Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Sac Arrow, Feb 16, 2015.
Sorry for what I can only imagine will be a painful loss.
That sucks. Sorry you're having to go through that.
James, I'm so sorry to hear this, please keep us informed. I can't imagine the pressure of juggling this mess and the responsibility you have to your team. I personally was hit with a major health setback, came out of the blue. No warning, sometimes (s)hit really just does happen. And we power through it! Go James!
Go man, we're pulling for you!
A more complete news story.
I'm encouraged by the interaction with the FedGov and our state officials so far. My congressman has gotten involved proactively and is helping to provide solutions.
That is terrible news. Hopefully you will get through this okay and recover. It sounds like you have a positive outlook and will survive okay.
Very sorry to hear this. Damn.
Tough one, James. I was telling my family about this last night. Hang in there.
11 days since my last post here. This disease is spreading like wildfire around the country in a frightening manner. 149 confirmed cases with 5 - 10 new cases daily. Lots of commercial flocks but also wild birds and backyard flocks being affected.
81 in Minnesota
30 in Iowa
9 in Wisconsin
6 in South Dakota
3 in California
We're at about 23 million egg laying hens and four million turkeys nationally that have been hit. It appears that facilities that are depopulated, cleaned and disinfected will be held back from repopulating until this settles down. Put it another way - out of every dozen eggs you bought two weeks ago, one of those is no longer able to be produced.
There are another 40+ million at risk due to proximity.
This disease is incredibly efficient. We see effects in just a few birds in a flock of 200,000 and in 8 - 10 days we have 95%+ mortality.
My team has pulled together and we have been working cooperatively with state and federal officials to solve the problems in front of us and the first affected farm will be depopulated in a few days. The bigger site will take another two weeks. My heart is broken for the birds, and for what my team is having to go through. It is difficult to see something you've worked so hard on be brought to its knees. As a company we are faced with the question of how to keep our 280 team members gainfully employed as we work through the federal indemnity program with an extended period of no production. It is going to take a few years to get back up to full speed.
I wish there was something to say or do to help relieve the current, and forthcoming, pain. Hang in there the best you and your team can.
Wow! James this is terrible. Sorry to hear that this happenend. What a tragedy. You are doing a nice job with the updates.
This is a pretty big deal. I'm surprised that it doesn't get any media coverage. This will have far reaching effects to consumers as well, in addition to the devastation experienced by the farmers.
Eggman, I was down in Creston last week as saw the news reports. Thought of you and was hoping you weren't involved. Coming from an ag background I fully understand the pain of not only losing the income, but you do have connection with livestock. My best to you. I don't know how, but if there is something I can do to help I'd be glad to.
That is a serious understatement.....
I bet egg futures are going wild on the exchange..
Yep. This is what traders die for. It will add to the already high inflation for protein.
These stories don't appear to be making the rounds here, at least not so far.
I see the occasional story on the internet but nothing big. I probably wouldn't notice if I didn't know about JT's sad situation. Hope they can come up with something to stop it. Seems like I read somewhere that it should lessen once warm weather comes, but they are worried about next winter.
Chart of short-term futures:
Yeah they're not in our local media here, either. It was nice to see that AP picked up the story, but few people read the AP directly.
I sat down for an hour the other day with the New York Times. The stories are coming, this just happened so fast.
Big news in Iowa. The media is all over it.
Is there a danger to the public if they consume eggs or meat tainted with avian flu, or is the problem one where it causes the birds to die and because it spreads, could wipe out the entire population?
I think James said alot in post 249.......
I would also guess that this will get alot worse before it get's better for the entire egg industry in the U.S.
It will be interesting to see if they can find enough replacement chicks /birds that are disease free to replace the destroyed ones....
Houston radio news is talking like you should not plan on Turkey for Thanksgiving this year if this continues....this could really decimate the food process in this country.
As I understand it, humans do not catch it through food that is cooked. The problem is that it is spread by other birds, so it isn't easily confined. Anyway, I don't know where the end is. It certainly could wipe out the entire population, I would think. But then, I'm not the expert, so maybe there is something going on to stem the tide that I'm not aware of.
Employees in affected operations with direct contact are being screened and so far no transmissions to humans have been noted. Once a farm is detected positive the shell eggs can no longer enter commerce and must be diverted to further processing for pasteurization. There is a special pasteurization procedure that the further processing plants must use that ensures the virus is destroyed.
Warm weather greatly helps to slow the spread of the virus in the wild because it slows its viability out of a host, however millions of mallards are set to migrate this fall and they have been shown to carry the virus while not getting ill and shedding it to the environment for 14 days. Ugh....
I'm not sure that I would trade a Chinese exchange futures product based upon happenings in the US. Eggs haven't been traded on the CBOT since the '70s I believe.
It's interesting how self-centered we are as a species. Everyone has read a number of fictional pandemic stories about the virus that comes to wipe out humans, and the resulting "zombie" stories never fail to entertain... but not too many pandemic fiction novels are set in a pandemic in the food supply.
It does kinda make me wonder if this outbreak is natural... or sinister.....
There is a team of APHIS epidemiologists working on the who/how/what of this outbreak and there will be indications on how it propagated. Much too early to speculate though.
Sorry to hear about the major troubles there eggman.
Your dillema stirs up old not-so-fond memories of the brucellosis outbreak during the seventies here in TX. We had a beautiful cow herd of maybe 550+ cows that had to be tested. Id say better than half of them got a 'B' branded on their jaw and were sent to slaughter.
The government payout on them wasn't enough to replace what they were worth, I remember that. It was a hard deal all around.
I appreciate all the kind words here. This hasn't been fun.
Oh man, I feel for you and what you and others in the industry are going through.
James. Do you have an idea of what price increases as a percentage both wholesale and retail this will cause? I don't know what an average price for a dozens eggs goes for in the supermarket as I buy all of mine from a local farmer with his own flock.
No way to tell as we are in very uncharted waters. May/June are traditionally the low points for the egg market and even then are seeing wholesale prices rise very quickly. On 4/22 the price for "breaking" eggs was $0.65/dozen. A few loads traded today for $1.80/dozen. No idea what this fall will bring when the demand is usually at its peak.
^^^^Great info. Thanks. I did start to see some of this in the news last week, but it was great to get the heads up. If food markets act like energy markets, and others, then the price of other protein like chicken, beef, fish, pork, soy, etc will also rise, correct?
Here beef prices are very high - it's mostly due to the fact that many herds of cattle have been culled because of the drought. Chicken and pork have so far been apparently unaffected.
There's a lot more at risk here than higher egg prices.
Five million chickens crammed into one Iowa "farm"? Barges full of ideology-infected apes floating in the Mediterranean and Andamon Seas clamoring for food and shelter?
Greed and ignorance are coming home to roost on this once-fair planet. Mother Nature is always striving to keep a balance although the mullahs, popes and those who industrialize the lives of fellow creatures make it difficult for her sometimes.
James, New York has banned all fowl from the fairs statewide as a precaution against avian flu. Because my state is famous for knee-jerk reactions, I'm wondering whether you think this was justified or over-the-top.
I know a lot of local kids are really bummed out that their birds won't be able to compete, but I'm also inclined to think the downside risk is so enormous that it probably makes sense not to take the chance. The fact that a lot of other states that are less known for catastrophizing every issue that comes along are also banning fowl competitions at their fairs also leads me to believe that the New York ban makes sense.
But I, of course, am no expert. I'm curious for your expert opinion.