Plane Prices

Ventucky Red

Ventucky Red

Pattern Altitude
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Jan 9, 2013
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Jon
Anyone here knowledgeable on where the market is going? If you're selling, sell now, and if buying, hold off for a while?

Some of the prices I am seeing are crazy-nuts..

Care to opine?
 
I don't think prices will ever come down on planes. I sold my 172 a couple years ago when I thought the market was crazy high, I told myself I better take the money and run. If I would have held out and sold it today I could have got $30,000 more than when I sold it.
 
High demand and very limited supply has caused a bubble. Small trainers have doubled in price over the last year. Eclipse 500s have increased about 50%. Some models are relatively unaffected. The problem as I see it is that when the airline industry hits it's next big obstacle and they stop hiring pilots (...sigh) and the flight training market collapses, all the folks who paid today's high prices will be upside down and are going to lose a lot of money.

Prices on the Eclipse 500 depends mostly on whether the factory is in bankruptcy this week.
 
I'd like to know the same thing. Bought a Cherokee 180 last year for 33k. Great paint, STOL kit, leather interior aside from carpet is great...just wrong color so i plan on dying it. Been debating on whether or not to upgrade the radios out of narco era or cash it in. As I can fly my dad's pa32 whenever. But the little 180 is fun to fly
 
New job prospects with hefty raise so I've been keeping my eye out, lately. C150s are being listed at crazy prices compared to last year. I had a nice opportunity on a Citabria late last year but balked on it as being "not at the right time." If I keep waiting it will never be the right time.
 
dreyna14 said:
If I keep waiting it will never be the right time.
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^truth
Opportunity usually only knocks once. Sometime you gotta just go for it. I did that on all 3 of the planes I've bought and thus far I haven't regretted any of them.
 
If you want a high performance and low TCO E/AB is the ONLY game in town.Why people throw $80k at a 50 year old 172 is beyond me.
 
I don’t see how people are doing it. My grocery bill has gone up $30-40 a week, gas has almost doubled, my power bill is up, the same car I bought 3 years ago is almost 10k more now. House prices have gone up 100k from a couple years ago. Where the heck are people getting the money to afford these airplanes?? I got my usual 3% raise at work, inflation was like 6% so basically I got a pay cut! I’m certainly not going to be buying any airplanes are the current prices so guess I’ll slowly be pushed out of the hobby.
 
I see two dynamics here. Statistically, there are essentially 0 4-seat 180hp type aircraft being produced each year. I know it’s not actually 0 but pretty close.

the past 24-months have seen a huge influx in dollars in people’s pockets and free time. Remote work and WFH has given people time back that they could use to go flying.

The pilot shortage and influx or airline career training is an even bigger factor.

Dwindling supply of aircraft, increased demand for airline training and time for lapsed pilots/pilots on the fence drive what looks like a bubble to me.

Rates are jumping up over the next 12-months, economy will slow and I think stimulus will be tapered.

Planes, boats, snowmobiles, 2nd homes are all discretionary. These items correct.
 
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Grum.Man said:
I don’t see how people are doing it. My grocery bill has gone up $30-40 a week, gas has almost doubled, my power bill is up, the same car I bought 3 years ago is almost 10k more now. House prices have gone up 100k from a couple years ago. Where the heck are people getting the money to afford these airplanes?? I got my usual 3% raise at work, inflation was like 6% so basically I got a pay cut! I’m certainly not going to be buying any airplanes are the current prices so guess I’ll slowly be pushed out of the hobby.
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The problem is that while this is happening, banks are giving loans for 40yr old toy assets and houses at 3-4% rates. Basically the bank takes the inflation hit. Feels like a bubble.
 
kujo806 said:
The problem is that while this is happening, banks are giving loans for 40yr old toy assets and houses at 3-4% rates. Basically the bank takes the inflation hit. Feels like a bubble.
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You still have to make the payment, afford to maintain and fly it, and cover big repairs.
 
Grum.Man said:
I don’t see how people are doing it. My grocery bill has gone up $30-40 a week, gas has almost doubled, my power bill is up, the same car I bought 3 years ago is almost 10k more now. House prices have gone up 100k from a couple years ago. Where the heck are people getting the money to afford these airplanes?? I got my usual 3% raise at work, inflation was like 6% so basically I got a pay cut! I’m certainly not going to be buying any airplanes are the current prices so guess I’ll slowly be pushed out of the hobby.
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The good thing is my (and your) house payment hasn't gone up. Neither has the price of my (paid for) car. Given that those are two of the bigger expenses in my life, that 3% raise (or whatever the powers that be at my company decide) will probably keep me cashflow neutral this year relative to last. All I have to do to get ahead of the curve is substitute a $1.25 peanut butter sandwich or can of tuna for a $10 restaurant lunch a couple of times a week and I'm ahead of the game.
 
kyleb said:
The good thing is my (and your) house payment hasn't gone up. Neither has the price of my (paid for) car. Given that those are two of the bigger expenses in my life, that 3% raise (or whatever the powers that be at my company decide) will probably keep me cashflow neutral this year relative to last. All I have to do to get ahead of the curve is substitute a $1.25 peanut butter sandwich or can of tuna for a $10 restaurant lunch a couple of times a week and I'm ahead of the game.
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Except that everything else IS going up and big.
Gas price nationwide is expected to go up about 70 cents per gallon in a few months. Food is up, and going higher. Insurance on your home and car will go up due to increased prices of those two necessities. Clothes, shoes, and EVERYTHING else is going up, not to mention 100LL. So tell me again how have a peanut butter sandwich twice a week is going to negate the Biden economy.
I doubt anyone not a government employee is going to be cash flow neutral in the coming years. I guess its going to be like Funemployment???
 
Grum.Man said:
I don’t see how people are doing it. My grocery bill has gone up $30-40 a week, gas has almost doubled, my power bill is up, the same car I bought 3 years ago is almost 10k more now. House prices have gone up 100k from a couple years ago. Where the heck are people getting the money to afford these airplanes?? I got my usual 3% raise at work, inflation was like 6% so basically I got a pay cut! I’m certainly not going to be buying any airplanes are the current prices so guess I’ll slowly be pushed out of the hobby.
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Nor do I.
According to various income calculators I am in the top 5 % based on our income last year… doesn’t feel like and I am just sitting low here trying to wait out our current glorious attempts at “building back better” hoping for some good old 2016 stability.
I truly have no idea how people manage to buy all that stuff …unless they just keep borrowing like crazy hoping for inflation to pay off their debts.
 
If you look at the price of new radios, parts, etc. for certificated planes, it helps understand why prices are so high. Also, take a look at what a new pickup truck costs these days.
 
How much you hang on to is just as important as how much you make. Anyway, try looking forward on a fixed income. It looks real grim with inflation, taxes, and dropping stock market. I was watching for the right plane or partnership to come available. But probably not now. It would need to be a perfect fit for me to be interested, now.
 
somorris said:
If you look at the price of new radios, parts, etc. for certificated planes, it helps understand why prices are so high. Also, take a look at what a new pickup truck costs these days.
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But it’s NEW! Not a 50+ year old airplane. I get the ones that have been updated with new paint, interior, engine, avionics and are selling for 100k plus. It’s the 150’s with old paint and engines that are selling for 35+ the old 172s for 60k and J3 cubs for 45k. Bonkers if you ask me.
 
Wagondriver said:
Except that everything else IS going up and big.
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No doubt. But if half of my monthly expenses are basically fixed (home and car expenses), and everything else goes up 6%, which was the premise of one of the comments, then the average is 3%, which is in the range of a normal annual raise for many people, including me. Given that I'm not buying a car or a house, I'm not gonna lose any buying power. I realize it is a death of a thousand cuts, but I'm not gonna get too wrapped around the axle about a year of it after the economic lift we've experienced since ~2010.
 
Grum.Man said:
But it’s NEW! Not a 50+ year old airplane. I get the ones that have been updated with new paint, interior, engine, avionics and are selling for 100k plus. It’s the 150’s with old paint and engines that are selling for 35+ the old 172s for 60k and J3 cubs for 45k. Bonkers if you ask me.
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Like this one? Nearly run out. No adsb. Looks like original paint and interior. Nothing special avionics wise. God bless him if he gets it and for my sake I hope he does.

https://www.barnstormers.com/classified-1708773-1962-Piper-PA-28-180.html?catid=21147
 
DesertNomad said:
Unless some serious disruption happens like banning 100LL.
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Which will have zero negative effect-- and likely increase the demand-- for the thousands of engines certified to burn 80/87 and happier with Autogas than 100.
 
Lois said:
Which will have zero negative effect-- and likely increase the demand-- for the thousands of engines certified to burn 80/87 and happier with Autogas than 100.
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There aren't many of those left. You're talking old stuff like A-65's, C-85's and the like. The vast majority of O-320's, O-360's, O-540's, and everything else built in the last 50 years needs 90+ octane because the compression ratios are 8.5:1 or better. That's where something like 94UL could come in and fill the need for anything that isn't extremely high compression, turbocharged, or similarly challenged in using <100 octane. That still leaves your expensive recips (Piper Malibu's, turbocharged twins, etc) out in the cold.
 
Well, as expected with all the money printed and injected into the economy. Maybe a good time to buy a light twin? I heard they are relatively cheap with all things considered ...
 
Grum.Man said:
...Where the heck are people getting the money to afford these airplanes??...
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Considering how ridiculously low interest rates are, I suspect that a lot of them are borrowing the money.
 
The one upside is we bought our '57 172 on the cheap it is bare bones but now putting a little money into upgrades seems like a good idea as we can recover the money if we decide to sell.
 
kyleb said:
There aren't many of those left. You're talking old stuff like A-65's, C-85's and the like...
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More than you think. There are also lots of O-200s, O-235s, 150/160 hp O-320s, 180 hp O-360s, many Franklins, that can burn Motor gas. Not every airframe has an STC right now, but its technically possible (I have a STC for an airframe-- 350 were made, same manufacturer uses same model engine and same fuel system components in a different model, only 35 were made, no STC).

Higher hp O-320s, O-360s
kyleb said:
O-540's, and everything else built in the last 50 years needs 90+ octane because the compression ratios are 8.5:1 or better. That's where something like 94UL could come in and fill the need for anything that isn't extremely high compression, turbocharged, or similarly challenged in using <100 octane. That still leaves your expensive recips (Piper Malibu's, turbocharged twins, etc) out in the cold.
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Yeah, if 100LL gets banned there will be a definite need for a 90+ aviation fuel. Refiners have the recipe, some formulations have regulatory approval. Its just economics which changes when the current product goes away.
 
I kicked around the idea of buying a plane for months. Was the market overpriced? will it come down? will I be upside down in my loan? If the world goes to crap can I get out and be fine? Then one day I read a post that resonated with me. The guy said," It doesn't matter what you do a plane will never make much financial sense, you do it cause you love flying and you make it work." So I bought a plane a month ago and have put 12 hours on it since. I can already get more than I paid for it but probably just enough more to cover the taxes I paid on it.... ouch. Truth is, not a second goes by now that I don't think of flying. This is my first plane and going up in my own plane is surreal. Even my wife keeps commenting that it doesn't seem real that we own an airplane. There are a lot of people that will tell you not to go into debt for an airplane, or don't buy something you can't pay cash for or whatever other wild rules they came up with. It's an airplane... you either want to live that life of aircraft ownership or you don't. Money has little to do with it, you'll make it work somehow if you love it.

1 year from now you'll kick yourself for not buying when they were cheaper and interest rates were good. Inflation won't go down and interest rates will go up. The plane price my come down some but the affordability of it will continue to climb.
 
Yeah, if 100LL gets banned there will be a definite need for a 90+ aviation fuel. Refiners have the recipe, some formulations have regulatory approval. Its just economics which changes when the current product goes away.
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You can convert fuel fairly cheaply. Most people don't know this because most don't make fuel and additives for a living but if 100ll went away people would just buy pump gas and make it themselves. Just like you can clean fuel with water and take out the ethanol.
 
Joseph Matties said:
You can convert fuel fairly cheaply. Most people don't know this because most don't make fuel and additives for a living but if 100ll went away people would just buy pump gas and make it themselves. Just like you can clean fuel with water and take out the ethanol.
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You will not get a 90+ octane fuel by taking 91 octane auto fuel and removing the ethanol. Ethanol is an octane booster. With the proper mix to get the right RVP, you can blend a an unleaded fuel that would work fine in most non-turbocharged or extremely high (>8.5:1)compression engines. But probably it needs to be a dedicated new fuel spec like 94UL.
 
Anyone here remember the Jimmy Carter days? Super high interest rates, super high inflation. It lasted more than a short while, it was great as a kid with a passbook savings account paying 12%, for anyone needing to borrow money, not so much. This economy we have now is going to get worse, and it will last for at least 3 to 4 more years.

If and when 100LL is banned, it will definitely put a crimp in the light GA market, meaning that demand for planes and thus prices will drop. While many airplanes CAN run MOGAS, it is not legal to. My 180 is a prime example, there is no STC to run MOGAS. Around here there are only 2 stations that sell non-ethanol gas, and the price is very high. My engine builder for my kit plane told me NOT to run the non-ethanol I can get locally, because it is probably old stale gas.

Like everything else, prices on airplanes will likely never go back to what they were before, but they will drop. The coming economic collapse is going to make 2008 look like Childs play.
 
LesGawlik said:
Some government employees work at a job paying $200k for 20 years and suddenly are worth $200 million!
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I have seen the compensation package for some local government people. While on paper they can complain that their income is fair, the rest of the compensation package pushes them far higher. Our local librarian gets about $165k in salary. BUT, gets a $30k housing supplement, full health insurance, and other benefits that end up with her making more money than the vast majority of private business people. With your housing subsidized, and your heath insurance covered, and in many cases being provided with a vehicle and gas card, they are often quite isolated from any negatives in the economy. Its not like the government ever decreases its workforce.
 
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