No go too conservative?

skidoo

skidoo

Line Up and Wait
Joined
Nov 13, 2009
Messages
987
Location
Montana
Display Name
Display name:
skidoo
Dang it! I am now leaning towards traveling by ground on a 350nm trip (260 nm by air) due to forecast weather on Monday. All the weather is great right now through Sunday for flying, and again beginning Wed. I want to leave on Friday and return on Monday. It may be possible that the clouds may be high enough on Monday, but I can't find any forecast for that anywhere. A lot of the forecast area says "Partly" sunny. I guess that also means mostly cloudy.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...94&site=tfx&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

Anyway, am I being too finicky on the forecast?
 
whats going to happen if you can't get back on monday?
 
I've scrubbed because I didn't think I'd be able to get home, but only on day trips because I absolutely positively had to be home.

How important is it for you to be home on Monday? Would you be willing to step up your return to Sunday? How badly do you want to fly?

Definitely a personal call.
 
How bout flying and coming back late Sunday if the forecast for Monday calls for low ceilings. They should have a good idea by Sunday.
 
I've scrubbed many times because of forecast wx/ceilings. Last year I even came back early from Ohio because there were lowering clouds I wasn't sure that if I waited, I'd be able to get high enough to cross Lake Erie without being well out of glide distance from shore for longer than I'm comfortable, and I didn't want to go all the way around the DTW Bravo. Yes it's a personal call and yes they've all been day trips.
 
If you scrub solely on forecast, be prepared to be surprised. What you need to do is take a practical weather course so you can get better at your own predictions. Take in lots of sources including the government supplied prog charts, weather.com, wunderground, accuweather, cnn, and the local guys. You'll find that they all hardly ever agree.
Scrub the day of but have a backup plan in place. You might also leave early, stay later.
 
The decision rests solely with the pilot. Yes, more than once I've been disappointed by others who make the decision based on forecasts but I cannot fault them for it. Well, I can because I like to push my comfort zone but it is still the pilot's decision.

Today I noticed the freezing level is down to 080-120 in the northern states. And the wx already is looking mixed, primed for winter. One thing I've learned is don't try to outrun a cold front and count on reduced vis with an occluded warm front. Looks like you have both in your area.

Me? I would push but have time for Plan B. A tight schedule for the return may not allow that.
 
silver-eagle said:
Scrub the day of but have a backup plan in place. You might also leave early, stay later.
Click to expand...
A problem I've had with that is to wait until the scheduled departure now means you're too late to drive. The only real solution I've found is as you say; leave earlier and if the flight go/no decision is a no go you'll still have time to go by ground.
 
I can't speak for Montana, but in the midwest, "chance of showers" often is code speak for the late afternoon pop up storms that can occur. They seldom are too big, are easy to see in the day and you can usually fly around, if not over, them. I second the motion to learn more about the weather and see if you can get some discussion of the information behind the forecast.
 
Thanks for everyone's input! I do like to see others thoughts. I have watched Montana's weather for a couple of decades now. From what I have seen, the forecasts have a way to be way different than initially perceived. Even the Sunny forecast for a couple days ago, we had almost overcast for a few hours in the morning. I do get some insight for how accurate it may be by also watching the satellite IR 28k image loops where it shows weather from China to here. The way the air mixes and circulates is amazing and difficult to predict for one location far in advance.

Anyway, since I also have a tinge of a cold, that combined with the forecast weather, I have decided to drive in the morning. When I get back, I can check out the weather then and see if I can play around locally.

Last year, I purchased my plane in mid December and it got stuck there due to weather for at least three weeks. Sometimes the weather here likes to remain the same for a week or more at a time, or it will change 50 times a day.

So, I am at peace with my decision this time...

I would like to get more input on how one can obtain forecasts for cloud ceilings 24 hours+ out. I like the NOAA graphical forecast which shows percent of cloud cover. But, it doesn't show any ceiling forecast.
 
The AOPA site has ceiling/vis forecasts up to 48 hrs out.
 
skidoo said:
Thanks for everyone's input! I do like to see others thoughts. I have watched Montana's weather for a couple of decades now. From what I have seen, the forecasts have a way to be way different than initially perceived. Even the Sunny forecast for a couple days ago, we had almost overcast for a few hours in the morning. I do get some insight for how accurate it may be by also watching the satellite IR 28k image loops where it shows weather from China to here. The way the air mixes and circulates is amazing and difficult to predict for one location far in advance.

Anyway, since I also have a tinge of a cold, that combined with the forecast weather, I have decided to drive in the morning. When I get back, I can check out the weather then and see if I can play around locally.

Last year, I purchased my plane in mid December and it got stuck there due to weather for at least three weeks. Sometimes the weather here likes to remain the same for a week or more at a time, or it will change 50 times a day.

So, I am at peace with my decision this time...

I would like to get more input on how one can obtain forecasts for cloud ceilings 24 hours+ out. I like the NOAA graphical forecast which shows percent of cloud cover. But, it doesn't show any ceiling forecast.
Click to expand...
I suggest looking at Scott D's site http://avwxworkshops.com/ and looking at the many threads on this board with the tag 'weather'.
 
I never worry about getting stuck somewhere. If I do get stuck, then that means a day I don't have to go into the office. ;)

Seriously, though, I typically will make the trip if I can, and then get stuck if I get stuck. It sounds a lot worse than it is. Most of the time you can make your trip if you give the weather plus or minus a day to change.

I'll also point out that "too conservative" is really not a term that I believe in. It's important that you understand your own limits and expand them slowly and carefully. To try to do otherwise isn't particularly smart. Personally I tend to fly rather than not fly, but that's been the result of slow and steady expansion, not haphazardly going off into the unknown.
 
The old saying: It's better to be down here wishing you were up there than up there wishing you were down here.

Sounds like you made a good decision.
 
silver-eagle said:
take a practical weather course ... Take in lots of sources including the government supplied prog charts, weather.com, wunderground, accuweather, cnn, and the local guys.
Click to expand...

Any suggestions on where / how to take a "practical weather course". I've been flying the midwest for the last 10 years. I'm to the point that I have a pretty good feeling for how Progs are going to turn out when the day arrives. That said, I'm pretty conservative and don't have the flexibility to "wait it out", so I drive a LOT instead of flying. An instrument ticket is in my future, but I'd love to have a bit more training on weather in the interim.
 
iflyforfun said:
Any suggestions on where / how to take a "practical weather course". I've been flying the midwest for the last 10 years. I'm to the point that I have a pretty good feeling for how Progs are going to turn out when the day arrives. That said, I'm pretty conservative and don't have the flexibility to "wait it out", so I drive a LOT instead of flying. An instrument ticket is in my future, but I'd love to have a bit more training on weather in the interim.
Click to expand...

Aunt Peggy has the answer in her post.

Bob Gardner
 
Dynamic weather (showers, storms, etc, etc) is.... dynamic. :wink2:

Best plan is to have a backup plan.
 
To the OP:
Listen to your gut, not to us!
Everyone has a weather level of comfort... If the forecast makes you uncomfortable, don't....
There is always another day to fly - if you don't screw this one up...

denny-o
 
Ted DuPuis said:
I never worry about getting stuck somewhere. If I do get stuck, then that means a day I don't have to go into the office. ;)
Click to expand...

You don't have kids you need to pick up at school.:D
 
Dr. O said:
To the OP:
Listen to your gut, not to us!
Everyone has a weather level of comfort... If the forecast makes you uncomfortable, don't....
There is always another day to fly - if you don't screw this one up...

denny-o
Click to expand...


Yea, something was telling me to drive this time, and I was sneezing a bit along the way today. I'm ok, but not 100%. Anyway, here is a twist to this. We got up early to do some business shipments just before hitting the road. Well, when we got up, our internet connection was down. The ISP had issues that may not be resolved until noon. We had to ship the packages today. So, we decided to bring them with us and ship them this afternoon from our destination. This added more volume and about another 150 lbs. I would have had to reduce fuel to accommodate if we flew plus having to deal with moving these packages around without a car. In addition, I would not have been able to check all the internet weather sites for the latest.

So, after arrival, we drive to my sons work, borrow their computer/internet/printer to complete the paperwork and drive a couple of blocks to the UPS center. While there, my son remembers that they had a piece of baby furniture ordered, but UPS had trouble finding their place for the last month. So, he asks about it. The lady at the counter said just write down the name and address and she would see what she could do. Well, they handed her the piece of paper, she looked at it and said hmmm, the name sounds familiar, took a couple of steps back and matched it up to the box that had been sitting there waiting for disposition with a driver's note "undeliverable, vicious dog"!

So, if our internet hadn't gone down this morning, and if we had not had to get our stuff shipped today, then my son would not have got his package today either.

Some times, things just work out!
 
Ted DuPuis said:
...

I'll also point out that "too conservative" is really not a term that I believe in. It's important that you understand your own limits and expand them slowly and carefully. To try to do otherwise isn't particularly smart. Personally I tend to fly rather than not fly, but that's been the result of slow and steady expansion, not haphazardly going off into the unknown.
Click to expand...

Good advice my long haired friend.

Dr. O said:
To the OP:
Listen to your gut, not to us!
Everyone has a weather level of comfort... If the forecast makes you uncomfortable, don't....
There is always another day to fly - if you don't screw this one up...

denny-o
Click to expand...

Really good advice

steingar said:
I never scrub for a forecast. I wait to get stuck by actual conditions.
Click to expand...

Thats great if you have the luxury of not needing to get back.

I've been in that position many times Skidoo. I will tell you that most of the time I am very happy with my no go decision as the Wx turned out as Fx. The times that I said no go and it turned out flyable well that is in fact a time where I find myself kicking myself. Today is CVAU and I desperatly want to fly with my friend to meet others in West Virgina . Its freaking awesome today but tomorrow is not looking very good and I just can't risk not being able to get back tomorrow nor can my flying partner. If I could risk it I'd be there but If I can't fly back tomorrow the Wx will be even worse on Monday and Tue. So if I don't go and it turns out to be fine I'll be disappointed and probably second guess myself. But if I do go and the Wx is bad then I have put both myself and my flying partner in a very difficult situation at home and at work.
 
flyersfan31 said:
You don't have kids you need to pick up at school.:D
Click to expand...

Actually I do, but they have fur and if I can't pick them up on time then school is glad to keep them for an extra day. ;)
 
I have scrubbed for forecasts, and I've waited for actual conditions, depending on several variables. Since I rent, I tend to scrub on forecasts for multi-day XC flights- this way it releases the plane for someone else if the weather is good locally.

If I'm only flying local or all flying is the same day, I'll scrub on actual conditions. Sometimes I'll just pick another destination (instead of a weekend in Minneapolis, I'll spend a weekend in Denver).
 
I think it a hoot that pilots have a proclivity to borrow terms from the military when talking of their civilian, personal flights. Tally ho, people.:ihih:
 
Living in the Great Lakes, forecasts are wrong 95% of the time. The other 5% of the time they are incorrect. I only concern myself with pastcasts.
 
mhockey21 said:
Instrument rating?:wink2:
Click to expand...

As Tony once told me, a big function of the instrument rating is to make the go/no-go decision more difficult. Now you can fly in the clouds, but what is there related to those clouds that may be harmful to you?

Add on de-ice, on-board radar, a second engine, etc., and it can get harder still.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
As Tony once told me, a big function of the instrument rating is to make the go/no-go decision more difficult. Now you can fly in the clouds, but what is there related to those clouds that may be harmful to you?

Add on de-ice, on-board radar, a second engine, etc., and it can get harder still.
Click to expand...


I drove back today. With the weather I saw from the ground, No way would I have made it today! I am working on the IR. But, as you say, today the IR would not have helped me due to the icing at the levels needed to get over the mountains. To fly this trip, I would have had to come back a day earlier or a day or two later. I am happy with the decision this time...
 
skidoo said:
I drove back today. With the weather I saw from the ground, No way would I have made it today! I am working on the IR. But, as you say, today the IR would not have helped me due to the icing at the levels needed to get over the mountains. To fly this trip, I would have had to come back a day earlier or a day or two later. I am happy with the decision this time...
Click to expand...

That's the problem. Having the instrument rating by itself in no way guarantees your ability to get where you're going. I've had a few days where, even in a de-iced twin, I've had to cancel flights. Out in those mountainous regions, it can be even worse because of the required step up in order to get sufficient performance.

One of the things I like about where I live with a de-iced naturally aspirated twin you can still get pretty good performance and get where you're going most days. :)
 
When I finished up my instrument rating about 10 years ago, my CFII told me some stats (that he probably made up but nonetheless) - he said that a pilot that is only VFR will, in the NE United States, "go" about 80% of the time. With an instrument ticket that number goes up to about 90%. And add on certified FIKI and the number goes up to about +95%. It turns out, those numbers are pretty close for me over these last 10 years. That's not counting trips in which I had the flexibility to plan around the weather by a reasonable time frame. I'm just talking about trips I needed to make when I needed to make it and couldn't - about 1 in 20+ with a deice equipped single engine turbocharged airplane (and a stormscope or XM weather).
 
80% of the time a "go" as a VFR-only pilot? In Michigan, and talking only about serious trips well out of my backyard, it's been more like 50-50 for me. If I include local flights, I might estimate 80% go, but even then it would depend on the time of year. My CFII and I scrubbed a few instrument lessons last winter (and I scrubbed one or two on my own where I was less comfortable than he was -- and had to pay him for his time for them too).
 
iflyforfun said:
Any suggestions on where / how to take a "practical weather course". I've been flying the midwest for the last 10 years. I'm to the point that I have a pretty good feeling for how Progs are going to turn out when the day arrives. That said, I'm pretty conservative and don't have the flexibility to "wait it out", so I drive a LOT instead of flying. An instrument ticket is in my future, but I'd love to have a bit more training on weather in the interim.
Click to expand...
The Coast Guard Auxiliary has a weather program. Though much of the CG/CGA are floaters, when the course is run by an aviator, you can get some practical information related to flying. You can find the training material online. The schedules are by individual flotillas.
You might check with local schools, CAP, and online. Scott D's website, as mentioned previously, is a good start. He's also a frequent poster here.
AOPA has an online weather course.
You're not working for a PHD, just a better understanding of the weather. Start charting your prognostications. Be realistic. When you're better than average, then you have the understanding of your local weatherman, who still get it wrong.
It's not so much a science as an art.
 
OK, so how many pounds is the 'vicious dog' running loose?

denny-o
 
azure said:
80% of the time a "go" as a VFR-only pilot? In Michigan, and talking only about serious trips well out of my backyard, it's been more like 50-50 for me. If I include local flights, I might estimate 80% go, but even then it would depend on the time of year. My CFII and I scrubbed a few instrument lessons last winter (and I scrubbed one or two on my own where I was less comfortable than he was -- and had to pay him for his time for them too).
Click to expand...

My last few no go have been medical reasons, not weather. VFR only (of course I was that for only 60 hours - I started on the IR right away) I remember maybe 3 cancelled flights.
 
mhockey21 said:
Instrument rating?:wink2:
Click to expand...

Working on it. "Soon".

Too conservative? No such thing. And I cancel based on forecasts. Did for this coming weekend. I must be able to get back on Sunday so my wife and I can get to work on Monday. Weather guessers are currently calling for rain this weekend. With an IR, we'd probably go. VFR? I can't get the cloud bases far enough in advance to say 'go' (leaving Thursday, returning Sunday, 48 hour forecasts aren't enough). And, this is the Pacific Northwe(s)t.

So, keep up the good judgement.
 
I haven't had a big trip this year not affected in some way by rain. From this last one my aircraft is still in Zanesville. 50:50 is optimistic, unless the majority of your trips are to the local airport for a burger on a sunny day.
 
Ghery said:
Working on it. "Soon".

Too conservative? No such thing. And I cancel based on forecasts. Did for this coming weekend. I must be able to get back on Sunday so my wife and I can get to work on Monday. Weather guessers are currently calling for rain this weekend. With an IR, we'd probably go. VFR? I can't get the cloud bases far enough in advance to say 'go' (leaving Thursday, returning Sunday, 48 hour forecasts aren't enough). And, this is the Pacific Northwe(s)t.

So, keep up the good judgement.
Click to expand...

For any trip lasting more than a day, if you can't fly IFR the only real choice is to make plans that allow alternative return dates or means. Even with today's supercomputers the reliability of a 48 hr forecast WRT VFR conditions over several hundred miles simply isn't sufficient. For IFR pilots when the chance icing isn't a factor (i.e summer and/or southern US travel) it's pretty rare to get stuck more than a day, especially if you're willing to fly a significant detour, and if you have de-icing the same pretty much goes in the colder months/areas. I can remember waiting out weather as a VFR only pilot for two or three days fairly often and once or twice for about a week (extensive stalled front blocking my way). But I can't recall canceling a planned trip of any significance, at least in the summer because it wasn't forecast to be CAVU for several days, instead I managed to arrange things so the inevitable delays didn't hurt as much.

I've got a friend who's been wanting to fly (VFR only) from here (Mpls) to somewhere in Montana all summer. He was of the opinion that he needed CAVU METARS all the way there and a forecast for something just about as good for the return several days later but somehow those requirements could never be met. What's puzzled me is that he's retired and has no reason I know of that would preclude sitting out whatever weather he didn't want to fly in on the way out and especially for the return. And what I really don't get is why he thinks that even if the long range forecast says the weather will be clear for several days that this really means such conditions are guaranteed or even likely.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top