Strength of GA?

RyanB

RyanB

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How does the sustainability and health of General Aviation look in the near term?

It seems there are a greater amount of aircraft on the market for sale and with inflation rearing its head on everything from the price of fuel, to parts, to hangar etc., at what point does the squeeze really start to impact things? I realize the answer to that question will vary from person to person and those who are still in the game are likely to be less affected than those trying to get into it. It seems flight schools can charge about any price they want and their schedules still stay full, but I've noticed a little bit of a slow down around here. Flight school schedules don't seem to be busting at the seams like they were a year ago. I’m curious who has experienced a slow down due to prices just getting out of sight and what factors will have to occur for you to begin slowing down? That said, are you seeing any slow downs where you are?
 
No slowdowns here. On the contrary, more instructors and more full schedules than I’ve seen the last 8 years since I’ve been paying attention. DPEs are hard to schedule. Maintenance shop is hopping. Local avionics shop is still booked a year out. Hangars are full.
 
swamped here. It feels more along rural/city lines to me. I can go 50nm away and find ghost towns with runways attached, some with encroaching and hungry subdivisions :D
 
RyanB said:
That said, are you seeing any slow downs where you are?
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I think for private GA you have to put it into context. If you compare the overall picture today from say 15 years ago you'll find its more a definition of supply and demand than whether there's a "slowdown" or increase in this specific industry. One reason on the maintenance side that shops are full and in demand is the numbers of maintenance providers has dropped considerably based on previous decades. With the numbers in the private GA sector dropping the most. So while it looks like there is no slowdown in some locations its simply there's not as many people to provide the services. And if I were to guess, the same could be said in the flight training industry but that is driven by different dynamics than the mx side. Bottomline, from my viewpoint and experience, private GA is at the top of the proverbial slippery slope and unless more young people decide to fly conventional aircraft vs a drone I think as an industry it will lose more "strength" than it gains in the coming years.
 
Going gangbusters around here. Both rec GA and corporate.
 
jbarrass said:
Going gangbusters around here. Both rec GA and corporate.
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Same. If you need so much as a biannual flight review, you need to start trying to book a few months in advance.
 
How this industry can be growing if there are hardly any new piston planes being sold and private ownership revolves around ever dwindling pool of decades old legacy planes ?

The only bright spot are experimentals and perhaps new Mosaic based light sports with their proposed 2500 lbs gross and 200 knots speed limit rules ( if that one ever comes to be )
 
Warmi said:
How this industry can be growing if there are hardly any new piston planes being sold and private ownership revolves around ever dwindling pool of decades old legacy planes ?

The only bright spot are experimentals and perhaps new Mosaic based light sports with their proposed 2500 lbs gross and 200 knots speed limit rules ( if that one ever comes to be )
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I’ve wondered that too, especially with the costs of entry. Makes it very prohibitive for most folks.
 
Warmi said:
How this industry can be growing if there are hardly any new piston planes being sold and private ownership revolves around ever dwindling pool of decades old legacy planes ?

The only bright spot are experimentals and perhaps new Mosaic based light sports with their proposed 2500 lbs gross and 200 knots speed limit rules ( if that one ever comes to be )
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That’s assuming every available legacy airplane is airworthy and flying, and barn find airplanes are not being restored and put back into service. That’s not the case. There seems to be no shortage of legacy aircraft on tap and barnstormers.
 
The backbone of GA is all the students, and pilots trying to make it to the airlines. GA for owners is where the real effects are being felt. Airplan prices, LL, MX, insurance, hangar/tie downs have killed off the middle class working man from owning their own plane. I mean they can get a 60 year old beater and fly it around. But people do want nice things, not having to settle for what many pilots perceive as junk.

We also have the big name FBOs buying out the smaller more personable ones that wouldn’t charge $50 to use their ramp for 10 minutes. KGON has had Columbia air service there for years, great people, no insane fee, and always busy. Was just bought out by a Modern, and now they want $40 just to use the ramp.

Now add in that counties, states, etc see the land that an airport sits on being more valuable as condos or shopping centers. So they don’t put any money into the existing airports.

The only change for the positive is the cost of avionics. But the labor rates have gone up.
 
GA as a whole is thriving but like stated above, this has mostly to do with student training for the airline route.

For those of us in private ownership GA, I still see a bleak future compared to the heyday of the 70s. Just not enough new blood coming in that are willing to deal with the operating costs of GA ownership. Just my hangar fees in the last year have gone up 40% with future increase on the way. Talking to a composite guy who repaired my Velocity. He said he used to buy a gallon of resin at around $100, now it’s close to $400. Inflation is killing private GA right now and I really can’t see it getting better anytime soon. Thinking about selling the planes and getting a Jetson One. :)
 
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TommyG said:
The backbone of GA is all the students, and pilots trying to make it to the airlines. GA for owners is where the real effects are being felt. Airplan prices, LL, MX, insurance, hangar/tie downs have killed off the middle class working man from owning their own plane. I mean they can get a 60 year old beater and fly it around. But people do want nice things, not having to settle for what many pilots perceive as junk.

We also have the big name FBOs buying out the smaller more personable ones that wouldn’t charge $50 to use their ramp for 10 minutes. KGON has had Columbia air service there for years, great people, no insane fee, and always busy. Was just bought out by a Modern, and now they want $40 just to use the ramp.

Now add in that counties, states, etc see the land that an airport sits on being more valuable as condos or shopping centers. So they don’t put any money into the existing airports.

The only change for the positive is the cost of avionics. But the labor rates have gone up.
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They wouldn’t be buying FBOs if they thought they were going to be losing money in 5-10 years, just sayin’…
 
I think GA as something that is attainable for the “middle class” will continue to wane. I just don’t think there are people with enough disposable income, or people that are willing to substantially change their lifestyles, for it to continue as it has in the past. The median household income in the US is 75k/yr, so about $60k after taxes. Average rent is somewhere between $1400-$2000/mo depending on who you ask. Throw in health insurance, car payment, groceries, and gas and there really isn’t a whole lot left over.

According to fool dot com, even “upper middle class” is “between $89,745 and $149,131” in 2023. With home prices at record highs, inflation rising substantially faster than wages, healthcare costs at an all-time high, these will all substantially influence the health of GA.
 
Bell206 said:
I think for private GA you have to put it into context. If you compare the overall picture today from say 15 years ago you'll find its more a definition of supply and demand than whether there's a "slowdown" or increase in this specific industry. One reason on the maintenance side that shops are full and in demand is the numbers of maintenance providers has dropped considerably based on previous decades. With the numbers in the private GA sector dropping the most. So while it looks like there is no slowdown in some locations its simply there's not as many people to provide the services. And if I were to guess, the same could be said in the flight training industry but that is driven by different dynamics than the mx side. Bottomline, from my viewpoint and experience, private GA is at the top of the proverbial slippery slope and unless more young people decide to fly conventional aircraft vs a drone I think as an industry it will lose more "strength" than it gains in the coming years.
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The culture of GA has changed with America, following the arc of regulation and its cost.

Regulations and lawfare have killed new-aircraft affordability. Those onerous costs are passed on to the consumer in a vicious cycle, driving the middle class out of ownership.

Same with mx providers. Why would they take chances with marginal repairs to save an owner a few bucks when the consequences could cost them everything?

The 'starving flight instructor' business model ensures that as soon as any better-paying option appears, the instructor vanishes and is replaced by another victim with wet ink.

I've thought seriously about getting a CFI and doing experimental tailwheel transition training at some future point, as there is a huge need for it.

Then I thought about my wife being homeless after burying me in a cardboard box when a student killed me and their estate sued her. Thanks, but no thanks.
 
RyanShort1 said:
They wouldn’t be buying FBOs if they thought they were going to be losing money in 5-10 years, just sayin’…
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There is no shortage of people that think they can make a fortune in aviation, only to find out the truth of "to make a small fortune in aviation you simply need to start with a large fortune"
 
Salty said:
Considering there are probably more new private jets being sold than piston planes these days, I think that its not GA that’s dying, its just the hobby segment.
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Exactly. Those that can and will pay the $3000 landing fees will be fine, those that can’t or won’t will die on the vine.
 
For the health of GA, we might need a little slowdown. If you want to buy a new Piper, Diamond, Cirrus, maybe even Cessna, you are going to be waiting a year or more.mIf you want a hangar in most places, likely going to be waiting years. If you have a good plane, you are sitting on a little gold. Of course some planes are going to be more desirable than others, but you don't see good planes sitting around very long. Many planes advertised for sale have gremlins or aren't really for sale. Only find that out when you call and get the; well that one is sold, but what are you looking for dance. Not sure the middle class is priced out of GA. You can buy some planes for the price of a luxury SUV, and operate them on a similar budget. If you want a most weather plane that goes 200/300 knots, yeah you are going to pay, but that is a lot of plane.

Gama numbers from last year. Over 1500 new pistons sold. This year will likely be even more. 23 billion in fixed wing sales.
 

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Bob Noel said:
There is no shortage of people that think they can make a fortune in aviation, only to find out the truth of "to make a small fortune in aviation you simply need to start with a large fortune"
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That’s why multimillionaires hire data analysts to try to make better decisions…
 
FancyG said:
Regulations and lawfare have killed new-aircraft affordability.
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I think that is where the context of the topic comes into play. If this were the case why would Textron spend 10s of millions to certify 2 clean sheet aircraft in the last 5 years for the “GA” market? Even the FAA rewrote the regulations to make certification easier. I think it is more a shift in the demographics of ownership in the private/recreational side of the GA that drives that market now and OEMs like Textron and others have shifted in response.
FancyG said:
Same with mx providers. Why would they take chances with marginal repairs to save an owner a few bucks when the consequences could cost them everything?
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In all honesty, I think its more a generational issue in that we have become a throwaway society who does not want to fix things anymore. And that goes for the mechanic side as well. While I don’t follow what you mean by “marginal repairs” what I’ve seen is a growing number of owners… and mechanics, who prefer just to replace parts vs troubleshoot and repair the problem. Its becoming the norm vs exception in my experience.
 
Rockymountain said:
You can buy some planes for the price of a luxury SUV, and operate them on a similar budget.
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What percentage of people who make $90,000/yr are buying new luxury SUVs?

A super cub costs $100,000+, I guess partially that’s to blame on all the “backcountry cowboy” types, but that’s not an attainable goal to the vast majority of people. Even a clapped out 150 is $30k these days. Most are substantially more. I bought a brand new Jeep Cherokee Sporthawk last year with all the bells and whistles, and still spent less than half of what any airplane I would potentially want costs.
 
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DavidWhite said:
What percentage of people who make $90,000/yr are buying new luxury SUVs?

A super cub costs $100,000+, I guess partially that’s to blame on all the “backcountry cowboy” rslurs, but that’s not an attainable goal to the vast majority of people. Even a clapped out 150 is $30k these days.
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Too many. :-/
 
DavidWhite said:
Fair enough. If there’s one thing that never changes, its certainly “keeping up with the joneses”.
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If you could buy a plane and somehow ALSO improve your standing in the eyes of your covetous neighbors, GA would go nuts.

The number of bro-dozers, class A RVs, tacticool overland rigs, boats and dune-toys I see around me make ME feel poor. Not a one of them under 100k to start.
 
N=1 data point, but i exited last month after 13 active years, over price inflation and lack of availability (vendor traction and turn times) of engine mx as a non flight school/non-revenue customer.

I was on the low end of the hull value and though i could have afforded to buy my own airplane in 2023 values, i'm one of the few odd birds for whom the question of value is not merely a euphemism for ability to afford, but also willingness. As such, even 2019 values/pricing dynamics still penciled out for me, 2023 just didnt.

In my opinion the non-revenue side isnt doing well, but im sure that opinion will get poor-shamed away. Whatever, no dog in the fight anymore.

All that said, i do hope to re-enter the hobby via the experimental side in the near/far future (ideally before i lose access to acro via work airplane), but prices will have to adjust down some for me to recommit, even on that side.

Ive never been opposed to fly other peoples "trash" (worked well for me for the past 13 years), but it better come with trash prices. What's going on right now is peak irrational exuberance, so ill sit out until conditions improve or i find a more responsive/value-adding hobby. *shrugs*
 
I wonder how much the utility of General Aviation may be fading, which may be driving diminishing use?

Used to be the GA sweet spot was 150-600 miles, right? Especially compared to the 1970s, when cars and highways were less and airline travel was much costlier and rare. Shoot, most people rarely made long-distance phone calls!

These days, there are a zillion commercial flights for very little money. The experience may suck, but it's 5x faster and 1/2 the cost of driving, and travel numbers show that. And really nice highway cars safely cruise pretty good highways at 75-80mph speed limits.

That's pretty stiff competition for a SEP GA aircraft, even with the unpleasantness of airlines, commercial airports, and metro traffic.
 
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G-Man said:
I wonder how much the utility of General Aviation may be fading?

Used to be the GA sweet spot was 150-600 miles, right? Especially compared to the 1970s, when cars and highways were less and airline travel was much costlier and rare. Shoot, most people rarely made long-distance phone calls!

These days, there are a zillion commercial flights for very little money. The experience may suck, but it's 5x faster and 1/2 the cost of driving, and travel numbers show that. And really nice highway cars safely cruise pretty good highways at 75-80mph speed limits.

That's pretty stiff competition for a SEP GA aircraft, even with the unpleasantness of airlines, commericial airports, and metro traffic.
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I suspect it’s more so “because I can” type of mentality, because you’re right.
 
schmookeeg said:
If you could buy a plane and somehow ALSO improve your standing in the eyes of your covetous neighbors, GA would go nuts.

The number of bro-dozers, class A RVs, tacticool overland rigs, boats and dune-toys I see around me make ME feel poor. Not a one of them under 100k to start.
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Fun fact: there’s a free glock in the center console of every bro-dozer.
 
The current median household income is somewhere around $70K, depending on the source. A decent 172 will probably require at least a 1/4 of that in annual expenditures (hangar/tie down, insurance, maintenance, fuel, etc). GA ownership doesn't really pencil for the "average" guy or gal.
 
Building on @Bell206 idea that things are just different now...:cool:

How many of the Flight Students today are getting loans or signing contracts with a financier? Basically, deep in someones dept.
How many Flight Schools are operating on some sort of outside money? The last flight school start-up that I talked to had a huge international backer. Others have airline backers. Today part 141 Flight Schools are buying new trainers by the dozen at +$250,000 @ and that requires outside financing of some type.

Many of us here most likely learned at a 'Pay-As-You-Go FBO Flight School'. Those Flight Schools didn't have two dimes to rub together and the owners just showed up because they didn't know what else to do. They would try to make their money doing FBO stuff like fuel, training, charter, maintenance shop, buying and selling aircraft.

The Ol' General Aviation Industry is fading with the Baby Boomer generation. Sure miss the ol' FBO Flight School era. You always felt welcome to just hang out talk flying, drink their free coffee and eat the stale donuts.:blueplane:
 
Klaus M said:
Many of us here most likely learned at a 'Pay-As-You-Go FBO Flight School'. Those Flight Schools didn't have two dimes to rub together and the owners just showed up because they didn't know what else to do. They would try to make their money doing FBO stuff like fuel, training, charter, maintenance shop, buying and selling aircraft.

The Ol' General Aviation Industry is fading with the Baby Boomer generation. Sure miss the ol' FBO Flight School era. You always felt welcome to just hang out talk flying, drink their free coffee and eat the stale donuts.:blueplane:
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I work at one of the old-style schools. Part 61, pay as you go. I am not aware of any of our students borrowing money to finance lessons - they either have parents willing to pay, or they are middle aged and can afford to pay out of pocket. A number of the younger students have scholarships.

We do have a lot of older folks who come in to hang out, drink coffee, tell war stories and enjoy the almost museum-like atmosphere of our FBO. Donuts don't last long enough to get stale. We don't make much money giving lessons or renting airplanes, but we do sell a fair amount of jet fuel.
 
Bell206 said:
In all honesty, I think its more a generational issue in that we have become a throwaway society who does not want to fix things anymore. And that goes for the mechanic side as well. While I don’t follow what you mean by “marginal repairs” what I’ve seen is a growing number of owners… and mechanics, who prefer just to replace parts vs troubleshoot and repair the problem. Its becoming the norm vs exception in my experience.
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"Deferring mx" then.

Typically by the BYOP crowd (bring your own parts) that fly neglected deathtraps they painted with latex house paint at their tie-down.

The pilots that see no need to replace factory hoses from the 1960's, poormouth and pizz and moan about every penny the shop charges them.
 
Gilbert Buettner said:
I work at one of the old-style schools. Part 61, pay as you go. I am not aware of any of our students borrowing money to finance lessons - they either have parents willing to pay, or they are middle aged and can afford to pay out of pocket. A number of the younger students have scholarships.

We do have a lot of older folks who come in to hang out, drink coffee, tell war stories and enjoy the almost museum-like atmosphere of our FBO. Donuts don't last long enough to get stale. We don't make much money giving lessons or renting airplanes, but we do sell a fair amount of jet fuel.
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Keep up the good work. Out here in Alaska and Washington there's less and less of your type of 61 training schools. :(

They're is still a handful of 61 schools but, the 141 have multiple financing options most of the 61 don't. Plus most of the 141 schools finish with a degree in something.

Big Bend Community College
Central Washington University
Rainer Flight Service
University of Alaska Anchorage
University of Alaska Fairbanks
 
Klaus M said:
Keep up the good work. Out here in Alaska and Washington there's less and less of your type of 61 training schools. :(

They're is still a handful of 61 schools but, the 141 have multiple financing options most of the 61 don't. Plus most of the 141 schools finish with a degree in something.

Big Bend Community College
Central Washington University
Rainer Flight Service
University of Alaska Anchorage
University of Alaska Fairbanks
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That might have something to do with the overall local business environment. Places where businesses are moving to are thriving.
 
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