We need to have a discussion on the Ukraine...

Status
Not open for further replies.
Grum.Man said:
I hope we stay out of it.
Click to expand...

You’re right. What we should do is make it clear to Putin that this is the last country, then we make a peace treaty with him and we can declare peace in our time. He won’t dare violate a peace treaty, right?

and I give Taiwan 2 months.
 
bflynn said:
Do you really think he can’t get anything he wants? Most of what you just named isn’t even manufactured inside a US jurisdiction anymore.
Click to expand...

The point is, tighten the screws as far as Western Democracies can. Maybe it won't be enough. OTOH, over time, maybe it will.

I don't think the option of sending the BUFF's in is on the table.
 
As others have said there aren’t good solutions at this point, although long-term counterinsurgency might make Putin’s enablers regret the cost. And would’ve been nice if the last Administration had spent less time tearing up our European alliances, and less energy kowtowing to Russian interests.
 
kyleb said:
I think the truth is very few people want to see a bunch of 20 year old kids have to suffer through the kind of war their Great Grandfathers fought in the '40's. Losing the Ukraine (by itself) is not an existential threat to all of Western Civilization like the threat was from the last opportunist dictator on the continent.

The real question at this point is how do you make it as painful as possible for Putin while doing everything you (Western Democracies, inclusive) can to make sure it doesn't happen again. Forget technology transfer rules. Just don't trade with them. Advise Putin that if he sets foot in a Western country, he's subject to arrest for war crimes. Take any holdings he, his children, their children, or any associates have and sell them at auction to pay for weapons for Ukraine. In 5 years, when he can't get replacement parts for his Mercedes Limo and his 286 based laptop dies, the truth will begin to dawn.
Click to expand...
It's not primarily Putin, it's the oligarchs that are protecting and promoting him. Isn't is fascinating how an avowed Socialist nation can produce so many oligarchs in such a short time?
 
AlleyCat67 said:
As others have said there aren’t good solutions at this point, although long-term counterinsurgency might make Putin’s enablers regret the cost. And would’ve been nice if the last Administration had spent less time tearing up our European alliances, and less energy kowtowing to Russian interests.
Click to expand...

The prior administration was dead on with respect to pressuring Germany to stop buying energy from Russia, and trying to get the rest of Europe to live up to their financial obligations to fund NATO rather than letting them have a free ride on the backs of the U.S. taxpayer. Also, its support of U.S. energy independence kept the price of energy lower, which reduced the excess funds at the disposal of Russian to fund this excursion.
 
PPC1052 said:
At least not the sanctions that they have imposed. But they still haven't removed Russia from the SWIFT banking system. So, the West aren't even really serious about imposing sanctions.
Click to expand...

There has to be a good that changes hands in exchange for money. Unless you can convince the purchaser of Russian goods (use oil as an example) that they should agree to no longer transact (via SWIFT), then either SWIFT sanctions won’t happen or if they do happen, they will have low effect because the good will find its way to the buyer and money to the seller. How will Germany pay for energy if SWIFT is eliminated as a transactional tool?

Hey, I’ll admit I don’t understand details and nuance, and I might have it wrong, so don’t be afraid to educate me. This has been a civil discussion and I like learning.
 
murphey said:
It's not primarily Putin, it's the oligarchs that are protecting and promoting him. Isn't is fascinating how an avowed Socialist nation can produce so many oligarchs in such a short time?
Click to expand...

I can't speak to that. But Ogliarchs want their Jack Daniels and Mercedes too. Given time, I think serious sanctions could damage the Russian economy to the point those Ogliarchs would suffer a bit too. It is hard to pave roads and keep the grid working if your economy is in shambles.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
There has to be a good that changes hands in exchange for money. Unless you can convince the purchaser of Russian goods (use oil as an example) that they should agree to no longer transact (via SWIFT), then either SWIFT sanctions won’t happen or if they do happen, they will have low effect because the good will find its way to the buyer and money to the seller. How will Germany pay for energy if SWIFT is eliminated as a transactional tool?

Hey, I’ll admit I don’t understand details and nuance, and I might have it wrong, so don’t be afraid to educate me. This has been a civil discussion and I like learning.
Click to expand...

Russia produces very little for its size. Its GDP ranking is 11th, behind Germany, France, Italy and Canada. World GDP Ranking 2021 - StatisticsTimes.com It relies on sales of energy (oil and natural gas) for revenue. It can't do that (easily) without access to the SWIFT international banking system. Of course, that would also hurt those that are dependent on or otherwise desire to purchase energy from Russia. (Note my comment above https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/com...ion-on-the-ukraine.136931/page-2#post-3220828) It would also apparently hurt Russia's creditors, which are mostly German and U.S. financial institutions. Russia has indicated in the past that they would see this measure as an act of war, which is some indication that they see it as a significant threat. Russia Would Consider Cutting off from SWIFT as Act of War: Medvedev - Russia Business Today
 
Last edited:
Free topic or am I going to get another POA suspension. I guess the R and P words are allowed but not the C word. :D

@admin, if you suspend me again let me get my feedback on the Caribbean trip first. Hehe
 
kaiser said:
...
Given this over rotation, and that Ukraine plans on conscripting all men 18-60, I’m afraid this will be another Afghanistan.
Click to expand...

I don't think it'll be similar. Ukraine is a much more industrial country, with an educated population and an army. I think it's going to be miserable, and tragic.

bflynn said:
You’re right. What we should do is make it clear to Putin that this is the last country, then we make a peace treaty with him and we can declare peace in our time. He won’t dare violate a peace treaty, right?

and I give Taiwan 2 months.
Click to expand...

Love the Chamberlain reference. Sadly, these days I think he'd be described as a nice guy, rather than a failure.
 
PPC1052 said:
Russia produces very little for its size. Its GDP ranking is 11th, behind Germany, France, Italy and Canada. World GDP Ranking 2021 - StatisticsTimes.com It relies on sales of energy (oil and natural gas) for revenue. It can't do that (easily) without access to the SWIFT international banking system. Of course, that would also hurt those that are dependent on or otherwise desire to purchase energy from Russia. (Note my comment above https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/com...ion-on-the-ukraine.136931/page-2#post-3220828) It would also apparently hurt Russia's creditors, which are mostly German and U.S. financial institutions. Russia has indicated in the past that they would see this measure as an act of war, which is some indication that they see it as a significant threat. Russia Would Consider Cutting off from SWIFT as Act of War: Medvedev - Russia Business Today
Click to expand...


Not too long ago the US was a net exporter of energy. Had that continued, we might have been able to provide an alternative, at least partially, to Russia.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
There has to be a good that changes hands in exchange for money. Unless you can convince the purchaser of Russian goods (use oil as an example) that they should agree to no longer transact (via SWIFT), then either SWIFT sanctions won’t happen or if they do happen, they will have low effect because the good will find its way to the buyer and money to the seller. How will Germany pay for energy if SWIFT is eliminated as a transactional tool?

Hey, I’ll admit I don’t understand details and nuance, and I might have it wrong, so don’t be afraid to educate me. This has been a civil discussion and I like learning.
Click to expand...

Bonds. European individuals and banks own a great deal of RUS bonds. Cut them out out SWIFT, the bonds default, and do a great deal of damage, much like the collapse of collateralized debt cascaded via credit default swaps here. That I believe is the primary reason the Europeans don't want to shut RUS completely out of the system.

The US doesn't really hold a lot of RUS debt on a percentage basis.
 
Albany Tom said:
I don't think it'll be similar. Ukraine is a much more industrial country, with an educated population and an army. I think it's going to be miserable, and tragic.
Click to expand...
I suppose the comparison I was making was that arming the citizenry as an insurgency to counter a Russian occupation could be as devastating as Afghanistan (both times). I recall reading that the Ukraine partisans gave the nazis nightmares during WW2.

I absolutely agree this will be miserable and tragic.
 
Albany Tom said:
I don't think it'll be similar. Ukraine is a much more industrial country, with an educated population and an army. I think it's going to be miserable, and tragic.
Click to expand...
Afghanistan was miserable. It was so bad the Russians, even with their very high pain tolerance, staggered on back home.
 
judypilot said:
It broke my heart to hear the Ukrainian foreign minister give one reason why Americans should care, that we keep our promises (see geezer's comments about the disarmament treaty with them). We don't. I got an earful about this from a Hungarian colleague who was old enough to remember when the Soviet Union invaded Hungary in 1956. He was still mad about it, and I couldn't blame him. We keep our promises when it's convenient. In this sense, our government is no different from any other government. Our strength is our people, not our government.

I mourn for the Ukrainian people, and I think we should put on more severe sanctions, but that may not be possible. Apparently some of our allies do not want us to ban Russia from the Swift banking system, and the same may be true for putting sanctions directly on Putin and his family (does he even have a family?). It is, to a large extent, Europe's fight, so I'm not sure going over their wishes is a viable option, even if it would be the best option.

I've found this to be so depressing. I feel like we're being dragged back into the height of the Cold War, but then again, I'm not too sure we weren't already there--with China.
Click to expand...
I agree about keeping our word, but I'm also torn, because I believe some of those promises were wrong to have been made in the first place, and not in the US's best interests, and certainly not worth intentionally sending a friend or neighbor to die over. Regarding China and Taiwan - definitely more of a direct threat.
 
PPC1052 said:
Afghanistan was miserable. It was so bad the Russians, even with their very high pain tolerance, staggered on back home.
Click to expand...

I mean miserable for the defenders. Not that Afghanistan didn't have a rough time with the Russians. But at the time most of Afghanistan didn't have electricity, and they were and are an agricultural economy. Ukraine makes spacecraft. By comparison, I hate the quote, but you can't bomb people back to the stone age who live in the stone age. The people of Ukraine seem less well suited to asymmetric warfare. Hell, most of earth is less well suited to that than the Afghans.

RyanShort1 said:
I agree about keeping our word, but I'm also torn, because I believe some of those promises were wrong to have been made in the first place, and not in the US's best interests, and certainly not worth intentionally sending a friend or neighbor to die over. Regarding China and Taiwan - definitely more of a direct threat.
Click to expand...

"First they came for the ....." It's a different context, but similar in that the reason we keep promises to protect our friends isn't completely altruistic. Is so that we can continue to have friends to keep. Long term, it's so we can continue to exist. Not that it's a justification, but we've sent friends and neighbors for worse reasons, and much more pointless causes. I'm NOT suggesting we do something now, but I do believe we failed. Because we were wound up about the wrong things, focusing on impossible and silly causes, and degrading our capabilities.
 
After just getting out a 20 year misadventure in Afghanistan I don't see there being enough popular support for military intervention from US. I would say we also are generally getting tired of how much we spend on our military while much of Europe only bothers to maintain a token force knowing they can call us if there's trouble. None of that is the Ukrainian people's fault of course but it's where our country is right now.

My expectation is that after much death, destruction, and drama this will end in negotiation. Russia will probably end up with some portion of the Ukraine under their control and some sort of concessions that let the NATO nations tell their people we won. Quite likely leaving a local mess that we'll revisit in a generation.
 
I'm kinda glad for something tangible to actually fear, instead of cooties and masks.

pew pew!
 
I think most agree, we don’t want to be fighting Russia.

It’s all those other maneuvers, diplomatic, sanctions, alliance adjustments, etc, that can/could of been done ahead of time. I’m not saying who should or shouldn’t be joining NATO, but another thing on the table.

This is just the start, no idea where it will lead.
 
Closed.

While the Management Council recognizes that this is an important subject, we have to be fair with our moderation practices as to what topics can and cannot be discussed per the Rules of Conduct. Unfortunately, this topic is considered Spin-Zone material and does not comply with the published Terms and Rules.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top