a joke, referring to your previous post. But new factories will certainly be more automated with less demand for a human workforce. This has already been happening in the auto and other industries.

Someone made promises to people about getting their old jobs back. I don't think this is going to happen. But as you said, time will tell.

Well, that joke flew right over my head, sorry. But to your point and paflyer, you are referring to automation at levels we haven't seen yet and honestly, may never see, but could happen. We need to work in the present with what we have and we have a lot. I know engineers that travel to China to plants where stuff is made and most of the time it is ugly. High scrap rates, selective assembly to match parts, some really dumb stuff, that at the end of the day is unsustainable with a little competition and makes an unreliable product. So maybe one day people will not need to work any more, but until that day comes, let's do what we need to and stay in the game.

 

[PaulS]

Yes. But since there's no democratic process to "run the commies out of there", that's not a realistic scenario. China is more willing to suffer than USA, and China is more willing to point guns at their own people than the US is. China can start dumping their products to Africa where there's a massive demand, which would keep them sort of afloat, and stopping buying USD's would give them plenty of capital to do so. No US politician has the political capital to survive that disaster.

The democratic process needs to come from the people. There are 1.4 billion people in China, they could put a serious hurt on the commies. The commies know this, hence their desire to limit communication in country and keep their foot on the throat of the people. Fear is the worst enemy for these people, hopefully one day they will overcome.

 

[Everskyward]

Well, that joke flew right over my head, sorry. But to your point and paflyer, you are referring to automation at levels we haven't seen yet and honestly, may never see, but could happen. We need to work in the present with what we have and we have a lot. I know engineers that travel to China to plants where stuff is made and most of the time it is ugly. High scrap rates, selective assembly to match parts, some really dumb stuff, that at the end of the day is unsustainable with a little competition and makes an unreliable product. So maybe one day people will not need to work any more, but until that day comes, let's do what we need to and stay in the game.

But to address both this post and @Matthew's post, US workers are not going to work for the same pay and benefits that Chinese workers do, so even though human labor may be cheaper than automation the way things are today, if the jobs come back to the US, the figures are going to be different.

 

[PaulS]

McDonalds is already using automation to replace workers. Some think it is a solution to the higher wages fast food workers are demanding. That will be spreading.

McDonalds is a perfect example of a product that can be easily automated, they have embraced it and I'm surprised it has taken so long. I think the cost of automation became a winner for them with the $15 minimum wage, before that it probably wasn't justified.

 

[PaulS]

But to address both this post and @Matthew's post, US workers are not going to work for the same pay and benefits that Chinese workers do, so even though human labor may be cheaper than automation the way things are today, if the jobs come back to the US, the figures are going to be different.

I don't think they have to work for the same pay. Most of the Chinese model is a contract manufacturing model, which becomes troublesome unless you are talking at least 100's of thousands of pieces and even that is small for what these guys are trying to do. Skill of the worker and ingenuity become very important in more robust situations. This is what killed me about MBAs in these decision making jobs, they would tell me that innovation and skill is now a commodity and all they had to do was throw a little money at a problem. They are wrong, but would blame the innovators and skilled labor when their decisions caused failures.

 

[Everskyward]

McDonalds is a perfect example of a product that can be easily automated, they have embraced it and I'm surprised it has taken so long. I think the cost of automation became a winner for them with the $15 minimum wage, before that it probably wasn't justified.

I think we were moving towards automation long before the $15 minimum wage was being discussed, although that may have pushed it along. How long have we had ATMs instead of a large number of tellers? We have self-serve gas stations (except in NJ), and checkout lines at grocery stores.