Nuclear fusion anyone?

[zaitcev]

So, I'll rephrase my question. If LM has the ability to produce all you say they do, why doesn't LM build a Dyson sphere?

That pretty much counds as an attempt to Goodwin this conversation.

 

[Henning]

You need a lot more than that. You forgot resources, intelligence and skill. Probably other things, too.

What do you think the difference between vision and inspiration is?

So, I'll rephrase my question. If LM has the ability to produce all you say they do, why doesn't LM build a Dyson sphere?

Because they are going for the retrofit market, plus they have a point on the efficiency of developmental fabrication at the smaller scale. We have learned much from the Dyson Sphere, you don't need a working model to get to the next generation of efficiency. Remember, the Plutonium bomb was designed before the uranium 'gun barrel' design was built and was the first exploded at Trinity.

Vision is what you see in the future, inspiration is what you get to give you the ability to achieve that vision. As for intelligence, you are correct, I just group that with inspiration because they typically go together. I have no concerns to hedge my bet due to the levels of intelligence available at Skunk Works, they employ some of the best the world has to offer and have access to most of the rest.

As for resources, that is up to us to provide. You can bet on a well bred long shot to take us into the future, or you can bet on the status quo, it's up to you. When I answer to karma for my bets in life, I won't be ashamed, that's the best I can do. I like good long shots personally, I've picked three trifectas in my life.

 

[Palmpilot]

Let's put it this way….

There seems to be a nearly universal scientific consensus that this "design" is half done. Cooling being one of the obvious problems.

It's sounding quite a lot like 1983 in Utah. "Amazing" press releases with nothing to verify, no paper trail (yet), no evidence that anything exists in reality. The only exception I'm seeing is that there is no claim of a super-secret scientific paper that no one is being allowed to read.

I'll believe it when I can see it. Perpetual motion machines come and go on a regular basis. And this one doesn't seem to have anything in it that wasn't considered 20 years ago.

Henning, almost all power plants and all engines work by directing heat through a turbine or piston. Even conventional nuclear power plants. The hard part is, how do you contain the heat? Containment failures tend to be really messy. And with all the neutrons this thing is going to make, even more so.

Along those lines:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/scientists-bashing-lockheed-martins-nuclear-232518813.html

"... most scientists and science communicators we talked to are skeptical of the claim."

 

[MAKG1]

As for intelligence, you are correct, I just group that with inspiration because they typically go together.

Only if your sample only includes successful projects.

MOST ambitious ideas are bat**** crazy and don't get anywhere near working. Occasionally, a good one comes about.

 

[MAKG1]

That pretty much counds as an attempt to Goodwin this conversation.

Nothing to do with Godwin.

It's an attempt to show that there are some missing variables. If you want to label it, it's a classic reducto ad absurdum argument (the real meaning, not the Internet bastardization). Obviously, LM hasn't built a Dyson sphere because they lack something critical not in the list said to be sufficient. There are several obvious showstoppers outside that list, but a real obvious one is sufficient resources to build a structure much larger than the planet.

The problem with that argument was that Henning didn't know what a Dyson sphere was, nor did he care to look it up before he responded.

Reducto ad absurdum is not a fallacy unless misused. If A -> B, then !B -> !A.

 

[Henning]

Only if your sample only includes successful projects.

MOST ambitious ideas are bat**** crazy and don't get anywhere near working. Occasionally, a good one comes about.

Yep, Skunk Works has a good track record of getting things done, and this is a good idea. I consider this a good bet.

 

[MAKG1]

Yep, Skunk Works has a good track record of getting things done, and this is a good idea. I consider this a good bet.

How could you possibly know?

Almost all of what Skunk Works does is classified, and it's a good bet many of the failures never get disclosed to the public. Those projects that do make it out only do so after the projects have become obsolete, so all your information is decades old.

All you really know is that they have had some well publicized successes. That may be all they ever did, but more likely, there were a lot of failures in there too.

 

[docmirror]

Yeah, I don't think I would take the word of the WPPSS(whoops!) project either. They have a competing goofamak project in the works and it's about as far along as this one.

Follow the money, and my money is on some dark, unknown small team working by candle light in a basement in N Russia. Of course, they are gonna need a lot of candles to push into unity.

 

[Henning]

How could you possibly know?

Almost all of what Skunk Works does is classified, and it's a good bet many of the failures never get disclosed to the public. Those projects that do make it out only do so after the projects have become obsolete, so all your information is decades old.

All you really know is that they have had some well publicized successes. That may be all they ever did, but more likely, there were a lot of failures in there too.

I don't 'know', I have faith, that's the difference between knowledge and faith. I know what we need and where we need to go, and I have faith that they can get us there, so I act on that faith. That is my karmic duty, all that I am held responsible for. Whether the investment pays off in the long run in either cash, which I don't care about, or result, which I do greatly care about, is irrelevant to whether I profit from the investment, I will profit because I believed it was the right thing to do and I acted on it. Life doesn't pay off in cash, cash is a tool to use to make life pay off. That is where we continue to get it wrong. If you do the right thing, cash will never be an issue. If your do what you do for cash's sake, cash will always be your limiting issue.

 

[Dav8or]

Along those lines:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/scientists-bashing-lockheed-martins-nuclear-232518813.html

"... most scientists and science communicators we talked to are skeptical of the claim."

Yep, because if they weren't skeptical, they wouldn't be scientists, they would be believers. Skepticism is good and in this case, more than warranted. On the other hand, until all is revealed, it doesn't matter how many scientists are skeptical and doubt LM. 95% of the scientific community could believe they are full of crap and still be wrong.

Now the ball is in LM's court. Show us the power. If they want people to hand over money, they're going to have to share the plans. Perhaps they are simply waiting for their patents to be recorded before they do that.

 

[Henning]

Yep, because if they weren't skeptical, they wouldn't be scientists, they would be believers. Skepticism is good and in this case, more than warranted. On the other hand, until all is revealed, it doesn't matter how many scientists are skeptical and doubt LM. 95% of the scientific community could believe they are full of crap and still be wrong.

Now the ball is in LM's court. Show us the power. If they want people to hand over money, they're going to have to share the plans. Perhaps they are simply waiting for their patents to be recorded before they do that.

They still can develop a long way and develop far more patents on the resources they already have available, and others like me will give them more resources to work with, because we have the luxury of being able to be believers. I agree scientists should be skeptical, they should try to work out not only what can go wrong, but how to work around that as well. Skepticism plays an important roll in the development of anything, it needs to be part of the process, but it should never cause the end of the process, rather it should help provide the solutions.
The rest of us not directly working on it just need to show faith and support.

We the taxpayers have spent a lot of money over the years developing this industry, we have dedicated the most brilliant minds of our time to the Military Industrial Complex to develop our weapons. This is a weapon as there has never been developed before. This is a weapon of Mutually Assured Prosperity, this is something never before tried in all of recorded history regardless how many times the lesson and message to try with a promise of prosperity and peace if we just have the faith to try has been brought to us.

We have the chance still to change our future, we just have to decide to and get it done. Enough is enough we can't continue in in our old mode of business being destructive. We have to show the desire and faith to have a better future, one that earns us the right to leave this planet, and that is what this project has the potential to do. We just have to use it correctly, compassionately, and generously. With that we set the conditions that we no longer need to squander our resources destructively and use them wisely and constructively. We will no longer need to waste hydrocarbons on fuel, we can use them for polymer construction using 3D printers. That will be how we make 'Ringworld' type space structures, robotic 3D printer frames orbiting in space. That is how we expand through the Galaxy. This is how it starts. Without sufficient faith though and acts on that faith, it will fail.

 

[MAKG1]

Henning, it's a huge error to confuse science and engineering with science fiction.

We're not likely to ever spread out through the galaxy because of the time involved getting there -- and the problem is not technological. Similarly, Ringworld will never exist in real life, as it's rather difficult to come up with quite that much raw material.

Those are stories. Some of them good. But they are fiction. SF has had to assume physically impossible things in order to make a compelling story. A day-by-day narrative of a century long trip to Centaurus would be boring as hell.

 

[docmirror]

I've got some bad news for the 'whirled peas' crowd. If they think this is going to be given, sold, offered, or installed outside the US, there is NO WAY that will happen. The US guv will declare it an export restricted device so fast, that you would be amazed how fast the feds can deploy a reserve unit to a nuke facility.

If/when the breakthrough really is made, and someone achieves actual unity(not BS unity, like has been reported before), all the documentation will be put under fed lock and key, all the people will go on a fed NDA, and be closely monitored, and the device will instantly become the virtual property of the govt. It may actually be owned by LM, or WPPSS, or ITER, but they will not be allowed to do anything with it unless the feds give the blessing.

It is the nature of the the way we are today.

 

[Henning]

Henning, it's a huge error to confuse science and engineering with science fiction.

We're not likely to ever spread out through the galaxy because of the time involved getting there -- and the problem is not technological. Similarly, Ringworld will never exist in real life, as it's rather difficult to come up with quite that much raw material.

Those are stories. Some of them good. But they are fiction. SF has had to assume physically impossible things in order to make a compelling story. A day-by-day narrative of a century long trip to Centaurus would be boring as hell.

Really? Huge error? How much popular science fiction from 100, 50, and 25 years ago is now reality? If anything, the record of Science Fiction is that we should have faith in our ability to achieve anything we dream up. This is how timelines get started, from thoughts creating information. We can continue on any timeline we choose and can make it happen, we have the ability. Science Fiction starts the process with vision, and from that vision we gain inspiration, and through the gift of our technical genius, we find ways to engineer it.

Time drifting through the galaxy is irrelevant when you take your entire ecosystem along with your own 'sun' and a billion or so people with you.

 

[Henning]

I've got some bad news for the 'whirled peas' crowd. If they think this is going to be given, sold, offered, or installed outside the US, there is NO WAY that will happen. The US guv will declare it an export restricted device so fast, that you would be amazed how fast the feds can deploy a reserve unit to a nuke facility.

If/when the breakthrough really is made, and someone achieves actual unity(not BS unity, like has been reported before), all the documentation will be put under fed lock and key, all the people will go on a fed NDA, and be closely monitored, and the device will instantly become the virtual property of the govt. It may actually be owned by LM, or WPPSS, or ITER, but they will not be allowed to do anything with it unless the feds give the blessing.

It is the nature of the the way we are today.

You bet, and we should. We should be using it to produce export and domestic use hydrogen. We should let the Navy run it (they have the experience and talent to handle this type of stuff) as a competitive market industry with Treasury running the business end and printing a Constitutionally acceptable commodity based currency backed in kilos of hydrogen.

No overthrow, no bloody revolution required, we just give people the choice not only in fuel, but economic basis as well, create a true "free market" that not only meets Constitutional requirements, but Christian and Quoranic requirements as well. Plus the expansion of the private sector in manufacturing the equipment to use this new fuel will also spur employment and economic growth. The potential for technological offshoots once the technologies get rolling and a couple of generations developed is unlimited.

We have a chance, don't let a lack of faith ruin it.

The secrets will get out though, they always do. Secrets are not good.

 

[Palmpilot]

I've got some bad news for the 'whirled peas' crowd. If they think this is going to be given, sold, offered, or installed outside the US, there is NO WAY that will happen. The US guv will declare it an export restricted device so fast, that you would be amazed how fast the feds can deploy a reserve unit to a nuke facility.

Could be, but I'm not so sure that the secrecy efforts would be successful. The Manhattan Project went to great lengths to try to keep everything secret, but the Soviets still managed to recruit spies within the program, and after it succeeded, it only took them a couple of years to produce their own A-bomb.

 

[Henning]

Could be, but I'm not so sure that the secrecy efforts would be successful. The Manhattan Project went to great lengths to try to keep everything secret, but the Soviets still managed to recruit spies within the program, and after it succeeded, it only took them a couple of years to produce their own A-bomb.

Exactly, knowledge will always spread.

 

[Palmpilot]

...How much popular science fiction from 100, 50, and 25 years ago is now reality? If anything, the record of Science Fiction is that we should have faith in our ability to achieve anything we dream up...

Anything? I don't think so. The number of science fiction ideas that have become reality is FAR less than 100%.

Science fiction writers are free to violate the laws of physics, or dream up ones that don't exist in the real universe. Engineers don't have that luxury.

 

[Henning]

Anything? I don't think so. The number of science fiction ideas that have become reality is FAR less than 100%.

Science fiction writers are free to violate the laws of physics, or dream up ones that don't exist in the real universe. Engineers don't have that luxury.

Yes, most of them aren't worth having, this most definitely is. Skunk Works has arguably the best engineers in the world and they are confident. Like I said, I put my money on them, for the first time in 49 years I put money in the Stock Market.

 

[MAKG1]

Yes, most of them aren't worth having, this most definitely is. Skunk Works has arguably the best engineers in the world and they are confident. Like I said, I put my money on them, for the first time in 49 years I put money in the Stock Market.

Umm, the reason most science fiction constructions don't exist is not because they aren't worth having. Faster than light travel, time machines, antigravity, warp drives, and a whole host of other fanciful but impossible gadgets would be very much worth having, if only they weren't impossible.

Us real engineers have to live in the real world. Fiction is entertainment. Sometimes very good entertainment, but it just isn't any type of statement about what is actually possible. Most of it is actually statement about contemporary social issues.

And somehow my cell phone doesn't work anywhere near as well as those Star Trek communicators, either.

 

[Henning]

Umm, the reason most science fiction constructions don't exist is not because they aren't worth having. Faster than light travel, time machines, antigravity, warp drives, and a whole host of other fanciful but impossible gadgets would be very much worth having, if only they weren't impossible.

Us real engineers have to live in the real world. Fiction is entertainment. Sometimes very good entertainment, but it just isn't any type of statement about what is actually possible. Most of it is actually statement about contemporary social issues.

And somehow my cell phone doesn't work anywhere near as well as those Star Trek communicators, either.

Nothing is impossible, it just hasn't happened yet. You can bet on the future or you can bet on the past, it's up to you.

 

[Palmpilot]

Nothing is impossible, it just hasn't happened yet. You can bet on the future or you can bet on the past, it's up to you.

You talk about having faith. I have a lot more faith in the laws of physics that have been experimentally verified so far than I do in hypothetical new laws of physics that would be required in order to turn fiction into reality.

I am sure that there are new physical laws to be discovered, but I am also sure that we don't know what they are yet.

 

[Henning]

You talk about having faith. I have a lot more faith in the laws of physics that have been experimentally verified so far than I do in hypothetical new laws of physics that would be required in order to turn fiction into reality.

I am sure that there are new physical laws to be discovered, but I am also sure that we don't know what they are yet.

There's only one way you find them, looking for something else. There are no new laws of physics we need to discover for this though, just a change in perspective of how to apply the ones we know well.

 

[Palmpilot]

Umm, the reason most science fiction constructions don't exist is not because they aren't worth having. Faster than light travel, time machines, antigravity, warp drives, and a whole host of other fanciful but impossible gadgets would be very much worth having, if only they weren't impossible.

I want the ability to travel backwards in time, but I have a feeling that because changing history would change the present, it would require more energy than is available in the universe.

 

[Henning]

I want the ability to travel backwards in time, but I have a feeling that because changing history would change the present, it would require more energy than is available in the universe.

Kinda, it wouldn't change history, it would create another universe going forward, another timeline.

 

[Palmpilot]

There's only one way you find them, looking for something else. There are no new laws of physics we need to discover for this though, just a change in perspective of how to apply the ones we know well.

I'm not saying that LM won't succeed. I'm just saying that we don't know whether they will or not, and if they do, when. Right now, the unanswered questions that have been raised suggest that it currently falls into the category of vaporware.

 

[Palmpilot]

Kinda, it wouldn't change history, it would create another universe going forward, another timeline.

That too sounds like an impossible expenditure of energy.

Has the existence of other universes been experimentally verified?

 

[Henning]

That too sounds like an impossible expenditure of energy.

Has the existence of other universes been experimentally verified?

We have no idea of the energy available outside our universe, how can it sound impossible? If it was impossible our universe wouldn't exist. Experimentally verified in what way? I don't think we have the ability to create a verifying experiment at this point, however there have been several experiments in quantum physics with results that make you go, "hmmm, that's funny, that shouldn't happen" where subatomic particles appear and disappear from nowhere.

 

[JimNtexas]

The classics are transmutation of base metals to gold, astrology, and perpetual motion.

As far as we know transmutation of base metals to gold, astrology, and perpetual motion are scientifically impossible.

On the other hand we KNOW that fusion power IS possible!

That's a big difference. And the Skunk Works isn't know for claiming to do the impossible.

The Skunk Works is known for doing possible but extremely difficult things in extremely short periods of time.

There are a couple of other credible organizations out there who are also putting significant private money in to similar designs.

It's easy to call the Skunk Works a bunch of charlatans on a forum, but I don't think you would say that to their faces.

I do think there is an economic motivation for the Skunk Works taking the unusual step of talking about an invention before it's out there flying, and especially for making a video with cool young engineers being excited to be working on a project that has a fairly near term end.

Lockheed is probably tired of seeing the best young engineering grads going to SpaceX, even when Lockheed offers them more money and less sweat shop like working conditions. SpaceX is flying spaceships almost every month!

SpaceX is not taking years and years making power points describing how they'll begin to start working for next year's preliminary design review, if Congress doesn't cut funding next week.

If the Lockheeds of the world want the best young talent then they need to show that they are doing exciting work, and that real hardware will come out of the projects before the new grads are old and fat so many of us here.

The same people who laughed at SpaceX four years ago are laughing at this.

Yuk it up while you can guys.

 

[MAKG1]

Kinda, it wouldn't change history, it would create another universe going forward, another timeline.

Hmm, you seem to like some laws of physics and not others.

 

[Henning]

Hmm, you seem to like some laws of physics and not others.

Nope, I like them all, there is nothing about physics that denies this possibility.

 

[Henning]

We do know how to transmutate base metals into gold, through fusion lol, same way stars do it. We just lack the technical ability at this point.

 

[MAKG1]

We do know how to transmutate base metals into gold, through fusion lol, same way stars do it. We just lack the technical ability at this point.

Stars don't make anything heavier than iron.

To make bigger stuff, you need a supernova. Good luck getting one to blow when you want it.

 

[Henning]

Stars don't make anything heavier than iron.

To make bigger stuff, you need a supernova. Good luck getting one to blow when you want it.

Supernova is the result of a star. One day we will create a contained supernova if we make the right decisions now.

 

[Palmpilot]

We have no idea of the energy available outside our universe, how can it sound impossible? If it was impossible our universe wouldn't exist.

It's not the existence of enough energy to create a universe that sounds impossible; it's the notion of human beings controlling that much energy.

Experimentally verified in what way?

That's a question that must be answered by the proponents of a hypothesis. If it's not testable through experiment or observation, it's not science.

I don't think we have the ability to create a verifying experiment at this point, however there have been several experiments in quantum physics with results that make you go, "hmmm, that's funny, that shouldn't happen" where subatomic particles appear and disappear from nowhere.

When experimental results or observations occur that don't fit current theories, there is usually more than one possible explanation.

 

[Henning]

It's not the existence of enough energy to create a universe that sounds impossible; it's the notion of human beings controlling that much energy.

"That much energy" is a matter of perspective. From our perception as minuscule beings with no vision of what is beyond our universe it appears to be some inconceivably vast amount. However from the perspective of the dimension that injected the initial 'bang' worth of energy it may be a small dose from an infinite supply.

That's a question that must be answered by the proponents of a hypothesis. If it's not testable through experiment or observation, it's not science.

No, science is as much attitude as action. Just because someone is not immediately able to test a hypothesis does not make it 'not science'. People are working on the prerequisites to being able to make the experiments, that can lead further towards the goal of answering the questions, that is all science as well.

When experimental results or observations occur that don't fit current theories, there is usually more than one possible explanation.

Yep, and more to learn, and more to create.

 

[MAKG1]

We have no idea of the energy available outside our universe, how can it sound impossible? If it was impossible our universe wouldn't exist. Experimentally verified in what way? I don't think we have the ability to create a verifying experiment at this point, however there have been several experiments in quantum physics with results that make you go, "hmmm, that's funny, that shouldn't happen" where subatomic particles appear and disappear from nowhere.

Energy outside our universe? What does that even mean?

Energy must flow from one place to another. That's a consequence of energy conservation. If it's outside the universe, it is not in contact in any way that can communicate a message. So, how are you going to use this energy? You can't see it and you can't get at it, even in principle.

If this idea weren't half baked, you would have an experiment designed, even if it was not possible with current technology.

Yes, there are some odd results in quantum physics. To extrapolate from that to "we can do whatever we can imagine" is a really, really big leap.

Scientists don't just make stuff up. A new model has to describe data (correctly, and better than alternatives), or make some prediction that can be tested. No one goes out with "gee wouldn't it be cool if…." and expects an answer other than Nature's middle finger. That happened in cosmology not long ago, when people assumed (in an absence of data) that the universe was simpler than it really was. "We don't know" is not a motivation for building a device, or even suggesting an otherwise impossible device might someday exist. That's silly. There are an infinite number of wrong models.

 

[Henning]

How is it possible? Think of the universe as the intersection of say 11 dimensions all adding something to whole. Space time is the dimension is what allows matter to form by giving it a time and place to exist. Each slice of time can hold an entire universe making an infinite amount of universes possible, it also means that time travel will necessitate another universe running parallel in time.

There is an experiment I will eventually perpetrate that will either prove me correct or not, and that is to die.

 

[docmirror]

On the other hand we KNOW that fusion power IS possible!


The same people who laughed at SpaceX four years ago are laughing at this.

Yuk it up while you can guys.

Well, we've known about the idea of fusion(solar) energy for a while. We've also recreated an uncontained fusion reaction here on earth. No prob, the fusion physics are pretty easy compared to the physics(engineering wise) of fission.

However, no one has ever yet contained fusion. Since we're talking about energy densities that are off-the-scale higher than anything we've contained before this is kind of a double paradigm shift. The center of our planet is hot, and under great pressure. Really, really hot and a heck of a lot of pressure. But it's nothing compared to the heat and pressure of the gas giant mantles, and the heat and pressures at the center of the sun are just beyond comprehension. This is what we're all trying to bottle with various types of synthetic processes(plasma, magnetism, laser, and all together as well).

The speed of light is a known entity. We work with it, we can utilize it, we can even speed something up to some fraction of it eventually but there is no way we can get to, or beyond it. It's not remotely like the sound barrier which is an artifact if you will, and dependent entirely on the gas pressure and temp of an atmosphere.

Maybe fusion containment is like that. We can get it 80, or 85, or 92% contained, but there is no 'close enough' with fusion. Any leaks, anywhere will kill the process instantly, and then all you have is a lot of heat and pressure coming out like the most deadly spear of physics ever seen. There is no mechanical element, or material known or considered that can hope to hold against a fusion leak. Wishes aren't fishes, but I hope the guys way smarter than me can fool physics enough to contain it. Nature hasn't yet figured it out.

 

[MAKG1]

Henning, you watch too much Star Trek.

You're hardly alone, but you're taking it much too seriously. It's a story.