No-Go

[spiderweb]

I chickened out. I had to make the decision tonight because our hosts needed to know. Forcasts for the area predict increasingly low cielings and, as noted before, the area airports' approaches all have rather high MDAs. There were even a few predictions for freezing pellets. Finally I just decided that I agreed with the briefer's assessment that it was doable but lousy. I can take the stress or excitement of such a flight, but coupling that with the stress of schlepping my cello through the rain to the plane, flying in rain the whole way, and then having to play through my recital program for my old teacher (much more stressful than an actual performance) just tipped the balance.

And to add to add insult to injury, I won't be able to fly again until after the recital, making it a total of five weeks between flights. I know that this is nothing for a lot of you, but flying is my second passion and I HATE going that long without doing it.

Oh well. . . .

 

[Richard]

You KNOW you made the right decision. But I wonder if you are blaming the wx as an excuse to excuse yourself from having to face your former teacher.

 

[drhunt]

Sorry it didn't work out but best to pick the safe course. There will always be better times ahead. Good thing you're not taking 5 weeks off from playing...I couldn't imagine that and I'm just an amateur musician!

 

[Shipoke]

Sounds like you made the right choice Ben, Thats a lot of ugly to contend with better not to stress yourself out, Dave G.
P.S. I'd rather be safe then sorry,and have my freinds read about it .

 

[AdamZ]

Ben you might not like not going but do you feel comfortable with your decision? Thats whats important

 

[spiderweb]

You KNOW you made the right decision. But I wonder if you are blaming the wx as an excuse to excuse yourself from having to face your former teacher.

LOL--just one of the reasons probably.

 

[spiderweb]

Sorry it didn't work out but best to pick the safe course. There will always be better times ahead. Good thing you're not taking 5 weeks off from playing...I couldn't imagine that and I'm just an amateur musician!

So true.

 

[spiderweb]

Sounds like you made the right choice Ben, Thats a lot of ugly to contend with better not to stress yourself out, Dave G.
P.S. I'd rather be safe then sorry,and have my freinds read about it .

That last point is especially convincing.

 

[spiderweb]

Ben you might not like not going but do you feel comfortable with your decision? Thats whats important

I do. I'm still disappointed, though.

 

[Dave Krall CFII]

That last point is especially convincing.

Isn't there a club over there where you can get checked out in a K Centurion for these occasions ?

 

[spiderweb]

Isn't there a club over there where you can get checked out in a K Centurion for these occasions ?

I really wish there were something feasable like this. None of the flight schools have 6-seaters, but there is a good Saratoga club at BWI. The problem is that (perhaps due to high gas and hangar prices at BWI) joining and maintainng membership in that club is very expensive.

I think I really need a six-seater, too. Now, out of the blue, I suddenly have friends and family who would all like to make these trips. While I absolutely am in heaven about this, it does mean that six seats would help, either by allowing me to take four with full fuel, or six with reduced fuel.

My CFII is going to buy an new plane in Januaury. At the least, it will be a C182T, and he's hoping to get a C206H. I am REALLY hoping he gets the C206H!

 

[Let'sgoflying!]

I always like to look through the Retrospectoscope to see what it would have been like if I'd gone - has anyone done this yet? I have this silly fantasy that by relating their forecast to what really happened; I can more easily predict their accuracy next time.

 

[Dave Krall CFII]

I really wish there were something feasable like this. None of the flight schools have 6-seaters, but there is a good Saratoga club at BWI. The problem is that (perhaps due to high gas and hangar prices at BWI) joining and maintainng membership in that club is very expensive.

I think I really need a six-seater, too. Now, out of the blue, I suddenly have friends and family who would all like to make these trips. While I absolutely am in heaven about this, it does mean that six seats would help, either by allowing me to take four with full fuel, or six with reduced fuel.

My CFII is going to buy an new plane in Januaury. At the least, it will be a C182T, and he's hoping to get a C206H. I am REALLY hoping he gets the C206H!

Those aircraft are cool for flight in the warmer clouds but to do flights like the one that you canceled, K-ice capability is pretty much a must have to be both reasonably safe and stay close to being on schedule.

 

[Dave Krall CFII]

I always like to look through the Retrospectoscope to see what it would have been like if I'd gone - has anyone done this yet? I have this silly fantasy that by relating their forecast to what really happened; I can more easily predict their accuracy next time.

That doesn't usually work because by canceling a flight, the probability of WX improving goes way up. The exact meteorology of this phenomenon has something to do with convective warming no doubt.

 

[John J]

Ben;

A real good decision. I was over at BWI early this morning (0700) to put my wife on a SW flight to AUS. The weather would have been quite a challenge and even now at 1445 the picture up in Western Mass. is pretty ugly. I know it is frustrating but there will be better days to fly. I do remember so well sitting in various airports with my "RON Kit" (Remain Over Night bag) hanging out with the weather folks. I was glad to be on the ground.

John

 

[Let'sgoflying!]

That doesn't usually work because by canceling a flight, the probability of WX improving goes way up. The exact meteorology of this phenomenon has something to do with convective warming no doubt.

haha! ah, but my entrenched algorithm will subtract the beneficial effect that not going always has on the weather.

 

[spiderweb]

Those aircraft are cool for flight in the warmer clouds but to do flights like the one that you canceled, K-ice capability is pretty much a must have to be both reasonably safe and stay close to being on schedule.

Right. I know that it doesn't really give me any advantage other than getting six seats. My CFII did mention that he wanted at least a hot prop and uplink weather. That would help a bit. Man, if you're spending that much money, why not add in some of those goodies?

I have even seen KI Skylanes and Stationairs. Sweet.

 

[spiderweb]

Thanks, John.

Ben;

A real good decision. I was over at BWI early this morning (0700) to put my wife on a SW flight to AUS. The weather would have been quite a challenge and even now at 1445 the picture up in Western Mass. is pretty ugly. I know it is frustrating but there will be better days to fly. I do remember so well sitting in various airports with my "RON Kit" (Remain Over Night bag) hanging out with the weather folks. I was glad to be on the ground.

John

 

[gismo]

Right. I know that it doesn't really give me any advantage other than getting six seats. My CFII did mention that he wanted at least a hot prop and uplink weather. That would help a bit. Man, if you're spending that much money, why not add in some of those goodies?

I have even seen KI Skylanes and Stationairs. Sweet.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that TKS offers KI for the 182, just "full deice". KI approval requires extensive testing which costs a ton of money. OTOH, the unapproved system would provide a means of escaping ice and thus "allow" most wintertime flights where the chance of ice is in the forecast (practically, not legally).

 

[spiderweb]

Right, and even a hot prop would be welcome!