Weather trends over large areas and time.

StinkBug

StinkBug

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I'm starting to do some planning for a cross country trip this summer, and I have quite a bit of flexibility on when to go, but will have to decide on dates in the next couple months. Basically looking at a 2 week window, sometime during June, July, or August. What is the best way to find out nationwide weather trends for these months? Or I guess the simpler question is which of these months generally has the least hazardous weather activity?

We'd be flying from Carlsbad, CA to Martha's Vineyard. Right now the planned route is more or less direct on the way there, then flying south down the east coast to the tip of florida and back along the gulf coast....hopefully.
 
You're going to be looking at thunderstorms at those times. Are you going IFR or VFR? Other than that, it's pretty much unpredictable at this point, but if you want to do a google search and search weather history those months, you migh be able to get a VERY broad picture of the weather
 
Last two weeks in July,are usually calm on the east coast. Did a trip this summer to AK and the weather was stable but hot in July. When I was out west found it best to fly early mornings.
 
I'm aware that there's no way to predict for sure, also aware that it's TS season. Just wondering if one of those 3 months is better on average than the other 2. I'm currently VFR, but should have my IR by then.
 
Crossing the west will likely be better the first two weeks of June. I have no idea how the weather east of the Mississippi will be at that time.
 
I'm kinda short on strategic advice when it comes to long term weather planning. So far my list includes this:

(1) If intending to invade Russia, start before June.
 
I'm not sure I understand. In a two week window, you want to fly a triangle course from southern California to Massachussetts to Florida back to southern California? Perhaps I misunderstand.
Depending on the plane and what you want to do, that may be a tall order. I would plan on crossing at least one frontal system on each of the east-west legs. Whether you can find a hole or go around or wait out the system is hard to tell.
What are you flying? Do you have an idea of your travel time? At a guess, it would seem to me that you might have two days for each east-west leg and one or two days for the east coast jaunt.
It sounds to me like it might be tight to get this all done in a two week window if you expect to spend much time on the ground anywhere and deal with likely weather.
As far as your original question, my suspicion is that the later the better. In the midwest, I'd expect to see more rain in June than in July and more in July than in August. You can look at all the Oshkosh threads to see some discussion of weather near the end of July, as well as a lot of discussion of routes. Oshkosh will be a little north of a direct route but may still be useful as a search topic for weather that time of year.
 
Lay hands on FLYING AMERICA'S WEATHER by AOPA's Tom Horne. It's published by ASA...but in 1999.


Bob Gardner
 
jnmeade said:
I'm not sure I understand. In a two week window, you want to fly a triangle course from southern California to Massachussetts to Florida back to southern California? Perhaps I misunderstand.
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Nope, no misunderstanding, that's basically what we're looking to do.

What are you flying? Do you have an idea of your travel time? At a guess, it would seem to me that you might have two days for each east-west leg and one or two days for the east coast jaunt.
It sounds to me like it might be tight to get this all done in a two week window if you expect to spend much time on the ground anywhere and deal with likely weather.
Click to expand...

Aircraft would be a Mooney M20C. Using 135kts as cruise speed our planned course plots out at about 45 flight hours. We have a couple people we'd like to say hi to along the way (which also serve as handy places to sleep at night) but the trip is mostly about the flying, not time on the ground. Plan is 4 days to get east with one rest day, and 5 days on the way back, plus 3-4 days in MA to see my grandparents and chill on the beach, and a couple extra for delays. I have a very flexible schedule and could afford to sit out a weather system if need be. My buddy would need to get back to work, but adding an extra day or 2 wouldn't be the end of the world if safety dictates waiting. Flying home commercial would be his last resort, but also an option if necessary. We'd like to plan for a time with the best odds of getting home on time though of course.

As far as your original question, my suspicion is that the later the better. In the midwest, I'd expect to see more rain in June than in July and more in July than in August. You can look at all the Oshkosh threads to see some discussion of weather near the end of July, as well as a lot of discussion of routes. Oshkosh will be a little north of a direct route but may still be useful as a search topic for weather that time of year.
Click to expand...

Good plan there, I'll look through those threads for sure. I'll also look up the book mentioned.
 
Jim Logajan said:
I'm kinda short on strategic advice when it comes to long term weather planning. So far my list includes this:

(1) If intending to invade Russia, start before June.
Click to expand...

I totally laughed at that.
 
StinkBug said:
I'm starting to do some planning for a cross country trip this summer, and I have quite a bit of flexibility on when to go, but will have to decide on dates in the next couple months. Basically looking at a 2 week window, sometime during June, July, or August. What is the best way to find out nationwide weather trends for these months? Or I guess the simpler question is which of these months generally has the least hazardous weather activity?

We'd be flying from Carlsbad, CA to Martha's Vineyard. Right now the planned route is more or less direct on the way there, then flying south down the east coast to the tip of florida and back along the gulf coast....hopefully.
Click to expand...

Honestly, at this point in time I'd look at the Farmer's Almanac. That probably has a better track record than any other source that far out!
 
The first leg is going to be about on a line between the influences from the gulf and from the northwest. You may end up flying a couple of hundred miles north or south to avoid any east-west boundaries that might generate weather. Storms moving east across the planes you're going to have to find a hole or wait them out. ENSO might be useful for you, but the ENSO predictions are only out about 3 months. Right now, we're looking at a 65% chance of a weak El Nino lasting into spring, so hard to tell what we'll have in summer.
The homeward leg is going to be in the area mostly influenced by gulf weather. Maybe some hurricane forecasts or history could help you there.
East coast I have no clue.
 
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