Piper really stuck their foot in it now...

Look - it's Pipers answer to the Mooney PFM!

Oh -- wait...

I just spent 7 PERCENT of the cost of one of these. That's right, less than one tenth of this price. And what did I get for my piddling cost? Well, I can do 136Kts on 8.7GPH. I can use mogas, I can use 100LL, I can not use Diesel/Jet-A. I can carry +800lbs payload for ~4 hours. My TBO is 1800, but most cases go well past that(cylinders, ah - no) and the rebuild cost is again about 20% of the cost of the replacement of the Diesel engine.

I think I did ok. Maybe it'll sell in N Korea.

Oh - wait...
 
radioguy01 said:
I could literally build a top notch home theater for the price of a garmin avionics suite. And it wouldn't do that much more for me than an ipad with foreflight and stratus 2.
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There's your answer...keep the crappy old avionics and get an iPad and Stratus!

Doesn't help much if you want to file IFR though. :(

I have to say, I'm blown away by the utility I get from my iPad running Garmin Pilot. I have moving map GPS, weather (if I get a GDL-39), geo-referenced taxi diagrams, terrain and obstacle alerts, and now even synthetic vision! And all for annual subscription fees about half or a third of what it would cost to keep my 496 databases up to date.
 
The aero club at Osan Air Base in South Korea operate a number of 172's with the low compression Lyc O-320's and the entire flight operates off of automotive gas. When I first got there in 2005, a plane was $62/hr, when I went to Korea the second time and left in 2010 it was $72/hr. They had a 172RG but obviously had to be run with 100LL which became a problem so they hangared it for years. 100LL in Korea was like $12/gallon. Can't imagine what it is now. Probably something insane.
 
I think this will sell well, overseas. I think Piper is smart converting the Archer for a Diesel engine. I bet it can be built right along side the avgas (and unleaded avgas) Archers. Since they build ten planes at a time, it would be easier and more efficient to produce.
 
At my club in Holland we had several Diesel Robins and a Diesel DA40. The diesels cost significantly less to rent, per hour, than the AVGAS Pipers and Cessnas that we also had.
 
I don't understand why it is so difficult for pilot forums to understand this kind of thing?! Who mostly buys brand new Skyhawks, Warriors and Archers? Flight training academies. <News Flash> They are not all located in the United States! Perhaps Piper is thinking about, oh I don't know, Chinese sales??

Trust me, Piper and others well understand that 98% of the US GA market will never buy this plane, or any new plane. They will keep flying 60 year old planes until there are no more 60 year old planes and then they will start in on the 50 year old planes, etc. In addition, there is now a glut of unwanted used airplanes, so this is very easy to do.

Piper and others can do nothing for the 98%ers. There is no airplane they could produce even if the FAA were to suddenly vanish, that could compete with the used market. The "For that much I could getta..." argument is tired and pretty lame. Piper is not building planes for you.
 
Dav8or said:
I don't understand why it is so difficult for pilot forums to understand this kind of thing?! Who mostly buys brand new Skyhawks, Warriors and Archers? Flight training academies. <News Flash> They are not all located in the United States! Perhaps Piper is thinking about, oh I don't know, Chinese sales??

Trust me, Piper and others well understand that 98% of the US GA market will never buy this plane, or any new plane. They will keep flying 60 year old planes until there are no more 60 year old planes and then they will start in on the 50 year old planes, etc. In addition, there is now a glut of unwanted used airplanes, so this is very easy to do.

Piper and others can do nothing for the 98%ers. There is no airplane they could produce even if the FAA were to suddenly vanish, that could compete with the used market. The "For that much I could getta..." argument is tired and pretty lame. Piper is not building planes for you.
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Nope, I loved my Cherokee, but a new one would not be where I spent $400,000. I'd rather have a 60s era Bonanza.
 
I could make up the numbers, as I usually do on the internet but my guess is that the US makes up about half or more of GA new plane sales.

Not that I want Piper to fail, far from it - and I can see the international flavor of this, but if they were going to go for a "new" plane, and have it break some ground, why Recycle the Archer? I'll tell you why, because it already has a US TC that was certified after the CAR3 regs, and it now has the imprimatur on it from the FAA which is accepted as gospel around the world.

If I were Piper, and seeking the market for the non-US, I sure would have made it out of FG/CF ala Lancair/Glasair, given it a decent low drag wing and put a non-geared TD engine in there.
 
docmirror said:
I could make up the numbers, as I usually do on the internet but my guess is that the US makes up about half or more of GA new plane sales.
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Not for Piper. I dont think they have sold a Seneca to a US end-user in 10 years.
 
austinglasair said:
Another step closer to making General Aviation more inaccessible to the average American. smh
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I keep wondering, what part of "International Market" is so hard for and average PoA poster to comprehend. Perhaps the "national"? You know, they have other nations outside of America borders, amazingly enough, and in most of those so-called nations there is no 100LL at all. They have car gas, granted, but it's junk.
 
docmirror said:
Aircraft delivery by region:

*********North America **Europe ** Asia Pacific **Latin America **Middle East & Africa
Piston Engine 52.8% *******17.2% **15.1% *****10.0% **********5.0%

I was amazingly accurate with my SWAG.

http://www.gama.aero/files/documents/2013ShipmentReportAH02192014.pdf
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And there you go. All those other markets burn Jet A. If North America is tapped out and let's face it, it is, what are you going to do? Try to increase sales in the other half of the world. Going over there and offering airplanes that burn exotic fuel they don't have, or cost 10x Jet A, hasn't been working so well. An engine swap isn't that tough.

For North America, Piper has the Meridian, Mirage and Matrix. These actually sell pretty well to the guys that actually have the money for a brand new airplane. There is also the gas burning Warriors and Archers for a few flight schools. For the average American airplane owner, they have nothing except parts for their vintage Piper product.
 
I think the problem is that for most, international means outside of Texas (or their home state). :goofy:


zaitcev said:
I keep wondering, what part of "International Market" is so hard for and average PoA poster to comprehend. Perhaps the "national"? You know, they have other nations outside of America borders, amazingly enough, and in most of those so-called nations there is no 100LL at all. They have car gas, granted, but it's junk.
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Dav8or said:
And there you go. All those other markets burn Jet A. If North America is tapped out and let's face it, it is, what are you going to do? Try to increase sales in the other half of the world. Going over there and offering airplanes that burn exotic fuel they don't have, or cost 10x Jet A, hasn't been working so well. An engine swap isn't that tough.

For North America, Piper has the Meridian, Mirage and Matrix. These actually sell pretty well to the guys that actually have the money for a brand new airplane. There is also the gas burning Warriors and Archers for a few flight schools. For the average American airplane owner, they have nothing except parts for their vintage Piper product.
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Wow, interesting marketing plan. A segment that makes up 52% of the total sales volume in F/Y 2013 is 'tapped out'. You have a sinecure over at Piper. They need that kind of talent.

And one more time with vigor, I get that this plane was aimed at the intl market. Does anyone else get that it will not sell ONE unit in the largest single GA market of all? Bigger than all other segments combined? Bueller? :eek:
 
docmirror said:
Wow, interesting marketing plan. A segment that makes up 52% of the total sales volume in F/Y 2013 is 'tapped out'. You have a sinecure over at Piper. They need that kind of talent.
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Guess you just like to argue, or maybe your really super dense in the head, but probably not because you used a fancy word.

Is the North American market tapped out? What do you think? Are new airplane sales going up, or down? Is there anything on the horizon that you see causing an uptick in sales? Is there surplus demand, or supply? Is there a realistic way, within their means that Piper could steal sales away from their competitors that hasn't been tried? Maybe bold new graphics?

And one more time with vigor, I get that this plane was aimed at the intl market. Does anyone else get that it will not sell ONE unit in the largest single GA market of all? Bigger than all other segments combined? Bueller? :eek:
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Why wouldn't it sell one unit in North America? Cessna and Diamond have each sold more than one diesel here, Why is this so impossible for Piper?

So, one more time with vigor, they already service the biggest market in the world with products suited to that market. If you can't increase sales in the home market, why not expand into an export market with a product more suited to their needs? Why is this so hard to understand? Gas engine here, diesel engine there. Everybody happy. It may not be the biggest, but it is still 48% and that is sizable. A growth opportunity.
 
Dav8or said:
Guess you just like to argue, or maybe your really super dense in the head, but probably not because you used a fancy word.

Is the North American market tapped out? What do you think? Are new airplane sales going up, or down? Is there anything on the horizon that you see causing an uptick in sales? Is there surplus demand, or supply? Is there a realistic way, within their means that Piper could steal sales away from their competitors that hasn't been tried? Maybe bold new graphics?
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Please, just use the link provided, and search around the GAMA for your answers. I'll leave it at that, being super dense in the head that I am.

Sorry about the fancy word, it's my cross to bear.:sad:
 
This whole area is one in which the forthcoming Part 23 rewrite has great potential. Chevy is turning out electronically-managed, direct-injection V8s with 11:1 compression that run on auto fuel. Now that high pressure common-rail diesels are proving themselves in aviation, gasoline direct injection will follow, ending the era of leaded aviation fuels.

But...why would any manufacturer pursue type acceptance or STC for such an engine now, if coming regulatory changes may dramatically lower certification costs in a year or two? Once the new Part 23 gets here, the curtain will be pulled back on lots of new R&D.
 
weilke said:
I dont think they have sold a Seneca to a US end-user in 10 years.
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Actually, the GAMA report says they delivered 22 Senecas somewhere last year and 23 Seminoles too. My guess is mostly training academies. However, they do apparently still sell them.
 
In Europe, where 100LL is generally relatively cheap and (atleast in the northern parts) is easily available, it costs usually around 3,2EUR/liter. That about 17USD/gallon. Then when you go to other more remote areas (such as parts of Spain and Italy), the cost can double, if it is available at all.

If your Archer burns 10gph, in those "remote" areas, you'd be paying over 300USD per hour of 100LL.

Engines burning JET-A1 will cut that number to roughly about half and make the availability alot better, so the diesel engine pays for itself in less than 1000 hours.

Unfortunately the earlier GA-diesels have been rather awful (especially the old Thielert 1.7...), but there are alot of people who are hoping for something more reasonable than the old Lycontinentals.

As for the cost of the $400k Archer, well, that is quite outrageous. In an ideal GA-world there would be US fuel prices, and European product liability legislation(and legal fees), everywhere.
 
Dav8or said:
Actually, the GAMA report says they delivered 22 Senecas somewhere last year and 23 Seminoles too. My guess is mostly training academies. However, they do apparently still sell them.
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The seminoles go to UND, Riddle etc.

The Senecas apparently go mostly to south america. They may show up as a 'US sale' as they are initially registered to a US trust, but they dont remain here.
 
Wouldn't a diesel Saratoga have been a better choice? More utility for cargo operators rather than a trainer/toy.
 
weilke said:
The seminoles go to UND, Riddle etc.

The Senecas apparently go mostly to south america. They may show up as a 'US sale' as they are initially registered to a US trust, but they dont remain here.
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Why do South Americans buy new Senecas?
 
hindsight2020 said:
Why do South Americans buy new Senecas?
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Well, they have
- big remote areas full of trees
- mountains
- lots of thunderstorms but no nexrad coverage

So if you have some money to spend on a new aircraft, one that can maintain 16500ft on one engine and is available with a radar in the nose is attractive.
 
weilke said:
Well, they have
- big remote areas full of trees
- mountains
- lots of thunderstorms but no nexrad coverage

So if you have some money to spend on a new aircraft, one that can maintain 16500ft on one engine and is available with a radar in the nose is attractive.
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Exactly! There are wealthy people living down there that got their money legitimately. It's not all poor people and drug traffickers. It seems like great plane to cross the Amazon in.
 
Dav8or said:
Exactly! There are wealthy people living down there that got their money legitimately. It's not all poor people and drug traffickers. It seems like great plane to cross the Amazon in.
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I guess my question was posed more in the light to figuring out why we don't buy new Senecas. I get it, they're being sold at a 1MM a pop; is it because we have ready availability of used Senecas? In that light, why would South Americans not buy used Senecas instead?

I also figured our Country poses terrain challenges of equal or greater magnitude as the expanses of the South American continent, so that can't be the reason they buy these things. I still fail to see what value they see in the aircraft that we do not.

Is this like the Chinese having a boner for Buicks? You know, everybody up here knows they're boring grandpa cars but the host nation culture hasn't caught up with it yet and they still think they're the "it" thing? Good for Piper if that's the case I suppose. :D
 
hindsight2020 said:
I guess my question was posed more in the light to figuring out why we don't buy new Senecas. I get it, they're being sold at a 1MM a pop; is it because we have ready availability of used Senecas? In that light, why would South Americans not buy used Senecas instead?
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I don't know that we don't buy them here too. The GAMA report I read didn't say what planes went where. Somebody else here said they all went to South America. I don't know what his source is.

Anyhow, I would bet that the combination of the lack of our large pool of cheap used planes, readily scarce service, parts and the need to fly really long legs over certain death might prompt buyers to go new, or very near new vs. our usual "For that much I could getta..." Trade a Plane type plane.
 
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Yikes I'd rather take a 1975 40k Piper Archer and invest the rest.
 
hindsight2020 said:
I guess my question was posed more in the light to figuring out why we don't buy new Senecas. I get it, they're being sold at a 1MM a pop; is it because we have ready availability of used Senecas? In that light, why would South Americans not buy used Senecas instead?
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The market suggests that people with a new airplane budget in the US tend to buy a Cirrus. With the infrastructure of paved runways and services, there is not as much of a benefit to a twin. I just flew from MD to SC this evening, from 12500, had the engine puked, I could have assured a landing at a lighted airport during probably 90% of my trip.
 
Dav8or said:
I don't know that we don't buy them here too. The GAMA report I read didn't say what planes went where. Somebody else here said they all went to South America. I don't know what his source is.
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Piper was the source of that statement in a recent article on the Seneca V.

Piper used to build aircraft in Brasil in a joint venture with Embraer. That may be one of the reasons why the brand is popular down there.
 
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