Three strikes and your out

I have a rule that if I find 3 things wrong with the aircraft on preflight, I won't fly it. In the above case, your distraction was only to the pilot. What do you do if you have 3 strikes while in the air? Do you continue the flight or RTB? Not practical in either case, eh?

I think if you have these issues and you corrected them the danger is then developing the get-there-itis mindset, and that's what hurts, not some magical 3 strikes.
 
I have a similar process/feeling that I use. Sometimes, regardless of activity I just have a sense of bad "Mojo" and will not do something I planned. Been this way for years. The one time I didn't listen to it, my wife was hit by a car while we were bike riding. Ironically, a car came close to us 20 minutes before she was hit and I thought that was the end of the bad "Mojo". How wrong I was...

Glad to see others like me!
 
A good rule. Everyone has days that, for no reason, things just seem to go wrong. I'd rather they went wrong on the ground.
 
Superstition and hog wash. There's no such thing as 'Bad Days', at least not in the sense that the universe is conspiring to get you. Reading these posts it obvious to me that a "three strikes rule" is nothing more than an attempt to be on guard for days when the world is out to get you and that is superstition and I don't buy it. You might as well throw monkey bones down and decide if you're going to fly based on that!

So three things went wrong? So what.? How can you even base that number? How do you even decide the size of the event that trips the trigger of something "going wrong? Does a red light count? A cop pulling you over? A cable slipping out of place on the basket? A dog darting into the street that you hit? What if you miss?

What does it even mean for something to "go wrong"? Again, it implies things happen by the design of some universal power. Your fill fan gas thingy was empty and you counted that as a strike. How is that? Do you suppose there was some mysterious force causing the gas can to be empty? Of course not. Its empty because nobody filled it.

I don't get into all this voodoo of counting strikes and trying to determine in the world is out to get me today.

And if counting strikes is just an attempt to discover if I'm fit to fly, well I know the answer to that. ..."yes". I'm fit to fly EVERY day. If I did count three strikes then I just tell myself to stop being dumb and that works every tine. Everyone of us is fit to fly everyday too. This thread is silly, sorry OP.
 
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I have a similar rule, albeit not set in stone - it's more "beware!" although sometimes it's "no-go"
If multiple things seem to be going wrong, I know that I have a hand in them and that I'm am clearly not at my sharpest ... time to either get my head in the game, change games, or take my ball and go home.
 
To be more precise, the thread isn't silly...I misspoke. The three strikes topic is silly.

Either you count strikes because:

A. You're on guard for universe out to get you (silly), or

B. You're on guard for YOU having a bad day.

If its YOU having the bad day then simply shape up. Forgetting to put gas in a can isn't a reason to scrub a flying day. Some cable slipping isn't either. And combined doesn't make either even any worse.

Just my opinion. YMMV
 
I'm not into paranormal or other psychic phenomenon but I do believe there is "more than meets the eye" so to speak. The "mojo" or "bad feeling" needs to be respected. For me personally, I’ve had more than one occasion where the "mojo" has been correct.
For example, not too many months back I was working in the garage when I just “knew” my house was going to be damaged. I went out to the back yard where my son was playing lacrosse with a couple other friends and told them to move out on the golf course; which they did. Not 30 minutes later..CRASH.. the ball went through a triple-pane window. It bounced off the goal 30-40 yards away on a ballistic trajectory for the house.
 
I don't really see the relevance of the flat tire or a motor out of gas. That sort of reasoning can carry back to spilling your drink at dinner the night before.

But I do have a simple, high-level rule of accepting 2 out of 3 of night, IMC, and inoperative equipment of any sort no matter how minor. I'll never fly with all 3 conditions. My wife was giving me a hard time last summer about delaying our start till next morning because the overhead vent was stuck open, but that's my rule.
 
I hope you bought your crew breakfast out somewhere at the very least after you packed up. I've done ground crew 3 times last year. If the pilot said "Sorry 3 things happened already today let's pack it up" you'd be hard pressed to have me come back out - especially if you launch early in the am!
 
saracelica said:
I hope you bought your crew breakfast out somewhere at the very least after you packed up. I've done ground crew 3 times last year. If the pilot said "Sorry 3 things happened already today let's pack it up" you'd be hard pressed to have me come back out - especially if you launch early in the am!
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+1

I can't imagine dragging my butt out early and setting up to be told by the pilot, "sorry, it's a scrub. If the gas can had been full an hour ago we would still go...but it wasn't and that's three so my hands are tied. It's a scrub." I'd never talk to the guy again let alone go back out.
 
Captain said:
+1

I can't imagine dragging my butt out early and setting up to be told by the pilot, "sorry, it's a scrub. If the gas can had been full an hour ago we would still go...but it wasn't and that's three so my hands are tied. It's a scrub." I'd never talk to the guy again let alone go back out.
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I think you made your point. No need to beat up on him 3X
 
Ummmmmm....but it was a REALLY good point and I'd like some sort of satisfaction of agreement or acknowledgement I'm right.


Okay, that's not happening. I'll drop it. Thanks Jay for some perspective.
 
JHW said:
I don't really see the relevance of the flat tire or a motor out of gas. That sort of reasoning can carry back to spilling your drink at dinner the night before.
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Agreed. But beyond the lack of relevance to the act of flying the aircraft, there is something to be said for the pilot's state of mind after experiencing multiple unexpected/unusual events leading up to the flight. And if most or all of the issues involved errors made by the pilot (e.g. improper cable connection, forgetting gas for the fan) I can see value in reassessing one's readiness for acting as PIC. But for me, unless the issues were in the "mind blowing" category I'd probably just attempt to be extra vigilant during the rest of my preflight and beyond, perhaps double checking important items etc.

But I do have a simple, high-level rule of accepting 2 out of 3 of night, IMC, and inoperative equipment of any sort no matter how minor. I'll never fly with all 3 conditions. My wife was giving me a hard time last summer about delaying our start till next morning because the overhead vent was stuck open, but that's my rule.
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I'd also attempt to relate the equipment issues from a "safety of flight" perspective whether or not a night IMC flight is involved (BTW IMO IMC is IMC regardless of the relative position of Sun and Earth unless icing is a concern). IOW, a stuck vent wouldn't give me pause unless the airflow would have an impact (too cold, too breezy) and I couldn't block it off somehow, but a malfunctioning GPS or lazy gyro by itself might be enough to postpone a trip.
 
gismo said:
...BTW IMO IMC is IMC regardless of the relative position of Sun and Earth unless icing is a concern..
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To each his own but there is a lot of evidence to the contrary. For starters, many (I'd say most) ops specs have either alternate approach minimums at night or prohibit some procedures at night, such as circling approaches.
 
Yeah, seen that three-strike idea before. I am not into that, myself. I am not superstitious like that because all I need do is knock on wood and all the bad karma goes away and you start fresh. Simple.

Regarding three bad things in preflight. LOL. Depending on what it is, I would think one thing is enough. Let's see, no gas and no oil. Good to go. Just pulling your chain. Jaybird.
 
For those that haven't "crewed" for LTA people it's not all that glorious except for the possibility that you are one of the chosen people to get to climb in the basket as well. But then at the end of the 30 min you work to put it all back together again.
 
alfadog said:
Yeah, seen that three-strike idea before. I am not into that, myself. I am not superstitious like that because all I need do is knock on wood and all the bad karma goes away and you start fresh. Simple.

Regarding three bad things in preflight. LOL. Depending on what it is, I would think one thing is enough. Let's see, no gas and no oil. Good to go. Just pulling your chain. Jaybird.
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No offense taken. But to clarify my line of thinking...

I'm talking about 3 things that give me reason to belive there are maintenance gremlins that I cannot see at preflight. For example: I'm not going to de-cowl during preflight, but if I see something in the engine inlet or oil door, I might get suspicious (I found a bird's nest during my training). I'm extra vigilant looking for clues of impending structural failure or hard landings.

Real example: I went to fly and saw the fuel was higher than our baseline quantity and now the Weight is unknown. It was a high DA day (Strike 1) and I planned to take my family on a lunch run.

I test flew a pattern to get a feel for the weight and performance and the engine gave a little stumble on short final (Strike 2)

On rollout, the nosegear shimmied (Strike 3).

I parked the plane and grounded it. Later it was said that I was overly-cautious and my credibility took a beating. Annual inspection a few weeks later turned up a need for significant work.

Although it went unsaid, I think I was vindicated.
 
I try to look at each issue and make an informed decision based on that. Of course issues can relate to each other and I give consideration to that. This applies to each and every process from weather planning to checking NOTAMs to preflight to getting the clearance, taxi, flight, abnormals, enroute, descent, approach, landing, taxi in, and post flight. Lather rinse repeat. 6 flights or more a day, 14 days a month.

There are tons of "issues" on every flight. From a SID that I can't fly so I need to pick a new departure, to weather at destination requiring an alternate. If something isn't working then there is an MEL. If its not there then write it up.

I just don't find a lot of use for adding up issues to fuel a "creepy feeling" level to enter into the decision making process. I'm really not trying to beat up on this issue. Instead I find it an interesting topic of discussion. Where does superstition end and self examination begins? Aviation is chalk full of charts that assign numbers and try to quantify risk through self examination and the like. I've never really bought into them for the reasons stated. Seems too voodoo for me. I like a scientific approach.
 
Becky said:
I would never fly with someone who expressed that belief/opinion.
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I should qualify that with:

I'm fit to fly every day I fly.

Of course I'm human and I can get sick or something. I don't fly those days. But the days I show up to fly I'm fit.
 
JHW said:
To each his own but there is a lot of evidence to the contrary. For starters, many (I'd say most) ops specs have either alternate approach minimums at night or prohibit some procedures at night, such as circling approaches.
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I didn't mean to imply that everything is as safe at night, but rather that in terms of equipment deficiencies, there's little difference between day IMC and night IMC, certainly less difference than between "light IFR" (e.g flying above a thin cloud deck with VFR conditions below it) and "hard IFR" (cruising in the soup with turbulence and precip leading to an approach at near mins).
 
Everyone needs to determine their own rules for when they fly. I'd disagree with Captain's theory that everyone is fit to fly every day. On a professional level you might be fit every day you get in a plane, but the NTSB likely would disagree.

I set no hard and fast rule, but I know my comfort level and pick accordingly. So for example, coming back from Belize I diverted to the next airport over rather than my home field. Reasons:

- Unknown snow condition on runway. Likely poor removal, and direct crosswind meant for likely snow drifting
- Ice in clouds, bases near mins. Didn't want to have to ice up, go missed, and then get iced up more for non-direct vectors to ILS
- 10 hours of flying that day, 9 the day before
- Direct crosswind on a likely icy runway

Yeah, good reasons to change the game plan.
 
I don't suppose everyone is fit to fly every day.

The point was this:

Three strikes has only 2 applications that I can see. Either you use the strikes to determine if the universe is conspiring to get you (voodoo I called it), or you use the strikes to asses yourself.

If its the latter self assessment that you're using the strikes to determine if you're fit to fly then I say your fit...even with three strikes. We all are, even if the gas can was empty or the cable slipped or you tripped on a chalk.

It is in that spirit I meant we are all fit to fly when dealing with three strikes. I know people get sick or are on medication or depressed or whatever and may not be fit to fly that day. Those examples are outside my point.
 
Captain said:
I don't suppose everyone is fit to fly every day.
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I was sick as a dog last week and made a 19 hour flight. It went fine for everyone except the poor guy next to me in seat 67F of the quantas 747.
 
Accidents are created from a chain of small decisions, incidents and to a certain extent, unseen factors. These are usually traced backwards from the accident, in great detail, in accident reports.

It's not voodoo to "see" a potential accident building. An observant pilot will see the small things, and decide whether they are adding up to something, or whether they are merely discrete factors that don't link up into an accident chain.

The human factor is always operating, though, so the potential to misread the signs is always there. I wouldn't want to miss real signs because I was creating unreal ones in my imagination.

Perhaps I should not have, but I did read Laurence Gonzales' book Deep Survival, with great interest.:redface:
 
Becky said:
Accidents are created from a chain of small decisions, incidents and to a certain extent, unseen factors. These are usually traced backwards from the accident, in great detail, in accident reports.

It's not voodoo to "see" a potential accident building. An observant pilot will see the small things, and decide whether they are adding up to something, or whether they are merely discrete factors that don't link up into an accident chain.

The human factor is always operating, though, so the potential to misread the signs is always there. I wouldn't want to miss real signs because I was creating unreal ones in my imagination.

Perhaps I should not have, but I did read Laurence Gonzales' book Deep Survival, with great interest.:redface:
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However, many who use the "three thing" rule do consider discrete factors that do not link to count. I.e. I had a hard time finding the key to my airplane, then a tire was low and I had to fill it, and there is something I don't quite like about the No 2 navcom. That's three, it is a no-go.
 
Often I feel pointing to the "links in the accident chain" is painting the bullseye around the arrow after it strikes.

Those link happen every flight. Things happen and pilots correct for them. We do it each and every flight. Some small, some big and it works out just about every time. But sometimes planes crash and we look back (arrow struck) and see what led up (paint a bullseye).

A pilots job is to prioritize and make corrections. We all aim for safe outcomes, that's what we do and we all put that as the highest priority (I hope). But take any link in any accident chain and look at it alone and I'll bet you'll find that that individual link is present on many many flights operating right now.

If we all stopped a flight at the sign of any possible link no flight would ever make it past the preflight.
 
Becky said:
I would never fly with someone who expressed that belief/opinion.
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Is ascending into the atmosphere in an LTA "flying"? I don't know of any bird species that just float up into the air. :)
 
DrMack said:
Is ascending into the atmosphere in an LTA "flying"? I don't know of any bird species that just float up into the air. :)
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The kind that makes a lot of noise and leaks a lot of oil. I think they call that a whirly bird.
 
Captain said:
If we all stopped a flight at the sign of any possible link no flight would ever make it past the preflight.
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I think the original point is the aviation equivalent of this:

I was remodeling my wife's bathroom recently and was removing the shower unit. The original builder (me) placed the fiberglass shower base over a bed of mortar, which took forever to break loose, and in the process I damaged the drywall next to the shower. When I bought the mortarboard for the new base I measured twice before heading to Home Depot. When I cut it and put it into place I was 1" short of having enough. I checked my supplies and I had everything, so I made the trip across town (again) to pick up another piece. Only when I went to screw the 1" strip to the subfloor I couldn't find the mortar screws. I looked everywhere, but to no avail. So back to Home Depot. Then I was cutting the 2x6s for the frame only to find that one had a crack I hadn't noticed. As I was carrying it down the stairs I marred a freshly-painted wall with it. At that point I decided if one more thing went wrong I was quitting for the day. Some days are just like that. Sure enough, I returned to Home Depot yet again only to reach in my pocket for my wallet - nope, I'd left it at home. That was it - I was done for the day.

A few days later the project was complete with no further complications. Call it voodoo if you want, but there are one or two days a year when, for no logical reason, things just don't go the way they should. A smart person recognizes them early and plants his sorry ass in his recliner to spend the day reading or watching tv.
 
Great thread. I have a less numerical rule, but a rule nonetheless. I subscribe to the idea that life teaches us lessons and keeps presenting them in different ways until we learn the lesson. Whether true or not, if I find a string of small impediments are popping up before me, I back off and try to determine whether these are simply challenges to overcome, or life-as-instructor. Sometimes that means turning the car around and going home.
 
Gerhardt said:
I think the original point is the aviation equivalent of this:

I was remodeling my wife's bathroom recently and was removing the shower unit. The original builder (me) placed the fiberglass shower base over a bed of mortar, which took forever to break loose, and in the process I damaged the drywall next to the shower. When I bought the mortarboard for the new base I measured twice before heading to Home Depot. When I cut it and put it into place I was 1" short of having enough. I checked my supplies and I had everything, so I made the trip across town (again) to pick up another piece. Only when I went to screw the 1" strip to the subfloor I couldn't find the mortar screws. I looked everywhere, but to no avail. So back to Home Depot. Then I was cutting the 2x6s for the frame only to find that one had a crack I hadn't noticed. As I was carrying it down the stairs I marred a freshly-painted wall with it. At that point I decided if one more thing went wrong I was quitting for the day. Some days are just like that. Sure enough, I returned to Home Depot yet again only to reach in my pocket for my wallet - nope, I'd left it at home. That was it - I was done for the day.

A few days later the project was complete with no further complications. Call it voodoo if you want, but there are one or two days a year when, for no logical reason, things just don't go the way they should. A smart person recognizes them early and plants his sorry ass in his recliner to spend the day reading or watching tv.
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I like it. I copy and pasted into an email to my Chief Pilot. I'll let you know how it goes!

:wink2:
 
Those of us who do this for a living cant bind ourself with arbitrary superstitions. My students would not be amused if they showed up on a beautiful flying day and I announced we weren't going due to 3 things that didn't go as planned. They pay me as a professional for my services, so I better act like a professional and provide that service just as long as it is safe and legal to do so.
 
My "two strikes" rule is:
If interrupted in preflight, I back up two steps and begin from there (to make sure nothing is missed).
If interrupted two times, or if I find something I missed, then preflight starts over.

In flight, if I discover a missed checklist item, back up two steps.
If two things go wrong in a flight, then reassess the flight, the plan, the weather, and the acceptable level of risk. On the ground, if necessary.

In police work, I had the rule of "the most conservative response". Things go south, things don't work like you planned sometimes.
The consequences of backing off and reassessing my plan, status, and assumptions are usually a little time, and a little inconvenience. I might even get called chicken or superstitious.
The consequences of NOT going to yellow alert could be my life.
 
Captain said:
Ummmmmm....but it was a REALLY good point and I'd like some sort of satisfaction of agreement or acknowledgement I'm right.


Okay, that's not happening. I'll drop it. Thanks Jay for some perspective.
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ok, you're right. Hell, maybe end your an out. I'd criticize the OP's grammar before I'd worry about 3 things going wrong -

What's 'going wrong?' I sometimes ride a bike to the airport - if I get a flat or miss a light on the bike, is that something going wrong?

Now, if there is a little voice inside telling you not to launch a particular flight, powered or balloon, then darn it - listen to it. You may not have the ability to have the luxury of canceling when operating commercially, but I will say there is no such thing as a perfect good airplane -

As for being a cop = things feel hinky . . . they get hinky.
 
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Becky said:
Accidents are created from a chain of small decisions, incidents and to a certain extent, unseen factors. These are usually traced backwards from the accident, in great detail, in accident reports.

It's not voodoo to "see" a potential accident building. An observant pilot will see the small things, and decide whether they are adding up to something, or whether they are merely discrete factors that don't link up into an accident chain.
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Generally an accident chain consists of multiple uncorrected errors. Depending on the level of detail you use almost any flight made by any pilot from student to airline greybeard will include multiple errors but no accident chain builds as long as the errors are recognized and dealt with.
 
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Capt-Dave said:
....Anybody else have a similar rule? I realize that sometime while flying for a living one might not have the option of just walking away from a take off. Fortunately 100% of my flying is for the enjoyment of myself and my passengers so for now I'm sticking to my three strikes rule.
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Dave,

I have the same three strike rule. My time frame starts from when I get up to preflight completion.

If other think it's crazy, who gives a rats a$$, it works for me. When I ignored the 'bad mojo' day or whatever you want to call it I spent three months in the hospital after taking two hours to cut me out of a vehicle. I don't ignore those simple things anymore.
 
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