Second Opinions on An IFR flight for this weekend?

[AA5Bman]

Hey everyone, I’ve had my IFR rating for about 10 years but have been non-current for most of that time. I recently got current again and have about 750 total hours, but very little actual IMC. I’m considering a trip this weekend from Boise (KBOI) to Coos Bay (KOTH) departing Saturday morning the 23rd, returning Monday the 25th. I don’t have a ton of experience with potentially IFR weather, and wanted to bounce this trip off you all to see if you see any red flags. I’ll be flying a NA, non-FIKI Cessna 205.

Departing and returning to Boise will be fine. Arriving and departing Coos Bay will probably be MVFR or mid-level ceiling IFR, and that’s okay with me, I’d plan on flying that segment IFR. The part that is giving me a little anxiety is crossing the coastal Oregon mountains anywhere west of a line drawn from Bend to Altamont. The MEA are all around 9,000’ or higher, which (I’ve been watching the weather) has been right at or slightly above freezing level.

Looking at the forecast for Medford and Altamont, I am thinking the weather there will be partly to mostly cloudy with ceilings high enough to fly under the cloud bases VFR, and then to pick up an IFR clearance for the arrival to Coos Bay, with the opposite going out (depart IFR and cancel before the mountains), but this is the part where I’m unsure. A concerned would be to depart IFR and find yourself in solid IMC with no VMC breaks such that it’s impossible to cancel before having to bump up into the freezing layer.

For those of you with more regional or Pacific Northwest experience, do you think I am interpreting the weather situation correctly? Do you have any other recommended routes or considerations? What do you think is the feasibility of this plan? Thanks you in advance.

 

[FORANE]

My rule with icing potential is to have a solid "out" planned before getting into the ice in the first place.
My preferred out is forecast MEA's or MORA's above freezing with at least a couple thousand feet to spare.
Doesn't sound like you have that.

 

[Rgbeard]

You certainly don't want to get into ice. It happens quickly, and you need a viable plan-B when it does. Climb/descend/turn around.

If you can make it across the "high spots" in VMC (whether on an IFR plan or not), then the rest should be an easy-peasy IFR trip.

You won't be in ice going from Medford to Coos. You'll probably have a great chance to use your newly resharpened skills.

Sounds to me like you're a well-thinking cautious pilot. Enjoy!

 

[AA5Bman]

@FORANE I agree, hence the question, but I think what I’m getting at is that that segment can and should probably be flown VFR. Maybe it’s really not an IFR question but a question about forecasting VFR with high enough ceilings to get over the mountain portion of the flight.

 

[PPC1052]

@FORANE I agree, hence the question, but I think what I’m getting at is that that segment can and should probably be flown VFR.

I would just suggest that what you really want is to fly that segment in VMC, not IMC, but it would be completely fine to fly it IFR. If, while on an IFR flight plan, and talking to the controller, you can get help if you have unacceptable IMC above the flight levels to help you accomplish your plan B, and get other assistance. In other words, I would not hesitate to fly the whole route on IFR rather than pick up the IFR clearance after that segment, with the idea that I would execute a change of plans for that segment if necessary if unfavorable conditions exist. Flying it IFR would not be an obstacle to flying it safely. It would make it easier for you to change your plans if you need to.

 

[luvflyin]

I would just suggest that what you really want is to fly that segment in VMC, not IMC, but it would be completely fine to fly it IFR. If, while on an IFR flight plan, and talking to the controller, you can get help if you have unacceptable IMC above the flight levels to help you accomplish your plan B, and get other assistance. In other words, I would not hesitate to fly the whole route on IFR rather than pick up the IFR clearance after that segment, with the idea that I would execute a change of plans for that segment if necessary if unfavorable conditions exist. Flying it IFR would not be an obstacle to flying it safely. It would make it easier for you to change your plans if you need to.

Yeah. You would have established Communication with ATC if IFR. Good chance you could also be VFR on Flight Following. If you needed to Cancel to keep from having to go higher than you could I doubt very much if they’d just say Radar Service Terminated and drop you. But it could happen. You’d be left with declaring an emergency to make them help you. Then you’d better be prepared to explain how you got yourself into that predicament after it was over with.

 

[AA5Bman]

I would just suggest that what you really want is to fly that segment in VMC, not IMC, but it would be completely fine to fly it IFR. If, while on an IFR flight plan, and talking to the controller, you can get help if you have unacceptable IMC above the flight levels to help you accomplish your plan B, and get other assistance. In other words, I would not hesitate to fly the whole route on IFR rather than pick up the IFR clearance after that segment, with the idea that I would execute a change of plans for that segment if necessary if unfavorable conditions exist. Flying it IFR would not be an obstacle to flying it safely. It would make it easier for you to change your plans if you need to.

I think you make a good point. There are a couple scenarios I can imagine here that give me some pause, how would you handle these?

- You're tooling along on an IFR flight plan at 10,000' very likely in VMC over the eastern Oregon desert. As you approach the coastal mountains you see that clouds are stacking up against the mountains. The tops of the overcast are below you, but there are cumulous-type buildups that are rising to and above your level.

In this scenario, I assume you would request deviations around the buildups and then when it is time, descend through the layer to the destination. Not that tough (presuming the tops of the overcast are below the freezing level, i.e. 7-8k'.

- In the same scenario, instead of seeing clouds stacking up where the overcast is below you, what would you do if you come up to the mountains and you see that you have a huge wall of clouds in front of you?

In this scenario, I assume that if this wall of clouds extends to the ground and high above you, I'm guessing you'd have to cancel and turn around / land and wait, because there would be no way to get through without being in the ice. If there's a high enough ceiling to descend and fly under the ceiling, I assume you'd pretty much have to cancel IFR and proceed under the ceiling VFR. This might put you in the situation where you need to pick back up a new clearance airborne to get to the destination, and that would likely require climbing back into the clouds (at a lower MEA like 5,000' which puts you back into the clouds but not into the icing).

Is that how you'd handle these scenarios or is there a better way?

 

[PPC1052]

In this scenario, I assume you would request deviations around the buildups and then when it is time, descend through the layer to the destination. Not that tough (presuming the tops of the overcast are below the freezing level, i.e. 7-8k'.

That sounds like a good option. Tell the controller you need a turn to the left or the right around the buildup.

- In the same scenario, instead of seeing clouds stacking up where the overcast is below you, what would you do if you come up to the mountains and you see that you have a huge wall of clouds in front of you?

In this scenario, I assume that if this wall of clouds extends to the ground and high above you, I'm guessing you'd have to cancel and turn around / land and wait, because there would be no way to get through without being in the ice. If there's a high enough ceiling to descend and fly under the ceiling, I assume you'd pretty much have to cancel IFR and proceed under the ceiling VFR. This might put you in the situation where you need to pick back up a new clearance airborne to get to the destination, and that would likely require climbing back into the clouds (at a lower MEA like 5,000' which puts you back into the clouds but not into the icing).

Is that how you'd handle these scenarios or is there a better way?

I think that makes sense, too. I would be leery about canceling and flying under the clouds if the reason you have to cancel is because its below the MEA. But I say that not being at all familiar with the area. If there is enough clearance between the ground and the ceiling, you should be ok. So, if you are familiar enough with the area, maybe you can make that call. But I am no expert in mountain flying, and accordingly, I would personally not feel confident if I couldn't fly the airway. I don't mean to suggest that is correct for everyone though.

 

[AA5Bman]

If there is enough clearance between the ground and the ceiling, you should be ok. So, if you are familiar enough with the area, maybe you can make that call. But I am no expert in mountain flying, and accordingly, I would personally not feel confident if I couldn't fly the airway. I don't mean to suggest that is correct for everyone though.

I'm not familiar with the area, but this also doesn't bother me too bad. I do do a lot of mountain flying, but the reason I'm comfortable is just that an overcast layer below the MEAs could still leave 4-5,000 foot ceilings over the valley floors. They won't necessarily be that high, but could be. Obviously you wouldn't proceed down a valley that as 1,000' ceilings!

 

[Jim Carpenter]

A few thoughts:
Requesting deviations around build-ups is common practice, even the airliners do it routinely. Though, you'd like to have an idea that you'll be OK on the other side.
You wouldn't need to cancel to request a diversion to another airport, say Bend, Redmond, etc., just let the controller know what you want/need to do. They may ask you why, weather ahead, potty break, etc., no big deal.
You're right, cancelling IFR so you can go lower underneath the ceiling might work, but can be a bad idea sometimes, especially in mountains and unknown areas.
If weather looks iffy on your departure day, you might consider just planning to stop short of the "big" mountains, at Bend, Redmond, etc., take a break, re-fuel, reassess the weather,, wait a couple hours, whatever. A good choice for the "stop-short" destination might have car rentals available, leaving one more option.
In some places, state highway department road cameras, available online, can give you a good clue as to sky conditions where there may not be AWOS or ASOS stations. This should, of course, be used with a very prudent grain of salt, but those cameras are another good tool that can be used.

 

[Jim Carpenter]

Today (Saturday) looks great for westbound trip, Monday morning not bad for return leg, maybe coastal fog. Let us know with a pirep, how the trip went!