Twinkie's value.

I'm still trying to figure out why Henning has had so many incidents in twins he's owned? Seems like he's caged an engine about as many times as I've posted on this board :)

The problem with twins is that unless you can truly afford it -- it's just not worth it. There are a lot of really sketchy twins running around. The pilot simply cannot afford to keep up with two engines and more systems and because of that they're way way more likely to run into an issue putting their redundancy to the test. Had they had a simpler airplane they could have afforded more preventative maintenance and not had the failure in the first place.
 
There has been an issue with some fine-wire plugs in that they develop high resistance accross the resistor pack. It should be 1.5 kOhm or so, some have been found to have 50 kOhm or more. If you have high resistance accross the plug, the electricity will search itself a different path some of the time. In addition to engine roughness, this is believed by some to cause damage to the magnetos. Pull the plugs and measure their resistance from the contact to the electrode. If they are not up to spec, replace them.

Interesting, got a link. I'd like to read about this.
 
Agreed on both points. As long as the argument is kept in perspective, and both sides are given equal weight (the pilot doesn't get to choose the time and circumstances of such failures, other measures are available to provide redundancy) then it becomes a more logical discussion. The advent of "pseudo panels" in the hand-held GPS units has eliminated my need for extra alternators and such in the singles.

I may have in the past, but my current philosophy is not to shut down a running engine unless I have reason to believe it will stop running. Example: catastrophic oil leak (not minor oil leak). On my mag failure the other day which had the left engine bucking like a rodeo bull, I left it running, diverted, and landed. In a single I would've needed new shorts.



If they make it. A mag failure by FAA regulations is allowed to reduce your available power by up to 15%. Doesn't sound like a big deal until you've got some other problem that goes with the mag failure, and ends up reducing power further. Dropped or detonating cylinders come to mind (both of which have happened to me on mag failures).

Failed alternators and vacuum pumps are other examples where redundancy is nice. Of course, these are possible to backup on a single, but typically aren't.
 
I'm still trying to figure out why Henning has had so many incidents in twins he's owned? Seems like he's caged an engine about as many times as I've posted on this board :)

The problem with twins is that unless you can truly afford it -- it's just not worth it. There are a lot of really sketchy twins running around. The pilot simply cannot afford to keep up with two engines and more systems and because of that they're way way more likely to run into an issue putting their redundancy to the test. Had they had a simpler airplane they could have afforded more preventative maintenance and not had the failure in the first place.

Preventative maintenance? There is only oil changes to do on a plane that are preventative maint. There is NOW a standard to change oil & fuel lines at 5 year intervals, that standard did not exist back then and wouldn't have mattered anyway because the hoses/fittings that let go were all new/defective that ended up with an AD on them. Preventative replacing of a known good part adds as much risk as continuing use. The only preventative maintenance an aircraft engine needs is oil service and whatever ADs apply. Everything else is repair on demand. Do you change out all your cylinders every 1000hrs? Points every 100hrs? Crank shaft and cam at 1900?

Think about it, the only difference in preventative maint between a twin and a single is the quantity of oil and belts. Nothing else is preventative, it's repair.
 
OK, just random comments here...

If VREF is 74K you would have to settle for 50% 60% of that if you actually tried to sell..
4 guys (partners) on my field, a year ago, had to almost give away one of the best equipped twinkies you have seen - with mid time factory zeros on it... (they got into financial problems due to the economy)

Agree on poorly maintained twins (planes in general, but twins more so) being money pits for the next owner... Can't count the number of times my tired looking Apache has been admired and the guy says, "I bet it is cheap to own." And I say, "No. It costs a bloody fortune." They look at me funny as they walk away... What they don't realize is that fancy paint does not make an airplane fly... I have over the years put more than the original price of the plane back into engines, props, coolers, power pack, hoses, mags, wires, plugs, accessories, retiring AD's, and maintenance.. It's my work horse for traveling and I don't care about looks... I do care that I can launch for the West coast or the East coast and not give a single thought to having problems - it is gonna make it there and back because I have spent the money to make it so...

Taking off with a known mag failure is just a bad bet... The idea that you are not going to have two mags fail in close proximity is wishful thinking... In reality (and statistics) having one mag fail from time/heat/etc. means the other mag is even more likely to fail soon since it was subject to similar stress over a similar time period... If the feds would mandate to rebuild the mags with all new parts, and replace wires and plugs on an hours flown basis, mag failures would almost cease...

$6 av gas and going up is so true and includes car gas/diesel... I made two trips to Florida from Michigan this winter, pulling a boat... In years past I did not even give a thought to the gas price... This year I spent as much on diesel plus motels as I would have had I flown both trips in the Apache (no motel - don't cry Jay!)... Makes me think I need to keep a boat down there and just fly...

And back on poorly maintained: Steve, the mechanic on my field is a crusty bugger... He has refused to do the annual on two planes this year because they were in such poor shape he knew he was going to find lots of expensive problems and the owner(s) was saying, 'just do the minimum'... Steve says he is too old and too poor to put up with whiners who won't pay their bill... Says the planes brought to him (not his regular customers) have gotten in worse shape in recent years... GA at the low end is visibly dieing...
 
I use 21gph at 180kts a 210 uses 17 at 160. On a 540nm trip that's 63 gallons or $378. The 210 will take 58 gallons or $348, a difference of $30 or five and a half cents a mile extra.

210 burns less than 16 at 164 KTAS.
 
210 burns less than 16 at 164 KTAS.

Sorry, six cents a mile.:rolleyes2: If I fly 6000 miles a year, three cross continent trips a year plus some regional flying, my fuel premium for the second engine is $360.
 
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So it's OK if you slice it to half-cents per mile but nit-picking if somebody else corrects your misinformation?


Sorry, six cents a mile.:rolleyes2: If I fly 6000 miles a year, three cross continent trips a year plus some regional flying, my fuel premium for the second engine is $360.
 
Well, this is certainly fresh for me, as I just yesterday got my plane back after experiencing a complete mag failure on my Lycosaur O-540. (The coil, which my A&P gave back to me, has a hole burnt right through the side. The electricity decided it would be more fun to arc through the side of the coil, into the mag housing, rather than going down those boring old wires...)

The only symptom (other than a failed mag check, pre-flight) was a more leisurely rate of climb. Nothing on the JPI or fuel flow indicated a problem. The redundant system worked as advertised.

Your EGTs would have been higher, but you may not have noticed it because the O-540 has particularly low EGTs to start, and as I recall from previous discussions you tend to run your engine pretty rich.

It varies based on engine model in my experience, with low-power engines caring less than high-power. I've had mags fail multiple times on the IO-520s in the 310, and it typically doesn't handle them very well for very long. In the Aztec (which effectively has the same engine as your plane), it doesn't seem to care.

However, I've done endurance tests with one mag, and after a while, even the parallel-valve IO-540s will start to drop cylinders.

Agreed on both points. As long as the argument is kept in perspective, and both sides are given equal weight (the pilot doesn't get to choose the time and circumstances of such failures, other measures are available to provide redundancy) then it becomes a more logical discussion. The advent of "pseudo panels" in the hand-held GPS units has eliminated my need for extra alternators and such in the singles.

Correct. And as we both know, the flying that you do in your single is significantly different than the flying I do in the twins I fly.

I'm still trying to figure out why Henning has had so many incidents in twins he's owned? Seems like he's caged an engine about as many times as I've posted on this board :)

I've noticed that, as well. In my 1700ish hours in the logbook (which amounts to about 3000 hours of engine run time), plus the thousands of hours I've done on engine tests, I've never had cause to cage an engine in the air, and rarely on the ground. These engines are, overall, reliable.

The problem with twins is that unless you can truly afford it -- it's just not worth it. There are a lot of really sketchy twins running around. The pilot simply cannot afford to keep up with two engines and more systems and because of that they're way way more likely to run into an issue putting their redundancy to the test. Had they had a simpler airplane they could have afforded more preventative maintenance and not had the failure in the first place.

I'd agree with this, but it isn't limited to a single vs. twin argument. How many crappy singles have we seen because someone can't afford the plane he or she just bought? Perhaps twins are more prone to this with the advent of $200,000 Lears and $30,000 310s, but the same is true for someone who can't afford to run a 150 or a Cherokee, but tries to. I know in my case, I've seen a frightening number.
 
In fairness, the MX numbers for twins can bring tears to your eyes in ways that singles can't possibly match.

I see the MX invoices for numerous airplanes (some from owners, some from shops for which I provide consulting services) and am struck by the differences between the number than twin owners think they should pay vs. the actual cost of maintaining cabin-class twins. I can't count the number of times a new owner has said "well, this first annual was expensive, but we cleaned up a lot of stuff that shouldn't recur."

The good news is that they're right, the bad news is that other things show up that are equally or more expensive, and so so for each year of ownership.

I'd agree with this, but it isn't limited to a single vs. twin argument. How many crappy singles have we seen because someone can't afford the plane he or she just bought? Perhaps twins are more prone to this with the advent of $200,000 Lears and $30,000 310s, but the same is true for someone who can't afford to run a 150 or a Cherokee, but tries to. I know in my case, I've seen a frightening number.
 
In fairness, the MX numbers for twins can bring tears to your eyes in ways that singles can't possibly match.

Very true. But which planes are we comparing?

I see the MX invoices for numerous airplanes (some from owners, some from shops for which I provide consulting services) and am struck by the differences between the number than twin owners think they should pay vs. the actual cost of maintaining cabin-class twins. I can't count the number of times a new owner has said "well, this first annual was expensive, but we cleaned up a lot of stuff that shouldn't recur."

The good news is that they're right, the bad news is that other things show up that are equally or more expensive, and so so for each year of ownership.
If one compares a 340-421 with a Cherokee or Bonanza, certainly the financial fortitude required is immense. The planes are more complicated, parts are more expensive, and in all likelihood were previously owned by someone who couldn't afford them, either. It's no secret that a more complex airplane costs more. Well, you and I think it's no secret, but apparently it is a secret to some.

However, a 340-421 vs. a Cherokee is not a very fair comparison. An A36 to a BE58 would be a fair comparison, and in that case the only extras you may have as far as systems go are the extra engine and prop, and potentially radar and de-ice (which an A36 can be had with).

So if you have $100,000 to spend and you can't afford to spend $600/hour, then you shouldn't buy a 421A. :)
 
Ah, that it were true. For openers, I don't see any references in your list that address cabin heater, fuel system complexities, various ducting and air-handling systems, cowling complexities and other issues that impact costs.
An A36 to a BE58 would be a fair comparison, and in that case the only extras you may have as far as systems go are the extra engine and prop, and potentially radar and de-ice (which an A36 can be had with).
 
Ah, that it were true. For openers, I don't see any references in your list that address cabin heater, fuel system complexities, various ducting and air-handling systems, cowling complexities and other issues that impact costs.

Good point on the heater. Of course, exhaust heaters on singles have their issues (albeit less expensive). Other expenses that come to mind include the 20 ft long cables connecting your control quadrant to the engines (when they break). Otherwise, a Baron isn't exactly a complicated airplane, certainly not like a 421 or a Duke. Seems the Bonanzas have just as annoying of cowling (if not moreso).

The 310, by comparison, has the nicest cowling I've had to work with on any single or twin. If it takes you a minute to take the top cowl off you're slacking.

I've compared with some Bonanza owners and found their hourly costs, wet, are surprisingly close to my Aztec's hourly costs, also wet. For that they get some extra speed but a smaller cabin. I'd expect a BE55 to have similar hourly costs to the Aztec, as well (Lance can comment better, I'm sure). Overall, when I compare costs of equivalent singles and twins, the twins come out to about 30% more per mile.

The danger comes in when someone says "I have $100,000 to spend on a plane. I could buy a 421 for the same cost as a Bonanza. I'm getting the 421!" This is fine if the person can afford the operating costs, plus the probably required (or at least good idea) sim training every year. If he or she can, no problem. If not, then that person has gotten him or herself into a world of hurt.
 
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Interesting, got a link. I'd like to read about this.

If you have an account on beechtalk.com, in the engine section there is a 25 page thread 'TN Bonanzas with fine wire RHB32S spark plugs' that describes some issues that have cropped up with one brand of fine-wire plugs. There are two parts to the story:

- There have been a number of aircraft where the insulators on those plugs have crumbled, at times causing pre-ignition events. The maker of the turbocharging system blames the spark plugs, the maker of the spark-plugs blames operator error. Not sure what to think.

- A number of people have had magneto problems. When they looked at the resistance of the plugs, they found variability beyond specification. Internal resistance of the spark plugs plays a role in deciding where the spark happens. I am not going to paraphrase and botch the physics on this, but I am satisfied that some of the people who posted there DO have the credentials to not hurt themselves with the pointy probes on a digital voltmeter.
 
If you have an account on beechtalk.com, in the engine section there is a 25 page thread 'TN Bonanzas with fine wire RHB32S spark plugs' that describes some issues that have cropped up with one brand of fine-wire plugs. There are two parts to the story:

- There have been a number of aircraft where the insulators on those plugs have crumbled, at times causing pre-ignition events. The maker of the turbocharging system blames the spark plugs, the maker of the spark-plugs blames operator error. Not sure what to think.

- A number of people have had magneto problems. When they looked at the resistance of the plugs, they found variability beyond specification. Internal resistance of the spark plugs plays a role in deciding where the spark happens. I am not going to paraphrase and botch the physics on this, but I am satisfied that some of the people who posted there DO have the credentials to not hurt themselves with the pointy probes on a digital voltmeter.

If they are Champions, I would suspect junk plugs. It got to the point where I'd put every plug in the tester from the box before putting it in an engine. The failure rate of Champions vs Auburns was eye opening to me.
 
Had a meeting with the partner. Seems he is desiring a bit more out of it than he has in it. Hmmmmm. He needs another calculator. Guess a little more talking and looking are in order.
 
Had a meeting with the partner. Seems he is desiring a bit more out of it than he has in it. Hmmmmm. He needs another calculator. Guess a little more talking and looking are in order.


Yeah, maybe for you too, the Twinkie is one of the few planes that has appreciated in value over the last few years, it and the BE-95. 20 years ago a BE 95 w/ turbos was $40k and BE 95-55 was $120k. Now a BE 95-55 is $40k and a turboed 95 is $120k. You might want to take a look at liquidating if you can't strike a deal.
 
Yeah, maybe for you too, the Twinkie is one of the few planes that has appreciated in value over the last few years, it and the BE-95. 20 years ago a BE 95 w/ turbos was $40k and BE 95-55 was $120k. Now a BE 95-55 is $40k and a turboed 95 is $120k. You might want to take a look at liquidating if you can't strike a deal.
No, I believe I am being more than fair. He owns 40 percent of the aicraft, based on monies we both have invested in the aircraft only. The other money we put into things include tax, insurance, and things to bring the aircraft home. The amount of money he has put into the aircraft so far is 42K, while I have 63.5K. We have 105.5K in it with all upgrades. He put 7.5K in when we upgraded the panel, I put the remaining 29K in. That's where the difference came from. All other maintenance, hangar, etc is paid for by our hourly use. I volunteered to give up to my maximum of 36K for his portion. He wanted 43K. He figured he should get the entire amount of what he added to the last upgrade, since he did not really want to participate in that upgrade in the first place, added to what his value was in the aircraft. What I proposed was trying to come up with a value and splitting it in the 60-40 split that we have in it. I even went so far as to allow the value to be placed at 90K, which is quite a bit higher than it seems to be worth. The prices of Twin Comanches are all over the board, and it is difficult to get a good comparison, but the general concensus seems to be at less than 80K, give or take a little. I do have an Aspen unit in it, but it has 1300 hours on the engines. Brand new autopilot and garmin 430W make it nice, but a lot of them have these. Paint and interior are ok, but nothing to write home about.

So, give me some ideas. Am I being selfish, generous, or neither? I am willing to entertain suggestions. I thought I could value the plane to what it would have been worth at the time of the upgrade, and then give him half of that as well as the 7500 he put into the upgrade.
 
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Old twins have appreciated in value? From when to when? Which few years are you talking about? What's the source of this information?

Where do you come up with this stuff?

Yeah, maybe for you too, the Twinkie is one of the few planes that has appreciated in value over the last few years, it and the BE-95. 20 years ago a BE 95 w/ turbos was $40k and BE 95-55 was $120k. Now a BE 95-55 is $40k and a turboed 95 is $120k. You might want to take a look at liquidating if you can't strike a deal.
 
No, I believe I am being more than fair. He owns 40 percent of the aicraft, based on monies we both have invested in the aircraft only. The other money we put into things include tax, insurance, and things to bring the aircraft home. The amount of money he has put into the aircraft so far is 42K, while I have 63.5K. We have 105.5K in it with all upgrades. All other maintenance, hangar, etc is paid for by our hourly use. I volunteered to give up to my maximum of 36K for his portion. He wanted 43K. He figured he should get the entire amount of what he added to the last upgrade, since he did not really want to participate in that upgrade in the first place added to what his value was in the aircraft.

Well, what'cha gonna do? What is the exit spelled into the partnership contract? Where did you arrive at $36k, 34% of $105.5k when he has a 40% stake? How did you arrive at a $90,000 valuation?
 
Old twins have appreciated in value? From when to when? Which few years are you talking about? What's the source of this information?

Where do you come up with this stuff?


2 specific models, Twinkie and Travel Air. Source of the information is what was being paid for them 20 years ago (which was pretty stable until 6 or so years ago) and what is being paid for them now in actual purchases I've made with my own money or helping others buy theirs.
 
OK, which year Twink and Travel Air? What year did this alleged appreciation start?
2 specific models, Twinkie and Travel Air. Source of the information is what was being paid for them 20 years ago (which was pretty stable until 6 or so years ago) and what is being paid for them now in actual purchases I've made with my own money or helping others buy theirs.
 
Well, what'cha gonna do? What is the exit spelled into the partnership contract? Where did you arrive at $36k, 34% of $105.5k when he has a 40% stake? How did you arrive at a $90,000 valuation?
Wow, follow me on this.

40% of 90K is 36K.

90K is a valuation taking into consideration the equipment installed, the condition of the aircraft, the prices of as many similar equipped Twinkies, the VREF from AOPA, etc..

We have 105.5K in it, 40% of which he paid in to it. 42K versus 63.5K.

No partnership contract, don't need one, we will work it out to a mutually agreeable understanding without resorting to legal means.
 
Wow, follow me on this.

40% of 90K is 36K.

90K is a valuation taking into consideration the equipment installed, the condition of the aircraft, the prices of as many similar equipped Twinkies, the VREF from AOPA, etc..

We have 105.5K in it, 40% of which he paid in to it. 42K versus 63.5K.

No partnership contract, don't need one, we will work it out to a mutually agreeable understanding without resorting to legal means.


Ok, I follow fine, it's your partner who isn't following you. Best thing at this point is to take Wayne's advice and get it appraised professionally. It's gotta be cheaper than $6k
 
OK, which year Twink and Travel Air? What year did this alleged appreciation start?

Well, Travel Airs I have been dealing with directly, year of plane only had an effect within the BE 95 market but not the trend. I just noticed the same tendencies in the Twinkie market. It happened the year Avgas broke $3gal when every other twin tanked.
 
The market for all GA airplanes peaked in 2007, and is true for both of the airplanes you referenced. Both have decreased in value since that time based on published price reference guides from several sources. The Twink has fared better than the Travel Air, with value decreases ~20% vs ~40% for the Travel Air.

Price trends for the current quarter are reported as stable for both aircraft. Reported prices are consistent with aircraft verified transactions over the past 24 months.



Well, Travel Airs I have been dealing with directly, year of plane only had an effect within the BE 95 market but not the trend. I just noticed the same tendencies in the Twinkie market. It happened the year Avgas broke $3gal when every other twin tanked.
 
The market for all GA airplanes peaked in 2007, and is true for both of the airplanes you referenced. Both have decreased in value since that time based on published price reference guides from several sources. The Twink has fared better than the Travel Air, with value decreases ~20% vs ~40% for the Travel Air.

Price trends for the current quarter are reported as stable for both aircraft. Reported prices are consistent with aircraft verified transactions over the past 24 months.
Sounds like you have some resource for historic aircraft values. Any chance this source is available to me? I wouldn't mind looking up historic values of the Twinkie for reference.
 
The stuff I use is all subscription based and proprietary, so if you use it you'll be getting a visit from Vito.

OTOH, I can probably pull together whatever you need, but since I'm a professional airplane guy with all that crap and credentials on the office wall (well it will be if I ever getting around to hanging it up there) it won't be free.

Price will be a burger of my choosing (but we can split the fries) when/if we're in the same town and you gotta buy a $10 box of Boy Scout popcorn from my grandkid next year if he tries to win the contest again. Otherwise no deal.

Let me know by PM what you need.


Sounds like you have some resource for historic aircraft values. Any chance this source is available to me? I wouldn't mind looking up historic values of the Twinkie for reference.
 
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I'd split the difference, but that's me. I doubt the deal you make with your partner is going to be overly swayed by valuations and facts. I wants what he has in it, which isn't unreasonable. Short of selling it and giving him his share, I think if you want to have a happy partner, you either deal with him to split it, and if that doesn't work, just give him what he wants.

Forgive me, we're talking about 7AMU. I know it's a lot of money, but in airplane terms not so much.
 
Finally had another meeting with the partner. We both came back with alternate offers. We pretty much met in the middle. I offered him a little more than he was looking for, so he was happy about that. Everything turned out very amicable. I now own Twinkie lock, stock, and double barrels. Now if I can just figure out how to pay for it all by myself.:yikes:
 
Now if I can just figure out how to pay for it all by myself.:yikes:

Just run one engine at a time :lol:, that's how my entire twin training went it seems.

Congratulations, glad you could work it out amicably. Who knows, maybe you find another partner.
 
Another partner would be a good idea. Consider non-equity partners (i.e. renters) if you can find people you'd trust with that.

I used to rent a Mooney M20F from a friend of mine. I was a non-equity partner, you could say. I paid my hourly rate plus a monthly fee that covered my share of the insurance, hangar, and base annual. Hourly rate covered fuel and wear-and-tear. This was a great arrangement for both sides. Only a few people had access to the plane, and we all knew eachother well. They got to make all the decisions with the plane as they saw fit without worrying about what I wanted, and I didn't have to worry about making those decisions.

The hard part, as with any partnership, is finding people you trust.
 
The stuff I use is all subscription based and proprietary, so if you use it you'll be getting a visit from Vito.

OTOH, I can probably pull together whatever you need, but since I'm a professional airplane guy with all that crap and credentials on the office wall (well it will be if I ever getting around to hanging it up there) it won't be free.

Price will be a burger of my choosing (but we can split the fries) when/if we're in the same town and you gotta buy a $10 box of Boy Scout popcorn from my grandkid next year if he tries to win the contest again. Otherwise no deal.

Let me know by PM what you need.

I'll buy a $10 box of popcorn.... My neighbor just sold me an $18 box and that was the cheapest thing I could find that he was selling to get him away from my door. To add insult to injury, the piece of paper I had said I saved $12 over buying it at the grocery store... :lol: Are the BSA an AOPA partners now?
 
It's even worse this year. The little one is now a Cub Scout so I'll be sending out popcorn rather than cashews at Christmas.

I'll buy a $10 box of popcorn.... My neighbor just sold me an $18 box and that was the cheapest thing I could find that he was selling to get him away from my door. To add insult to injury, the piece of paper I had said I saved $12 over buying it at the grocery store... :lol: Are the BSA an AOPA partners now?
 
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