Wintiertime go/no go decisions

jpower

jpower

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James
I'm looking at committing acts of aviation tomorrow, but as I sit here looking at the weather, I realized that I have next to no experience with go/no go decisions in the winter. This is the first winter where I've done any significant flying, and up until now it's been very straightforward--severe clear or blizzarding.

In this case, I'm looking at flying out of Ann Arbor ARB tomorrow, Monday. I was initially thinking about going to Jackson JXN (about 30-35 nm west) for lunch, but I'm now rethinking that plan. First of all, the relevant TAFs (and METARs just for good measure):

KYIP 200453Z AUTO 21008KT 10SM OVC038 M02/M07 A2953 RMK AO2 SLP007 T10171067 410061083 TSNO

KYIP 200242Z 2003/2024 22015KT P6SM BKN025 BKN100
TEMPO 2003/2005 SCT025 BKN100
FM200500 24008KT P6SM BKN018
FM201200 32006KT P6SM OVC024
FM201500 35009KT P6SM -SHSN BKN040

KARB 200453Z AUTO 22007KT 10SM OVC038 M03/M06 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP006 T10281061 410221111

KJXN 200456Z 23007KT 10SM OVC034 M02/M05 A2949 RMK AO2 SLP999 T10171050 410171128

KJXN 192340Z 2000/2024 22012KT P6SM BKN018
FM200500 25009KT P6SM -SHSN OVC015
FM201200 35008KT P6SM -SHSN OVC015

I currently have the plane at noon, but it's available all day. The TAFs don't go out very far (and I'll probably still be up at the 06Z update), but they suggest that I might run into some -SNSH. Pardon my ignorance, but does that mean insta ice and keep away like the plague? Or can you follow the same "if you can see through it, fly through it" rule?

One of my favorite sources, usairnet.com (here's ARB), seems to think it might be okay?

So what does the collective wisdom say? Sure, go on to JXN for lunch, no biggie? Stay local and head back if there's any sign of impending snow? Keep your little butt on the ground until you can afford something that's deiced? Something entirely different?
 
Snow doesn't mean airframe icing, but it reduces visibility to nothing in a hurry. I'm assuming you're not instrument rated. For a short trip like that I'd just get a good night sleep and make a game time decision.
 
I would wait to see what actually happens. Snow does not usually mean icing as long as you aren't in the clouds, since it is already in solid form and can't accrete as ice unless it melts first, which isn't likely to happen tomorrow. Snow can be intense enough to lower visibility to IFR, although the forecast seems to say that won't happen, but that is the part of the forecast I trust the least. The things I would be most concerned about are:

1. The ceiling. If it gets much below 2000 feet I would personally consider that a no-go for VFR flight in this area, and I'm based here and am pretty familiar with it. The 06Z update for JXN is a little more optimistic about the ceiling.

2. The visibility. If the snow showers reduce it to IFR, then are they localized or widespread? Could I avoid them in flight? Use eyeballs together with radar to decide how risky your planned flight will be.

Having said that, it's never a bad decision to stay on the ground when you don't have to fly.
 
It's a tough call and I never make go/no go calls by just using the TAF. Take a look at a lot of the other resources on the ADDS website (aviationweather.gov), especially PIREPS a couple hours before your departure time. As Brad mentioned, it's unlikely you will get icing from snow but it's still possible and it's still considered known icing.

Lastly, this chart: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/icing/icingnav is of HUGE help in the wintertime.

Fly safe!
 
If you decide to go anytime today and want a passenger let me know...I'm a new pilot in Jackson and was thinking about going up in our club Cardinal today but haven't been up in a couple of months and thought maybe I should take a flight with the CFO first as the plane is still pretty new to me
 
Another consideration for winter flying, dress like you are going to walk home from the woods. Because you might.
 
Thanks for all your input!

I ended up going to JXN today for lunch with a friend. The ceilings were a lot higher than predicted (like 7000 or so) and the visibility was great when we left. The ceiling and visibility dropped a little bit as we got towards Jackson and there was some light snow as predicted, but it was never below probably 2500 ft / 10 miles. My friend is interested in becoming a pilot (and probably will this summer), so I showed him the ropes on straight and level flight, some turns, coordination, etc. He took to it very well! :)
 
Glad you got your chance. I figured you might have gone, conditions were much nicer south and west of the metro Detroit area. I'm based at VLL, and by the time I made it to the airport, some serious visibility-limiting snow had moved in, ceilings were down to 1500 feet in places, and I decided to stay local instead of taking a run to 3DA as I was planning. It was almost IFR at 2200 MSL so I think I made a good decision. ;)
 
How much time do you have? How much IFR time? How much time in aircraft your going to be flying. Very little info given. If your low time you'd probably be better off waiting for a nice day or driving.
 
azure said:
Glad you got your chance. I figured you might have gone, conditions were much nicer south and west of the metro Detroit area. I'm based at VLL, and by the time I made it to the airport, some serious visibility-limiting snow had moved in, ceilings were down to 1500 feet in places, and I decided to stay local instead of taking a run to 3DA as I was planning. It was almost IFR at 2200 MSL so I think I made a good decision. ;)
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Wow, that's pretty amazing. What time was this? I was at 3600 MSL and could have gone a lot higher and remained in perfectly comfortable VFR. When we took off, my passenger even spotted downtown Detroit. Coming back, visibility was right about 10 miles, though.

Jimmy cooper said:
How much time do you have? How much IFR time? How much time in aircraft your going to be flying. Very little info given. If your low time you'd probably be better off waiting for a nice day or driving.
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I'm not totally green, but I'm definitely still a low time VFR pilot. I learned to fly during summer on the east coast, so I do have a lot of experience in hazy/otherwise low viz days. As I told my friend when we took off, we'll check the weather in Jackson before we go (and of course listen to the ATIS here), but then use our eyes to see what the weather's really doing. As I said above, I was at 3600 MSL and could have gone a lot higher.
 
jpower said:
Wow, that's pretty amazing. What time was this? I was at 3600 MSL and could have gone a lot higher and remained in perfectly comfortable VFR. When we took off, my passenger even spotted downtown Detroit. Coming back, visibility was right about 10 miles, though.
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It was about 1615 EST or so, getting toward late afternoon. The AWOS was reporting 10SM OVC060 as I drove up, but it was officially down to 7SM and SCT019 BKN040 OVC050 with -SN by the time I took off. Things were deteriorating quite fast, FNT and RNP were both IFR, and even though I'm instrument rated, there was an Airmet Zulu and quite a few icing pireps.

There was one VERY strange METAR from KMTC a couple of hours before, reporting -FZDZ. As far as I can tell that must have been a sensor error, since there was NO altitude in the column above freezing. I was a little spooked by it still, though.
 
We canceled a trip to VLL Sat, Sun and Mon. Maybe try again in a couple of weeks.
 
jpower said:
I'm not totally green, but I'm definitely still a low time VFR pilot. I learned to fly during summer on the east coast, so I do have a lot of experience in hazy/otherwise low viz days. As I told my friend when we took off, we'll check the weather in Jackson before we go (and of course listen to the ATIS here), but then use our eyes to see what the weather's really doing. As I said above, I was at 3600 MSL and could have gone a lot higher.
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A drum I beat occasionally is that the notion of go/no-go is highly overused for VFR and to a lesser extent, IFR. Most often the decision to go or not is one of convenience rather than safety. The safety issue is usually more along the lines of "continue with the plan" vs "switch to plan B" (which may be landing short of the intended destination, turning around, or going somewhere else).

For VFR as long as you remain in decent VMC are are ready to abort should things change for the worse long before they get dicey there's really little or no safety risk even if the forecast strongly suggests the flight can't be completed in VMC. The real risk in that case is that you will suffer the inconvenience associated with failing to complete the flight as planned. Could mean a night or two spent in a motel far from home or the time/money spent going partway and turning back. There are of course exceptions to this such as departing directly into inadequate weather or night flight when the wx might not be good but most of the time there's simply little safety risk with attempting a VFR flight when the forecast is less than perfect assuming the pilot reacts to poor conditions properly.

And IMO traditional pilot training does a poor job of preparing pilots for this. For one thing the oft quoted "Plan the flight, fly the plan" suggest exactly the wrong mindset and perhaps is as much to blame for many "continued VFR flight into IMC" accidents as get home itis. A better motto might be "Plan for the worst, deal with what you get".
 
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