Socata TBM 700 Crash Brooklyn Park, MN onroute to Anoka County-Blaine Airport

Kelvin

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Been digging into this today, since it's somewhat local to me. LLC filings suggest the pilot may be Terrance R. Dolan, an executive with US Bank. I hope he wasn't carrying his whole family.

Looks like the pilot was in trouble the moment autopilot was disconnected. There's a video of the airplane coming out of the clouds in a screaming dive - the vertical speed on those last couple ADSB returns is brutal.

He checked in on the RNAV 09 with KANE tower, confirmed he had the current ATIS, and the next interaction was tower issuing an unanswered low altitude warning several minutes later. It's been IFR conditions all day, and there wasn't much other radio chatter.

Screen Shot 2025-03-29 at 12.59.13.png
 
Lawn darted in. Let’s see if I remember Juan said. Power back to idle , neutral Ailerons, Brisk forward on controls, Full rudder opposite turn. Think he ran out of altitude.
Icing or just lost it on instruments?
 
N721MB
Crash occurred about 1722z

KANE 291649Z 03012KT 10SM OVC009 03/02 A2992

There was an AIRMET for moderate icing and one for IFR at the time

Previous flights had an approach groundspeed at 160 at the FAF, decaying to about 80 knots over the numbers. This flight was level at 3000 for several minutes prior to the FAF (about where the accident occurred) and the groundspeed got down to about 72, still level, when the aircraft appeared to depart controlled flight.

This particular aircraft’s ADS-B does not appear to carry autopilot/nav mode data, but the track was straight enough to indicate at least some mode of autopilot was likely in use for lateral navigation.
 
This is ugly ... :(

"The Federal Aviation Administration said the SOCATA TBM7 crashed in a residential area in Brooklyn Park, Minnesota, around 12:20 p.m. local time."


Ring camera video is saddening ... Video from CBS
 
Ooof that's brutal. I'm also local, did my CFI initial there.
 
The plane was registered to Terry Dolan, U.S. Bank’s vice chair and chief administration officer, the corporation told CNN in a statement. “The medical examiner’s office has not been able to confirm whether he was on board, but we believe he was..."

 
Is 76 knots at the FAF a reasonable speed for this airplane?
Final approach speed on a TBM is 85 at gross or 80 if you're light, so it's not out of line.

TBMs are also well protected for icing. Engine inlet is always heated passively with no moving parts - It's an elegantly simple system that's pretty much failure proof. Prop and windscreen are electrically heated, wings and tail use boots that are automatically sequenced. Really, if you're going into icing you flip three switches (prop, windscreen, surfaces) and forget it. Pitot heat, which also heats both stall vanes, should be turned on just before takeoff and off just after landing.

Unfortunately, it's a popular type of aircraft for owner-pilots with a lot of money but not enough time to stay proficient. It's not hard to fly, but it's also fast and powerful enough to leave a rusty pilot behind in a hurry.
 
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He was humming along at 160 or so iirc. Descended to 3000. I would not be at all surprised to learn that he throttled back to slow down/go down and forgot to throttle up on level-off. I will cop to having made that mistake. Autopilot keeps him level, straight and happy, meanwhile he doesn’t notice the speed bleeding off or pitch change. Then the inevitable stall. (Cue the inevitable 10 page stall recovery discussion.)

Please - spare me the ‘hOw DArE u SpecULatE AbOut tHe AccIDEnT?!’ comments.
 
Huh, my analysis in here is being used nearly verbatim on other accident reporting sites. Kinda weird. On one hand, I’m flattered, but a) I’m not an official source of info, and b) I don’t want it to look as if the reverse is happening, where I’m plagiarizing them.
 
One thing about turbines is there isn't a lot of noise variation based on power setting, like there is on a piston. No auto throttle on the older TBMs either. Entirely possible the autopilot was flying. He reduced power during the descent. The autopilot leveled off at the initial altitude for the approach but he didn't add power. Aircraft slowed without the pilot noticing until it stalled or the autopilot disconnected. The TBM has the power to torque roll you at low airspeed, so trying to respond to a stall and/or spin at low altitude can be unforgiving.
 
Wow, just realized I have been in this very TBM many years ago under a different tail number.
 
Holy Cow the previous N721MB was a helicopter with 83 service difficulty reports.
New owners should have had an exorcism on that tail number.
 
Aircraft slowed without the pilot noticing
That can happen.
One of my (many) side projects is a little box that plugs into the serial data output from an AV-30, recording the current flight parameters at the push of a button. You deviate from those parameters by a preset amount and you get a gentle reminder. Poor man's verbal envelope protection.
For a small fee, I can program the box to nag you in your spouse's voice. That'll give you a good incentive to fly good.
 
The TBM 700 stall warning system provides an aural "STALL" warning, and its correct operation can be affected by severe or prolonged icing, potentially leading to an ice concretion around the heated stall warning sensor. Interesting
 
The TBM 700 stall warning system provides an aural "STALL" warning, and its correct operation can be affected by severe or prolonged icing, potentially leading to an ice concretion around the heated stall warning sensor. Interesting
If the 700 is like the other TBMs, the pitot heat and the stall vane heat are on the same switch, and it should be on throughout the entire flight if the pilot was following the checklists.
 
He was humming along at 160 or so iirc. Descended to 3000. I would not be at all surprised to learn that he throttled back to slow down/go down and forgot to throttle up on level-off. I will cop to having made that mistake. Autopilot keeps him level, straight and happy, meanwhile he doesn’t notice the speed bleeding off or pitch change. Then the inevitable stall. (Cue the inevitable 10 page stall recovery discussion.)

Please - spare me the ‘hOw DArE u SpecULatE AbOut tHe AccIDEnT?!’ comments.

The following might help you speculate. Expanding on something mentioned earlier, the plane was at 4000 feet (forecasted 0 to +5C) for four minutes, then at 3000 feet (forecasted -5C to 0) for over 13 minutes. That's a long time to be in the soup IF it was accumulating ice. The ground speed on the final inbound course (089 degrees) at 3000 started out at about 110 knots then bled down to just below 90 knots prior to the descent. Historical winds forecasted for that time were 054/19.

What is most interesting is there was a forecasted temperature inversion (it was +5 to +10 at 6,000 MSL) as it descened below 6000 feet and wind shear forecasted below 2000 feet.

MSL Winds
3000 054/19
2000 063/20
1500 081/20
1000 360/17
500 108/09

The plane started turning left off course as it passed through 2500, so that wind shear may not have played a part. But, maybe the temperature inversion wasn't noticed or respected?
 
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Interesting analysis Scott. So maybe some ice. Seemed on the slow side even for a clean airframe. Even a little ice could change that equation. Sad.
 
A whole lotta clear (I’d bet)….look at that long warm saturated nose a rightward slope of the convergent dewpoint and ambient & lines. !!!
 
yeah, they tried to blame ice on Colgan 3407 too. Space aliens.
Well, 3407 was kind of a result of icing... They were talking about tailplane icing when they should have had sterile cockpit, and when they neglected to pay attention to airspeed, the captain felt the stick shaker and reacted as if it was tailplane icing, causing a quick stall. I can't remember if he buried the yoke in his lap the whole way down (or even if that was part of the report) but it seems like he was so convinced in his head that they were going to experience tailplane icing that he stalled the plane reacting to the imaginary tailplane icing.
 
Well, 3407 was kind of a result of icing... They were talking about tailplane icing when they should have had sterile cockpit, and when they neglected to pay attention to airspeed, the captain felt the stick shaker and reacted as if it was tailplane icing, causing a quick stall. I can't remember if he buried the yoke in his lap the whole way down (or even if that was part of the report) but it seems like he was so convinced in his head that they were going to experience tailplane icing that he stalled the plane reacting to the imaginary tailplane icing.
We'll agree to disagree. I think that take is wild revisionary history merely meant to soften the discomfort many in the US have of speaking "ill" of dead people, full stop.

I'd be more willing to give credit to the blame-shifting argument that they were fatigued as all get out. Lord knows they both exercised incredible levels of professional imprudence in the manner in which they managed their commute and rest. Pretty selfish behavior given the gravity of carrying unsuspecting paying passengers. To be clear, this imprudence was commonplace at the time (still is to a degree, with the open time tourney players); they were not the only ones guilty of it.

That CVR transcript you attach the tailplane space aliens potato onto (and that other guy's article) is there for all to read. You know what they talked about more than icing?
-Schedules.
-Laughing about atrocious sleep arrangements.
-Moving on from Colgan.
-Alaska Airline pipe dreams.
-Openly admitting flying with a head cold (for the FO) and wondering how to push thru before incurring out of pocket bed accomodations.

I mean, if one weren't any less charitable, you could straight up label that CVR a freggin' suicide note and you wouldn't be hyperbolic. Tailplane stall... spare me.

That CA had zero innate situational awareness, had a litany of training failures in basic aircraft control, and had no business being PIC in a 121 environment at the stage of his own demonstrated proficiency. My heart aches for the young daughter he left to be raised by a sole mother behind, but some people need to know when to fold 'em. Suggesting he had the OODA loop to be principally misanalyzing a (statistical) outlier icing aerodynamic phenomena, as opposed to yet again doing his demonstrated-in-simulator Occam shtick (aka 'panic pull', we call it fainting goat reflex in my side of flying) is just a way to ascribe a baseline of competency that he didn't possess. That matters because to admit it was my causation (the politically incorrect one) that did them in, and not the one you profer (the politically correct one), is to admit two things:

1)single standard of safety was a myth and
2) PFT was a gold rush of dreamers running with scissors, and it bit the industry finally.

That's also why barriers to entry exist in this life, or ought to.
 
We'll agree to disagree. I think that take is wild revisionary history merely meant to soften the discomfort many in the US have of speaking "ill" of dead people, full stop.

I'd be more willing to give credit to the blame-shifting argument that they were fatigued as all get out. Lord knows they both exercised incredible levels of professional imprudence in the manner in which they managed their commute and rest. Pretty selfish behavior given the gravity of carrying unsuspecting paying passengers. To be clear, this imprudence was commonplace at the time (still is to a degree, with the open time tourney players); they were not the only ones guilty of it.

That CVR transcript you attach the tailplane space aliens potato onto (and that other guy's article) is there for all to read. You know what they talked about more than icing?
-Schedules.
-Laughing about atrocious sleep arrangements.
-Moving on from Colgan.
-Alaska Airline pipe dreams.
-Openly admitting flying with a head cold (for the FO) and wondering how to push thru before incurring out of pocket bed accomodations.

I mean, if one weren't any less charitable, you could straight up label that CVR a freggin' suicide note and you wouldn't be hyperbolic. Tailplane stall... spare me.

That CA had zero innate situational awareness, had a litany of training failures in basic aircraft control, and had no business being PIC in a 121 environment at the stage of his own demonstrated proficiency. My heart aches for the young daughter he left to be raised by a sole mother behind, but some people need to know when to fold 'em. Suggesting he had the OODA loop to be principally misanalyzing a (statistical) outlier icing aerodynamic phenomena, as opposed to yet again doing his demonstrated-in-simulator Occam shtick (aka 'panic pull', we call it fainting goat reflex in my side of flying) is just a way to ascribe a baseline of competency that he didn't possess. That matters because to admit it was my causation (the politically incorrect one) that did them in, and not the one you profer (the politically correct one), is to admit two things:

1)single standard of safety was a myth and
2) PFT was a gold rush of dreamers running with scissors, and it bit the industry finally.

That's also why barriers to entry exist in this life, or ought to.
If I recall the transcript, that captain was chattering non-stop.
 
That CA had zero innate situational awareness, had a litany of training failures in basic aircraft control, and had no business being PIC in a 121 environment at the stage of his own demonstrated proficiency. My heart aches for the young daughter he left to be raised by a sole mother behind, but some people need to know when to fold 'em. Suggesting he had the OODA loop to be principally misanalyzing a (statistical) outlier icing aerodynamic phenomena, as opposed to yet again doing his demonstrated-in-simulator Occam shtick (aka 'panic pull', we call it fainting goat reflex in my side of flying) is just a way to ascribe a baseline of competency that he didn't possess. That matters because to admit it was my causation (the politically incorrect one) that did them in, and not the one you profer (the politically correct one), is to admit two things:

I agree 100%. I've always found it almost laughable at those that wanted to give the Captain "credit" for attempting to "save" the airplane from a tail stall, instead of acknowledging he panicked and locked the yoke in his lap until he hit the ground. Same thing happened with Air France 447. I've had students do the same while practicing stalls.
 
…
2) PFT was a gold rush of dreamers running with scissors, and it bit the industry finally.

That's also why barriers to entry exist in this life, or ought to.
Concur. And the industry may have just gotten bit again up in Toronto for similar lack of proficiency/self-awareness of.

Or, more simply, failing to admit statistical outliers exist naturally and can’t be controlled out of equation entirely.
 
The NTSB has issued their preliminary report on this accident which can be found here.

It documents…

An Aviation Weather Center icing probability chart indicated that at 1230, the icing probability at 3,000 ft msl was at or above 50-60% in the area over the accident flight path and that a Graphical Airmen’s Meteorological Information for moderate icing and instrument flight rule conditions were active.

It further states…

No mechanical anomalies were found with the airframe or engine during the onsite
examination or wreckage layout. Damage to the airplane was consistent with impact forces and postimpact fire.

Flight control continuity was established from the cockpit to the center fuselage near the wing roots for the aileron controls and near the aft wing spar for the elevator and rudder controls. The flight control system was fragmented outboard of the wing roots and aft of the wing spar, consistent with impact forces during the accident sequence.

I'm not terribly optimistic we will ever have a definitive answer to this accident. Icing will be a theory, but one that can't be proven either true or false.
 
I'm not terribly optimistic we will ever have a definitive answer to this accident. Icing will be a theory, but one that can't be proven either true or false.
Boy, reading the prelim it sure looks like an autopilot stall/spin in icing.

While speed was decaying almost all the way from the last descent except for a boost around 12:14. I'm guessing at that point there was either a power increase or the boots were blown. It bottomed out about 115 KCAS, settled around 135 for a couple minutes and then started decaying again, but the lowest it got was at or a hair above 90 KCAS just prior to the crash. That's a reasonable speed for final approach, though definitely on the slow end of the spectrum of "reasonable" and I'd want some flaps in at that point. However, stall in the clean configuration is 75 knots, so it shouldn't flip at 90 without a contaminated wing.

The key piece of information they left out of the prelim was the position of the icing switches. There was a T210 in the area just moments before, so hopefully they can learn something about actual weather conditions aloft from that pilot as well. But if a T210 can handle the weather, a TBM should be able to if its icing systems are operating. :dunno:
 
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