T storms and flight planning. What level is too high for you?

drotto

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drotto
I am a newly minted IFR pilot, and am planning my first trip that may include some IMC based on longer range forcasts (3 days out right now). I am very conservative at this point with my personal minimums.

So three days out my departure area looks good, and my arrival area is predicting partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms possible. I have flexibility in the day I can leave. Also being on the east coast, I realize that if we waited in the Summer for a day with no predicted thunderstorms we would never fly. Also if I depart and the weather does not agree I plan on diverting and wait it out for a few hours.

At what point of predicted thunderstorms do people push their flight plans to another day, or decide to drive?

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I’m in NC and regularly (1-2-3/month) fly up and down the east coast.

Strong cold fronts or a really messy stationary\occluded with embedded storms are really the only things that will move me off a day, a day or more in advance.

Otherwise, a forecast of scattered storms is almost always a wait, see, pick a time and route, and go take a look. Usually things can be improved by moving the flight earlier in the day.

I file high, get well above cloud base and stay visible most of the time. I bust convective non-storming clouds only when I can see where and when I come out. That happens frequently on climbs and descents. Less frequently to turn corners and penetrate benign buildups with blue sky on the other side.

Flying in a convective cloud is never fun. I never penetrate a storm cloud or line.

I know flying high is not always practical in NE airspace and on short routes. Easy to do after you get out of congested airspace.

A lot depends on the plane. One must have NEXRAD (now seemingly referred to as “radar” by ATC). The more speed and excess power you have the better. Climbs to 8-9-10k are useful and speed for getting around a corner of clouds quickly can help a lot. Tanker up.

Approaches aren’t generally needed. Seeing and flying around storm clouds is the task. Experience will help you do more, comfortably.


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Pop up thunderstorms on the east coast don’t stop me from flying.

Plan a route and then imagine a major thunderstorm 20 miles round right in the center of that route. Now do a flight plan with a waypoint 20 miles left or right of that storm. Look at the time difference. 4 or 5 minutes?

A frontal line between me and my destination will stop a flight.

Learn to talk to ATC. Deviations are easy. A few degrees here and there and you easily avoid cumulonimbus build ups. Climb high enough to be VMC (IFR but VMC) and avoid entering anything that looks bad.

Keep asking questions. There’s a lot to Flying IFR that’s not taught.


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I have Nextrad and know how to use it as well as its limitations. The DPE also spent a good chunk of my oral on that subject. I currently plan on leaving Sunday at 8 AM from mid NJ and that should get me to MQI around 10 AM.

The advance convective currently shows that lowest level of green on Forflight, but the local weather does sat AM scattered storms.

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At 8 a.m. I'd worry about overcast not convection. @drjcustis has my thoughts almost word for word in his post above.
 
Looks like you’ll have a high pressure system pushing through. Should be a good flight.

A day before, you can always call the weather briefer and ask for an outlook briefing. Then get specific with your questions. You can get them out of their routine of reading the METARs and TAFs to you. Most of them are pretty decent meteorologists and can help you understand the weather systems better.

Do that about a half dozen times and your confidence will go up.

Leave early. Fly high. At 10k most of us can go offshore a few miles and still be within glide distance. That will beat some, not all, of the convective activity.

Don’t ever think that flying IFR means you have to fly a straight line. Tell ATC what you need. Stay out of what you don’t want.


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Comments above to fly high.....which is kind of what I’ve done....until re-reading Robert Buck’s Weather Flying chapter on thunderstorms where he pretty adamantly states stay below building cumulus areas, not just particular cells. Comments from the crowd?
 
Comments above to fly high.....which is kind of what I’ve done....until re-reading Robert Buck’s Weather Flying chapter on thunderstorms where he pretty adamantly states stay below building cumulus areas, not just particular cells. Comments from the crowd?
You can definitely get into a situation where the buildups outclimb you, and that can lead to getting boxed in with no way to know what you're really punching in to. The overall density of the building cells in the area is important. Isolated, go high. But if the buildups ahead are already scattered and it's only early afternoon, you're asking to get sucked into something you might regret.
 
For isolated summer thunderstorms, it is best to stay below the bases of the clouds. Then you can see the rain shafts under the storms and pick your way around them. Much safer to maintain visual separation than depend on XM or ADS-B radar imagery.
 
I’ve been caught by building cumulonimbus once. I tried to outclimb and out run the storm buildups in the middle of the state of Florida in the afternoon in summer. Never made it, never would have. I was on the west side and when I realized there was no chance, I turned west and then circled down and flew underneath. It was hot, humid and turbulent but I could see the rain shafts and gave them a large berth.

Always have an out.


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On the east coast ATC seems to like giving 6000 feet for medium length trips over the lowlands, they seem reluctant to give higher alts. So I usually file for 6000, I can request 8000 and see what happens. There are plenty of airports along my flight path.

At this point I an 95% sure I am going Sunday morning. NJ area looks good, and the T storm predictions start in southern Delaware, but like I said the outlook now is the lowest light green on Foreflight. Which is basically constant over the summer.

Was already neurotic yesterday, and checked tire pressures, supplies, and even cleaned the interior of the plane. Also grabbed my data cards so everything is good and upto date.

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On the east coast ATC seems to like giving 6000 feet for medium length trips over the lowlands, they seem reluctant to give higher alts. So I usually file for 6000, I can request 8000 and see what happens. There are plenty of airports along my flight path.

I usually file and fly IFR if going somewhere. However, like in my most recent adventure a couple of weeks ago, I found it safer and more prudent to fly VFR at 2,500 feet just to maintain visual separation from the isolated t-storms that were building along my route. If I had done my routine IFR flight plan at even 4,000 feet, I would have spent 75% of the time IMC in one puffy cloud after another, and would not have a clear picture of where the weather really was. Now I had XM and ADS-B available, but as usual, the XM lost connection at the most inopportune moment, the ADS-B was flaky, and these storms were popping and moving quickly enough that my iPad showed me flying through the red of several storms when I was over 20 miles from the nearest rain column.
 
A lot of good suggestions. I agree with the high and low atttacks, just depends which I would use on the situation on that day. Generally morning less chance of buildups until about 10am generally.

Definitely use ATC. Centers actually have meteorologists on duty so the resource is there.

On board radar is nice to have. Most GA of course don't have it.
 
Flying early helps. Getting up to 10-12k helps. ATC really helps, at least in my travels; southeast to midwest.

I only got a short list misting on this trip. Several of us got "left and right deviations approved"

PDK-ISM.png

Forecasts did not show the rain around Jacksonville until hours later, but it was there. My plan was much more direct to Fernandina Beach, but the weather had me change my plan. Then the weather changed and Jacksonville approach brought me east of JAX instead of west (I was thinking of swinging around to RNAV 13). Got a little bit of rain, but light and not that much.

ISM-FHB.png
 
Being newly minted, I am still getting accustomed to working in the system solo, but I realize a big plus is having ATC wanting to keep you safe also. I plan on filing unless things appear perfect the entire way down.

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Wayne....so what'd the wife say bout that? Was she ok with the zigging and zagging?
 
At 10-12,000 with the wife in the back, she is asleep and oblivious to the zig zags. Keep the ball centered and the passengers have no idea.

And, again, never think that IFR means you have to fly straight through every cloud. My VFR only friends that fly with me IFR are surprised how much talking and negotiating goes on.


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Not weather related, but my second IFR flight solo was not the smoothest at the start. They assigned me a squawk, which the tower changed on me during climbout before handing me off to approach while on runway vectors. For whatever reason, this change went strangely. I am still on runway heading after about 5 minutes (not a radio out situation could communicate just fine), called ATC asking why I had not received my proceed to point and climb instruction. ACT come back why are you on that squawk frequency? I replay you guys gave it to me. At which point he gave me another squawk code as well as my point to enter my route, and to start my climb.

It was a beautiful VFR day, I knew exactly where I was, but still a little confusing for my second IFR flight. All in learning how to do this, and this will prove to be another learning experience.

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Wayne....so what'd the wife say bout that? Was she ok with the zigging and zagging?

Yep. We stayed out of the clouds for the most part. She's good with that. She's not so happy about bouncing up and down inside the clouds.



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Comments above to fly high.....which is kind of what I’ve done....until re-reading Robert Buck’s Weather Flying chapter on thunderstorms where he pretty adamantly states stay below building cumulus areas, not just particular cells. Comments from the crowd?
Buck’s experience was at a different time. No NEXRAD, lots of piston work, less accurate forecasting. Flying low can and will wear you out from the turbulence, heat and just sheer work involved. If you are getting paid for performance, low is probably more reliable. For fun with personal flexibility, high up is where it’s at most of the time. For me, I just can’t easily recall when I flew underneath as the better option.
For isolated summer thunderstorms, it is best to stay below the bases of the clouds. Then you can see the rain shafts under the storms and pick your way around them. Much safer to maintain visual separation than depend on XM or ADS-B radar imagery.
I’ve done plenty of low level picking in my Maule with and without my IR in hand. The more powerful (excess power) RV 10 makes flying high work consistently just as a turbine/pressurized craft would make high a slam dunk.
On the east coast ATC seems to like giving 6000 feet for medium length trips over the lowlands, they seem reluctant to give higher alts. So I usually file for 6000, I can request 8000 and see what happens. There are plenty of airports along my flight path.
Yes, 6k is about the best you can do there.
Being newly minted, I am still getting accustomed to working in the system solo, but I realize a big plus is having ATC wanting to keep you safe also. I plan on filing unless things appear perfect the entire way down.
ATC can and will help... most of the time. Sometimes workload limits what they can do so you can never become dependent. Always be ready to handle ,”...unable, say intentions”. Always be in command of you and your aircraft.

If you are still becoming accustomed to working with ATC, file and fly in the system on all cross countries. It will feel like work at first. When it stops feeling like work, you’ve mastered it and may find filing IFR on VFR days is easier than VFR like many of us have.
And, again, never think that IFR means you have to fly straight through every cloud. My VFR only friends that fly with me IFR are surprised how much talking and negotiating goes on.
Amen. That’s how it really works.
Not weather related, but my second IFR flight solo was not the smoothest at the start. They assigned me a squawk, which the tower changed on me during climbout before handing me off to approach while on runway vectors. For whatever reason, this change went strangely. I am still on runway heading after about 5 minutes (not a radio out situation could communicate just fine), called ATC asking why I had not received my proceed to point and climb instruction. ACT come back why are you on that squawk frequency? I replay you guys gave it to me. At which point he gave me another squawk code as well as my point to enter my route, and to start my climb.

It was a beautiful VFR day, I knew exactly where I was, but still a little confusing for my second IFR flight. All in learning how to do this, and this will prove to be another learning experience.
That’s typical in the NY\Philly Area. Getting used to dealing with it is part of flying in a congested area. I can fly all over the east but when I get near NY I have to up my game a bit and really work to anticipate what may happen. File and fly IFR as much as you can.


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I don't know from where in Jersey you're departing, but generally the reason for the 6k are approach and departure corridors. Once you get south of the Philly Bravo and far enough east of the SFRA, you'll be able to get pretty much whatever you want. Be prepared for some amended clearances from Potomac.

My CFII drilled into me ATC is there to help. They really are, just ask.

You're going to have a blast. Plus, there are a gazillion airports along the way. If it looks like stuff is going to hit the fan, land at one of them and wait it out.
 
If your flying in Florida ,ATC Will do everything possible to keep you out of convective weather. You can also land and let the cell go over you,and continue a short time later.
 
To each his own. This is way too conservative approach for me. It would keep Florida pilots on the ground half the year.

There is a reason there is this for 135 IFR guys

”§135.175 Airborne weather radarequipment requirements.
(b) No person may begin a flight under IFR or night VFR conditions when current weather reports indicate that thunderstorms, or other potentially hazardous weather conditions that can be detected with airborne weather radar equipment, may reasonably be expected along the route to be flown, unless the airborne weather radar equipment required by paragraph (a) of this section is in satisfactory operating condition.”

Even with my pt91 personal plane I hold myself to many of the 135 regs.

You can launch into IMC with embedded CBs and you’ll probably be fine, but I would do it ;)
 
There is a reason there is this for 135 IFR guys

”§135.175 Airborne weather radarequipment requirements.
(b) No person may begin a flight under IFR or night VFR conditions when current weather reports indicate that thunderstorms, or other potentially hazardous weather conditions that can be detected with airborne weather radar equipment, may reasonably be expected along the route to be flown, unless the airborne weather radar equipment required by paragraph (a) of this section is in satisfactory operating condition.”

Even with my pt91 personal plane I hold myself to many of the 135 regs.

You can launch into IMC with embedded CBs and you’ll probably be fine, but I would do it ;)
I am not talking about launching when there are thunderstorms around. I am more looking at the extended forcasts, and even daily forcasts that say t storms possible, not when there are actually storms detected. That light green or green coloring that the NOAA categorical outlook map gives that indicate a small to marginal chance of storms. Or even the yellow indication that is marked as slight. I and not talking about the enhance to high likelyhood predictions. In those higher cases I would not be flying.

At this point the ceiling and visibility predictions are showing 6000 and greater ceilings and 6 plus miles of visibility. So except for the scatter t storm prediction it looks like good flying weather.

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I’d just go VFR <6k

Also you should see a side by side between XM/NEXRAD and live onboard radar, there are a few times I’ve though “man would be a world of hurt to be IMC navigating this with ADSB weather in a 182 right now”


With how fast CBs come and go...
 
It's different down South. Don't need no stinkin' radar. But, I'll take it if I can get it. ;)
 
I don't like to try to get on top if it's a completely solid layer because I have ran out of altitude in the past when I've done that. EVERYTHING came up on me. Now if coverage is 30 to 50% or less then I will get on top and bob and weave my way through.
 
On the east coast ATC seems to like giving 6000 feet for medium length trips over the lowlands, they seem reluctant to give higher alts. So I usually file for 6000, I can request 8000 and see what happens. There are plenty of airports along my flight path.
I don’t think trip length has anything to do with it. That seems to be a regional thing affecting the Philly-NY corridor.

Everywhere I fly on the east coast I get whatever altitude I file for....until I get near Philly/NY, then they always seem to drop me down to 4-6k.
 
I’d just go VFR <6k

Also you should see a side by side between XM/NEXRAD and live onboard radar, there are a few times I’ve though “man would be a world of hurt to be IMC navigating this with ADSB weather in a 182 right now”


With how fast CBs come and go...
That’s why you don’t go blasting through cells in IMC with ADS-B or XM. But that doesn’t mean you should wholesale avoid flying IFR without onboard radar when there are T-storms.

As long as you understand the limitations of the equipment, you can safely use it to navigate storms. You just have to give the weather a much wider berth.

We’re not talking trying to penetrate frontal T-storms here.
 
Being newly minted, I am still getting accustomed to working in the system solo, but I realize a big plus is having ATC wanting to keep you safe also. I plan on filing unless things appear perfect the entire way down.

Even if it’s perfect, file anyway. It won’t add any significant workload and you’ll get practice in being in the system. If the weather starts changing, you’re already IFR and don’t have to ask for a pop-up clearance, or anything, just keep flying your clearance and start negotiations if you’re not comfortable with what you see out the window.

That’ll work in your favor as experience for how to look at changes and negotiate when it’s much worse out the window someday and you need the deviation RIGHT NOW.

Get used to talking to the controllers and working with them. File. Even in good weather.

Cancel if they reroute you a million miles out of your way, or otherwise make the trip turn from fun to stupid. :)
 
I've always believed in going high. Down low, there's more clouds and you don't know whats 'just a cloud' and whats associated with the storm. You have more of a chance of being in IMC down low.

When you're above most of the lower level clouds, you have more real estate to work with and just have to stay away from the really tall towering clouds. Even 17,000-FL250 helps a lot because you're above the lower clouds and you can fly more direct.
 
Get high and stay visual as much as you can. This is a pretty normal summer day. At 9k and would have gone to 11k if I needed it. I'm in and out of clouds at some points but I can tell there is nothing towering in front of me.

The tall clouds to my left were showing as cells on the XM wx and spiking my strike finder every few mins.


faware_1532053857.png
 
Comments above to fly high.....which is kind of what I’ve done....until re-reading Robert Buck’s Weather Flying chapter on thunderstorms where he pretty adamantly states stay below building cumulus areas, not just particular cells. Comments from the crowd?
Don't know that I'm "right", but with scattered cells around, I do stay low, so I can see the weather, even with Nexrad and ATC advice. That's in a 172, so "high" isn't an option.

Don't take off on the leading edge of a cold front - that was an early mistake I made, and have not repeated.
 
This really good stuff. I am a newbie IR as well and I appreciate all of the great, practical info. Keep it coming.
 
The benefit to going higher is you can get above some of the lower clouds and see whats towering and it makes it easier to see and avoid the bad stuff. Down low, all the clouds look the same and you don't know whats bad and whats not unless you have a real weather radar (not talking about xm)
 
Like alot of attendees, I had a little bit of weather to fly back in on Saturday from Oshkosh. Really not a problem. I had a table (Garmin Pilot with XM Weather) and of course ATC.

Here are my two legs. The YouTube link will take you down both legs. You will see on the video what the route actually looked like in the air. I flew between 8,000 - 10,000'. ATC was a HUGE help, especially Memphis Center through central Arkansas. On the YouTube video, you will hear ATC helping several pilots get through this weather.


07-28-18_zpsadwqacd4.png


07-28-18v_zpsmjox6agy.png


I am certainly not an expert IFR pilot, but if you have a tablet with weather (and realize it is 15 minutes old) and use ATC, you can generally pick your way through most weather issues. The main thing is to make sure you have plenty of fuel - what you flight plan for is probably not going to be accurate - you will use more than what a normal "good" weather trip would take.

But if you don't feel comfortable, don't go. I don't feel like I take much risk compared to alot of other pilots I know. If it is dark green - I ain't going in!
 
I’m no IFR expert but here is my strategy. My personal altitude limit is 20k. That’s where I feel if I lost my oxygen I could comfortably get down in time to breathable air. My decisions are based on many factors. If the ceiling is high enough for the IFR rout I’ve chosen I will fly bellow the clouds to avoid the buildups and to see the heavy rain. If majority of the cloud tops are bellow the freezing level I will go above. If there are lots of clouds reported above the freezing level and a low ceiling I just want go with my current equipment and experience.
 
The benefit to going higher is you can get above some of the lower clouds and see whats towering and it makes it easier to see and avoid the bad stuff. Down low, all the clouds look the same and you don't know whats bad and whats not unless you have a real weather radar (not talking about xm)
If you are below the bases, assuming the bases are high enough to fly safely under, you don't have to avoid the clouds. You just have to avoid the actual areas of precip which are very visible and obvious. Then you don't need any type of radar data, although XM or Nexrad at least gives you a big picture view of the situation.
 
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