Weather experts please help me evaluate this trip on thanksgiving

B

Bravo

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Bravo
Thanksgiving day. The 27th. If possible, I am hoping to depart at 7:30-8am from 2G4 (Garrett County MD airport - zipcode 21541) inbound to KTEB (Teterboro NJ airport) for a eta of 9-9:30am and departing as soon as possible. Hoping to be back at 2G4 around 1pm. (to pickup my sister in-law for turkey dinner.)

The weather forecast has been changing daily and at this point I feel I would be better off with some insight from other people. I'm instrument rated and fly a non fiki 182, however I am unsure if this flight could even happen VFR if the ceilings allow due to the changing precip and temps forecast from points A to B.

What say you guys? Would love to hear if you think it's possible and why or vise versa. Thanks.
 
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It's your call ,your flying the trip.The northeast is no place for winter flying when you really have to be there. This time of year ,have to be carefull of ice.
 
It's tuff to plan a day or so out, last couple days I've seen CAVU VFR as VFR gets, and 1k OVC with ice :dunno:

Use common sense, but Id secure a FIKI / ground based or airline ticket backup plan.
 
EminiTrader said:
Pay Scott to do a weather brief with you. Www.avwxworkshops.com. Been training with him for 3 momths. He's top notch.
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Thanks. I have heard he is the guy for this stuff, but I would rather feel you guys out for now.

jordane93 said:
You are PIC. If you don't feel like you can make it don't do it.
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I get that, but that is not very helpful here.

frfly172 said:
It's your call ,your flying the trip.The northeast is no place for winter flying when you really have to be there. This time of year ,have to be carefull of ice.
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I fully understand that but I also feel I am being too cautious.

James331 said:
It's tuff to plan a day or so out, last couple days I've seen CAVU VFR as VFR gets, and 1k OVC with ice :dunno:

Use common sense, but Id secure a FIKI / ground based or airline ticket backup plan.
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Unfortunately this is the only way she will be visiting this year. Doesn't "need" to happen, but hopefully it will.
 
If I were planning the flight, right now it looks doable. Just have a back-up plan and keep an eye on the weather. That is pretty far out, as you know, to get an accurate forecast.
 
Here ya go, got it all worked out for you.
 

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Here's the weather. Happy flying!
 

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If you cannot make your own decisions, you should not fly the trip. Do those that make the decision for you get to log the time? Unreal.
 
KA550 said:
If you cannot make your own decisions, you should not fly the trip. Do those that make the decision for you get to log the time? Unreal.
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You really felt it necessary to post that? Thank you for offering that very helpful and educational information. :rolleyes:

I do indeed plan on making my own decision. I am not an expert in the aviation world like you obviously and do feel it helpful to discuss certain aspects of aviation planning with others at times with those of us that may have more experience than I do.
 
Maybe I need to elaborate on my concerns. I have flown in the snow a few times VFR and I have flown in the rain and other IMC while IFR in warmer weather. What I have not done if fly from freezing weather with snow to warmer weather with rain. I assume there is a point where they will both mix. I also assume that could be an icing risk at some point. I also assume I won't be messing with the clouds at these temps. Since these are all assumptions, I hoped to hear some reasoning as to why I could or couldn't do this trip as it stands. Of course I will continue to look at the forecast. I am not intending to take off based on tonight's forecast and by the time Thursdays comes around it may look great or look like crap and be an easy call.
 
I am not intending to take off based on tonight's forecast and by the time Thursdays comes around it may look great or look like crap and be an easy call.
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That is my thinking too. I still think it looks doable on Thursday, but wait and see how the forecast develops. Good luck!
 
cirrusmx said:
can you send her on amtrak? safer, faster, and reliable.
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You've never traveled the Amtrak NEC during/after a significant weather event, have you :rofl:. Safer, yes. Faster, nope. Driving time is the same as the train time, and flying time is less than half. Reliable, well that depends on the weather....

Bravo said:
Thursdays comes around it may look great or look like crap and be an easy call.
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:yes:

You'll beat yourself up all day trying to make a decision days before. A non FIKI single piston is a game time decision no matter what. So you're best off understanding the limitation and weather factors. And use that knowledge to make the last minute decision.
 
I'll look at it Wednesday for you - really no point in looking any sooner. The weather is so variable.

To the people who are nay saying, you all should get your accounts suspended. The guy is asking a valid question of wanting help with his weather briefing. So you all want to say your weather briefing skills are perfect, you know every tool, and it's always been that way? Because I won't say that...
 
Ted DuPuis said:
I'll look at it Wednesday for you - really no point in looking any sooner. The weather is so variable.

To the people who are nay saying, you all should get your accounts suspended. The guy is asking a valid question of wanting help with his weather briefing. So you all want to say your weather briefing skills are perfect, you know every tool, and it's always been that way? Because I won't say that...
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That would be great! Thank you.
 
Pedals2Paddles said:
You'll beat yourself up all day trying to make a decision days before. A non FIKI single piston is a game time decision no matter what. So you're best off understanding the limitation and weather factors. And use that knowledge to make the last minute decision.
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I agree. Was also hoping to hear some past experiences and learn something new.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
I'll look at it Wednesday for you - really no point in looking any sooner. The weather is so variable.

To the people who are nay saying, you all should get your accounts suspended. The guy is asking a valid question of wanting help with his weather briefing. So you all want to say your weather briefing skills are perfect, you know every tool, and it's always been that way? Because I won't say that...
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BS. He is asking for someone to make a basic decision for him. He did not ask what tools are available. He asked for the decision to be made for him. If he is incapable of making a weather decision, his certificate should be suspended.

Knock yourself out making the decision for him.
 
KA550 said:
BS. He is asking for someone to make a basic decision for him. He did not ask what tools are available. He asked for the decision to be made for him. If he is incapable of making a weather decision, his certificate should be suspended.

Knock yourself out making the decision for him.
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Bull**** yourself. He admitted to wanting input because of the changing forecasts and wanting input from those who know more. Anyone who can extrapolate would include looking at products he may not know about or fully understand. Do you know what a Skew-T is? Did you always know? Have your weather briefing skills improved by zero since your checkride?
 
It looks like you might get a few inches of snow wednesday afternoon/evening. I wouldn't guess a county airport would be plowed the very next day.

Following the snow you will probably have somewhat low ceilings the following day but they might be good enough, really too far out to tell.

Make sure you have a plan B
 
I couldn't even begin to guess about the real feasibility of making this trip VFR until at least Wednesday morning, and even then, the return would be uncertain. My advice is that unless you can stand finding out Thursday morning that flying won't work, and even if you get there on time, being a day or two late getting back, you should drive. Garrett County's weather is often the worst in the region, and as it sits on top o a 3000 MSL hill, it is not at all unusual to be able to get close but not all the way there due to mountain obscuration.

I would also point out that I just did an instrument rating with a pilot at 2G4, and we had one day when we almost didn't get back in IFR (approach right down to mins) when the weather at both MGW and CBE was good VFR.

Bottom line from me is "If you can't decide by yourself, the answer is don't fly'."
 
Ron Levy said:
I couldn't even begin to guess about the real feasibility of making this trip VFR until at least Wednesday morning, and even then, the return would be uncertain. My advice is that unless you can stand finding out Thursday morning that flying won't work, and even if you get there on time, being a day or two late getting back, you should drive. Garrett County's weather is often the worst in the region, and as it sits on top o a 3000 MSL hill, it is not at all unusual to be able to get close but not all the way there due to mountain obscuration.

I would also point out that I just did an instrument rating with a pilot at 2G4, and we had one day when we almost didn't get back in IFR (approach right down to mins) when the weather at both MGW and CBE was good VFR.

Bottom line from me is "If you can't decide by yourself, the answer is don't fly'."
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It was me you did that training with Ron. :D , I am not looking for someone to plan my trip nor am I looking for someone to make that final go/no-go decision. Honestly hoping to learn if this trip could be done safely in the views of other experienced pilots. Not sure why so many think it is unreasonable for a low hour pilot to inquire the insight of others :dunno:
 
dell30rb said:
It looks like you might get a few inches of snow wednesday afternoon/evening. I wouldn't guess a county airport would be plowed the very next day.

Following the snow you will probably have somewhat low ceilings the following day but they might be good enough, really too far out to tell.

Make sure you have a plan B
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Best answer yet.....:thumbsup:
 
dell30rb said:
It looks like you might get a few inches of snow wednesday afternoon/evening. I wouldn't guess a county airport would be plowed the very next day.

Following the snow you will probably have somewhat low ceilings the following day but they might be good enough, really too far out to tell.

Make sure you have a plan B
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Looks like 6+ inches and a winter storm watch right now for Wednesday. Plan B is simply not going. The forecast has gone from not good to worse. :(
 
It looks like a bad day, the kind of day that could get you in a real jam. I would not do it.
 
Bravo said:
Looks like 6+ inches and a winter storm watch right now for Wednesday. Plan B is simply not going. The forecast has gone from not good to worse. :(
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Winter weather flying in the Northeast is always hit or miss. I'm in WNY this week, but drove it because of a little snow that hit Buffalo. ;) As I was driving up I hit freezing rain that caused a number of serious road accidents near Williamsport. The skew-Ts and freezing levels I saw all indicated a good chance of icing on the day of travel. Which later was confirmed by a number of icing PIREPs. I'm glad I did not fly.

Since I have arrived, the winds are howling and I would have dealt with the uncertainty of the return trip weather.

Wait until Wednesday as others have indicated. If the weather is IFR, the freezing level will give you a good idea if you can expect icing. I would look carefully at the forecasts for clouds to see if you are dealing with extensive cloud coverage or perhaps nothing more than a stratus layer with good VMC above. Just keep in mind that you got to fly back and contend with any weather changes that may occur. Winter flying can be challenging...
 
Jimmy cooper said:
It looks like a bad day, the kind of day that could get you in a real jam. I would not do it.
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I agree. The weather has taken a turn for the worst since my initial post.

Marauder said:
Winter weather flying in the Northeast is always hit or miss. I'm in WNY this week, but drove it because of a little snow that hit Buffalo. ;) As I was driving up I hit freezing rain that caused a number of serious road accidents near Williamsport. The skew-Ts and freezing levels I saw all indicated a good chance of icing on the day of travel. Which later was confirmed by a number of icing PIREPs. I'm glad I did not fly.

Since I have arrived, the winds are howling and I would have dealt with the uncertainty of the return trip weather.

Wait until Wednesday as others have indicated. If the weather is IFR, the freezing level will give you a good idea if you can expect icing. I would look carefully at the forecasts for clouds to see if you are dealing with extensive cloud coverage or perhaps nothing more than a stratus layer with good VMC above. Just keep in mind that you got to fly back and contend with any weather changes that may occur. Winter flying can be challenging...
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You guys did get a little snow up there. :yesnod: I have basically made my decision of a no-go at this point unless something drastically changes.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
I'll look at it Wednesday for you - really no point in looking any sooner. The weather is so variable.

To the people who are nay saying, you all should get your accounts suspended. The guy is asking a valid question of wanting help with his weather briefing. So you all want to say your weather briefing skills are perfect, you know every tool, and it's always been that way? Because I won't say that...
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I agree with Ted. It's really hard to make go/no go decisions more than 24-36 hours out. Airlines rarely do, and when they do, it's for a massive event. We're not going to do much better. As always, if you absolutely, positively, must make the trip within a limited time window, it's probably not a good candidate for a GA flight regardless.

Bravo said:
I agree. Was also hoping to hear some past experiences and learn something new.
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Experience is great, but as always, past performance does not guarantee future results :)
 
Bravo said:
I agree. The weather has taken a turn for the worst since my initial post.



You guys did get a little snow up there. :yesnod: I have basically made my decision of a no-go at this point unless something drastically changes.
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What probably won't change is your experience. Your total time and IFR time. Am I assuming incorrectly that you are low time? I think if you were an experienced instrument pilot with some serious time , you would probably have figured all this out for yourself.
 
Ron Levy said:
Bottom line from me is "If you can't decide by yourself, the answer is don't fly'."
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I suspect the OP is fine making the decision, but would like help synthesizing all of the weather information to use to make that decision. Interpreting weather forecasts and weather data is a skill that is learned, and like any skill, is enhanced through training and education. That's why folks like Scott D. are in demand.
 
I never plan on anything this time of the year, but if the day comes up and is flyable, go for it. Wreaks havoc on pax and folks you're going to visit, but that's just how it is.
 
steingar said:
I never plan on anything this time of the year, but if the day comes up and is flyable, go for it. Wreaks havoc on pax and folks you're going to visit, but that's just how it is.
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
We have a winner. No more calls please.

I've learned one lesson in a 40 year career in the cockpit. It doesn't do one bit of good to worry about the weather. There is nothing that you can do about it one way or the other. It doesn't matter what your experience level is or the capabilities of your equipment, when you wake up the morning of the trip it will either be good enough for you to go or it won't. If it's good enough to go, you go. If it's not, you don't. If you really need or want to go then you will want to have a plan B in place. Problems arise when you allow the desire to make the flight interfere with or cloud good judgement.
 
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Dead Stick said:
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
We have a winner. No more calls please.

I've learned one lesson in a 40 year career in the cockpit. It doesn't do one bit of good to worry about the weather. There is nothing that you can do about it one way or the other. It doesn't matter what your experience level is or the capabilities of your equipment, when you wake up the morning of the trip it will either be good enough for you to go or it won't. If it's good enough to go, you go. If it's not, you don't. If you really need or want to go then you will want to have a plan B in place. Problems arise when you allow the desire to make the flight interfere with or cloud good judgement.
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Awwwwww......that's too bad! You won't be able to participate in final jeprodyThe correct answer was experience and total time. Best, Alex.
 
Dead Stick said:
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
We have a winner. No more calls please.

I've learned one lesson in a 40 year career in the cockpit. It doesn't do one bit of good to worry about the weather. There is nothing that you can do about it one way or the other. It doesn't matter what your experience level is or the capabilities of your equipment, when you wake up the morning of the trip it will either be good enough for you to go or it won't. If it's good enough to go, you go. If it's not, you don't. If you really need or want to go then you will want to have a plan B in place. Problems arise when you allow the desire to make the flight interfere with or cloud good judgement.
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Exactly.
And that's why (well in advance) I set a hard stop for my go/no-go decision at a time when I can still make and enjoy the trip by car/alternate or just plain not go. How far out varies by trip and my desires ... Then, I sit back worry-free until the decision point comes and it's time to look at the wx.
 
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