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Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by Adam Weiss, Dec 10, 2017.
Has anyone on POA actually put a deposit on a Raptor?
I think we've got one on here. Met two at SnF that had deposits. Both were in the 400 + group. Even if half bail on buying one, it'll be a long time before going to the factory and completing their aircraft.
The silly truck ?
I wouldn't put a deposit on it when there isn't even a prototype yet...
I thought this thread was gonna be about bird poop on someone’s windscreen...
I think Peter is earnest and I have interest and follow his videos, but like the Icon, I think the price is going to have to inflate. If he can carry it off and it flies well, I think $120K is a steal, $150K a good deal... but I think it’ll approach $200K (or more) and still require 2 weeks of owner assembly.
I'd be feeling like a test pilot at this point.
IMO anyone who puts a deposit on a not yet built and flying aircraft should consider himself an investor who, if he loses that deposit he can write it off. So many promises, so many failures.
I've been following his weekly videos as well. Once you hear something it cannot be unheard. Every time he pronounces a C or a K it sounds like he has extra spit that he needs to get rid of. He has also admitted in his questions and answers video that the price will most likely go up but he didn't say how far North of 120K. I hope he does well. I wasn't aware that the owner would have to finish the airplane.
Edit: I guess I never read:
Everyone who purchases an aircraft will be required to spend a 2 or 3 week period at a construction center to perform work on their aircraft in order to fulfill the 51% rule for construction of an experimental kit aircraft. This will allow you to have the Experimental certificate in your name and subsequently be able to perform maintenance on your aircraft. Construction centers may eventually be set up on each of the continents making it easier for this requirement to be met.
I’ll take it at $300k with 2 months of owner assembly if they actually meet their specs.
I don’t think price is what will be holding the raptor back.
Legal requirement for EA, no?
I agree. Talked to the co-owner of Velocity earlier this year. He said there's no way Raptor can produce at kit with those specs for the price they're projecting. He brought up the many problems they'll experience in testing phase, especially with an auto engine conversion.
If you read the price sheet, the actual cost is $176,311.46 but the projected customer cost is: $130,000.00
I'm not so sure he can knock off 46k in discounts for bulk buy of parts from his suppliers. He still has to make a profit and pay his overhead so maybe the parts cost is inflated a little to reflect that.
Yeah, I edited my post.
If I see one more video about making a mold!!!
He adds "pressurization cost" at 15K. There is no breakdown which is perhaps one of his methods to pay his people and overhead for the plane. Its a cool concept and I hope it does well. Who can fault a guy who wants to provide a good product at a reasonable cost?
The engine will be adjustable up/down as necessary to adjust drive belt tension. That seems like a really great idea... especially if you care about W&B. I mean, come on- you change out a transponder or take off the front wheel pant on a 172 and you need to do a new W&B. Let’s just relocate the single heaviest component of the entire aircraft so we can keep our rubber bands tight. Nice work. On the othe4 hand, we’re probably talking about a couple mm of movement of one end of the block, sooo.... no big deal? The whole Raptor concept seems at once revolutionary and naïve.
I'll believe this one when I see it. Not holding my breath...
I'd put a deposit on one of these:
But I'm not really expecting the aircraft to ever come on the market. Certainly not with the specifications/price that is currently advertised.
Last time I saw a cool looking airframe with great marketing but no viable engine Jim bede was marketing it at a great price also.............
I put a deposit on this: https://www.eliomotors.com/
No sure I've got extra monies around for the Raptor right now.
Yeah, what happened to that thing anyway? I was waiting to put a deposit on one of those.
I had been following Elio Motors for a while, but gave up after a few years of no progress. If they went into production, I'd buy one in a heartbeat. Looks like a great car for commuting.
Bringing this thread back on topic, I'm not holding my breath for the Raptor to make it to production (let alone meeting the specifications at the price point advertised). Hopefully I'm wrong.
Great idea, but the wait has been too long.
Raptor is around. They stopped building anymore though.
They're talking about this Raptor.
62 inch wide cabin, 5 passengers (presumably each with some baggage), pressurized, 230 kt cruise, with a converted automobile diesel engine, using 7 gph.
The only thing missing is payment in Bitcoin.
There are any number of aviation companies, with resources undoubtedly much greater than this enterprise, that have tried to tackle a smaller solution set than this...and failed.
It hasn't gone unnoticed that this bit of vaporware is being discussed on the same day someone revived the Evolution(ary) Dead End thread. And those folks had a tremendous depth of technical and commercial experience to draw on.
Is it really vaporware? They are rather open and have pretty solid documentation of where they are in the process.
I do think the math on the price, and some of the physics are suspect. But vaporware? That is not one claim I would make.
That depends on your definition of "vaporware". IMO, the most accurate definition would be:
Software or hardware that has been advertised but is not yet available to buy, either because it is only a concept or because it is still being written or designed.
In this case it's definitely the latter. And while there may be no ill intent, there are a number of unknowns about this design. They never did a prototype so who knows how much it's going to weigh or if it can even fly. And that's without considering using a auto conversion engine.
I wish him the best, but there's no way I would put a dime towards this until there's at least a (full scale) flying version.
It doesn't take a genius to take a proven design (Velocity XL) and TRY and covert it to a pressurized model. They're just reinventing the wheel here. Look at the controls, landing gear, spar, etc. and compare it to an XL. Very similar. Having a former Velocity employee probably has a bit to do with that.
5 years and no flying prototype? Dan Maher had a flying example and kits going out the door within 8 months. You'd think with a well thought out design they'd realize the canard was too small. I'm not an aerodynamicist and I could see that. Sure enough, the RC model couldn't keep its nose up at slow speed and crashed because it was too small. Coke bottle fuse? Yeah, that reduces drag in the transonic regime but has no benefits for the speeds below that.
I predict the aircraft will end up costing 220-230K and will cruise no more than 230 kts (not 300) and they'll have no more than 15 completions per year. So, if you're number 500 + in the deposit line, it's gonna be a long time before you get your aircraft. On top of all that, you'll have all the usual quirks that will arise in an auto engine conversion.
I really hope they prove me wrong but I've seen too many new kits and certified designs in the past 30 years make promises they can't keep and end up closing the doors.
I think the physics to achieve a rather lofty combination of performance expectations is unlikely to be kind to them. Weight is the enemy of lift, and it's not possible to generate lift without drag. The size and weight of airframe required to lift 5 people + baggage + fuel is not trivial. Neither is the form drag of a 62 inch wide cabin (unless everyone in it are prone).
And if all that wasn't enough the Diesel auto engine conversion alone is a potential company killer. It's far from simple to achieve a satisfactory commercially viable result.
But even Airbus has come up short on occasion.
On the Elio...
Check out their Facebook comments.
Whoever is composing their replies can be a real comedian at times!
You are more optimistic than I am. I'm thinking it will be north of $300k. It won't hit 300 kts unless even more is spent on the engine, putting it in a much higher price range.
If they hit 230+ kts and $250k I think it will sell quite a bit. Those numbers are far better than other options. Add pressurization and the competition will be crushed.
I'm doubting they pull it all together at a price and reliability point that people will accept. This would be a nice one to be wrong on though.
What's the background of the team developing this? Do they have a track record of developing successful aircraft, and how close to budget and schedule were they on previous projects?
I see no way they can get that airframe to go that fast on that little fuel.
Maybe I missed it, but their page calls out a stall speed of 65kts. FAR 23.49(c.1) calls out 61kts for single engine aircraft, so how is the Raptor getting around that?
Ah, thanks. Now it reminds me even more of Jim Bede for some reason...
Looks similar to a Lancair IV stall speed at 65kts.
The Elio thing is really weird and I'm pretty sure that is a niche car for people who want to drive that long distances on the freeway. My Rav4 gets 70MPGe at current gas prices its about 4-5 times the size and has a hitch.. Goes 100 freeway miles on the coldest of days (around here). So unless you plan on driving long distances in something slightly smaller than a golf cart for twice the price, who is the ELIO niche?