The Next Big Thing In General Aviation

vdehart

vdehart

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vdehart
I want to know what you guys think the next big thing in general aviation will be? Suppose I had approximately $500,000 to invest in something general aviation related that would benefit the community as a whole. What would you put your money into that would provide a significant return on investment?

I'm curious to see what you folks think the next big thing is.
 
$500,000 to invest and you want to promote aviation? Assuming you want that money to grow, invest it in Google stock. I hear they have their own private hangar at SJO now, with which they're planning aerospace (and robotics) projects, so in some small way, this investment would go towards GA pursuits.

Anything that's more directly GA involved is sure to follow the GA rule: to end up with a large pile of money you have to start with a larger one.:rofl:
 
Maybe the dream of affordable Light Sports?

Something around $50k?

And yet, it seems the market has spoken, and most of the action seems to be at the high end.

Someone posted on another forum the sticker on a tricked out Carbon Cub.

Want to guess the price and/or empty weight?
 
FastEddieB said:
Maybe the dream of affordable Light Sports?

Something around $50k?

And yet, it seems the market has spoken, and most of the action seems to be at the high end.

Someone posted on another forum the sticker on a tricked out Carbon Cub.

Want to guess the price and/or empty weight?
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There's light sports that can be bought new for 50K I.e. the ones the regulations were written for. problem is nobody really wants a $50K LSA they want a $50K bonanza that doesn't require a medical.
 
Toy drones flown with live cameras(FPV.) That is the future of generally aviating for joe public. All the safety of RC and Sims with the 'real' view.
 
FastEddieB said:
Maybe the dream of affordable Light Sports?

Something around $50k?

And yet, it seems the market has spoken, and most of the action seems to be at the high end.

Someone posted on another forum the sticker on a tricked out Carbon Cub.

Want to guess the price and/or empty weight?
Click to expand...

The problem is LSA's were supposed to be light simple airplanes. Now the market demands and pushes full IFR glass cockpits with redundant everything two or three GPS's and on and on. Same with the Cub/Husky crowd. They go out with full IFR panels and don't forget you have to have the huge Tundra tires even though most never use them where they are really needed but they look cool. Don
 
yakdriver said:
The problem is LSA's were supposed to be light simple airplanes. Now the market demands and pushes full IFR glass cockpits with redundant everything two or three GPS's and on and on. Same with the Cub/Husky crowd. They go out with full IFR panels and don't forget you have to have the huge Tundra tires even though most never use them where they are really needed but they look cool. Don
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The light simple airplanes exist, no problem there. The things is no one wants them. Including the people that say they want them. How many threads have you seen where someone says they just want to fly around cheap, then reject the idea of a C-150? Brand new complete powered parachute backpack things are available for $7,000. No license required, if people 'just wanted to fly around' that'd work fine. The market says give us blinged out mini airliners and the 'could afford to fly something, but not the mini airliners people' would rather sit on the ground then fly anything less then a mini airliner. People are vain and full of @#$%
 
I have 8 airplanes that I can fly anytime. Lately I fly a Cessna 140 most of the time. 110mph on 4.5gph. Great fun for cheap and one just like it could be had for around $20,000. A friend has a low time never a trainer 1966 C-150 for sale for $22000. Mid time engine Garmin 250XL a solid 7-8 inside and out. Don
 
vdehart said:
significant return on investment?
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If you're looking for a "significant return on investment" on a half million dollars, I would think anything aviation related would be at the BOTTOM of the list of industries to invest in.

As much as I detest the tech/IT fields (because I've been working in them for so long, and burned out), if I were looking to invest $500k and expect a good ROI, I'd look to the tech field long before I'd look at aviation.
 
LoneAspen said:
If you're looking for a "significant return on investment" on a half million dollars, I would think anything aviation related would be at the BOTTOM of the list of industries to invest in.

As much as I detest the tech/IT fields (because I've been working in them for so long, and burned out), if I were looking to invest $500k and expect a good ROI, I'd look to the tech field long before I'd look at aviation.
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I think so many of us are used to the concept that money can't be made in general aviation. I think the decline in the GA pilot population, the sluggish rollout of the LSA category, and the ever rising cost of maintaining/flying an aircraft all give us this indication. But, I also think the industry is overdue for a Renaissance of sorts. Flying has just as much appeal among young people now as it did 30 to 40 years ago. I know plenty of people in their 20's to 30's who can afford flight training, but it would seem that nobody has ever introduced them to it.
 
cowman said:
That will plummet as soon as enough people have actually flown on that airline that potential customers will know what they're getting.
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He asked, I gave my opinion. If you have a different one, I'm all ears. So far, I've done pretty well here. See if you can beat my ROI.
 
cowman said:
That will plummet as soon as enough people have actually flown on that airline that potential customers will know what they're getting.
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I've consulted with a few airlines on marketing and am always amazed at the velocity they spend and borrow money. It's so capital intensive with relatively low margins that it's remarkable anyone makes a dime.

With that said, I've got a 100% return in under a year in Spirit. The unbelievable thing to me is how little debt they have. EPS talks on Wall Street above all else -- and one can pull off some pretty cool competitive earnings when there's no debt service in a debt-heavy industry.
 
cowman said:
That will plummet as soon as enough people have actually flown on that airline that potential customers will know what they're getting.
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I wouldn't be so sure. People are strange. The only thigh they care more about than bitching about bad service is saving money.
 
UAVs... Military, public and private use set to have explosive growth!
 
vdehart said:
This money can only be used to promote general aviation. It can't be used elsewhere.
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Well, if that's a hard-and-fast requirement, AND you do want to have a ROI (and not just throw the money away and not expect a return) then I'd have to say one of the two:

1. If UAVs and drones qualify as "general aviation", I'd invest in companies working on solutions to use drones in a commercial/civilian fashion. I'm not saying I personally like the idea of drones in a civilian capacity, but I do think there are probably companies out there who will make money in this field.

2. If they don't qualify as GA, I'm not sure where I'd put the money. I can't think of another aviation-related industry that I would put half a million into and expect to get a return. Only thing I can think of is emerging markets in China, perhaps publicly-traded companies developing GA solutions in China, or other markets that are trending upwards in GA activity.

Tough one. Good luck!
 
Fearless Tower said:
I wouldn't be so sure. People are strange. The only thigh they care more about than bitching about bad service is saving money.
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Spirit has the most customer complaints by far,was an article on this morning about the airline. Seems people are sick of getting hit with added fees for all the services,that should be standard.
 
Alright, here's what I would do with that in GA. Find a hungry designer. Copy as close as possible the Sonex, scale it up about 8-12%, fit a Rotax 912 on it, and do some flight test.

Intro it at OSH 15, and start taking orders.

A. You're gonna get sued by Sonex is you copy too closely, be slightly creative, maybe change the cowling, or canopy a bit.

B. Don't skimp on cockpit size.

C. Gotta be LSA, so keep it light, light, light.
 
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Art VanDelay said:
That's got to be without doubt THE crappiest airline on the face of the planet. I hope your recommendation was only in jest.
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WTF is with people? You don't want to invest - DON'T.

Find something that's doing better. Don't bust balls about an investment that's like a rocket ship with your lame azz 'ooohhhh, crappy airline....' stuff.

Amateurs.
 
Google has made significant progress with autonomous vehicles that can navigate a complex cityscape without a driver. Similar work is focused on autonomous drones that do not require an operator for control, but rather handle their own navigation and collision avoidance between departure and arrival points. As much as I personally hate the idea of pulling pilots out of the cockpit, autonomous aerial vehicles are likely to be the next wave in GA, particularly in dangerous environments. This could include fire fighting, disaster rescue and other challenging operating environments.
 
Jimmy cooper said:
Terrible articles regularly appear about spirit airlines. Is it cause they are so wonderful?
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As terrible as it sounds, Spirit seems to have figured out how much the traveling public is willing to put up with for the lowest fare. Seems like others have tried this before (Value Jet, etc) but so far Spirit seems to be doing better.
 
gismo said:
As terrible as it sounds, Spirit seems to have figured out how much the traveling public is willing to put up with for the lowest fare. Seems like others have tried this before (Value Jet, etc) but so far Spirit seems to be doing better.
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Value Jet was actually a good airline to fly, they got bought out/merged with AirTran after the crash in Florida, but their service was great just like AirTran's before the SWA buyout. :mad2:
 
gismo said:
Timing is everything.
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I will take that as a; 'no, I can't beat your ROI'.

Gotta say, I'm no stock pick genius or anything. I flew Spirit the first time in about Feb 13. The planes were PACKED to the gills, the website had a bazillion hits, so I looked at their LTD(another mentioned that) and took a position on them in early Mar last year. I got more last Sept and right now things are plenty fine. Maybe it'll crash, maybe it won't. I have a stop loss sell order for $45. We hit it early Feb this year, and I took a chance and told them to hold. I got lucky, and no shame in saying so.
 
vdehart said:
What would you put your money into that would provide a significant return on investment?
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General Aviation and significant return on investment I think it's contradiction in terms. But if you treat the money as charity to promote the general aviation - I am sure some good causes could be found. Development of new, better power plants?
 
Flyhound said:
Google has made significant progress with autonomous vehicles that can navigate a complex cityscape without a driver. Similar work is focused on autonomous drones that do not require an operator for control, but rather handle their own navigation and collision avoidance between departure and arrival points. As much as I personally hate the idea of pulling pilots out of the cockpit, autonomous aerial vehicles are likely to be the next wave in GA, particularly in dangerous environments. This could include fire fighting, disaster rescue and other challenging operating environments.
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I could totally see Google snatching up Synergy if/when he makes his first flight and comes even close to the performance claims.
 
Delta should be doing better, they got rid of their only real competitor in Atlanta, their biggest hub! With Airtran going away, they can raise fares as much as they want! :mad2::mad2:

RotorAndWing said:
Yea, let's invest in Delta............:rolleyes2:

:rofl:
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Good call.

C182P said:
$500,000 to invest and you want to promote aviation? Assuming you want that money to grow, invest it in Google stock. I hear they have their own private hangar at SJO now, with which they're planning aerospace (and robotics) projects, so in some small way, this investment would go towards GA pursuits.

Anything that's more directly GA involved is sure to follow the GA rule: to end up with a large pile of money you have to start with a larger one.:rofl:
Click to expand...
 
Who is making IFR LSAs these days?
 
I believe you can fly any LSAs on an IFR flight plan under VFR conditions if you have the appropriate rating. I don't believe any LSA is certified for flight into IMC. Certainly the ASTM committee responsible for the LSA consensus standards voted to ban LSA flight into IMC.
 
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