The Death of GA? Or, a New Birth Opportunity?

cirrusmx said:
try king schools. ground school in twenty cds for approx 300 dollars. pretty much the cheapest aspect of flying.

books and learning resources are not killing ga. AIRPLANE AND GAS COSTS ARE!!!
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You didn't even bother reading so you completely missed what's already been asked and answered. CBT study models have already been discussed. The question was the proper use and viability of interactive Web based technologies in real-time, to simulate an instructor based class-room type environment for the study of ground school related subject matter.

To your two (2) points:

1) Airplane costs are a direct function of Part 23.

2) Fuel costs are a direct function of launching unnecessary wars in oil producing nations for the sole purpose of distributing PSA contracts to multi-national oil related conglomerates and the exchange related profiteering taking the form of so-called 'free market forces' driving the price of crude higher across the world's oil markets - citing "fear and supply" as the reason, coupled to pure OPEC greed and teir one price manipulation through the asymmetric manipulation of supply. These things are not in GA's domain of control.

However, how GA responds to these things, are fully in GA's control. That's what this tread is about - the response to crisis. Or, maybe you missed the fact that GA is now in a crisis. Or, maybe you don't agree that GA is in a crisis. Either way, I would love to hear your thesis resolve for how GA should move forward into the future.

Let me know when would be a good time to start discussing this crisis at depth - as if it really was a crisis worth discussing.

I happen to think that GA is worth saving. Do you?
 
infotango said:
I wish you luck in your mission, and I really wish you could explain what you are trying to do in less than twenty works so my simple brain could process it all.
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How about this: Your industry is on life support and your community is in danger of becoming extinct unless you change your attitude, stop preaching to the choir about "growing from within" and start opening up to the world around you for help.

Are you familiar with the Frog and the pot of slowing boiling water, where the temperature slowing rises from luke warm to a raging pot of scalding hot vapor? The Frog gets cooked without knowing he's being cooked.

You (GA) are the Frog and the circumstances of life represnts the water. Was that simplified and Twitterized enough for you?

You are going to have to leave the pot of water and venture out into new territory and new ways of outreach. It's a brave new world. Embrace it.
----------------------------------------

I think I'm done here, folks. The Twitter level of conversation that seems to be required here, is not sufficient to cover this topic appropriately and I can see that the depth of input required to start a foundation for preserving GA, won't be found online in forums such as this.

It has been interesting to say the least and I wish the best to all. Good luck in your endeavors.
 
To the OP please do not take the rank and file POA members chastising and criticism too personally, but not a week goes by that someone gets on this board and post something that basically says "My name is Joe Smith and although I am not a pilot, and have no real piloting experience except for a flight with ... I think I know what I can do to fix some part of piloting, or can make a video that you should find amusing, or something else." What then happens is the OP gets thoroughly dumped upon by a number of members, support somewhat by some others, and laughed at by all, while the OP tries unsucessfully to prove his point, convert the non-believers, and progressively gets more and more frustrated, defensive, and angry, until the OP realizes that being the subject of the weekly joke is no fun, and slinks off into the dark recesses of the forum.

I think you mean well, and have good intentions at heart, but we are a finicky bunch, and a very self sufficient bunch, and quite difficult to impress or to fool for that matter.

The bottom line is this forum is populated by a large number of highly intelligent, and insightful people who live, drink, and breathe general aviation, and would like nothing better than to make general aviation more popular, cheaper, easier, more available, and more appreciated by the general public, and the government. The bottom line is what you are proposing(and most of us are finding it difficult to interpret your proposal) has probably either been thought of and tried and failed, or is being done, by people who have a lot more experience than you or your previous comrades of weeks gone past.

Unfortunately, there is no simple answer as to why General Aviation is shrinking(I think the term dying is a little harsh at best, and quite inaccurate as well), and there is not going to be a simple solution either. It is going to take a combination of luck, money, wit, and plain old american ingenuity to reverse the trend, and until that happens the rest of will just keep on flying.

Just my 2 cents.

Doug
 
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AccessFlight said:
How about this: Your industry is on life support and your community is in danger of becoming extinct unless you change your attitude, stop preaching to the choir about "growing from within" and start opening up to the world around you for help.

Are you familiar with the Frog and the pot of slowing boiling water, where the temperature slowing rises from luke warm to a raging pot of scalding hot vapor? The Frog gets cooked without knowing he's being cooked.

You (GA) are the Frog and the circumstances of life represnts the water. Was that simplified and Twitterized enough for you?

You are going to have to leave the pot of water and venture out into new territory and new ways of outreach. It's a brave new world. Embrace it.
----------------------------------------

I think I'm done here, folks. The Twitter level of conversation that seems to be required here, is not sufficient to cover this topic appropriately and I can see that the depth of input required to start a foundation for preserving GA, won't be found online in forums such as this.

It has been interesting to say the least and I wish the best to all. Good luck in your endeavors.
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No. You still failed to answer my question. What are you proposing?

How hard is that?

Didn't you learn in business school that taught you all those fancy words about the elevator sales pitch?

I don't need anecdotes or fancy words like "changing the paradigm". I'm really trying to understand what you want to do, because I'm interested.
You seem incapable of spelling out your ideas without resorting to meaningless business speak words, or idiotic anecdotes, and then you have the gall to insult me.

I think I know the truth. You don't really have any ideas. You just have big words, and stupid stories.

So long.
 
If you are a fund manager with triple diploma-master-phd from the top schools why dont you just get your PPL at least. Maybe throw some instruments in. Cost shouldnt be an issue. Once you start flying you will realize first hand as a pilot what is going on. Or you can buy into an aviation business lead by example to change what you think is wrong in GA. What i personally see is that the spam cans realm of GA is dwindling, but comercial and business aviation are doing ok, that is still GA. Unfortunately small piston airplanes have almost no practical usefulness. Its more of a hobby than a tool.
 
Everskyward said:
Glad I am not the only one. :eek:

I think we need some specifics here.
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I'm of the mind he's addressing the wrong audience.

His aims and ideals are noble, but those of us on this board are not in a position to enact the changes he is proposing.

Yes, we are involved and interested to see these changes, but we do not have the power to take his propositions and make it happen.

This might be the frustration many are expressing. The group is saying, "All well and good, but we've seen/heard it before and already know that we aren't the ones that make such a change happen."

The level that the OP needs to be talking to and working with is the larger associations and networks that have the resources and connections to first consider his proposals and then take appropriate actions.


Continuing on with the audience that is this board and specific forum is like teach Rusty how to sing. It's futile, and just annoys Rusty. (friendly poke at Rusty)
 
you have allegedly been wanting to start a hobby from age 8 to 45 but haven't gotten around to it, and instead want to write a dissertation about how the whole industry needs to change ?

Here's an easier idea. If you want to learn to golf, then go rent or buy some clubs and go to the golf course. If you want to learn to fish, get a rod & reel and go to the lake. If you want to learn to fly, go to the airport and do it. People who actually want to fly are easy to spot. You see them flying.
 
So, three technical degrees gives you understanding of a field you have zero experience in?

I have three technical degrees as well; that's irrelevant. It's a myth that you have to be a genius to go to any of the three schools you mentioned; believe me, I've met plenty of idiots at Cal. Your posts have no actual information content. They say tautologies and spout buzzwords. Be specific. What EXACTLY are you proposing? Use a bullet list, with few bullets. Limit yourself to 100 words. If you can't express it like that, you have ZERO chance of success.

If you really manage a fund like you say, you should be skilled in the executive summary. I think you're blowing smoke, but let's see what you REALLY have.
 
GA is pretty much doomed unless the AOPA throws it's weight at the FAA. Which they have been, and are going to even moreso in the coming year(s)..
 
gcd89 said:
GA is pretty much doomed unless the AOPA throws it's weight at the FAA. Which they have been, and are going to even moreso in the coming year(s)..
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AOPA:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
 
We can bring GA back from grave with 3 easy pillars....

1. Exclude GA from litigation.

2. Introduce aviation fuel that costs $1 per gallon.

3. Provide the general population with $20K per year of disposible income.

:idea: It's a piece of cake.
 
two small things would give aviation a nice vaccination which will help in the short term but no guarantee of future success.

Mogas in most airports nationwide and do away with 3rd class medicals.

If you have a drivers license then you should be able to fly.

Those two things cost and physicals of aging pilot population would help stem the tide.

I read where 80% of current airplane fleet can fly on mogas or 94 gas currently being played with. So why are we all forced to pay for 100 LL?

If mo gas is $3.50 a gallon rather than $6.50 per gallon yes I can see a resurgence in those of us already in aviation flying more creating more excitement spending money again on more flying, fly ins and such and bringing new people into aviation.

However the real reason aviation is on a long multi decade decline is because the average middle class of america is on that same trajectory.

I think just as many people today would love to fly, own a small aircraft as anytime before in our history if they had the disposable incomes of the 60's and 70's. But you need ability to pay, time to play for airplane growth.

So all these other ideas are but band-aids on the wound.
 
Ark235B said:
We can bring GA back from grave with 3 easy pillars....

1. Exclude GA from litigation.

2. Introduce aviation fuel that costs $1 per gallon.

3. Provide the general population with $20K per year of disposible income.

:idea: It's a piece of cake.
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You are correct on 2 and 3 but litigation has nothing to do with nothing. that is all hot air blow by from the political wars.
 
Tony_Scarpelli said:
You are correct on 2 and 3 but litigation has nothing to do with nothing. that is all hot air blow by from the political wars.
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Last time I saw a number, Cessna built in about 80K worth of litigation insurance into the price of every new 172 sold.
 
bartmc said:
Last time I saw a number, Cessna built in about 80K worth of litigation insurance into the price of every new 172 sold.
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:yeahthat:

New aircraft prices are so outrageous because they've built in the cost of insurance for pretty much every single part up the supply chain.

The cost of fuel not withstanding, I'd say the insurance industry (commercial-side, not necessarily the insurance on our planes) is one of the major contributing factors.
 
Just catching up here...

The reality is, our society is consumer based now. It's not about making or doing, it's about consuming for the vast majority of people. It's way down deep in their thinking and behavior.

For every 100,000 people that come to an airshow to consume the entertainment, there's maybe 1 who will dig in, start flying, and change their lifestyle, spending habits, job, whatever they have to do, to go flying.

No amount of national campaigning can compete with the crowd that wants to sit at home and watch Jersey Shore or HoneyBooBoo or whatever the hell that is, on cable, for $150/month for the "Premium" package, more than they want to go do something interesting or worse, work hard to build a skill.

And aviation does require you build skills or you die.

You can put cool ads on every channel of TV about flying GA aircraft and they'll just flip the channel.
 
Having recently sold my Cherokee, I've been actively searching for a HP or HP/complex to replace it. Thought I wanted a Comanche, but the latest tail AD took the bloom off that rose.

Here's my take on the HP Single market:

1. Lotta just plain junk out there. With the cost of certified parts and avionics, not economic to bring back. Worth more as beer cans. I'm surprised FBO's allow some of this junk on the ramp. Flat tires, faded paint, control surfaces hanging off. Bad image for newcomers, that's for sure.

2. The aircraft with "good bones", well maintained airframes but with either time or calendar runouts are not priced accordingly. In time, they will move to category 1.

3. Good airframes and engines, but dated or obsolete avionics. Not economic to upgrade the avionics because of the stranglehold of certification. Now if you could slap in a Dynon....

4. Nice airplanes with modern equipment aren't for sale in a depressed market. Owners know what they have, and are flying them. Sometimes there's an estate sale. The occasional bird in this category that comes up for sale is snapped up, generally locally.

5. The bright spot seems to be E/AB. Avionics are affordable, and generally build quality is improving because the kit manufacturers are responsive to the builders. But if you want a 4 place traveling machine, choices are limited. Then there's the difficulty of assessing the build quality of a glass bird. Not impossible, but a mental hurdle for the neophyte to the class.

7. Renting is expensive, not just for the bird hourly, which isn't that bad, but with daily minimums etc., it's not an optimal choice for long weekends and x/c, which is the reason I learned to fly. LCL flights are fun, but I want to go places.

Quality of birds on the rental line is highly variable.

It's kind of depressing. Like going to a once fine restaurant only to find they are now only serving ham sandwiches on stale bread. But I'll keep on keepin' on, because I'm hooked.

Anybody got a nice Velocity SEFG or XLFG I can look at?
 
bartmc said:
Last time I saw a number, Cessna built in about 80K worth of litigation insurance into the price of every new 172 sold.
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I think that is true but only because they can be sued for 50 years after manufacture. Maybe they should shorten the life of responsibility to 10 years after sold new.
 
Chip Sylverne said:
Having recently sold my Cherokee, I've been actively searching for a HP or HP/complex to replace it. Thought I wanted a Comanche, but the latest tail AD took the bloom off that rose.
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The latest tail AD is a inspection only. It takes about 5-6 hrs at about $50 per hour of which you can help the mechanic. Almost none of the inspections have found damage (with the exception of one AI who is doing it improperly). I think out of 5000 planes 20 have been found to be cracked and most of those by one AI who I suspect created this alternative income for himself. Of those found nearly all of those came from very yearly 1958/59's models of Comanches. If you have damage it is now cheap to find a refurbished horn as many have sought to replace with a new horn so not to have to reinspect for 10 years 1000 hrs.. If you buy new its $600 if you buy used, $175-200. So not a real financial hit. PM me for my phone if you want to talk about it.


Chip Sylverne said:
Here's my take on the HP Single market:

1. Lotta just plain junk out there. With the cost of certified parts and avionics, not economic to bring back. Worth more as beer cans. I'm surprised FBO's allow some of this junk on the ramp. Flat tires, faded paint, control surfaces hanging off. Bad image for newcomers, that's for sure.
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Only people who have to sell, sell good planes in this market. With that said if you can find a good Comanche(one you won't have to dump alot of money into after purchasing), without a new $100k panel for under $60k then you are doing good. If Comanches were built new they would cost $550-600 probably within 10-15% of the A36. So if you can buy a $60k Comanche with the performance of a $550k plane then that is a bargain in my book.

Chip Sylverne said:
2. The aircraft with "good bones", well maintained airframes but with either time or calendar runouts are not priced accordingly. In time, they will move to category 1.
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You are talking about asking price on Tradeaplane or ebay. That is not necessarily what most knowledgeable buyers pay. Asking prices are stupid in many cases mainly because a guy will ask the same for a shelled plane that someone who has a finely conditioned one might expect. Many buyers don't know the difference. Many buyers will pay $39k for a deal which costs them another $30k to get it into the condition of the plane they could have bought for $60k to begin with.

Chip Sylverne said:
3. Good airframes and engines, but dated or obsolete avionics. Not economic to upgrade the avionics because of the stranglehold of certification. Now if you could slap in a Dynon....
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It is great if you can find that vintage plane with that has the proverbial $100k G600/Stec upgrade and it sells for $70-90k but there are not enough out there for us all to be so lucky. Those planes never make it to Tradeaplane or barnstormers as they are sold to friends of the deceased pilot or plane broker. I have a friend who has $400k invested in his 1970 260TC Comanche: new paint, new engine, new interior, duel G600's, Stec everything you can imagine. But no way in hell that plane will ever sell until his estate is settled, which he has to die first for that to happen.

You do not need $100k panel to enjoy aviation. If you are the type who needs the electronic board to feel part of the club then you are going to have to buy a straight plane and upgrade it. Means you will have a fantastic $600k equivalent plane but I don't see how you can do it for less than $160-180k.

Chip Sylverne said:
4. Nice airplanes with modern equipment aren't for sale in a depressed market. Owners know what they have, and are flying them. Sometimes there's an estate sale. The occasional bird in this category that comes up for sale is snapped up, generally locally.
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Exactly

Chip Sylverne said:
5. The bright spot seems to be E/AB. Avionics are affordable, and generally build quality is improving because the kit manufacturers are responsive to the builders. But if you want a 4 place traveling machine, choices are limited. Then there's the difficulty of assessing the build quality of a glass bird. Not impossible, but a mental hurdle for the neophyte to the class.
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IMO newbie stay away! There is no free lunch.

Chip Sylverne said:
7. Renting is expensive, not just for the bird hourly, which isn't that bad, but with daily minimums etc., it's not an optimal choice for long weekends and x/c, which is the reason I learned to fly. LCL flights are fun, but I want to go places.

Quality of birds on the rental line is highly variable.
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Renters get renters luck.
 
AccessFlight, I think the only way for GA to rise up again is the elimination of the 3rd class medical and also increasing the weight limit for LSAs so sport pilots can fly 150s, 152s, 172s and some pipers. I agree with you, flying and flight training has become too expensive, but we must not forget some of the rules and regulation which prohibit some people from flying or learning to fly.
 
N918KT said:
AccessFlight, I think the only way for GA to rise up again is the elimination of the 3rd class medical and also increasing the weight limit for LSAs so sport pilots can fly 150s, 152s, 172s and some pipers. I agree with you, flying and flight training has become too expensive, but we must not forget some of the rules and regulation which prohibit some people from flying or learning to fly.
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nah, that's all misdirection. The way to revive GA is to return to the tax laws and treatment of depreciation that we had in thr 70's. Also works for sales of boats, racehorses, purebred bulls, etc
 
Nothing new here, OP, you are a fine example of the problem.

You have wanted to do it for so long and yet have not.

To hell with all the people who are GA but are not pilots. (How I make my living BTW) Pilots are the key link, there are too few and the numbers are going the wrong way. Without pilots I'm out a job.

Go get the ticket, stay active for two or three years THEN come back with your ideas.


I'd apologize for being harsh but I'm not sorry. Get the ticket.
 
Chip Sylverne said:
Having recently sold my Cherokee, I've been actively searching for a HP or HP/complex to replace it. Thought I wanted a Comanche, but the latest tail AD took the bloom off that rose.

Here's my take on the HP Single market:
...
5. The bright spot seems to be E/AB. Avionics are affordable, and generally build quality is improving because the kit manufacturers are responsive to the builders. But if you want a 4 place traveling machine, choices are limited. Then there's the difficulty of assessing the build quality of a glass bird. Not impossible, but a mental hurdle for the neophyte to the class.
...
Anybody got a nice Velocity SEFG or XLFG I can look at?
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Clearly a smart man. Sold my Velocity SEFG with 200HP, Garmin 430W, Trutrak backup AI/2-axis autopilot, engine monitor, Garmin audio panel, 400 hrs for $70k. The buyer got a DEAL - I'm out of country and it wasn't fair to pickle her for a second time.

Visually wasn't the cleanest bird in the fleet, but had Velocity do the annual every year and she was very solid. The XLs are quite expensive and there are a lot of SEs out there that are overpriced by $50k, but there are some really good Velocity's out there for <$100k. The problem is that they tend to make you a sloppy pilot. Less complex than a 172 and faster than a Mooney 201 with no stall to worry about. Also, not sensitive at ALL to final approach speed so sloppiness on final isn't penalized. I actually worry about transition back to "normal" planes after 200+ hours in my Velocity.

This one looks like a pretty good deal but isn't an SE. After owning and flying, I don't think that would dissuade me, but by 60-65, it would become an issue. An SE is really easy to get in and out of. This one is sale pending, but looks like a lot of sales fall through.
http://www.barnstormers.com/listing_images.php?id=684957

A FGSE with a 430W or the newer garmin, an MT prop and a simple Dynon D10A+autopilot is a fabulous combination at a price that can't be touched. I'd strongly recommend the MT prop (which I didn't have). I'd also make sure that you can live with longer runways ... no 2500ft grass strips in a Velocity.
 
Ground school has been available on a computer for a song for well over 10 years. I'd also like to see it as a mandatory high school course, justified because aviation continues to so heavily impact the lives of every person in every modern society worldwide. It would go a long way towards demystifying flight for so many people.

Even with demystification by education, the strong trend in non-accountable type personalities these days is not the type that would do well in an activity as unforgiving as aviation at any level, or even have the initiative to seek it out and seriously pursue it. There will continue to be a widening separation between those that actively participate and those that do not, or simply occasionally come along for the pro bono ride, or try training and drop out from either wisdom or inability.

The "Experimental" owners and their aircraft will continue to grow the most in the sectors of GA, gradually yielding more and more used aircraft to the private market as the years go by, but generally only to the typical aviation personality that is fairly motivated and at least somewhat successful at many levels. Commercially certificated aircraft may hold their own for a while but, it is hard to see them growing in this country in the foreseeable future as long as the majority rules in government and the courts.

Personal flight's rewards and its excitement are acutely enhanced because of its demands in attaining it, and it is those demands that will eternally exclude the vast majority of people from active participation as PIC, and that is as it should be.
 
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iflyforfun said:
A FGSE with a 430W or the newer garmin, an MT prop and a simple Dynon D10A+autopilot is a fabulous combination at a price that can't be touched. I'd strongly recommend the MT prop (which I didn't have). I'd also make sure that you can live with longer runways ... no 2500ft grass strips in a Velocity.
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Saw your bird advertised. Shouldacalledshouldacalled...but timing wasn't right then.

I gotta have doors. My wife has a bum ankle that makes stepping down into a seat problematic. The bird you described above is what I'm setting my sights on. My backcountry flying days are over, uand the brides idea of camping out is no room service. I think I can live with 3k ft paved strips.

I called the folks at Sebastian, and I think the best way to start is to head down there for a tour and get checked out in their demo plane. If I don't like the flying characteristics, then it's back to square one anyway. Maybe around Sun n fun...

Thanks for the tips.
 
This is the thread that never ends.
It just goes on and on my friends.
Some people started replying not knowing what it was,
And they'll continue extending it forever just because,
This is the thread that never ends.
It just goes on and on my friends.
Some people started replying not knowing what it was,
And they'll continue extending it forever just because.....
 
Big word guy will return after surgery. He got carpal tunnel from typing.
 
Chip Sylverne said:
Saw your bird advertised. Shouldacalledshouldacalled...but timing wasn't right then.

I gotta have doors. My wife has a bum ankle that makes stepping down into a seat problematic. The bird you described above is what I'm setting my sights on. My backcountry flying days are over, uand the brides idea of camping out is no room service. I think I can live with 3k ft paved strips.

I called the folks at Sebastian, and I think the best way to start is to head down there for a tour and get checked out in their demo plane. If I don't like the flying characteristics, then it's back to square one anyway. Maybe around Sun n fun...

Thanks for the tips.
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Flying characteristics are a bit unusual, but once you become accustomed to them, they're fantastic. I guarantee you, when you first fly the plane you will think it is rediculously sensetive in pitch. You'll also notice a wallow in yaw.

I flew an XL before I flew an SE and swore I'd never buy an SE. After finding a deal that was too good to pass on, I bought the SE. The pitch/yaw/role combination is a bit different. When they do transition training in Sebastian, they won't sign you off until you can fly everything after turn to final with rudders only (at least, that was how they did it back in 2005 or so).

I say the above because a 30 min to 1 hour orientation flight simply doesn't do the plane justice. Even the first 5 hours or so in the pattern can be a little difficult. But once you adjust, it is so easy to fly it lets you get sloppy ... about the opposite of your first 5 hours of struggle. Pick a speed between 80 kts and 110 kts and point it at the runway. Landing aren't always so graceful with the main gear so far back, but the Velocity guys will show you how to grease it on ... something I never really mastered.

The Velocity is a GREAT plane and I hope one day to own another ... maybe if I get lucky I'll buy mine back from the guy that bought it from me :wink2:.
 
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