jpower
Cleared for Takeoff
I'm looking at committing acts of aviation tomorrow, but as I sit here looking at the weather, I realized that I have next to no experience with go/no go decisions in the winter. This is the first winter where I've done any significant flying, and up until now it's been very straightforward--severe clear or blizzarding.
In this case, I'm looking at flying out of Ann Arbor ARB tomorrow, Monday. I was initially thinking about going to Jackson JXN (about 30-35 nm west) for lunch, but I'm now rethinking that plan. First of all, the relevant TAFs (and METARs just for good measure):
KYIP 200453Z AUTO 21008KT 10SM OVC038 M02/M07 A2953 RMK AO2 SLP007 T10171067 410061083 TSNO
KYIP 200242Z 2003/2024 22015KT P6SM BKN025 BKN100
TEMPO 2003/2005 SCT025 BKN100
FM200500 24008KT P6SM BKN018
FM201200 32006KT P6SM OVC024
FM201500 35009KT P6SM -SHSN BKN040
KARB 200453Z AUTO 22007KT 10SM OVC038 M03/M06 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP006 T10281061 410221111
KJXN 200456Z 23007KT 10SM OVC034 M02/M05 A2949 RMK AO2 SLP999 T10171050 410171128
KJXN 192340Z 2000/2024 22012KT P6SM BKN018
FM200500 25009KT P6SM -SHSN OVC015
FM201200 35008KT P6SM -SHSN OVC015
I currently have the plane at noon, but it's available all day. The TAFs don't go out very far (and I'll probably still be up at the 06Z update), but they suggest that I might run into some -SNSH. Pardon my ignorance, but does that mean insta ice and keep away like the plague? Or can you follow the same "if you can see through it, fly through it" rule?
One of my favorite sources, usairnet.com (here's ARB), seems to think it might be okay?
So what does the collective wisdom say? Sure, go on to JXN for lunch, no biggie? Stay local and head back if there's any sign of impending snow? Keep your little butt on the ground until you can afford something that's deiced? Something entirely different?
In this case, I'm looking at flying out of Ann Arbor ARB tomorrow, Monday. I was initially thinking about going to Jackson JXN (about 30-35 nm west) for lunch, but I'm now rethinking that plan. First of all, the relevant TAFs (and METARs just for good measure):
KYIP 200453Z AUTO 21008KT 10SM OVC038 M02/M07 A2953 RMK AO2 SLP007 T10171067 410061083 TSNO
KYIP 200242Z 2003/2024 22015KT P6SM BKN025 BKN100
TEMPO 2003/2005 SCT025 BKN100
FM200500 24008KT P6SM BKN018
FM201200 32006KT P6SM OVC024
FM201500 35009KT P6SM -SHSN BKN040
KARB 200453Z AUTO 22007KT 10SM OVC038 M03/M06 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP006 T10281061 410221111
KJXN 200456Z 23007KT 10SM OVC034 M02/M05 A2949 RMK AO2 SLP999 T10171050 410171128
KJXN 192340Z 2000/2024 22012KT P6SM BKN018
FM200500 25009KT P6SM -SHSN OVC015
FM201200 35008KT P6SM -SHSN OVC015
I currently have the plane at noon, but it's available all day. The TAFs don't go out very far (and I'll probably still be up at the 06Z update), but they suggest that I might run into some -SNSH. Pardon my ignorance, but does that mean insta ice and keep away like the plague? Or can you follow the same "if you can see through it, fly through it" rule?
One of my favorite sources, usairnet.com (here's ARB), seems to think it might be okay?
So what does the collective wisdom say? Sure, go on to JXN for lunch, no biggie? Stay local and head back if there's any sign of impending snow? Keep your little butt on the ground until you can afford something that's deiced? Something entirely different?