Why? The high cost of flying..

It seems to me you’re taking an edge case in an attempt to disprove a general economic theory that increased demand causes price increases and decreased demand causes decreased prices.
Not at all. I’m just using what happened to the private airplane industry as an illustration, since that seems appropriate to this discussion. The cost of production stays high when there isn’t the economy of scale to drive costs down. But that’s been pointed out before, I think.
 
Or drop prices, to stimulate demand, right?

For example, when demand for a car model falls off, I don’t usually see prices for those models going up.


We would have to know the breakdown of per unit costs vs fixed costs on GA planes. There are very few units across which to amortize fixed costs, so below a certain production number costs rise. If you formed a corporation and built a factory and hired staff to produce one plane, that single plane is going to be very expensive.

The traditional supply-demand curve you showed reflects price, not cost. It assumes quantities large enough that unit cost is constant, allowing unit price to follow the curve.
 
Go fly a 50 year old, stock 172, and then fly a new one, they are certainly not the same, and the panel alone should make it cost more than the old ones. But it doesn't stop there, everything is nicer, seats, power, AP, AC, sound level is down significantly, and on and on the list goes. My first plane was a 172, it still wouldn't be 50 years old today, if its still flying...and man it was a crude aircraft compared to the 172 of today.
 
I don't agree. GA aircraft ownership has never been practical (at any price) for 99% of us, and a lower entry price won't change that.

The bottom line is, if someone came out with a new 4 seat airplane you could buy for the same price as a truck or SUV we would suddenly have a lot more pilots in the world.
 
Go fly a 50 year old, stock 172, and then fly a new one, they are certainly not the same, and the panel alone should make it cost more than the old ones. But it doesn't stop there, everything is nicer, seats, power, AP, AC, sound level is down significantly, and on and on the list goes. My first plane was a 172, it still wouldn't be 50 years old today, if its still flying...and man it was a crude aircraft compared to the 172 of today.
I hear that... But, I disagree. Over that 50 years, upgrades could be done, in all the areas you name, incrementally. And you could still tell the difference, but it wouldn't be as stark.

Has the airframe changed? Not by much, if at all.
 
Nope. Disagree. Priorities.

Semantics. We both might be right. Practicality is certainly a factor when forming priorities.

We are 500k GA pilots with 198k GA aircraft. There are many in the USA (18.6M millionaires) who can probably afford a new airplane, and probably at least that many who can afford a used, under $50k plane. If money were the only barrier, and if there was practicality in GA aircraft ownership, we should see at least 18 million airplanes out there (50% penetration) , or worst case, 1.8 million (10% of those who can afford to own).

99% is way out of line.

You are right, it's almost ten times less at .15% (330M vs 500k)
 
Semantics. We both might be right. Practicality is certainly a factor when forming priorities.

We are 500k GA pilots with 198k GA aircraft. There are many in the USA (18.6M millionaires) who can probably afford a new airplane, and probably at least that many who can afford a used, under $50k plane. If money were the only barrier, and if there was practicality in GA aircraft ownership, we should see at least 18 million airplanes out there (50% penetration) , or worst case, 1.8 million (10% of those who can afford to own).



You are right, it's almost ten times less at .15% (330M vs 500k)
Yeah, better.

Practicality... That's a bugaboo. How "practical" is it for the urban dweller to own a pickup truck, a 9 passenger SUV. 6 50"+ OLED TV's? To say nothing of 1K$ phones.
 
Semantics. We both might be right. Practicality is certainly a factor when forming priorities.

We are 500k GA pilots with 198k GA aircraft. There are many in the USA (18.6M millionaires) who can probably afford a new airplane, and probably at least that many who can afford a used, under $50k plane. If money were the only barrier, and if there was practicality in GA aircraft ownership, we should see at least 18 million airplanes out there (50% penetration) , or worst case, 1.8 million (10% of those who can afford to own).



You are right, it's almost ten times less at .15% (330M vs 500k)
That's a choose not to, vs a not able to. Huge HUGE difference.
 
This is why I say priorities...

I have a friend who flys for one of those rent a jet companies...

He works 26 weeks a year. He makes good money and has good benefits.

But to get there, he quit a "pretty good" living, after studying for his ground school and ppl, all on his own (no puppy mill), while still working full time.

Once he got his CFII, he instructed to build hours... He and his family lived in food-stamps and ate a lot of beans and rice.

But, in the end... He's flying for a living. Living the dream.

Now, that ain't my dream.

I just want to get from here to there, privately in my own (or a rented) plane. I want to enjoy the scenery and stay out of sardine tubes, and off the interstate.

It's going to take me longer to get from A to B. But it will be more enjoyable/experiential...

Katamarino (sp?) Is flying around the world in a 182... not practical. Not cheap. But a priority to him. Now, I'm sure he makes more $$$ than a lot of us... And less than some. But, he's doing it.

I don't wanna fly around the world... But I wouldn't mind flying to see the kids 4states away... And maybe some relatives on the west coast. And maybe AZ.

And, I can budget for that and do it if I want. Not tomorrow, but sooner than later.

I just think it's a shame that it's so expensive to do so. It shouldn't cost more than maybe 25%-30% more than a car trip. Or 2x as much as a sausage casing in the air.
 
I don't agree. GA aircraft ownership has never been practical (at any price) for 99% of us, and a lower entry price won't change that.

neither are $20,000.00 motorcycles or side by side ATV’s but look how many more of those sell than airplanes. Just about anyone with a job can finance one of those, only the upper elite can swing a new airplane.
 
neither are $20,000.00 motorcycles or side by side ATV’s but look how many more of those sell than airplanes. Just about anyone with a job can finance one of those, only the upper elite can swing a new airplane.
And boats...

At least with those recreational vehicles, the owner/driver/pilot can get some "feels" while driving/riding/navigating...

Motorcycle riding for me is the closest earthbound thing to flying... But, I quit that after my accident.

So, now I fly... Only slightly more practical than a bike. For point A to point B.

The other 2 are fun but not much practicality at all. Unless you fish to eat, and use the 4wheeler to get meat.
 
4 wheeler is definitely not an A to B in a hurry machine but they are an absolute blast when you have a cabin right on the trail system that connects the entire peninsula. Pack a lunch, ride for hours.
 
Semantics. We both might be right. Practicality is certainly a factor when forming priorities.

We are 500k GA pilots with 198k GA aircraft. There are many in the USA (18.6M millionaires) who can probably afford a new airplane, and probably at least that many who can afford a used, under $50k plane. If money were the only barrier, and if there was practicality in GA aircraft ownership, we should see at least 18 million airplanes out there (50% penetration) , or worst case, 1.8 million (10% of those who can afford to own).


You are right, it's almost ten times less at .15% (330M vs 500k)

Jet skis, boats, 4-wheelers, rifles, quilting supplies, woodworking tools... whatever, it’s all cheap, affordable, and not everyone does all of that. Cost has only as much to do with ANY of it as the interest level of those who do it. Meaning: not everyone likes the same thing(s) you like. You like airplanes enough then you’re gonna make it happen. Everything has a higher price tag than it used to, except for opinions. ;)
 
neither are $20,000.00 motorcycles or side by side ATV’s but look how many more of those sell than airplanes. Just about anyone with a job can finance one of those, only the upper elite can swing a new airplane.

True.

Motorcycles and GA airplanes have comparable levels of risk and practicality, and perhaps fun depending on your personal likes, but the barriers to entry are way, way apart.

The training for my motorcycle license required one Friday evening and two weekend mornings. My present ride, a Triumph Daytona 675, cost me ~$14k new out of the showroom. Insurance and maintenance costs are negligible.

By comparison, my PPL probably cost me around $10k (I'm afraid to add it up). To fly, I can rent a plane for ~$120/hr. For twice what my bike cost new, I can by a '60s vintage small plane with antiquated electronics and low performance.

It's no wonder so few take up flying as a recreational activity.
 
True.

Motorcycles and GA airplanes have comparable levels of risk and practicality, and perhaps fun depending on your personal likes, but the barriers to entry are way, way apart.

The training for my motorcycle license required one Friday evening and two weekend mornings. My present ride, a Triumph Daytona 675, cost me ~$14k new out of the showroom. Insurance and maintenance costs are negligible.

By comparison, my PPL probably cost me around $10k (I'm afraid to add it up). To fly, I can rent a plane for ~$120/hr. For twice what my bike cost new, I can by a '60s vintage small plane with antiquated electronics and low performance.

It's no wonder so few take up flying as a recreational activity.
Not to mention, with your basic riding experience and license, you can ride when it's cloudy, or windy, or raining, or at night, or... you get the picture.
 
Thank you. I should have said $750,000.00 rather the "hurry up get this posted" repetition of a quarter million dollars.
A Quarter Million won't buy hardly squat anymore in the aviation world.
It will buy two new VFR Vashon Rangers with plain paint, and pay for insurance and fuel and tiedown for a few years.
 
Go fly a 50 year old, stock 172, and then fly a new one, they are certainly not the same, and the panel alone should make it cost more than the old ones. But it doesn't stop there, everything is nicer, seats, power, AP, AC, sound level is down significantly, and on and on the list goes. My first plane was a 172, it still wouldn't be 50 years old today, if its still flying...and man it was a crude aircraft compared to the 172 of today.
True. My Skyhawk (built as a T-41A in late 1964, never taken by USAF, thus had all kinds of extra gauges inc. carb temp!) was so much slower than a new 172, yet had ostensibly the same airframe. The new seats are rated for [I think] 27g's. They are much quieter (at the expense, unfortunately, of useful load; ours had 908 lbs at a much lighter gross.)
But the airframe is still built one rivet at a time, by people.
 
By comparison, my PPL probably cost me around $10k (I'm afraid to add it up). To fly, I can rent a plane for ~$120/hr. For twice what my bike cost new, I can by a '60s vintage small plane with antiquated electronics and low performance.

It's no wonder so few take up flying as a recreational activity.

Yes, but the airplane FLIES THROUGH THE AIR!! The motorcycle can fly through the air...once. :D
 
I hear that... But, I disagree. Over that 50 years, upgrades could be done, in all the areas you name, incrementally...

...Has the airframe changed? Not by much, if at all.

Frankly I don't see your point.

What would you do to the 172 airframe to upgrade it, to make it a materially better 172 airframe? Cessna pretty well fixed anything that needed improving on the airframe in the first decade of production.

What exactly would you have them do? Spoked chrome wheels? Body colored front and rear bumpers? :rolleyes:

If you were to clean-sheet a light twin airframe today it would probably cone out remarkably like a Seneca or Baron.

Even the much admired Cirrus SR airframe, slick plastic and all, isn't any spectacular breakthrough in configuration or aerodynamic function from a Mooney or Bonanza.
 
True.

Motorcycles and GA airplanes have comparable levels of risk and practicality, and perhaps fun depending on your personal likes, but the barriers to entry are way, way apart.

The training for my motorcycle license required one Friday evening and two weekend mornings. My present ride, a Triumph Daytona 675, cost me ~$14k new out of the showroom. Insurance and maintenance costs are negligible.

By comparison, my PPL probably cost me around $10k (I'm afraid to add it up). To fly, I can rent a plane for ~$120/hr. For twice what my bike cost new, I can by a '60s vintage small plane with antiquated electronics and low performance.

It's no wonder so few take up flying as a recreational activity.

The motorcycle seems far more practical than a small piston GA plane.

You park it in the garage instead of paying for a tie-down/hangar, you can pull it out and go riding in minutes on an impulse without having to fuss with flight planning/fueling/driving first, you don't need to pay a highly skilled mechanic to replace routine parts, there's no BFR, and on it goes.
 
Frankly I don't see your point.

What would you do to the 172 airframe to upgrade it, to make it a materially better 172 airframe? Cessna pretty well fixed anything that needed improving on the airframe in the first decade of production.

What exactly would you have them do? Spoked chrome wheels? Body colored front and rear bumpers? :rolleyes:

If you were to clean-sheet a light twin airframe today it would probably cone out remarkably like a Seneca or Baron.

Even the much admired Cirrus SR airframe, slick plastic and all, isn't any spectacular breakthrough in configuration or aerodynamic function from a Mooney or Bonanza.
I think a clean-sheet light twin would come out like a Diamond DA62, which just crushes the operating costs of the Baron whilst being a much better place to sit.
 
I think a clean-sheet light twin would come out like a Diamond DA62, which just crushes the operating costs of the Baron whilst being a much better place to sit.

Point taken. The DA62 is a nice ride, no doubt about it. And fuel efficient.

But, just crushes the operating costs of a Baron is flat out incorrect. Those engines are incredibly expensive to keep flying.
But if you want to believe that fantasy feel free.
 
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Frankly I don't see your point.

What would you do to the 172 airframe to upgrade it, to make it a materially better 172 airframe? Cessna pretty well fixed anything that needed improving on the airframe in the first decade of production.

What exactly would you have them do? Spoked chrome wheels? Body colored front and rear bumpers? :rolleyes:

If you were to clean-sheet a light twin airframe today it would probably cone out remarkably like a Seneca or Baron.

Even the much admired Cirrus SR airframe, slick plastic and all, isn't any spectacular breakthrough in configuration or aerodynamic function from a Mooney or Bonanza.
That's exactly my point... The 172 is a172 at least from the 70s... So, whyzit so expensive? It is, because fewer being made, and thousands of them out there just like it, so they can't be mass produced.
 
Not a given. A single “glass panel” may end up being less cost overall than a 6-pack of conventional “steam” gauges.

That single glass panel needs a bunch of boxes elsewhere in the airplane to drive it, at least in the G1000 systems I'm familiar with. And the two-panel G1000's total weight is way more than the steam gauges; it includes the standby battery behind the PFD, boxes behind the MFD, and boxes under the baggage shelf. There's stuff hidden everywhere, and thick cables to link it all up. Cooling fans for the panels. None of it is cheap.
 
The new seats are rated for [I think] 27g's. They are much quieter (at the expense, unfortunately, of useful load; ours had 908 lbs at a much lighter gross.)

26G for the front seats, 19G for the rear. Those new seats weight at least three times what the old ones did. Some problem areas of the airframe were beefed up. Wheelpants add some. A bigger engine. Garmin's G1000 isn't light. The newer airplane's gross is 2550 as opposed to the 2300 that was common in the '70s. It gained 250 lbs on the gross but the airplane's empty is about 300 lbs higher.
 
What would you do to the 172 airframe to upgrade it, to make it a materially better 172 airframe? Cessna pretty well fixed anything that needed improving on the airframe in the first decade of production.

Nope. As a mechanic I can point out all sorts of problem areas in the legacy airplanes. Places that cracked, especially. Many of those spots were fixed up in the restart airplanes.
 
What you have is a nasty confluence of events that conspire against what we all would think is "reasonable". Some of you aren't going to like the answers.

Costs:
Let's go ahead and beat the liability thing to death up front, and all the nasty stuff that goes with it. But let's not just blame the end manufacturer. Every item that goes into the end product, in this case the airplane, has a "liability tax" attached to it if it's stamped "aviation". So those nuts and bolts that go into that magneto all have a %30-40 tax on them. That completed magneto has a %30-40 tax over and above for the completed unit. That Lycoming, which as two magnetos, has a %30-40 tax on it. And finally, that airframe, which has the engine, which has the mags, which has the nuts and bolts, has a final %30-%40 tax on it.

It isn't additive. It's compounding at each stage of the assembly, and there's thousands of parts. By the time you get to the end of the supply chain, this cost has eaten up practically all of any potential income stream.

Folks tell me after 9/11, business paranoia went into orbit, and insurance rates with them. EVERYONE is risk adverse these days, and the prices reflect that.

Next, let's look at your common leaseback: Back in they day, the FBO was "full service". They did MX, fuel, rentals, instruction, sold parts, sold planes and heck, probably did field overhauls right there. Joe Bag-o-Donuts bought a 172 to lease back. Since the FBO was a dealer, the buyer probably got a bit of a break. Owner then put the 172 on the rental line. The FBO, working with the owner, probably supplied fuel and MX at slightly over wholesale rates, and maybe even carried the plane on their policy. The owner probably got a nice tax break. The school had a steady stream of students plus some more from the GI Bill.

These days, the FBO business is VERY narrow. Anything with risk in it is outsourced. Maintenance are all contractors. Rental and flight school, if there is one, also done by third parties. That means that leaseback has gone from a loss leader to sell airplanes, to a profit center. That means that owner is now getting nicked FULL retail prices (and those prices are high) for each step. The operator (in this case a rental outfit/school) is taking their cut, and the FBO is also taking their share to the tune of margins.

Airports: Take a look at Paul Freeman's site. Look around every major metro area. See how many "3rd and 4th tier" airports have disappeared (my own scale: 1st tier = large airline/corporate fields, 2nd tier = smaller metro/corporate / GA fields with a tower, 3rd tier = busier uncontrolled fields that are smaller corporate/GA and 4th tier = small GA fields). Around every metro area, there were often a dozen or so small fields where someone could park their airplane for pennies. Local MX was inexpensive, and so was the fuel. That's important, but also important was the field was probably a short drive, encouraging people to go, hang out, fly.

With the inexorable growth of the population, those fields, even larger going concerns ones like Zahn's in NYC (look it up), were swallowed and closed. That forced those that could to more expensive locals, which got more even more expensive because of the demand. Plenty of others dropped out because of the higher expense and/or the new hassle of driving to a field that's further away.

Some costs have come down. Look at some old issues of Flying from the 50s and 60s (available on Google Books). Plug those numbers into the ole CPI calculator, and you'd be surprised what that KX170 costs in 2019 dollars.

Resources:
People honestly have fewer resources these days, the primary one of which is time. Wages have been stagnant for close to two decades now, and costs that were once borne by the employer are now on the worker, namely retirement and insurance. People are FORCED to participate in the lottery that is the stock market because interest rates have been near zero for close to 10 years now (unprecedented in history by the way...that low mortgage comes with a nasty price). Companies have managed to manipulate people into thinking $19k a year in a 401k will come anywhere near funding a retirement. People now pay outrageous amounts for insurance and college for their kids, which used to be quite affordable on the local level (easy money for student loans is the culprit there, but that's a story for another time). To be fair, some of the spending these days is highly discretionary...the expense for cable TV, cell phones, "travel sports" and other toys would have been unthinkable in the 60s and 70s, but people these days are practically shammed into doing it at every step ("what? You don't have little Jimmie in that travel soccer club? You're a bad parent! It's only $4000 a year!").

So, now it comes down to time. Your everyday average John and Jane have zero time. Ridiculous pushes for "productivity" means most people are "on" all the time from their employer. Email and cell phones mean they're expected to be available, and if not, they get dinged by some automaton HR person on their performance review. Any time they DO have is precious, and will be spent with their family, and not driving an hour and a half to spend half a day with an airplane, which isn't that family friendly. People are working like fiends, constantly worrying about retirement, insurance and putting their kids through college. Even if there were aircraft available at a CPI indexed cost from 1960, there'd still be light demand because no one has time to be futzing at the airport these days. There are far more family friendly activities that cost far less.

Society changed around the aviator. Much of for the worse, and is reflective of society today. High cost, risk adverse, soak the little guy for as much as possible. Grab yours while you can, because someone will do the same to you.
 
What I can tell you is this from personal experience. My first plane was a 172M II model. The II was Cessna's identifier as it being their "fancy" model, with a bunch of extra equipment in it, and mine was also ordered by the original owner with long range tanks. When I purchased it in 1988 at age 18, the plane was 12 years old, damn I loved it, and boy did it teach me a lot. I got my PPL in it, and then had a lot of great adventures.
But when I got the opportunity to fly a 2019 172, it blew my mind as to how amazingly far Cessna has evolved their little 172. It is also eligible for a simple stc to make 200 hp, and incase 180 hp isn't enough for someone, adding another 20 hp sure allows it to get airborne quickly and climb like you would never expect, the 2018 one I got to fly already had the 200 hp modification, and it outperformed the already awesome 2019.
 
That single glass panel needs a bunch of boxes elsewhere in the airplane to drive it, at least in the G1000 systems I'm familiar with. And the two-panel G1000's total weight is way more than the steam gauges; it includes the standby battery behind the PFD, boxes behind the MFD, and boxes under the baggage shelf. There's stuff hidden everywhere, and thick cables to link it all up. Cooling fans for the panels. None of it is cheap.

I guess I was thinking of the Dynon D10A, which I believe was a $2,700 option in my plane. When I looked into actual gyros instead, they would have been substantially more.

But it’s a given that a G1000 suite is not cheap. Just not sure that multiple independent instruments with roughly the same capabilities would be any cheaper.
 
Wow I want those ten minutes back.
 
That single glass panel needs a bunch of boxes elsewhere in the airplane to drive it, at least in the G1000 systems I'm familiar with. And the two-panel G1000's total weight is way more than the steam gauges; it includes the standby battery behind the PFD, boxes behind the MFD, and boxes under the baggage shelf. There's stuff hidden everywhere, and thick cables to link it all up. Cooling fans for the panels. None of it is cheap.

Not really. Some of the units (like my GRT Sport SX) has the AHRS built right into the box, so very few remote components (the engine monitor box, which communicates with the EFIS via a one-wire serial connection, and the magnetometer in the tail. No cooling fans are needed, nor backup battery. Do steam gauges have a backup vacuum pump? Typically no.

Some of the experimental glass panels start at around $1400, and are capable of full engine monitoring. Have you priced a decent attitude indicator or turn-n-bank lately?

What we need are more STCs to allow these very affordable systems to be installed in certified aircraft. I learned on steam gauges, and originally was going to have a full six-pack in my Experimental. But once I went glass, I have no desire to go back.
 
Not really. Some of the units (like my GRT Sport SX) has the AHRS built right into the box, so very few remote components (the engine monitor box, which communicates with the EFIS via a one-wire serial connection, and the magnetometer in the tail. No cooling fans are needed, nor backup battery. Do steam gauges have a backup vacuum pump? Typically no.

Some of the experimental glass panels start at around $1400, and are capable of full engine monitoring. Have you priced a decent attitude indicator or turn-n-bank lately?

What we need are more STCs to allow these very affordable systems to be installed in certified aircraft. I learned on steam gauges, and originally was going to have a full six-pack in my Experimental. But once I went glass, I have no desire to go back.

I was talking about glass for certified airplanes. Expensive. The backup battery is there for the certification because almost everything has no standby; only an ASI, Altimeter, and attitude indicator. A steam panel has the TC and VSI so that partial-panel is possible in IFR; a dead glass cockpit would put the pilot in considerable difficulty. No radios or anything.

But glass is the way to go if you can do it. The prices will come down as more competition happens. Isn't Dynon seeking certification? Maybe thay have it already. The stuff is all made with robotic machinery and it's only the small volumes and lack of competition that make it expensive. Oh, and the huge liability, of course. No amount of automation or competition will fix that. Steam gauges are all hand-assembled and calibrated and tested and so on. Labor costs are huge.
 
The standard of living for today's young adult generation is the highest in world history. They have supercomputers in their hands, they have the nicest autos to drive, they order their food delivered to them, and have access to instantaneous, cheap and endless entertainment on the internet. As a general rule, they have no interest in getting their pilot's license and spending money to fly.

Massive government redistribution of wealth will not solve this problem, but will certainly make it worse. History has demonstrated this lesson multiple times.

That’s a massive generalization and not the type of basis to build an arguement from. This generation would just as soon do the same things as every other generation before them but they simply don’t have any money. I’ll put this out there, individual debt is near all time highs— at the same time as employment is at all time highs. So something is not adding up. When the average college student begins his or her career with about 100,000 dollars of debt— how can you blame them for not jumping into the pilot ranks. I started flying at around 27. I’d made sense for me at the time because I had the money to do it. 9 years later and I don’t regret it for a second— paid with cash for every lesson and never took a loan.

I hate it when people blame this generation and make sweeping assumptions. As said, I’m not advocating for redistribution of wealth. I am advocating for a closer examination of why wages have remained stagnant for 40 years relative to inflation while the richest 1% gets even richer. If even the rich people are claiming something is wrong, then maybe something is wrong. We are not an industrial nation anymore. We consume and invent. When, Apple, Google and Amazon combine have less than 250,000 workers we need to take a step back and stop using economic principles that applied generations ago.
 
Yes! But.



But as I mentioned above, those sixty year old planes are close to "good as new" as they can be. So you sell less new.

This has been an interesting discussion so far. I only wish our discussion would change the reality.

Sure and I’d buy a 60 year old airplane because I get it but that does not really solve the fact that for a middle class guy making about 90,000 a year, the only way an airplane is a third of his yearly salary is to buy something 60 years old. If he wants a new plane of comparable capabilities it’s 3x his annual salary.
 
What you have is a nasty confluence of events that conspire against what we all would think is "reasonable". Some of you aren't going to like the answers.

Costs:
Let's go ahead and beat the liability thing to death up front, and all the nasty stuff that goes with it. But let's not just blame the end manufacturer. Every item that goes into the end product, in this case the airplane, has a "liability tax" attached to it if it's stamped "aviation". So those nuts and bolts that go into that magneto all have a %30-40 tax on them. That completed magneto has a %30-40 tax over and above for the completed unit. That Lycoming, which as two magnetos, has a %30-40 tax on it. And finally, that airframe, which has the engine, which has the mags, which has the nuts and bolts, has a final %30-%40 tax on it.

It isn't additive. It's compounding at each stage of the assembly, and there's thousands of parts. By the time you get to the end of the supply chain, this cost has eaten up practically all of any potential income stream.

Folks tell me after 9/11, business paranoia went into orbit, and insurance rates with them. EVERYONE is risk adverse these days, and the prices reflect that.

Next, let's look at your common leaseback: Back in they day, the FBO was "full service". They did MX, fuel, rentals, instruction, sold parts, sold planes and heck, probably did field overhauls right there. Joe Bag-o-Donuts bought a 172 to lease back. Since the FBO was a dealer, the buyer probably got a bit of a break. Owner then put the 172 on the rental line. The FBO, working with the owner, probably supplied fuel and MX at slightly over wholesale rates, and maybe even carried the plane on their policy. The owner probably got a nice tax break. The school had a steady stream of students plus some more from the GI Bill.

These days, the FBO business is VERY narrow. Anything with risk in it is outsourced. Maintenance are all contractors. Rental and flight school, if there is one, also done by third parties. That means that leaseback has gone from a loss leader to sell airplanes, to a profit center. That means that owner is now getting nicked FULL retail prices (and those prices are high) for each step. The operator (in this case a rental outfit/school) is taking their cut, and the FBO is also taking their share to the tune of margins.

Airports: Take a look at Paul Freeman's site. Look around every major metro area. See how many "3rd and 4th tier" airports have disappeared (my own scale: 1st tier = large airline/corporate fields, 2nd tier = smaller metro/corporate / GA fields with a tower, 3rd tier = busier uncontrolled fields that are smaller corporate/GA and 4th tier = small GA fields). Around every metro area, there were often a dozen or so small fields where someone could park their airplane for pennies. Local MX was inexpensive, and so was the fuel. That's important, but also important was the field was probably a short drive, encouraging people to go, hang out, fly.

With the inexorable growth of the population, those fields, even larger going concerns ones like Zahn's in NYC (look it up), were swallowed and closed. That forced those that could to more expensive locals, which got more even more expensive because of the demand. Plenty of others dropped out because of the higher expense and/or the new hassle of driving to a field that's further away.

Some costs have come down. Look at some old issues of Flying from the 50s and 60s (available on Google Books). Plug those numbers into the ole CPI calculator, and you'd be surprised what that KX170 costs in 2019 dollars.

Resources:
People honestly have fewer resources these days, the primary one of which is time. Wages have been stagnant for close to two decades now, and costs that were once borne by the employer are now on the worker, namely retirement and insurance. People are FORCED to participate in the lottery that is the stock market because interest rates have been near zero for close to 10 years now (unprecedented in history by the way...that low mortgage comes with a nasty price). Companies have managed to manipulate people into thinking $19k a year in a 401k will come anywhere near funding a retirement. People now pay outrageous amounts for insurance and college for their kids, which used to be quite affordable on the local level (easy money for student loans is the culprit there, but that's a story for another time). To be fair, some of the spending these days is highly discretionary...the expense for cable TV, cell phones, "travel sports" and other toys would have been unthinkable in the 60s and 70s, but people these days are practically shammed into doing it at every step ("what? You don't have little Jimmie in that travel soccer club? You're a bad parent! It's only $4000 a year!").

So, now it comes down to time. Your everyday average John and Jane have zero time. Ridiculous pushes for "productivity" means most people are "on" all the time from their employer. Email and cell phones mean they're expected to be available, and if not, they get dinged by some automaton HR person on their performance review. Any time they DO have is precious, and will be spent with their family, and not driving an hour and a half to spend half a day with an airplane, which isn't that family friendly. People are working like fiends, constantly worrying about retirement, insurance and putting their kids through college. Even if there were aircraft available at a CPI indexed cost from 1960, there'd still be light demand because no one has time to be futzing at the airport these days. There are far more family friendly activities that cost far less.

Society changed around the aviator. Much of for the worse, and is reflective of society today. High cost, risk adverse, soak the little guy for as much as possible. Grab yours while you can, because someone will do the same to you.

Really love your “resource” section here! It’s spot on to what I view as a real sin of this current economic situation. The insanely cheap money has artificially propped up people’s financial situation for so long now that we have an entire generation that have borrowed to get to where they are and who could blame them— money was free the stock market always goes up, people have jobs— why not borrow. It’s almost a lost belief to “live within ones means”. Many live with the mindset “There is no badge of honor for being able to afford things without borrowing money.” My conclusion, we have an entire generation who are living “artificially wealthy” meaning they don’t own much— they owe money for almost everything.

As can be witnessed by the now 0% interest rates and actually some negative interest rates around the world, we are living during a time that can’t be replicated by any economic principles from prior generations. We can’t even realistically define individual wealth...the Fed can’t figure out how to determine inflation...economists can’t explain stagnant wage growth.... people seem confused by why so many Americans are in debt.... It’s down right scary when you take away all the ways for the academics and the like because the tools that used to be used no longer even work as a means for making policy or understanding what is going on at the individual level.

Connecting it to aviation— we would think most people would be inclined to say “well sure let’s tske out huge loans and go get that personal plane— why not( I actually saw an ad on trade a plane for a 172 with a fixed rate loan of 3.99%). So why are people not doing that? My hunch is the average person has been mislead to believe that flying in small planes is dangerous. We wrap kids in bubble wrap from the second they are born now and have for an entire generation so that kid in his mid 20’s now is already averse to “danger.” Plus, to fly you need to have self confidence and self reliability. I don’t see those traits in high supply these days; how could people have them since when they strip their economic lives down, they don’t have a lot to be proud of.
 
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When the average college student begins his or her career with about 100,000 dollars of debt

That's 100% on them. No one forced them to go to college. There are a crap ton of jobs that pay REALLY well. Ones that don't need a degree in Feminism In the Animal Kingdom and How can We Blame it on White Men. But they got some worthless (easy classes) degree to overpay for from a university with "name" that means absolutely diddly, and expect the world to reward them just because they have this degree. Because since pre-school they got their participation trophy and ribbon for 17th place, and so no matter what they did they were always rewarded even when they didn't do **** to get an award.

Maybe problem isn't solely on them, it's their parents, who coddled the crap out of them, and now they are stuck with decisions they made - although having never faced repercussions of bad decisions growing up, they didn't know what they were getting into. But as an adult, they still made the decision to take out loads of debt.
 
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