Three Strikes - Your out....

MyassisDragon

Line Up and Wait
Joined
Dec 18, 2013
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585
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Michigan
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Display name:
Mr Fred
This is what my instructor always drilled into my head during IFR training and it sunk in, but not drilled in like it is now.

So I am going to humiliate and embarrass myself for the greater good of aspiring instrument pilots.

Here is the story:

Left last Friday to pickup my son from college 2 hour flight up north and 2 hour back. Light instrument conditions at both ends (900ft ceilings 6sm vis ect) tops at 3000 and the METAR called for improvement to MVFR in the after noon on my way home, no icing SIGMET. Good to go.

Well on my way home the conditions at my airport got worse but still not bad, talking to approach (20 miles away from my non towered destination) they had negative icing and 500ft ceilings and my airport was down to 400ft and 5sm vis)

At 7000ft cruise I had 42 deg F and my destination airport was reporting 38 deg...Are you starting to see the story build....So I figured I could just try the approach and If I missed then the 2+ hours of fuel could take me to a place with better conditions....

Well here is where I learned the truth about that strike system. After getting established on the ILS, I reached over to check my frequency then went to my chart (instead of going back to my AI) and found my self pointing in the wrong direction and not on the ILS anymore (it was extremely quick) So I queried ATC to vector me back onto the approach.

Not a problem all under control, hold at 2500 make a loop and get back established.... Well, the plane started getting sluggish and I had to increase throttle to hold altitude, and I removed all flaps after noticing ice building on the wings.

There I was running down the glide slope at dusk, engine at 2100rpm and 80kt to keep the tail from pulsing, realizing there was only one more strike in my game (although I counted about 5 since in reflection). Crap!! I just put my back in a corner and had no choice to land since at this point a go around was not going to happen.

Fortunately I broke through right at 400FT AGL (Ils min was 200ft) was a little left but close enough and landed the plane fast (80+ kt) since I had a 6000ft runway. When we got out there was about 1-1/2 to 2" inches of mixed ice on the leading edges and about 1" on the prop leading edges. and we were only in the clouds 10 minutes (or less) .

So now I have just changed my minimums increased my respect for Icing potential even though the PIREPS are negative an no sigmet exist.

On a positive side, my wife (copilot) said her confidence in me just increased since we made it work and were under enormous pressure to get it right. Had we not circled around but just had a normal approach she said it would have been uneventful and my confidence would have just grown for the next time we were in the same decision making position.

She also said we will never fly to those minimums, after a long day of travel in the winter and so close to dark again. Man do I have a good wife, she is not oblivious to what happened, and still hasn't changed her perspective of flying with me.

So there is my stupidity all over the internet now for others to learn from...

Strike 1 - Fatigue (we left at 9:00am returning to land at 5:pm with 5 hours of flying)

Strike 2 - Sun was going down along with temp (pireps were no longer valid) and there was a temperature inversion happening.

Strike 3 - Ceiling was 400ft AGL - not much room for error

Strike 4 - My instrument scan was not second nature since it was a few weeks since I had flown an approach.

Strike 5 - I messed up the first darn approach and ended up circling right at the top 500 ft of the clouds.

Should have called it at recognition of the second strike.... Just glad Im around play the game again, and much more humble now. :sad:
 
Worst icing I ever had was in an inversion on approach. I queried ATC prior to the approach for icing PIREPS and they advised there were none. Sure enough, I entered freezing rain. The saving grace was it was only for a few hundred feet before warming again.

Sounds like you kept your head in the game under pressure.
 
Funny, I seem to recall PIREPS for icing on Friday at various places around MI in the lower cruising altitudes. But, I wasn't specifically watching the west side of the state as my concerns were to the east.

Glad you're OK.
 
Good job, good lesson learned. I re-fly in my mind and self debrief every approach to see how I could have done it better and to weed out mistakes.

What airplane were you in?

I was in a C-414 and had unforecasted moderate ice on an approach into Farmington, NM one night. I kept the approach speed 30 knots higher than usual. After leveling off about a foot above the runway, the tail stalled and the plane just fell onto the pavement.
 
Great learning experience,hope you use what you learned wisely. Thanks for sharing.
 
This is what my instructor always drilled into my head during IFR training and it sunk in, but not drilled in like it is now.

So I am going to humiliate and embarrass myself for the greater good of aspiring instrument pilots.

Here is the story:

Left last Friday to pickup my son from college 2 hour flight up north and 2 hour back. Light instrument conditions at both ends (900ft ceilings 6sm vis ect) tops at 3000 and the METAR called for improvement to MVFR in the after noon on my way home, no icing SIGMET. Good to go.

Well on my way home the conditions at my airport got worse but still not bad, talking to approach (20 miles away from my non towered destination) they had negative icing and 500ft ceilings and my airport was down to 400ft and 5sm vis)

At 7000ft cruise I had 42 deg F and my destination airport was reporting 38 deg...Are you starting to see the story build....So I figured I could just try the approach and If I missed then the 2+ hours of fuel could take me to a place with better conditions....

Well here is where I learned the truth about that strike system. After getting established on the ILS, I reached over to check my frequency then went to my chart (instead of going back to my AI) and found my self pointing in the wrong direction and not on the ILS anymore (it was extremely quick) So I queried ATC to vector me back onto the approach.

Not a problem all under control, hold at 2500 make a loop and get back established.... Well, the plane started getting sluggish and I had to increase throttle to hold altitude, and I removed all flaps after noticing ice building on the wings.

There I was running down the glide slope at dusk, engine at 2100rpm and 80kt to keep the tail from pulsing, realizing there was only one more strike in my game (although I counted about 5 since in reflection). Crap!! I just put my back in a corner and had no choice to land since at this point a go around was not going to happen.

Fortunately I broke through right at 400FT AGL (Ils min was 200ft) was a little left but close enough and landed the plane fast (80+ kt) since I had a 6000ft runway. When we got out there was about 1-1/2 to 2" inches of mixed ice on the leading edges and about 1" on the prop leading edges. and we were only in the clouds 10 minutes (or less) .

So now I have just changed my minimums increased my respect for Icing potential even though the PIREPS are negative an no sigmet exist.

On a positive side, my wife (copilot) said her confidence in me just increased since we made it work and were under enormous pressure to get it right. Had we not circled around but just had a normal approach she said it would have been uneventful and my confidence would have just grown for the next time we were in the same decision making position.

She also said we will never fly to those minimums, after a long day of travel in the winter and so close to dark again. Man do I have a good wife, she is not oblivious to what happened, and still hasn't changed her perspective of flying with me.

So there is my stupidity all over the internet now for others to learn from...

Strike 1 - Fatigue (we left at 9:00am returning to land at 5:pm with 5 hours of flying)

Strike 2 - Sun was going down along with temp (pireps were no longer valid) and there was a temperature inversion happening.

Strike 3 - Ceiling was 400ft AGL - not much room for error

Strike 4 - My instrument scan was not second nature since it was a few weeks since I had flown an approach.

Strike 5 - I messed up the first darn approach and ended up circling right at the top 500 ft of the clouds.

Should have called it at recognition of the second strike.... Just glad Im around play the game again, and much more humble now. :sad:

Yep, six links to an accident chain, glad you didn't find one more. Fatigue is *****.
 
So, in the comfort of a warm home and most likely a drink or two, what would you have done on the final approach if you didn't break out at or above min's? Had you developed a plan for that possibility while in the hold or on the approach? Not yet rated, trying to learn.
 
If iced up like that, I am never going around. If I break out at 400, I break out at 400. If I break out at 50 I break out at 50. Same goes for if I'm flying an ILS with one engine caged. Screw the DH, the ILS is set to take me safely to the ground provided I keep the needles centered.
 
that's not an embarrassing story at all. at least you're not the idiot that flew into icing without having checked the weather.
 
I dunno, the only way I can't find three things not to my liking on any given flight is to not notice. Good job keeping the accident chain one link short.
 
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That is just it, perfect example of accident chain blowhardness. Anyone could make up a huge number of strikes on any flight. Just a matter of deciding this or that counts as a strike. At the same time possibly being totally unaware of real hazards. Mental masturbation for morbid creeps. Henning's karma theory makes more sense all the time.
 
That is just it, perfect example of accident chain blowhardness. Anyone could make up a huge number of strikes on any flight. Just a matter of deciding this or that counts as a strike. At the same time possibly being totally unaware of real hazards. Mental masturbation for morbid creeps. Henning's karma theory makes more sense all the time.


Any given flight has all the potential to build an accident chain. The key is to recognize the links as they appear so you keep them isolated and let let it forge into a six link chain, because pretty much if you have 6 factors come together unremediated, you are going to be in a serious bind. Karma is not there to rely on to not make mistakes, karma is there to cover your ass, or not, when you do make the inevitable mistakes.
 
Any given flight has all the potential to build an accident chain. The key is to recognize the links as they appear so you keep them isolated and let let it forge into a six link chain, because pretty much if you have 6 factors come together unremediated, you are going to be in a serious bind. Karma is not there to rely on to not make mistakes, karma is there to cover your ass, or not, when you do make the inevitable mistakes.

Climb n stink doesn't think a chain exists.

Im not on board with Karma either.

Fly safely...train often.
 
Fly smart, we've yet to stop proving it ain't possible to fly safely.
 
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