L
lowtimechi
Guest
I'm thinking about a flight starting tomorrow afternoon through sunday. The flight would be originating generally from DPA (DuPage County, Illinois) area , going to KLEX (Lexington, KY). I am not an instrument rated pilot.
I have been, of course, studying the weather, the forecasts, etc. very carefully, as there is forecasted isolated thunderstorms covering most of the lower midwest for a large part of the proposed travel window. This is only my second calendar year of flying, and in that short time I've noted that this time of year thurderstorms are often forecast which don't materialize (and some materialize where none were forecast).
I have run and re-run a plan several times with interim landing locations where one could hole up if the weather was bad or turned marginal. Also would use EFAS throughout.
The question is (and this one will probably require anyone who is going to answer to do a little online weather review indepedently), if you were a VFR pilot, would you go? If so, with what expecatations? If not, at any time, or only during the proposed hours?
I know this sounds whacky, but we all have to learn judgement as we go along, and what passes for good enough judgement to get the license just isn't enough to answer the real life closer calls. Being ruled by inconsistencies as I am, I believe both that a conservative approach automatically disqualifies all but the most clear days for x countries, but I also believe that waiting for perfect days does not do much to build time. As the African Proverb goes, 'calm seas make no skillful sailors'.
I appreciate any thoughts or feedback, flames included as long as they are fair.
Jeremiah
I have been, of course, studying the weather, the forecasts, etc. very carefully, as there is forecasted isolated thunderstorms covering most of the lower midwest for a large part of the proposed travel window. This is only my second calendar year of flying, and in that short time I've noted that this time of year thurderstorms are often forecast which don't materialize (and some materialize where none were forecast).
I have run and re-run a plan several times with interim landing locations where one could hole up if the weather was bad or turned marginal. Also would use EFAS throughout.
The question is (and this one will probably require anyone who is going to answer to do a little online weather review indepedently), if you were a VFR pilot, would you go? If so, with what expecatations? If not, at any time, or only during the proposed hours?
I know this sounds whacky, but we all have to learn judgement as we go along, and what passes for good enough judgement to get the license just isn't enough to answer the real life closer calls. Being ruled by inconsistencies as I am, I believe both that a conservative approach automatically disqualifies all but the most clear days for x countries, but I also believe that waiting for perfect days does not do much to build time. As the African Proverb goes, 'calm seas make no skillful sailors'.
I appreciate any thoughts or feedback, flames included as long as they are fair.
Jeremiah