Wisconsin governor drops MOAB on his state economy

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Datadriver, Mar 23, 2020.

  1. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Saddam Hussein is the first one I remember using it. He threatened our troops with the MOABs if we attacked him during the Gulf war. It was more like the disadvantaged little sister of all bombs.
     
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  2. Everskyward

    Everskyward Administrator Management Council Member

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    OK, I initially thought it was some acronym invented for the current situation, especially because it was used in two threads about similar actions.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  3. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    I think this is a very fair take. I’m from Long Island where according to the recent press conference, 1 in 1,000 are likely infected. Makes it difficult to think we should be going back to work because, for example, I commute on a train and subway each morning with likely close to that number of people that share those spaces. Seems absurd to thrust people back into that right now. A week or so might be very different.
     
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  4. Morgan3820

    Morgan3820 Pattern Altitude

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    No problem. Everyone’s stressed
     
  5. rpadula

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    JPow's got this, fam.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. DFH65

    DFH65 Pattern Altitude

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    @jspilot yes, unfortunately it is a one size fits all "solution" for example lets look at two different areas in NY. Allegany county in NY has 2 confirmed cases and a population of 47,000 people the county is 1,034 mi². Long Island, actually 4 counties, according to the interwebs has 7.5 Million people and is 1,401 mi². So the population densities aren't even in the same league but both are doing the same things. It just seems to me we could probably be smart enough to manage the different risk levels of both places.
     
  7. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Spare me the lecture. Some have done well with this, and some haven't. Virginia, for example, has done fairly well, by DC hasn't. But that hasn't stopped the mayor of DC and some other states from insisting that Virginia needs to do what they do - because.
     
  8. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    One size fits all is what government does. And that does cause problems.
     
  9. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    Totally agree and I think the pathway forward is exactly as you mention— allow certain areas to return to the way things were but not everywhere. One size fits all never works.
     
  10. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The problem isn't whether YOU are high risk. It's how quickly you will spread it to high risk individuals. Even if all of the high risk individuals are locked down, all of the low risk individuals will be quickly infected, the virus will be EVERYWHERE, and then how are the high risk individuals supposed to, I dunno, eat?

    And even "low risk" isn't zero risk. I keep seeing that 40% of the people who are *hospitalized* for this are under 50... That means even the "low risk" population isn't as low risk as they may think.

    It's not ideal, but... In thinking about alternative solutions that would allow rural areas to go about business as usual, I got to thinking about the lack of hospitals available in rural areas. Say you shut down Des Moines but let the rest of Iowa go about their business. It won't spread as quickly as it would in a city, but it'll still spread fairly quickly, and then all of those people have to to a bigger city where there's a hospital, and we likely still get overwhelmed.
     
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  11. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Here's an example of where one-size-fits-all fails.

    In our state, non-essential businesses may stay open if no more than 10 people are in the place at a time. So a small, neighborhood outdoor/outfitter/gun store might stay open, limiting staff and customers to 10 and keep them 6 feet apart. But a store like Cabelas, which might be 50 times as large inside, is bound by the same limit -10- meaning that they will have to close because the store staff at minimum levels might be 9 or 10.
     
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  12. Tarheelpilot

    Tarheelpilot Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Because government
     
  13. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    Great point about the rural areas and lack of hospitals. I do think we are going to have to figure out a way to gradually allow people back but it can’t be an all at once type thing. Maybe you go to every other day working or go to some “if your last name starts with A-F you work this day— whatever works.

    The real key here is we need to know who has anti-bodies for this virus and who does not. It’s a travesty we don’t have that ability yet.
     
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  14. Kenny Phillips

    Kenny Phillips En-Route

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    Of course we will recover. And infecting everyone to 'preserve society' will do exactly the opposite. This is a few month's worth of 'glitch'. People are resilient. And you need to read and understand the ramifications of _not_ containing the spread.
     
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  15. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Not clear whether we have the ability or not. As quoted on a different site, this article claims that we are further along in the pandemic than previously thought and, at least in the UK, should begin antibody testing right away.

    (Unfortunately the article is paywalled and I can't even read it directly, but it was quoted as linked to above.)
     
  16. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    By the way - Even if you think this is the "MOAB," @Datadriver, it technically was not the governor (Tony Evers). The order was written and issued by the Secretary of the Department of Health Services, Andrea Palm.
     
  17. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    The Oxford study is not a study based on measured data - it's a hypothetical mathematical "what-if" model.

    It assumes things like a 0.1% hospitalization rate across the the entire population.

    This is off by at least 1 order of magnitude. Italy already reached the point where 1% of their population is hospitalized.
     
  18. SoonerAviator

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    Not to pick nits, but they're all hypothetical mathematical "what-if" models.
     
  19. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Sure but there is a difference between a model that's based on actual data vs. one that's based purely on theory.

    I think that even actual data is the wrong input for models, seeing how inaccurate the actual data is. What we need is sampling data.

    But the only place I know where cross-population random sampling is taking place is Bill Gates's study in Seattle, which is still very small at this point (300/day).
     
  20. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    I don't know about "all", but it's quite true that many studies use mathematical models (along with certain "reasonable" assumptions) and then try to see if the model's predictions agree with the actual evidence.

    The article is paywalled so I'm not entirely sure what the assumptions were. If they assume a 0.1% hospitalization rate across the population, I agree that that appears to be dubious in some places. But the part that Brian quoted said that it was based in part on case and death reports from Italy, so unless the study is more than a couple of weeks old, I'd be surprised if that was the case.
     
  21. Tarheelpilot

    Tarheelpilot Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Italy is not a good case study for our population. It’s tiresome to keep hearing about Italy.
     
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  22. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Washington Post had an article today whining about the lack of data - seems they want the data to write more articles. Self-serving. Let the medical professionals do medical stuff, the data will get reported when able.

    I do agree without data we're just making guesses - but even if every scintilla of data were available now it would be wrong as there is such a huge portion of people that weren't even tested.
     
  23. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Right, but I was just pointing out that everyone uses assumptions and best guesses. As more and more data become available, it obviously allows the model assumptions/constraints to be adjusted based on new data. It's why we have predictions that run the gamut of 100K deaths worldwide to millions of deaths. Assumptions with exponential effects can result in wild data. If the assumption was too narrow, everyone says "you weren't conservative enough in your doomsday prediction, how could you let that happen?!". If the assumption is too wide, everyone says "thank God the curve flattened, otherwise we would have ended up at your models prediction". Truth is usually somewhere in between, hard to cast stones at either method until all the dust settles.
     
  24. Clip4

    Clip4 Final Approach

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    Some people will spend a month in the hospital and be on a ventilator. Some won’t be alive when this thing is over. Quit the whining. Your plan will have dead people lying in the halls of hospitals.
     
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  25. Tarheelpilot

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    We are not testing enough people to have any idea what’s going on. Our leaders are guessing at what the best corse of action is at this point. The data indicates approximately 90% of those infected show no symptoms. The blind are leading us. What we are doing may be excessive or may be pointless. No one knows.
    We need wide spread testing.
     
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  26. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Totally agree we need more wide spread testing, but the asymptomatic rate isn't 90%.

    We know that from South Korea, which has pretty close to 100% testing. (Can't have less than that in a test-and-track strategy without a lockdown, it will lead to exponential growth, which they don't have).

    But they still have a 10% hospitalization rate. So to have 90% asymptomatic it would mean you're either asymptomatic, or in the hospital. But that doesn't leave any room for the scores of people in the middle who have some symptoms but don't need hospitalization.
     
  27. Datadriver

    Datadriver Line Up and Wait

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  28. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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  29. Tarheelpilot

    Tarheelpilot Ejection Handle Pulled

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    The only population I’m aware of that was locked down and had near 100% testing was Vo in Italy. They found ~90% of cases were asymptomatic... to the best of my recollection. It was a small remote village of 3000ish people.

    edit:

    but screw Italy.

    We really need to ramp up our testing.
     
  30. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    50% - 75% not 90%

    https://translate.googleusercontent...esh_ce&usg=ALkJrhjtl_z8XLDvKWmZLYnDR3LBaMn9Ug


    The 90% number of Vo is that after 10 days 90% of those who had symptoms were clean.
     
  31. Datadriver

    Datadriver Line Up and Wait

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    oh, sorry. I wonder if some of these other Asian countries reacted so quickly because they were thinking of SARs and told themselves, oh no not again!
     
  32. Tarheelpilot

    Tarheelpilot Ejection Handle Pulled

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  33. azure

    azure Final Approach

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  34. Kenny Phillips

    Kenny Phillips En-Route

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    This is SARS, COVID-19 is AKA SARS-CoV-2.
    And the US has proven itself a world power, taking the lead in cases overnight.
     
  35. Mtns2Skies

    Mtns2Skies Super Moderator Management Council Member

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    Not really much choice to "blow it" when your job tells you that you have no choice but to come in. That's an awfully 2 (1?) dimensional view of the situation.
     
  36. Fiveslide

    Fiveslide Line Up and Wait

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    I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about the people that still went to the beach, the gym, the bars, the salons, until the government made the choice for them and closed the doors to those places.

    I'm still trying to work as much as I can. I wear a mask and gloves when I enter people's homes to do repairs, I can't fix apartments from home.

    Apologies if I was unclear. I may have had a beer or two that evening.
     
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  37. sourdough44

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  38. danhagan

    danhagan Pattern Altitude

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    The profession has, the current work force usually is HIV positive and will probably suffer an over dose and death. Am in women's health. Here on the border a few years ago there were quite a few Russian females that were in bad shape being pimped for their "coyote" fees.
     
  39. chemgeek

    chemgeek Cleared for Takeoff

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    In the absence of widespread testing to guide isolation policy or determine who can go back into the general population, the only tool we have in the toolbox is widespread social distancing policy. The purpose of widespread isolation policies is to preserve healthcare capacity by spreading out the impact of critically ill patients over time. It works. Ten days after imposing stay-at-home policy in NY state, the doubling time for caseload growth has increased from less than 2 days to a frightening but more manageable 4 days. Isolation policies are more effective in the early stages of an epidemic, not after your caseload is raging.

    Here are some sobering statistics:
    • NY had fewer than 200 cases on March 10. Stay-at-home policies were implemented on the 17th, when we had 1700 cases. As of the 26th, we had 39,000 total cases. That's the tyranny of exponential growth.
    • The growth rate of cases nationwide shows no signs of decline yet. It is doubling every 3 days. Based on this data and known lag time between infection and realization of diagnosis, it seems highly likely that the current nationwide caseload of 83,000 will reach a 500,000 in a week or two. We will easily surpass a million in a month's time, unless we do something to decrease transmission.
    • The case fatality rate is around 2% and hasn't changed much since the beginning. So if there are 500,000 known cases there will likely be 10,000 deaths. But we won't stop at 500,000 cases, because that's just next week or so.
    • About 15% of cases will require hospitalization. That is the NY experience. It is slightly down from 20% that was seen in some other countries.
    COVID-19 will eventually reach every corner of the country. NY and WA got an early start. The rest of America will catch up in 2, 3, 4 weeks or so. A little pain early (social distancing) will prevent a lot of pain later (collapsed health care system).

    To get out of this mess and get back to something closer to normal we need:
    • A vaccine (12 months off) to create widespread herd immunity
    • Effective therapeutics (at least several months off) to reduce the length of hospital stays and fraction of individuals with critical illness.
    • Widespread testing to determine the extent of exposure, identify who should be isolated, and identify those who have recovered and can return to the workplace.
    These three things should be our highest priorities as a nation, in addition to providing necessary medical supplies to get through the first wave of the epidemic. If we don't get cracking on these things YESTERDAY, there will be no quick path back to "normal." The good news is that once we get past this, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the U.S. economy, and a relatively quick recovery of economic activity can ensue. The idea that we can fight mother nature and avoid the laws of physics, math, chemistry, and biology is laughable. Disney's Law ("Wishing will make it so") does not apply in the real world. We have the biggest, baddest, scientific community in the world. (I was privileged to work in that community for 35 years, including two stints at NIH.) We can get 'er done if we focus on the priorities that matter.
     
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  40. chemgeek

    chemgeek Cleared for Takeoff

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    The 3700 passengers of the Diamond Princess was one of the first excellent studies of an infected population for which everyone was tested. This population spanned a large range of ages. From that data, the case fatality rate was 2% (similar to that seen worldwide) for all ages, and the infection fatality rate was around 1%. That is, about 50% of individuals who tested positive were asymptomatic.

    The more recent Vo Italy study was about the same size, 3300 individuals, and also showed that about 50% of individuals who tested positive were asymptomatic. What they were able to do was show that they could halt the spread of the virus by intensive, widespread testing and selective isolation. (That's a lesson about how to get out of our mess in the U.S.) After a few rounds of testing and isolation, they found that 90% of the population was infection-free. Not cured, not asymptomatic, but not infected.
     
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