COVID-WTF Thread

[smv]

We need to either get back to normal soon or...

Skip straight to the part where we arm up our toughest, meanest family member/leader to go on supply runs. Cut the power grids because people that once kept them running are now just fighting for survival like the rest of us. Stop using cars, just sneak through the woods to the closed stores and abandoned buildings looking for food, meds and, of course, ammo. Barricade the roads into our neighborhood and booby trap the woods and surroundings. Set up a watch schedule so we don't get robbed of our own supplies. Battle with other neighborhoods because they just ain't acting right.

Cause this in between that we're in now sucks.

 

[smv]

You, Sir, should lock yourself in your humble abode and not come out until the “crisis” is over.

Ha! My first 18 years of life were spent fishing the streams of southwest Montana. I would go all day and not see another person. Quite the culture shock the first time some arsehole shouldered up next to me while I was wetting a fly in the Kern River and started tossing his Mepp's Fury across my line.

 

[weilke]

IFR -> Infection Fatality Rate. Of all the people who got infected, how many died.
CFR -> Case Fatality Rate. Of all the people who tested positive, how many died.

CFR is easy to calculate, but not that meaningful. IFR represents the real risk, but to calculate IFR you need to have either perfect testing or great sampling. There are 2 places so far that did that:

IFR is interesting from an epidemiological and infection control standpoint.
From a clinical standpoint, I don't care about IFR all that much. For a clinician or hospital administrator, only the people who become sick enough to seek healthcare matter. If 1000 people show up at my ER door with respiratory symptoms:
- what percentage is covid+
- what percentage requires inpatient admission
- what percentage requires ICU admission
- what percentage requires assisted mechanical ventilation

Whether there are 100, 200 or 500 out in the community with the sniffles is pretty much irrelevant.

For the director of the county health department whose goal is to eventually eliminate the virus from his jurisdiction, IFR isnt all that interesting either. He cares about incidence, prevalence, true R0 etc. For that fight, he ideally needs a few things:
- a rapid IgM/IgG antibody test (to identify those who are immune)
- a rapid PCR for the virus in respiratory secretions (to identify those who shed)
- lots of hands
- lots of money
- access to lots of hotel rooms

 

[JOhnH]

IFR is interesting from an epidemiological and infection control standpoint.
From a clinical standpoint, I don't care about IFR all that much. For a clinician or hospital administrator, only the people who become sick enough to seek healthcare matter. If 1000 people show up at my ER door with respiratory symptoms:
- what percentage is covid+
- what percentage requires inpatient admission
- what percentage requires ICU admission
- what percentage requires assisted mechanical ventilation

Whether there are 100, 200 or 500 out in the community with the sniffles is pretty much irrelevant.

I hadn't thought of it from that perspective.
This is why I like reading forums like this instead of watching the "news'. I get all sides and all viewpoints here. On TV, I only hear what they want me to hear.

 

[Tantalum]

Beaches are closed, but you can’t close the water. Who was to say he would ever go back to the beach?

Oh but they can and they have. The water is closed in San Diego.. there is a very active thread on Sailing Anarchy about it

even if you own your own boat and live on it you are not allowed to leave your mooring or slip.. when I was lost by the water the police boats were out in full effect

The point being.. well you can be socially distant on the water, the act of getting from your house to the water may risk spreading it, especially with this thing being viable for days outside of the body

local governments tried to keep things open for a long time but kept begging people to socially distant and yet you still had people throwing parties on their boat, rafting up to each other, playing all sorts of sports on the beach. Unfortunately the actions of the few have again impacted the many

 

[Tarheelpilot]

Of course he wasn't at risk of infecting anyone, but why is this guy above the law that (most) everybody else is adhering to? Nobody likes it, but most reasonable people in the city understand that it's NOT a nonsensical temporary restriction. If you really feel like breaking down the details of whether he was or wasn't physically on the sand, then I guess I can't convince you. But I can guarantee if he complied within the first 30 minutes of being asked, a verbal warning was the most likely outcome.

He lives in California. It was stupid to arrest him or anyone else for what he was doing.

 

[IK04]

He lives in California. It was stupid to arrest him or anyone else for what he was doing.

FTFY

 

[Tantalum]

The stupid part, at least locally in San Diego, is that while they closed the water, as in literally closed the bay, they re-opened the farmer's market

If we're making the argument that the water is closed so people stay home and discourage social gathering, then fine.. but then the same argument should stand for the farmer's market. But since the farmer's market is food, that fits in the "essential business" definition.. but there's a big difference in picking out organic grapes in a hard of people vs going to Kroger and buying milk, eggs, and pasta

I believe in making me stay home, reasonably, until the number decrease or we have a cure or we have a better approach.. but some of the laws and citations, and fines beginning to fall in the camp absurdity, and just one entity flexing their strength over another

 

[weilke]

I hadn't thought of it from that perspective.
This is why I like reading forums like this instead of watching the "news'. I get all sides and all viewpoints here. On TV, I only hear what they want me to hear.

I don't watch the news. I try to pull the numbers I need to get an understanding of this from the respective health authorities and what comes out as 'rapid communications' in the relevant journals.

The level of data available from the CDC is pretty abysmal. Between that and the failures of the agency early on in this, I would like to see a major reorganization of the agency before SARS-Cov3 rolls around. I hear the Wuhan wet market just reopened, so with any luck the next pandemic happens before we have lost the institutional knowledge on how to deal with this.

 

[Fiveslide]

Oh but they can and they have. The water is closed in San Diego.. there is a very active thread on Sailing Anarchy about it

even if you own your own boat and live on it you are not allowed to leave your mooring or slip.. when I was lost by the water the police boats were out in full effect

The point being.. well you can be socially distant on the water, the act of getting from your house to the water may risk spreading it, especially with this thing being viable for days outside of the body

local governments tried to keep things open for a long time but kept begging people to socially distant and yet you still had people throwing parties on their boat, rafting up to each other, playing all sorts of sports on the beach. Unfortunately the actions of the few have again impacted the many

I live on a lake. Have a small sailboat sitting at the dock. I can be on the water without ever getting near another soul. These fisherman and pontoons that don't live on the lake are packing the ramps. And of course they have to stop at the store for gas, beer, bait, all that leads to unnecessary contact between people just for a few hours of fun on the water. They're going to get boating shut down here, I just hope it doesn't last all summer. I'll probably try to sneak out there anyway, maybe some night sailing.

 

[azure]

??? I believe he was stating his concern that non-COVID deaths were not being culled out from direct COVID deaths and that this separation of data was important? Your posts in 50 and 53 appeared to confirm his concern they were not separated. I posted the CDC guidance in Post 54 to relieve his concern that in fact the causes of death are being separated by CDC into COVID and non-COVID related categories. Nothing more. And now you agree also that it is important to separate this data?

FYI: There is separate CDC guidance on respiratory issues/pneumonia when it comes to COVID which is additionally broke out in the provisional death counts.

Apparently we are not communicating for some reason. I took your reply to me to be saying that the guidance confirmed that his concern was valid. I was arguing that the guidance did no such thing. I could get snarky like you did, and say NOW you agree also that the guidance does properly cull the non-COVID deaths from the COVID ones? But I take it from this last post of yours, that we've been in violent agreement all along. So let's just leave it there.

 

[azure]

"If the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty". So if the Doctor wishes, for expediency, he can just put down death due to Covid-19 and move on.

Wow. That has to be one of the most glaring non sequiturs I've seen in a long time. Either that, or you think that professionals are looking for excuses to inflate the COVID-19 death count. You see, to me "Compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty" means just that. It doesn't mean that if it's expedient, but I'm not really too sure, I can just say it was due to COVID and move on to more important things. If it means that to you, I suspect there's no way I can convince you otherwise. So be it.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Wow. That has to be one of the most glaring non sequiturs I've seen in a long time. Either that, or you think that professionals are looking for excuses to inflate the COVID-19 death count. You see, to me "Compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty" means just that. It doesn't mean that if it's expedient, but I'm not really too sure, I can just say it was due to COVID and move on to more important things. If it means that to you, I suspect there's no way I can convince you otherwise. So be it.

I'm not here to have you convince me of anything. I can read, and I have a good understanding of how things work. The CDC left a hole big enough to drive a semi through on that one, which will unfortunately skew the numbers.

 

[Bell206]

I took your reply...

Ha. Key words. As I said before, I can't help you with comprehension issues just as in our 80/20 percentile discussion. I understood what Shawn said and responded. Enough said. If you want to believe we were in "violent agreement" throughout the discussion, and it makes you happy, I'm all for it. Then again there's always spending a night at a Holiday Inn Express to help things seem more clearer.

 

[tspear]

I'm not here to have you convince me of anything. I can read, and I have a good understanding of how things work. The CDC left a hole big enough to drive a semi through on that one, which will unfortunately skew the numbers.

Well, so far all the public health and epidemiologists disagree with your assessment. There are multiple articles and now preliminary evidence that we have under counted COVID-19 deaths. And continue too.

Tim

 

[MuseChaser]

"COVID-WTF thread to share your head shaking moments."

Same here.

Hint: Watching the daily briefings... I can't help but have great respect for Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx and the Surgeon General, but not much for you-know-who.

Carry on.
BTW, someone should tell him that it's called... "herd immunity" not "herd mentality" SMH

I, on the other hand, have great faith and respect for "you know who's" ability to take the incredibly difficult-to-manage reins of this situations, listen to those with great expertise and discern the difference between truly knowledgeable personnel and political oppprtinists, and make incredibly difficult decisions. There are things about "you know who" that I most definitely do not respect, but I am very glad he is our president right now. Not sure why that post was allowed to stand but, since it was, I'm assuming this one will be, too. Otherwise.....well....pretty obvious....

 

[azure]

Ha. Key words. As I said before, I can't help you with comprehension issues just as in our 80/20 percentile discussion. I understood what Shawn said and responded. Enough said. If you want to believe we were in "violent agreement" throughout the discussion, and it makes you happy, I'm all for it. Then again there's always spending a night at a Holiday Inn Express to help things seem more clearer.

No problem with comprehension here, at least not as regards technical writing. What SGOTI says in a forum post, sure I can misread. So can you. And you did. 'Nuff said.

 

[tspear]

Guys, let's focus on COVID-19.
Discussions about the fitness or not of President Trump are not allowed per the TOS. And have resulted in multiple threads being closed.

Tim

 

[azure]

Well, so far all the public health and epidemiologists disagree with your assessment. There are multiple articles and now preliminary evidence that we have under counted COVID-19 deaths. And continue too.

Tim

Source? I've certainly heard anecdotal cases of COVID deaths being attributed to something else, but I haven't seen a good argument that we are systematically under-counting them. Humans are fallible, and I would expect those errors to be counterbalanced by the ones @Doc Holliday is worried about.

 

[redtail]

I, on the other hand, have great faith and respect for "you know who's" ability to take the incredibly difficult-to-manage reins of this situations, listen to those with great expertise and discern the difference between truly knowledgeable personnel and political oppprtinists, and make incredibly difficult decisions. There are things about "you know who" that I most definitely do not respect, but I am very glad he is our president right now. Not sure why that post was allowed to stand but, since it was, I'm assuming this one will be, too. Otherwise.....well....pretty obvious....

It was probably allowed to stand because I never mentioned the word "president" like you did

I'm at work here in the epicenter, doing my small part.......I'll respectfully bow out now, before I say what's REALLY on my mind about that clown! See ya

 

[Ghery]

Posted by my Mother on Facebook when their Stay at Home order went into effect...

View attachment 84304

I read that to my wife and she just grinned.

 

[tspear]

Source? I've certainly heard anecdotal cases of COVID deaths being attributed to something else, but I haven't seen a good argument that we are systematically under-counting them. Humans are fallible, and I would expect those errors to be counterbalanced by the ones @Doc Holliday is worried about.

https://www.google.com/search?clien...AhUClHIEHTvNDskQBSgAegQICxAm&biw=1273&bih=991

And pick your data source.
IBT: https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-usa-death-toll-nears-10000-experts-say-us-undercounting-2953054

Michigan specific: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-h...eath-toll-undercounted-so-some-want-test-dead

WaPo : https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html


You get the idea.

Tim

 

[murphey]

I, on the other hand, have great faith and respect for "you know who's" ability to take the incredibly difficult-to-manage reins of this situations, listen to those with great expertise and discern the difference between truly knowledgeable personnel and political oppprtinists, and make incredibly difficult decisions. There are things about "you know who" that I most definitely do not respect, but I am very glad he is our president right now. Not sure why that post was allowed to stand but, since it was, I'm assuming this one will be, too. Otherwise.....well....pretty obvious....

??.?.?.???.?.?????

 

[azure]

https://www.google.com/search?clien...AhUClHIEHTvNDskQBSgAegQICxAm&biw=1273&bih=991

And pick your data source.
IBT: https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-usa-death-toll-nears-10000-experts-say-us-undercounting-2953054

Michigan specific: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-h...eath-toll-undercounted-so-some-want-test-dead

WaPo : https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html


You get the idea.

Tim

Of course. I've heard about the same reports - not read them though, so thanks for the links. But again, this is mostly based on anecdotal "evidence", and many of the anecdotes are of cases from early in the pandemic when the disease wasn't yet on everyone's radar screen. What I'm wondering about isn't whether it has happened or even whether it is still happening - I have no trouble believing it still does to an extent - but whether it really amounts to a massive undercount of COVID-19 deaths. Those early missed cases would have been at a time when the total number of known cases - and presumably total cases too - was a couple orders of magnitude below what it is now. It's true that even today, testing is not up to the level it should be, but as far as I know every state's testing eligibility criteria say that anyone who is seriously ill with respiratory symptoms should be tested. Unless the shortage of testing kits is still so severe that many are actually not tested (not just isolated cases, but MANY), it's hard to believe we are still seriously under-counting actual COVID-19 deaths (as opposed to infections).

But this is a chaotic, messy situation, so I guess anything is POSSIBLE.

 

[AuntPeggy]

So if someone has, say diabetes, or kidney failure, but they contract COVID-19 and die of respiratory failure, are you going to say they died of their pre-existing condition? That's essentially what Sweden seems to be doing (though I'm taking @Datadriver 's word for it here, I havem't checked whether they actually do this).

Pretty sure the cause of death at the hospital would be listed as COVID-19.

My 30-something daughter has lived with diabetes for 30 years. If she died with Covid-19 next week, would you suggest that she didn't die FROM Covid-19? Without the virus, we expect her to have another 30 or more years living with diabetes.

 

[tspear]

Of course. I've heard about the same reports - not read them though, so thanks for the links. But again, this is mostly based on anecdotal "evidence", and many of the anecdotes are of cases from early in the pandemic when the disease wasn't yet on everyone's radar screen. What I'm wondering about isn't whether it has happened or even whether it is still happening - I have no trouble believing it still does to an extent - but whether it really amounts to a massive undercount of COVID-19 deaths. Those early missed cases would have been at a time when the total number of known cases - and presumably total cases too - was a couple orders of magnitude below what it is now. It's true that even today, testing is not up to the level it should be, but as far as I know every state's testing eligibility criteria say that anyone who is seriously ill with respiratory symptoms should be tested. Unless the shortage of testing kits is still so severe that many are actually not tested (not just isolated cases, but MANY), it's hard to believe we are still seriously under-counting actual COVID-19 deaths (as opposed to infections).

But this is a chaotic, messy situation, so I guess anything is POSSIBLE.

The Michigan coroner report was from last week. So rather recent.
In terms of testing. No it is not solved. I know multiple people still waiting on being allowed to test or getting the results. Is it getting better, likely. But it is very uneven across the country.

Tim

 

[azure]

My 30-something daughter has lived with diabetes for 30 years. If she died with Covid-19 next week, would you suggest that she didn't die FROM Covid-19? Without the virus, we expect her to have another 30 or more years living with diabetes.

Of course not. What did I write that made you think that?

I said that if someone is DYING of a condition, and then contracts COVID-19 and dies of the original condition (but maybe somewhat earlier than they otherwise would), they shouldn't (and according to my reading of the guidelines, wouldn't) be listed as a COVID-19 fatality. I think COVID-19 would likely be listed as a contributing factor, but not as the underlying cause of death.

But someone who happens to have a chronic disease, even a predisposing one, if they died during the course of COVID-19 when they wouldn't have otherwise been expected to die, OF COURSE they should, and would, be listed as a COVID-19 fatality.

I'm not sure if I'm just not writing clearly (since someone else misread me as saying the opposite of what I was actually saying) or whether this is just so emotional an issue that we're all on edge and not functioning at our best. I suspect it's a little of both - and I KNOW I'm not at my best right now. I'm juggling teaching 7 online sections, facing the likely loss of my job in 3 months, and am getting only about 4 hours of sleep at night due to a rotator cuff tear. I suspect everyone is under a huge amount of stress, and it's not going to be relieved anytime soon.

 

[JOhnH]

I'm not sure if I'm just not writing clearly (since someone else misread me as saying the opposite of what I was actually saying) or whether this is just so emotional an issue that we're all on edge and not functioning at our best. I suspect it's a little of both - and I KNOW I'm not at my best right now. I'm juggling teaching 7 online sections, facing the likely loss of my job in 3 months, and am getting only about 4 hours of sleep at night due to a rotator cuff tear. I suspect everyone is under a huge amount of stress, and it's not going to be relieved anytime soon.

For the most part, you are writing very clearly. It is almost impossible to make a post here that someone does not try to find exception to. That compounds the problem with written communications that have no "body language" or context.

 

[Everskyward]

Of course not. What did I write that made you think that?

I said that if someone is DYING of a condition, and then contracts COVID-19 and dies of the original condition (but maybe somewhat earlier than they otherwise would), they shouldn't (and according to my reading of the guidelines, wouldn't) be listed as a COVID-19 fatality. I think COVID-19 would likely be listed as a contributing factor, but not as the underlying cause of death.

But someone who happens to have a chronic disease, even a predisposing one, if they died during the course of COVID-19 when they wouldn't have otherwise been expected to die, OF COURSE they should, and would, be listed as a COVID-19 fatality.

I'm not sure if I'm just not writing clearly (since someone else misread me as saying the opposite of what I was actually saying) or whether this is just so emotional an issue that we're all on edge and not functioning at our best. I suspect it's a little of both - and I KNOW I'm not at my best right now. I'm juggling teaching 7 online sections, facing the likely loss of my job in 3 months, and am getting only about 4 hours of sleep at night due to a rotator cuff tear. I suspect everyone is under a huge amount of stress, and it's not going to be relieved anytime soon.

I think you are writing clearly, just that the line between someone dying of or dying with can be blurry. I have a relative who died after testing positive for COVID-19, but she had also been back and forth between the hospital and nursing facility for lung cancer. Plus I think she was in her 80s. I wouldn't have been surprised to hear that she had passed, even before I had ever heard of COVID-19. I have no clue what the official cause of death was, though.

 

[Bell206]

...we're all some are on edge and not functioning at our best. [...] I suspect everyone is some are under a huge amount of stress,

FTFY. Most people that myself and others interact with daily are functioning fine and not stressing out. Concerned, yes. And that is in an area with the highest deaths per capita. But there is a group of people that is not handling this situation well and probably should take care of themselves first before they get swallowed up by the situation.

 

[denverpilot]

For the most part, you are writing very clearly. It is almost impossible to make a post here that someone does not try to find exception to. That compounds the problem with written communications that have no "body language" or context.

I do this but it doesn’t come across well online. Never could figure out why.

 

[JOhnH]

FTFY. Most people that myself and others interact with daily are functioning fine and not stressing out. Concerned, yes. And that is in an area with the highest deaths per capita. But there is a group of people that is not handling this situation well and probably should take care of themselves first before they get swallowed up by the situation.

You sort of proved the point of my previous post. No matter what someone posts, unless they have it proofed by a lawyer and and English professor, someone will object. The majority of times when people say "we all" or "everyone" knows that there are going to be exceptions. It doesn't really need to be pointed out that some of us actually have different situations and different personalities. Otherwise, the word "every" would need to be pulled from the dictionary.

 

[Doc Holliday]

You sort of proved the point of my previous post. No matter what someone posts, unless they have it proofed by a lawyer and and English professor, someone will object. The majority of times when people say "we all" or "everyone" knows that there are going to be exceptions. It doesn't really need to be pointed out that some of us actually have different situations and different personalities. Otherwise, the word "every" would need to be pulled from the dictionary.

And you just proved your previous post.

 

[weilke]

I would like to be able to say 'Darwin at work', but unfortunately those dimwits go back to their families:

https://www.firefighternation.com/2...ers-find-100-teens-at-outdoor-drinking-party/

 

[azure]

I think you are writing clearly, just that the line between someone dying of or dying with can be blurry. I have a relative who died after testing positive for COVID-19, but she had also been back and forth between the hospital and nursing facility for lung cancer. Plus I think she was in her 80s. I wouldn't have been surprised to hear that she had passed, even before I had ever heard of COVID-19. I have no clue what the official cause of death was, though.

Well, I tried to make exactly that point earlier in the thread, and was answered by @Bell206 with a link to the CDC guidelines. That cleared things up for me (modulo the fact that human errors in attributing deaths will still occur, as always), yet I still got into an unpleasant exchange with him where we both interpreted the other (apparently) as saying the exact opposite of what we were saying. So that's why I wondered if communication is really happening here, or if we're just talking past each other, possibly out of not functioning at our very best.

 

[JOhnH]

And you just proved your previous post.

Well, that's better than proving myself wrong, isn't it?

 

[azure]

FTFY. Most people that myself and others interact with daily are functioning fine and not stressing out. Concerned, yes. And that is in an area with the highest deaths per capita. But there is a group of people that is not handling this situation well and probably should take care of themselves first before they get swallowed up by the situation.

I don't know anyone who is in danger of getting "swallowed up by the situation". Do you?

And if your post was meant to point a finger at me (because I admitted to being under stress), then I would suggest you review our exchange. I did, and I still can't see how you misinterpreted what I wrote so completely. I don't know whether you're always this "on the muscle" towards other people, but if not, maybe you might want to step back and examine your own reactions to what is happening.

 

[Bell206]

Do you?

Yes, I do. And a couple of them have over 100 rolls of toilet paper to prove it.

if your post was meant to point a finger at me (because I admitted to being under stress)

No it wasn't. I would have addressed it directly to you if it was. Just as I do my other posts here, when needed. However, if my post struck a cord with you then perhaps that's something you need look at.

I still can't see how you misinterpreted what I wrote so completely.

For the same reason another person did the same, as well as a couple others who I conversed with. It happens and is apart of any normal discourse. Correct?

"on the muscle" towards other people

No clue what you mean by this. Another misinterpretation? But if you mean do I continue to articulate my opinion when there is no clear conclusion then guilty as charged. It's how most normal debates and discussions are done whether here on PoA or other avenues. At least in my experience.

 

[jsstevens]

I do this but it doesn’t come across well online. Never could figure out why.

There you go, dumbing it down for the masses again.

 

[Bell206]

The majority of times when people say "we all" or "everyone" knows that there are going to be exceptions.

FWIW: I would agree with you in normal instances. But in instances that are overwhelming to a large group of people, like a major hurricane or this pandemic, there is usually a group of people who face the situation with trepidation or in some cases panic. And when some in this group...not all...feel they need to justify their "feelings" toward the situation they will start to include "everyone" and "everything" in their discussions. This was most evident from the emotions shown across social media about stay-at-home orders. A quote from one blog page sums it up: "Everybody needs to stay home or we all die." So, when I see an all-inclusive term used in similar situations that I'm involved with, regardless of the reasons, I will correct it as the "exceptions" usually greatly outnumber the individuals of original core group being addressed.