Weekend trip WX - double check me

CJones

CJones

Final Approach
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Was planning a flight from KCCO (just SW of ATL) to KDSM (Des Moines, Iowa) this weekend. Original plan was to fly up there tomorrow (Friday) and come back sometime Tuesday. It's been a while since I have planned a full flight with such widespread and low IMC, so just looking for a double check on my synopsis here.

TAFs for the entire route are indicating fairly low (< 1,000') ceilings at least until noon tomorrow. That means I would potentially have a hard time finding an alternate for filing purposes without having to allocate most of my fuel to getting to that alternate.

Area forecast for Iowa is calling for freezing drizzle/mist/low ceilings tonight with layers up to FL250 overnight. Combine that with the Prog charts for the next few cycles and it looks like the crud that is causing the ice/high clouds tonight won't be moving out of the route any time soon.

Winds aloft forecast for the DSM area are showing temps right around 0*C at 6k.

At this point, based on the information currently available, I'm looking at a no-go. Low ceilings don't bother me by themselves, but with low ceilings over such a widespread area, finding a filable alternate might be a pain. Not to mention the whole 'freezing drizzle' issue plus fairly high freezing level.

BTW - equipment is a non-pressurized, non-FIKI single with a self-imposed ceiling of 10k due to young kid on-board and no oxygen.

So is there any 'loophole' that I'm missing?
 
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What time on Friday? I figured you would leave in the morning and arrive early afternoon. Looks like no-go. Tops around 8,000 with low ceilings. Below freezing in the clouds. There is an inversion, its about 15 degrees on the ground and almost 30 degrees at altitude.
 

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I live in Cedar Rapids, IA, and everyone around here is preparing for cruddy weather all weekend. We are driving to Chicago Saturday, and I am a bit worried about the freezing rain potential they are talking about. I think you would be taking quite a risk flying here this weekend, but you may find a small window of time to get in here.
 
I probably wouldn't go. But if I did I'd make sure I get into the potential icing situation early before there are any PIREPs so that I could plausibly claim I was not flying into known icing conditions in case something happens.
 
BobThePilot said:
I probably wouldn't go. But if I did I'd make sure I get into the potential icing situation early before there are any PIREPs so that I could plausibly claim I was not flying into known icing conditions in case something happens.
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I hope you're not serious about that last part. Otherwise, it's pretty stupid.
 
I wouldn't go unless the forecast doesn't hold true.
 
Updated TAF for southeast Iowa has freezing drizzle noted pretty much all day tomorrow. Looks like a 14 hr drive is in my future. Yeehaw.
 
CJones said:
Updated TAF for southeast Iowa has freezing drizzle noted pretty much all day tomorrow. Looks like a 14 hr drive is in my future. Yeehaw.
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Not the greatest weather to drive in either. Careful. You can switch from "definitely will kill ya" to "significant chance of dying". LOL.
 
denverpilot said:
Not the greatest weather to drive in either. Careful. You can switch from "definitely will kill ya" to "significant chance of dying". LOL.
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Maybe I can talk my wife into letting us take the Jeep. At least then if we go into the ditch, I can just lock in 4wd and keep going. :) Of course 14 hours of kidney punches wouldn't be very fun either.
 
CJones said:
Maybe I can talk my wife into letting us take the Jeep. At least then if we go into the ditch, I can just lock in 4wd and keep going. :) Of course 14 hours of kidney punches wouldn't be very fun either.
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I was talking to my hygienist about you. Her in-laws live in Iowa, and they've done the GA-IA trip several times. She says it's 18-19 hrs from central GA with kids. :sigh:
 
Just a nit: a TAF is a point forecast that applies only within five miles of the center of the airport complex. Lots of things can cause a TAF to become misleading...airport in a valley, local smog-producing industry, etc. Using TAFs for route forecasts is not the best idea in the world; use the Area Forecasts.

Bob Gardner
 
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bobmrg said:
Just a nit: a TAF is a point forecast that applies only within five miles of the center of the airport complex. Lots of things can cause a TAF to become misleading...airport in a valley, local smog-producing industry, etc. Using TAFs for route forecasts is not the best idea in the world; use the Area Forecasts.

Bob Gardner
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I use the weather channels hourly forecast for various towns along my route :D
 
I would've looked into flying to KSTL or beyond, putting it down at a field with rental cars, driven to DSM for the w/end, then driven back to KSTL and flown home.

That way, you fly for more than 2/3 of the trip and still save yourself a truckload of time.

Weather in STL is looking good and above freezing. Agreed that it's a no go for flying into DSM with a non-fiki airplane, at least at a glance.

Edit: took more than just a glance, DSM definitely not good with SLD's for the early part of the day and then a decent likelihood of icing at low altitudes for the rest of the day. Without FIKI I wouldn't go near it.
 
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BobThePilot said:
I probably wouldn't go. But if I did I'd make sure I get into the potential icing situation early before there are any PIREPs so that I could plausibly claim I was not flying into known icing conditions in case something happens.
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Of all the dumb advice given on here, I think that ranks towards the top. But I'd expect nothing less from you.

azure said:
I hope you're not serious about that last part. Otherwise, it's pretty stupid.
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:yeahthat:
 
azure said:
We're talking about freezing rain :yikes: and you're worried about the FAA?

I stand by that assessment. :yes:
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Unfortunately he's not the only idiot in that regard, but that doesn't make the advice any more intelligent.
 
As I said I wouldn't go. What part of that did some of you have trouble understanding? However if I did go, this would go early to avoid any legal issues from icing PIREPS. If this is a risk someone decides that they are willing to take then it is perfectly legal to go early before some other goody two shoes goes and makes an icing report.

:yes:

You can all thank me now for my timely and free legal advice.

:D

By the way long haired mutt transport boy, you're still misidentifying me and still an idiot.

:rofl:
 
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Ted DuPuis said:
Unfortunately he's not the only idiot in that regard, but that doesn't make the advice any more intelligent.
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An idiot? I find that offensive!

:yikes:

Merry Christmas everyone. I'm spending mine in Honolulu. Sadly no flying for me thanks to a big ol' POTUS TFR

:mad:
 
Crummy weather this week. Just because there aren't PIREP's doesn't mean it's not there. Drive or take the aluminum tube ride.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
 
BobThePilot said:
As I said I wouldn't go. What part of that did some of you have trouble understanding? However if I did go, this would go early to avoid any legal issues from icing PIREPS. If this is a risk someone decides that they are willing to take then it is perfectly legal to go early before some other goody two shoes goes and makes an icing report.
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You clearly have a gross misunderstanding of dealing with icing.

And I'll keep on calling your 93K/ChitDisturber - I like you about as much, and it clearly bugs you. :yes:
 
BobThePilot said:
Merry Christmas everyone. I'm spending mine in Honolulu. Sadly no flying for me thanks to a big ol' POTUS TFR
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The skies will be a little safer.
 
Fearless Tower said:
Could be, and right in line with calling Ted an idiot.
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BobThePilot said:
Let's hope he forgives me :redface:
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26074650.jpg
 
rbridges said:
I was talking to my hygienist about you. Her in-laws live in Iowa, and they've done the GA-IA trip several times. She says it's 18-19 hrs from central GA with kids. :sigh:
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We did it in 15 hours door-to-door on Friday from Newnan. Not bad for travelling with a 5 month pregnant wife and 2 year old son.

Not sure about earlier in the day, but it would NOT have been fun to be coming into the area Friday night. Uber-low ceilings and visibility. We got ~5 inches of snow here in Des Moines Saturday night. Ready to head back south this afternoon.
 
bobmrg said:
Just a nit: a TAF is a point forecast that applies only within five miles of the center of the airport complex. Lots of things can cause a TAF to become misleading...airport in a valley, local smog-producing industry, etc. Using TAFs for route forecasts is not the best idea in the world; use the Area Forecasts.

Bob Gardner
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Good point.

A couple of the TAFs I was looking at were 1.) Destination a/p and 2.) Potential 'pit-stop' locations along the route, which why I put so much value in them.
 
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