Serious question about planning

L

lowtimechi

Guest
I'm thinking about a flight starting tomorrow afternoon through sunday. The flight would be originating generally from DPA (DuPage County, Illinois) area , going to KLEX (Lexington, KY). I am not an instrument rated pilot.

I have been, of course, studying the weather, the forecasts, etc. very carefully, as there is forecasted isolated thunderstorms covering most of the lower midwest for a large part of the proposed travel window. This is only my second calendar year of flying, and in that short time I've noted that this time of year thurderstorms are often forecast which don't materialize (and some materialize where none were forecast).

I have run and re-run a plan several times with interim landing locations where one could hole up if the weather was bad or turned marginal. Also would use EFAS throughout.

The question is (and this one will probably require anyone who is going to answer to do a little online weather review indepedently), if you were a VFR pilot, would you go? If so, with what expecatations? If not, at any time, or only during the proposed hours?

I know this sounds whacky, but we all have to learn judgement as we go along, and what passes for good enough judgement to get the license just isn't enough to answer the real life closer calls. Being ruled by inconsistencies as I am, I believe both that a conservative approach automatically disqualifies all but the most clear days for x countries, but I also believe that waiting for perfect days does not do much to build time. As the African Proverb goes, 'calm seas make no skillful sailors'.

I appreciate any thoughts or feedback, flames included as long as they are fair.

Jeremiah
 
I am not going to tell you go or not go, that is not my job but your as the PIC.

I think your observation is correct about the forecast for the next few days around this area. I based in the Chicago area as well. I have plans to fly to KSMD (Fort Wayne) tomorrow to pick up my nieces for the weekend and then bring them home on Sunday. I will be watching the weather as well.

While I am an instrument rated pilot I have no intention of flying in IMC when T-storms are forecast. I would hate to find an embedded one that way. So the flight may be IFR but under VMC.

When planning a long XC like you are doing I find it important to really think through all the what ifs. Figure out where to divert to and clearly define your personal limits and then stick to them.
 
I have no background on the area or the weather for the area. However, If you have the time to wait out a storm, the flexibility to divert, and aren't affraid to leave the plane behind somewhere if you have to, I don't see a reason NOT to go.

My guess is that you'll see the clouds starting to tower, hear weather reports and other PIREPs before things get too bad.

Sounds like an adventure to me. :)
 
Scattered thunderstorms are a fact of life in the Ohio Valley this time of year. Flying early is a good way to avoid them. For an IR pilot, I usually recommend flying high -- above the tops of the base layer so you can see and avoid the buildups. Unfortunately, for a non-IR pilot, this is not a good option as there's too much chance of getting stuck on top. My suggestion would be to go early, stay below the bases, don't fly under anything black, and keep yourself in position where you can divert to a good airport at all times.

The other issue is the return on Sunday. Forecasts that far in advance are rarely accurate enough to make a good decision today. All I can suggest is have a Plan B of either staying until the weather is better or going home by other means (air carrier or rental car) and returning to pick up the plane at a later date.
 
Ron hit it on the nose.

Typical weather in the Ohio valley is scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. If you can plan on morning flight, you have a greater chance of success. You may also find morning fog, so be prepared for that, too.

Were I you, I'd have a "plan B" in case the weather doesn't permit flight.

Having said all that, I had many successful cross-country VFR flights in the area prior to getting my IR.
 
Thanks for the replies so far. I have a few hours before my go/no go decision is due, and will continue to keep an eye on the weather. Since I don't want to get on top unless I'm assured a way to get back down (there was a great thread about this a few months ago), the base might be the limiting factor in all of this, as a 300 nm flight below 2500 just does not appeal to me.

Won't hold anyone to their answer. As Scott says, I'm the PIC and responsible for this decision. I was and am trying to guage how other pilots, experienced and not, would view this set of facts and which way they'd go.

That said, I welcome further comments....
 
lowtimechi said:
a 300 nm flight below 2500 just does not appeal to me.
....

That sounds like a blast. :)

The airplane doesn't know its 1000' or 10000' above the ground. Just keep the options open. The point of no return is.. well.... exactly that. :)
 
I live in Ohio and storms are forecast just about every day this time of year. When I plan a XC I try to leave as early as possible. I have had to leave earlier than planned to beat the forecast storms. I also invested in a Garmin 396 and the weather info you get inflight is valuable to both VFR and IFR flight. After using the 396 in IMC, I don't think I would fly in IMC without one. Worth the investment for the peace of mind.
 
Flying VFR in isolated/scattered TS situations is very doable. Ron's and other's advice is excellent. If you don't get on top, you won't get stuck on top which can be very scary to a non-IFR pilot (BTDT). If cloud bases permit it, then running VFR below them (avoiding rain shafts and black bottoms) is OK. However, as bases go down the haze tends to increase and visibility goes down. Going at 2500 might not be comfortable, but if conditions permit 3500 that might not be so bad.
If you're not willing to fly when there is TS potential, you will miss out on a lot of flying. The main thing is to have an out. You'll be in pretty close proximity to an airport at about any point, so if you stay below bases you'll have that out.
Make your PIC decision and let us know what you do.
 
jerimiah as Scott has said we can't make the decision for you and wether I would go or not is irrelevant. The Go-No Go is an evolving process. There is no shame in being conservative as you progress you will determine your own comfort level. Welcome to the board.
 
This time of year the midwest airmass is unstable and stagnant with lifted indices of -6 or greater. Most of your flying will be in the clear. As long as you are willing to divert and stay and wait, you will be fine.

I do agree that a 3 hours flight at 2500 or less will be brutal (as in under the CLass B shelf below 2900). But if you fly in the AM, you will be doing 6500 most of the time. Very sweet.

If you have to divert, Choose Peoria, I have a hangar for you, we'll do lunch.
 
I don't think I can add anything to the wisdom expressed by those above. It is really about personal comfort levels. Flying is supposed to be fun but if you're sweating buckets and under stress it ain't fun.

I'm based at DPA as well. Let's get together some day.
 
Things I learned on this trip:

  • It’s OK to backtrack to get below a forming ceiling, even if you think you might be OK to get down at your destination. Better safe than sorry, and the hindsight you have when you get to clear skies at the destination fades quickly.
  • Scud running through class G for any distance is just no fun.
  • Putnam County is one of the nicest FBOs you will find, and has cheap fuel ($3.47)
  • Clouds at 6000 feet can develop vertical height faster than a 180 hp plane can climb.
  • If you descend and divert to avoid said vertically developing clouds, make sure you get well away from where you believe they will be when you get below the deck; if you find yourself a half mile from the edge of the shadow on the ground, your best and only option is to fly directly to the nearest edge and hope your passenger doesn’t freak out from the turbulence.
  • Sometimes you have to choose hot and bumpy below the ceiling with favorable winds, and cooler and smooth above the deck with a headwind. Passenger comfort is important, and in a small cockpit they’ll notice you unplugging their mic cord.
7. Waiting just a few hours extra to depart can really make a difference. Though scuzzy on my return to Northern Illinois on Sunday evening, I felt better knowing that the big nasty had already moved east.
 
Sounds like you had a lot of fun. Sunday's WX was interesting. I cancelled my flight to Indiana. I could have made it there but my return would have been delayed by many hours. It was easier to drive.

But glad that you got some real good experience. Long XCs like that really are what flying is about. It is amazing to see how the WX really changes on those distances. Having the ability to analyze and adapt is key.
 
Sounds like it was a great learning experience, and enumerating the things learned is a great idea. I'd also recommend taking this opportunity to take these lessons and flights and update your written personal minimums. As Adam said, welcome to the board!
 
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smigaldi said:
But glad that you got some real good experience. Long XCs like that really are what flying is about. It is amazing to see how the WX really changes on those distances. Having the ability to analyze and adapt is key.

My thoughts exactly... I think you made a good choice to go and see what it would be like. Also, great job on writing up your experiences. It's fun for us to see what happened, and it definitely will help you identify issues/problems and possible solutions next time.
 
lowtimechi said:
I'm thinking about a flight starting tomorrow afternoon through sunday. The flight would be originating generally from DPA (DuPage County, Illinois) area , going to KLEX (Lexington, KY). I am not an instrument rated pilot.

Glad you had a good trip... My first long cross country was MSN->LEX. It was in November, so I fretted like mad about the weather, but was blessed with an absolutely beautiful weekend with a strong high-pressure system in the area. Altimeter settings ranged from 30.69 up to 30.84!

The big trick with this sort of thing is to not get set in your ways. Have lots of outs. A biggie is simply to leave early enough that if the weather worsens you can land, rent a car, and still make your destination in plenty of time. If you do manage to fly the whole way, well, you've got some extra sightseeing time on your hands. If not, no big deal, you still got there. That is the way to go, even once you get your IR.
 
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