Why Must the NYC Transit System Shut Down at 39 MPH?

Jay Honeck

Jay Honeck

Touchdown! Greaser!
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Jay Honeck
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It wasn't a particular speed. I think it was a specific time. The mayor determined it was prudent to shut it down. Amtrack is closed too as are the airports.
And of course, network interrupts tv every 10 minutes with updates.
 
silver-eagle said:
It wasn't a particular speed. I think it was a specific time. The mayor determined it was prudent to shut it down. Amtrack is closed too as are the airports.
And of course, network interrupts tv every 10 minutes with updates.
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Yes, it's a specific speed. From the article:

"Final scheduled runs on all subway and bus lines started at noon, and it would take about eight hours before the system would be shuttered, city officials said. The systems can't operate in sustained winds higher than 39 mph, and shutting it down is a precaution, the transit authority said."
 
A lot of the trains and buses run on elevated tracks and bridges, and there is concern that the vehicles will tip over in stronger winds. They also close the bridges to cars when the wind picks up. Its also worth noting that the transit system, and the entire city as a whole, is basically a collection of antiques barely held together with bubble gum and hope. It doesn't take much to screw all of that up.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Yes, it's a specific speed. From the article:

"Final scheduled runs on all subway and bus lines started at noon, and it would take about eight hours before the system would be shuttered, city officials said. The systems can't operate in sustained winds higher than 39 mph, and shutting it down is a precaution, the transit authority said."
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Jay, your instincts are correct. 39 is a bs number.

Given the forecast, and the 8 hour lead time to total shutdown, somebody decided that as the storm approaches, 39 was the shutdown point.

There is a tremendous amount of dis-information surrounding Irene....

-Skip
 
This seems to be a recent thing- NYC shutting down for storms. When I lived in the area, I don't recall it being shut down for weather.
 
It is the gov't bullying people into leaving. A friends town near the cape is shutting off the water- claiming it might be contaminated. Perhaps. More likely it is coercion to get everybody to do what they are told. Leave your house with all your tools and camping supplies and we will put you up in a nice elementary school gymnasium. Oh and we forgot to mention there won't be any water in the gym as the town water is off.
 
A lot of the subway system is underground, too, and if they get the surge that's forecast, it could flood. I also think part of the reason is to get everyone to stay home so the emergency crews aren't tripping over them, and the first responders aren't wasting their time saving them from their own stupidity and can tend to the critical tasks they face overnight.
 
Jay Honeck said:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2011-08-27-hurricane-irene-new-york-evacuation_n.htm

I don't get it -- a 39 mph wind is pretty normal here in Texas, yet they have to shut the entire New York City transit system down (buses, subways, AND trains) when winds reach 39 MPH?

Is that just an arbitrary number, or does it have some real meaning?
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Jay, have you actually driven a bus in a 40 mph crosswind? I've had the onshore gusting nearly take my ambulance off the road before.

Not to mention, when the wind is sustained at 39, that really means 39G50 or something like that.

Between wind driven storm surge flooding the tubes to wind blowing cars off the Elevated, it makes sense to draw the line somewhere and conservatively at that. So yea. It's arbitrary, but reasonable.
 
The 39 kts isn't about damage, it's about timing. Once you hit 40kts in the face of an approaching storm you've started hitting the serious bit and it won't be long before the wind is of a strength where it can blow trains and busses over, so since storms move at variable speed and path they chose that wind speed to set the "Secure it down" bell rather than a time of a day or other criteria. Remember, you have to give the operators time to put their equipment away and get home or to shelter under "safe" conditions before the brunt of the storm hits.
 
Cap'n Jack said:
This seems to be a recent thing- NYC shutting down for storms. When I lived in the area, I don't recall it being shut down for weather.
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Depends on wind strengths. NYC hasn't had a stong storm in a long time. There's a lot of big 30+ year old glass high off the ground in that city and much of it is secured with 30 year old adhesive for the most part. I don't know how many hurricanes you've been in, but that wind will get in little cracks and just work things loose. If I was a city manager my big concern would be injuries from flying debris.
 
ClimbnSink said:
It is the gov't bullying people into leaving. A friends town near the cape is shutting off the water- claiming it might be contaminated. Perhaps. More likely it is coercion to get everybody to do what they are told. Leave your house with all your tools and camping supplies and we will put you up in a nice elementary school gymnasium. Oh and we forgot to mention there won't be any water in the gym as the town water is off.
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There you go, read this above. Want to know why Katrina went the way it did? It's right there. If you don't want to evacuate, I have no issues with that. If you die though, I don't want to hear any bitching out of people how poorly the government responded in efforts to save you.
 
Henning said:
There you go, read this above. Want to know why Katrina went the way it did? It's right there. If you don't want to evacuate, I have no issues with that. If you die though, I don't want to hear any bitching out of people how poorly the government responded in efforts to save you.
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In NYC, ive read that 60% don't own cars and 50% domt have access to cars. Mass transit shutting down. How do they evacuate?
 
Doggtyred said:
In NYC, ive read that 60% don't own cars and 50% domt have access to cars. Mass transit shutting down. How do they evacuate?
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Most of the people in the citiy have somewhere indoors to get that will be above the flood water level. They just need to slap some duct tape across the windows to keep the glass from flying and they'll be fine.

The wind doesn't do much as far as people and animals are concerned, it's the storm surge and flooding. Remember, as the storm moves north it's going to stack a lot of water into the LIS. The real hazard is if the storm surge coincides with high tide. There is the chance that a major wall of water can sweep across Cape Cod. Not sure how much flood damage you've witnessed, but the force just a 1' tall wall of water has is pretty incredible. The Japan Tsunami was only a few feet deep and look at the devastation it wrought.

If a bunch of tools is worth that much to you, you should have them insured. Tools don't do you much good anyway when you got washed out to sea with them but no boat... If you're on high ground, say 12' or better, you're ok mostly. Below that I'm on a boat or I'm gone.
 
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Well, the reason I asked is that a "39 mph" (not "knots", BTW) wind is pretty common in Texas. Heck, it was common in Iowa. Yet buses, motor homes, and trains seem to continue to operate.

The part about shutting down the trains was especially odd, if you ask me. If your train can be blown off the tracks at just 39 mph, you either have a VERY light train, or you've designed something wrong.

Now the point about it being a "threshold" speed, assuming an escalation of the storm, makes sense -- but that's not what the guy said. (I actually saw the guy say that statement on CNN.)

Oh, well. Just idly wondering whether there was something peculiar about NYC's transit system that made it particularly vulnerable to wind, or whether this was yet another example of the city's "risk manager" plucking a number out of his/her arse.
 
They were taking the I'll wait and see if it's really bad before I evacuate option out of the equation.

39 mph winds on a high profile vehicle, large flat sides, is like planning a two hour flight with two hours of fuel. You just know something bad is going to happen.:yikes:
 
Jay Honeck said:
If your train can be blown off the tracks at just 39 mph, you either have a VERY light train, or you've designed something wrong.
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Yeah, subway trains aren't freight trains. The authoritahs were definitely erring on the side of caution.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Well, the reason I asked is that a "39 mph" (not "knots", BTW) wind is pretty common in Texas. Heck, it was common in Iowa. Yet buses, motor homes, and trains seem to continue to operate.

The part about shutting down the trains was especially odd, if you ask me. If your train can be blown off the tracks at just 39 mph, you either have a VERY light train, or you've designed something wrong.

Now the point about it being a "threshold" speed, assuming an escalation of the storm, makes sense -- but that's not what the guy said. (I actually saw the guy say that statement on CNN.)

Oh, well. Just idly wondering whether there was something peculiar about NYC's transit system that made it particularly vulnerable to wind, or whether this was yet another example of the city's "risk manager" plucking a number out of his/her arse.
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All up and down the ICW, especially the stretch between Charleston & Beaufort NC, 35kt winds and they lock all the bridges down and you get stuck. That's why I never run inside there, I'm better waiting a couple days for the weather to break and just run outside.
 
MSPAviator said:
Yeah, subway trains aren't freight trains. The authoritahs were definitely erring on the side of caution.
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Freight cars get blown off the tracks all the time, mostly when empty.
 
MSPAviator said:
Yeah, subway trains aren't freight trains. The authoritahs were definitely erring on the side of caution.
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There's a whole lot of moving parts besides the trains themselves.
Don't forget, there are train crossings at grade, and the arms may have a functional limit. Power lines, overheads, all kinds of other stuff.
Some trains are on bridges that may have a wind limit. Winds get accelerated through the streets, magnifying the effect on crossing buses.

You have to look through the entire system and find the weak points and break points. The weakest links are your limits, and they're built for the environment they're in.
In Colorado, the light rail (and all its components) are built to our wind codes, which are based on historical winds. I will bet NYC's historical limits are much lower than ours.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Impressive!

However, I suspect those winds were significantly higher than 39 mph.
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yes they were. But like I pointed out subway cars are light rail and will blow off of track much sooner. You're comparison of a freight car and a urban light rail car is not logical, different beasts. But we can see that even those big heavy cars can get blown off of the rails.
 
I could see the train at the bottom of the slope from my place in TX, 30-40 kt winds were not uncommon from the North, perpendicular to the train. Those winds did not bother it. 50 knots and it starts swaying noticeably. 70 kts and its in its side, loaded or empty. Happened several times over 7 years along that subdivision, twice within view of the house.
 
ScottM said:
yes they were. But like I pointed out subway cars are light rail and will blow off of track much sooner. You're comparison of a freight car and a urban light rail car is not logical, different beasts. But we can see that even those big heavy cars can get blown off of the rails.
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No argument, here, but...that wasn't my point. My point was to question the significance of the number "39", which is a wind speed that we routinely see here in Texas. And in Iowa, for that matter.

It's evident that the number itself is arbitary. They needed a threshold, and that's what they came up with.

Can you imagine the number of all-day meetings it took the CYA NYC bureaucracy to come up with the number "39"? LOL! :lol:
 
Jay Honeck said:
No argument, here, but...that wasn't my point. My point was to question the significance of the number "39", which is a wind speed that we routinely see here in Texas. And in Iowa, for that matter.

It's evident that the number itself is arbitary. They needed a threshold, and that's what they came up with.

Can you imagine the number of all-day meetings it took the CYA NYC bureaucracy to come up with the number "39"? LOL! :lol:
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I thought 39 was a jump bw categories ?
 
Boy, it didn't take you long to become an arrogant Texan!

Let me know how many subways and other form of mass transit you have their in Mustang Beach or anywhere in Texas.
 
flyingron said:
Boy, it didn't take you long to become an arrogant Texan!

Let me know how many subways and other form of mass transit you have their in Mustang Beach or anywhere in Texas.
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DART Rail (Dallas):
dartrailmapjun2011large.gif

DART (including surface)
http://www.dart.org/maps/pdfmaps/DARTSystemMap06dec10.pdf

The T (Fort Worth):
http://www.the-t.com/MapsSchedules/SystemMap/tabid/204/Default.aspx

Metro (Houston):
http://www.ridemetro.org/SchedulesMaps/SystemMaps/pdfs/METRO-System-Map-Inside.pdf

Capitol Metro (Austin):
http://www.capmetro.org/riding/current_schedules/maps/system_map.pdf

VIA (San Antonio):
http://www.viainfo.net/BusService/SystemMap.pdf

Corpus Christi RTA:
http://www.ccrta.org/WP-images/RTA-System-MAP-sm.pdf

SunMetro (El Paso):
http://www.elpasotexas.gov/sunmetro/_documents/system_map.pdf#view=fitH

And, yes, Port A has transit as well:
http://www.cityofportaransas.org/Transportation.cfm

---

One sometimes must relieve oneself from one's preconceived notions and childish biases.
 
Originally Posted by ClimbnSink
It is the gov't bullying people into leaving. A friends town near the cape is shutting off the water- claiming it might be contaminated. Perhaps. More likely it is coercion to get everybody to do what they are told. Leave your house with all your tools and camping supplies and we will put you up in a nice elementary school gymnasium. Oh and we forgot to mention there won't be any water in the gym as the town water is off.


Henning said:
There you go, read this above. Want to know why Katrina went the way it did? It's right there. If you don't want to evacuate, I have no issues with that. If you die though, I don't want to hear any bitching out of people how poorly the government responded in efforts to save you.
Click to expand...

The big difference is if you prepare for a storm and have the proper equipment then you should make the decision based on the likelihood of flood or wind damage at your specific house. The bigger problem is the large amount of people who don't prepare and have no idea of where their specific house lies in relation to the wind and water damage areas. If you have food/water/power available at your house and you have a plan to keep those things available to you in the case of wind or water damage then you can make a valid decision about evacuation. If you leave then a minor problem at your home can become a major one becuase it left untreated.
 
jtheune said:
Originally Posted by ClimbnSink
It is the gov't bullying people into leaving. A friends town near the cape is shutting off the water- claiming it might be contaminated. Perhaps. More likely it is coercion to get everybody to do what they are told. Leave your house with all your tools and camping supplies and we will put you up in a nice elementary school gymnasium. Oh and we forgot to mention there won't be any water in the gym as the town water is off.




The big difference is if you prepare for a storm and have the proper equipment then you should make the decision based on the likelihood of flood or wind damage at your specific house. The bigger problem is the large amount of people who don't prepare and have no idea of where their specific house lies in relation to the wind and water damage areas. If you have food/water/power available at your house and you have a plan to keep those things available to you in the case of wind or water damage then you can make a valid decision about evacuation. If you leave then a minor problem at your home can become a major one becuase it left untreated.
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Agreed, but when you live below sea level near the sea and a Cat 4 storm is coming your way, you get out because regardless if you are there or not, the likelyhood is a small problem will become a big lethal problem.
 
They chose a reasonable and arbitrary number to discontinue service and give time to STORE those assets where they wouldn't flood, get their staff safely home and still have a margin before the weather got dangerous.

What's the big deal?

Would it have made more sense to run each line until water was in the tubes? Or something bad happened?

A blizzard might bring 50mph winds, but no storm surge. And with a hurricane, the wind WILL get much higher than that. You know it's going to happen. So you make an action plan with conservative triggers.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Can you imagine the number of all-day meetings it took the CYA NYC bureaucracy to come up with the number "39"? LOL! :lol:
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I can tell you! Exactly ZERO. All transit in the City (and suburban rail, too) is the domain of the MTA. All NYC can do is jawbone.

-Skip
 
Doggtyred said:
They chose a reasonable and arbitrary number to discontinue service and give time to STORE those assets where they wouldn't flood, get their staff safely home and still have a margin before the weather got dangerous.

What's the big deal?

Would it have made more sense to run each line until water was in the tubes? Or something bad happened?

A blizzard might bring 50mph winds, but no storm surge. And with a hurricane, the wind WILL get much higher than that. You know it's going to happen. So you make an action plan with conservative triggers.
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This makes sense to me.
 
flyingron said:
Boy, it didn't take you long to become an arrogant Texan!

Let me know how many subways and other form of mass transit you have their in Mustang Beach or anywhere in Texas.
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I think Spike did a good job refuting that nonsensical statement. There is plenty of mass transit all over Texas.

So I'm "arrogant" for asking how NYC came to set "39 mph" as the threshold to shut down their multi-billion-dollar mass transit system, making it difficult-to-impossible for people without a car to evacuate in the face of an on-coming hurricane? Okey-dokey.

Personally, I thought it was a pretty good question to ask. If I was one of those 10 million people who were told to evacuate, I might be a bit curious as to how the 'crats arrived at that extremely low wind speed threshold.

If my mom lived there, for example, I might be truly upset about it if she had been unable to evacuate because someone shut down the only way out of town when the winds were hitting just 39 mph.

So, I asked the question: Why 39 mph? We all know there has to be some number at which they shut 'er down, but why 39? Why not 45? Or 30? What's the methodology behind 39?

No one here knows how the NY transit authorities arrived at that magic number, which is okay -- this is a pretty small group, and we're pilots, not traffic engineers. It was really more of a rhetorical question, since I really didn't expect anyone in PofA to know the answer.

I'm always surprised, however, when people not only don't know the answer -- but then berate the OP for asking the question. It always reminds me of Laura, tearfully shouting at Rob (in the old "Dick Van Dyke Show"), "Well if you don't know, I'm certainly not going to TELL you!" :rolleyes:
 
Jay Honeck said:
I think Spike did a good job refuting that nonsensical statement. There is plenty of mass transit all over Texas.

So I'm "arrogant" for asking how NYC came to set "39 mph" as the threshold to shut down their multi-billion-dollar mass transit system, making it difficult-to-impossible for people without a car to evacuate in the face of an on-coming hurricane? Okey-dokey.

Personally, I thought it was a pretty good question to ask. If I was one of those 10 million people who were told to evacuate, I might be a bit curious as to how the 'crats arrived at that extremely low wind speed threshold.

If my mom lived there, for example, I might be truly upset about it if she had been unable to evacuate because someone shut down the only way out of town when the winds were hitting just 39 mph.

So, I asked the question: Why 39 mph? We all know there has to be some number at which they shut 'er down, but why 39? Why not 45? Or 30? What's the methodology behind 39?

No one here knows how the NY transit authorities arrived at that magic number, which is okay -- this is a pretty small group, and we're pilots, not traffic engineers. It was really more of a rhetorical question, since I really didn't expect anyone in PofA to know the answer.

I'm always surprised, however, when people not only don't know the answer -- but then berate the OP for asking the question. It always reminds me of Laura, tearfully shouting at Rob (in the old "Dick Van Dyke Show"), "Well if you don't know, I'm certainly not going to TELL you!" :rolleyes:
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Well, you could develop that kind of emotional response but it would only reflect on your own ignorance of the true hazards of the storm and how to best deal with them. Subways don't evacuate the areas that need evacuating. Most of the area doesn't need evacuating because getting them 20' above sea level is not a problem, and that's what you need to do to protect them. The wind isn't the problem with a hurricane it's the water.
The people that needed evacuating don't have subway or even good bus service.

Evacuating NYC would cost Billions of dollars and is unnecessary for a hurricane. Running expensive electrical equipment to destruction in water is also very expensive. There will be a tomorrow, better to have clear tracks and safe equipment.
 
Henning said:
There you go, read this above. Want to know why Katrina went the way it did? It's right there. If you don't want to evacuate, I have no issues with that. If you die though, I don't want to hear any bitching out of people how poorly the government responded in efforts to save you.
Click to expand...

I enjoyed one lesson they learned from Katrina:

"You need to evacuate."
-- I'm staying.
"You understand that we will not make any effort to rescue you....." (This is, of course, a lie.)
-- So what?
"You'll need to give us the names of your next of kin.
-- Wait. Let me get my coat.
 
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