The machines are coming for our jobs

I have what I call my Steiney sense, I am on high alert for anything that looks wrong. Most riders have this if they ride for long, only way to stay alive on the street. I usually see what's coming at me long before it becomes an acute danger and take evasive action. Used to be I'd do this a few time a year, now it's a few time a week during riding season. I am a bit worried, I'm starting to get surprised by folks imperiling me that I didn't see coming. Bound to happen with the rise of idiot driving. Nothing I can't handle, but a worry nonetheless. Like I said, phones, lots of them.


Agreed. There are also riding techniques such as lane choice and position, route selection, and so forth that reduce risk and avoid bad situations before they pop up. For example, left-turning vehicles are a risk, so when possible on a 4-lane road I will time things so I go through an intersection in the right lane next to a car in the left lane, guarding me from left-turners.
 
If your logic were correct, it would inevitably lead to the conclusion that in 40 or 50 years no one will have a job and everything will be done by AI and automation. I don't know who's going to buy those products manufactured in fully automated factories and delivered by autonomous vehicles, since everyone will be out of work.

Yes. That's exactly the discussion we should be having. How will goods, from necessary food at one end of the spectrum to luxury super yachts at the other end, be distributed when human labor is no longer necessary, or even useful? Cause whether it's 50 years from now or 200 years from now is irrelevant. Either one is a blink of the eye compared to the 200,000 years humans have existed. And either we or our great grandkids are gonna be around to see it.
 
Exactly one reason why I usually didn't wait in line with car traffic when I used to bike commute.

It was a 4 way stop on a 2 lane road outside the city. What was I supposed to do? Off-road a street-bike through a corn field and make my own road?
 
It was a 4 way stop on a 2 lane road outside the city. What was I supposed to do? Off-road a street-bike through a corn field and make my own road?
I was trying to empathize with you (not judge your actions)

It's emblematic of the choices non-car users have to make while using the public infrastructure in this country. They tell us that we have to act like cars, but we're damned if we do, and damned if we don't.
 
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In an ideal world, machines would take over all the jobs, and humanity would enjoy fulfilling lives in a post-scarcity world.

However, humanity sucks, so I suspect that what will really happen is that automation continues to funnel more and more wealth to the billionaire few while the remainder of the population struggle for scraps.
 
Think about the world of Star Trek, especially STNG, where nobody really had to work...
 
In an ideal world, machines would take over all the jobs, and humanity would enjoy fulfilling lives in a post-scarcity world.
It might seem ideal, but I can't imagine a more dystopian world.
Computers are logic driven. What happens when logical computers and machines try to manage a world full of illogical people that act on emotion and greed.
I'm afraid I can't let you do that Dave
 
Yes it is. We like to tout that we have more autonomous miles than Tesla. I've never fact checked it but if my overlords says it's true, it must be.

I guess I should have been more clear about my example. I am referring to the city doing road repairs, or some construction crew building a house or commercial development. I'm sure there is plenty of automation where you have mines/quarries where the trucks can follow a predictable/programmed path. When a construction project is being done that is dynamic, it's pretty tough to make good use of fully-automated machinery. It would be more akin to having a Roomba running into every person/area of the construction site trying to take a load of dirt from one side to the other.
 
In an ideal world, machines would take over all the jobs, and humanity would enjoy fulfilling lives in a post-scarcity world.

However, humanity sucks, so I suspect that what will really happen is that automation continues to funnel more and more wealth to the billionaire few while the remainder of the population struggle for scraps.
Caves of Steel is an interesting Asimov book with similar themes. Not saying it’s at all realistic or predictive, just an interesting book that tackles similar ideas.
 
Changed yours just a bit. Where I live (Winter Springs/Oviedo, northeast of Orlando) there are no non-luxury houses or apartments to be found. They are building tons of apartments but they are all luxury and start around $2,000 per month. City councils won't approve zoning for small, cheap houses (NIMBY) and developers won't build them because they can make more money off bigger. There's no shortage of demand, but we have people who work in hospitality near Disney World who are driving from Ocala to get affordable housing. That's well over an hour...


I lived in Winter Springs (the Ranchlands) for 10 years or so. We moved out to Polk county because we couldn't afford acreage in Seminole and my wife wanted horses. That move gave me a one-way commute of about 1.5 hours. It's not unusual to accept a long drive to afford the house one wants. (And those people driving to Disney from Ocala might want to take a look or two in Polk county.)

But that's rather beside the point, which was that a median-income person (~$60k per the census data I posted) can probably afford housing. There will always be a bottom tier of the economic spectrum that can't afford a house on their own, so they end up with a roommate or renting an apartment or living in a mobile home or some other alternative.

And by and large, most people don't remain in that bottom tier for the rest of their lives. Most people find ways to learn, grow, advance, and get a progression of better and better jobs. Sure, there are those who don't, but the ones who can't are fairly uncommon. (And I have a Downs daughter in that "can't" category, so don't think I'm unsympathetic.)

But even that isn't the larger point, which is that AI and automation aren't going to destroy the world. Technology advancements always seem to come with these world-ending proclamations of impending doom which don't come to pass.

And I doubt my present job of "retiree" can be done by a robot as well as I can do it.... :)
 
I was trying to empathize with you (not judge your actions)

It's emblematic of the choices non-car users have to make while using the public infrastructure in this country. They tell us that we have to act like cars, but we're damned if we do, and damned if we don't.
I saw a couple of bicyclists ignoring a stop sign in front of me after I entered the intersection in the crossing direction the other day. I congratulated myself for not giving them the death penalty for their transgression.
 
I saw a couple of bicyclists ignoring a stop sign in front of me after I entered the intersection in the crossing direction the other day. I congratulated myself for not giving them the death penalty for their transgression.


You should be flogged for your disregard for justice.
 
when is an activity work and when is it a hobby?
They're not mutually exclusive. Flying is my hobby, but when the winds are very gusty, I've noticed that it's a lot of work. It's still my hobby at those times.
 
Agreed. There are also riding techniques such as lane choice and position, route selection, and so forth that reduce risk and avoid bad situations before they pop up. For example, left-turning vehicles are a risk, so when possible on a 4-lane road I will time things so I go through an intersection in the right lane next to a car in the left lane, guarding me from left-turners.

I do things like this when I'm driving my truck! People ask me if learning to fly made me a better driver, and generally I think no. But learning to ride a motorcycle absolutely has made me a more observant driver.
 
I saw a couple of bicyclists ignoring a stop sign in front of me after I entered the intersection in the crossing direction the other day. I congratulated myself for not giving them the death penalty for their transgression.
I always wonder why the rules say a bicycle should use the roadway instead of sidewalks.
I could possibly understand it if the bicycle could keep up with posted speed limits, but it seems to me that a collision between a bicycle and a car would be far more catastrophic than a crash between a bicycle and a pedestrian. The curvy two lane road in front of my house has a 35 mph speed limit with very few places one can pass. It is common to see a bicycle going about 10 mph down the middle of the road with a parade of cars behind them itching to pass. There also happens to be a nice wide sidewalk on the side of the road where they could safely use their bicycles without causing traffic hazards.
 
I always wonder why the rules say a bicycle should use the roadway instead of sidewalks.
Around here, bicyclists are allowed to use either, except riding on the sidewalk is not allowed in a business district.

I could possibly understand it if the bicycle could keep up with posted speed limits, but it seems to me that a collision between a bicycle and a car would be far more catastrophic than a crash between a bicycle and a pedestrian. The curvy two lane road in front of my house has a 35 mph speed limit with very few places one can pass. It is common to see a bicycle going about 10 mph down the middle of the road with a parade of cars behind them itching to pass. There also happens to be a nice wide sidewalk on the side of the road where they could safely use their bicycles without causing traffic hazards.

I think bicyclists here are required to keep to the right except to make a left turn, but I haven't looked this up lately.
 
I always wonder why the rules say a bicycle should use the roadway instead of sidewalks.
I could possibly understand it if the bicycle could keep up with posted speed limits, but it seems to me that a collision between a bicycle and a car would be far more catastrophic than a crash between a bicycle and a pedestrian. The curvy two lane road in front of my house has a 35 mph speed limit with very few places one can pass. It is common to see a bicycle going about 10 mph down the middle of the road with a parade of cars behind them itching to pass. There also happens to be a nice wide sidewalk on the side of the road where they could safely use their bicycles without causing traffic hazards.
Most collisions happen at intersections, which can't be avoided even when using sidewalks.
 
I think bicyclists here are required to keep to the right except to make a left turn, but I haven't looked this up lately.
It usually depends on the width of the road, in combination to other local laws
 
Around here a number of roads have been marked with sharrows. Unfortunately the idiots on bicycles can't quite grasp the difference between sharing the road and hogging the road.
 
Around here a number of roads have been marked with sharrows. Unfortunately the idiots on bicycles can't quite grasp the difference between sharing the road and hogging the road.
Often a defensive trait, as idiots in cars can’t quite grasp legal separation.
 
Most collisions happen at intersections, which can't be avoided even when using sidewalks.
That might be where the collisions are, but they are annoying the entire length of the road. I wouldn't mind too much if they could come close to keeping up with the speed limit, and didn't ride in the middle of the road so that you can't pass.
And they wouldn't have so many intersection collisions if they would look and obey traffic signals and signs, but they act like signs don't apply to them. I have had to slam on my breaks several times as bicycles breeze through intersections without stopping or looking. And if I hit one, I suspect I am the one that would be blamed, but at least not dead.

The main road I am talking about is narrow and has no shoulder or bike lane, but has a long sidewalk with no intersections for about 5 miles because the sidewalk is along the side of a river. But they still ride in the middle of the road.
 
And they would have so many intersection collisions if they would look and obey traffic signals and signs, but they act like signs don't apply to them. I have had to slam on my breaks several times as bicycles breeze through intersections without stopping or looking. And if I hit one, I suspect I am the one that would be blamed, but at least not dead.
My father was killed by a driver making an unprotected left turn while my father was going straight through a green. And a close friend had to have neck vertebrae put back together after being hit by someone running a red light. But sorry to hear about your experience with some bicyclists thinking that signs don't apply to them.
 
In *SOME* situations it can be safer for the cyclist to proceed through an intersection at moderate speed instead of stopping and starting again, moving slowly and spending more time exposed in the intersection. But only when the timing is appropriate, unfortunately there are a lot of idiot riders who seem to think the timing is always appropriate.
 
My father was killed by a driver making an unprotected left turn while my father was going straight through a green. And a close friend had to have neck vertebrae put back together after being hit by someone running a red light. But sorry to hear about your experience with some bicyclists thinking that signs don't apply to them.
I"m truly sorry to hear about your Father and your good friend. But it does support my claim that collisions between bicycles and cars are more catastrophic than collisions between bicycles and pedestrians. They are going to have to cross those intersections regardless. I just think it would make it safer to separate cars from more those more vulnerable than them as much as possible.

We all know that there are a lot of idiot drivers out there and when you are on a bicycle, it is more to your own benefit to be extra defensive.
 
Maybe we can just have automated bicyclists instead.
Probably would work as well as the self-driving cars I see, where the person behind the steering wheel is staring at a screen while the car is in motion. The best ones were last Thursday during a snow storm.
 
WSJ ran a good article on this subject in their Review section today.

BL: the rate of innovation in the tech space hasn’t been matched in pretty much any other sector, so ‘X’ industry is ripe for disruption is VC-speak for shut up and take my money.

Oh yeah, Moore’s Law is really Moore’s theory; processing speed has improved only 4% annually since 2015. Takes more than 18-24 months to double at that rate.

Likely paywall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-progress-is-slowing-down-b7fcaee0
 
So if processing speed only increases 4% annually, yet software companies are continuing to make software 50% slower per year, at what point will it take a full 8 hour day to start a computer running a Microsoft OS?

If I were teaching I think I'd make that a final exam question.
 
So if processing speed only increases 4% annually, yet software companies are continuing to make software 50% slower per year, at what point will it take a full 8 hour day to start a computer running a Microsoft OS?

If I were teaching I think I'd make that a final exam question.


Not enough information. Is the employee working from home?
 
Oh yeah, Moore’s Law is really Moore’s theory; processing speed has improved only 4% annually since 2015. Takes more than 18-24 months to double at that rate.
To be honest, low to mid tier computers have more than enough power for over 80% of us. Seems like reducing power usage is getting more priority these days
 
I lived in Winter Springs (the Ranchlands) for 10 years or so. We moved out to Polk county because we couldn't afford acreage in Seminole and my wife wanted horses. That move gave me a one-way commute of about 1.5 hours. It's not unusual to accept a long drive to afford the house one wants. (And those people driving to Disney from Ocala might want to take a look or two in Polk county.)

But that's rather beside the point, which was that a median-income person (~$60k per the census data I posted) can probably afford housing. There will always be a bottom tier of the economic spectrum that can't afford a house on their own, so they end up with a roommate or renting an apartment or living in a mobile home or some other alternative.

And by and large, most people don't remain in that bottom tier for the rest of their lives. Most people find ways to learn, grow, advance, and get a progression of better and better jobs. Sure, there are those who don't, but the ones who can't are fairly uncommon. (And I have a Downs daughter in that "can't" category, so don't think I'm unsympathetic.)

But even that isn't the larger point, which is that AI and automation aren't going to destroy the world. Technology advancements always seem to come with these world-ending proclamations of impending doom which don't come to pass.

And I doubt my present job of "retiree" can be done by a robot as well as I can do it.... :)
I appreciate your point-of-view and perspective. The one thing I note is that automation hasn't ever had the potential to be so disruptive as it has now. Self-driving electric vehicles has the potential to nearly eliminate the need for truck, bus, and taxi drivers. The gas station and auto parts stores will be drastically changed or disappear. On the other hand, I'll consider steam engines took decades to displace sailing ships so all those sailors had time to retire or find other work, and the switchover to electric self-driving vehicles won't happen overnight either allowing for the disruption to be absorbed into society.

Edit: add oil change businesses and service centers to the places needing reduced staffing when EVs become widespread.
 
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