New Student, Questioning Future

joeparrilla

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JoeP
Hi Everyone,

I am an aviation lover that has recently decided to take the step and get a PPL. I have 3 flights scheduled in the coming 3 weeks, and I am very excited.

After doing a lot of reading about the state of GA, I am having some major fears about my future. I want to fly totally for fun, I am a full time software developer and I do not plan to change that. I am interested in possibly pursuing aerobatics as a future goal.. we will see. I am frequently reading peoples claims about GA, and have read a lot of extreme statements about the inevitable collapse of GA. I have even read comments where people expect to see a near complete collapse of the industry in the coming decade... due to the aging pilot community and closing of airports.

I am making a lot of sacrifices in order to afford this, because it is truly a dream and a passion. It would really be terrible if I spent over a year and many thousands of dollars doing this, only to find that I couldnt fly for fun in the coming decades of my life. If I were rich and had all the time/money in the world... I might not care about throwing this time and money at something and then not be able to do it 10 years down the line. In my case this is a big decision, and one that I do not want to regret.

Does anyone one have any ideas on this? Obviously we cannot predict the future... but what do you expect? Will the demographic just move higher in the upper class? Will the industry just be gone all together? Is this all nonsense? I have figured that once I finish training, I could probably afford to fly a few times a month, if prices and availability change so that I can only do it a fraction as often... I wonder how worth it this is. I appreciate any input you guys have as I make this big step into a dream of mine.
 
I finally got my private certificate, something I have wanted to do for a long time. Like you, flying is a hobby for me that I do when I can, while working around an accounting career. I am 29 and I have the same thoughts as you do, but I can tell you that if we give up on the dream of flying, GA will die that much faster.

I don't believe that GA will entirely go away, although it is a possibility. I do believe that if we do what we can to promote and save it, we can make a difference in its future, so definitely get your PPL. Encourage others you know to get theirs and involve yourself in all the things that make GA awesome. We can't predict the future, but we can influence the outcome if we all stick together and encourage growth for GA. I am fascinated with aviation and have been my whole life. Unfortunately, not everyone shares my passion, but those who do will hopefully do what they can to bring GA back to what it used to be.
 
I wouldn't worry about the grumps on here predicting the demise of GA. Sure, it's gotten more expensive and slightly more regulated in the past few decades, but so have a lot of other things.

If flying is truly a passion, you won't worry too much about what the whiners have to say. There is no substitute to jumping in the cockpit on a beautiful day and flying the airplane like it's an extension of your body.

There is a possibility of GA going away. There is also a possiblity of cars, bicycles and toasters going away too. If it makes you feel any better about thing, the Chinese seem to be very interested in investing in General Aviation.
 
It won't collapse entirely. For private use, Experimental is a perfectly viable option that will allow you to miss the greatest pitfalls of the future.
 
Some of GA will change, some of the demographics will change, even some of the planes will change...then again some of GA will stay the same, tsome of the demographics will stay the same, even some of the planes stay the same. Some of it will be for the better, some of it will be for the worse. That is unfortunately, the story with many things. My recommendation is to learn to fly if that is what you want. Do not let the unknown about the future of GA stop that. If people stop flying because of the problems with the future of GA, then GA has no chance. The only way it will continue is if the GA population fights for it... no one else will.

Whether or not you continue will have a lot more to do with what your wishes, and desires are and how they fit into your ability to support your wishes and desires, probably more than anything else. Oh yeah... and some of that will change, and some will remain the same.
 
Thanks for the responses guys... and the encouragement!

Speaking about this "death" of GA... what exactly does that imply? Just a complete shutdown via FAA regulations? A slow decline and eventual standstill where only the super rich do it?

I get the apparent issues with GA, but I am confused as to how it would actually just end. I can see the use of GA aircraft for traveling being gone, considering how impractical it is vs commercial airlines, but what will stop the guy who just wants to fly around and take pictures, or do rolls in a Pitts? I am imagining that regulations would have to be the cause? Realistically I would imagine there will always be some people interested... so how does it "die"?
 
Hi Everyone,

I am an aviation lover that has recently decided to take the step and get a PPL. I have 3 flights scheduled in the coming 3 weeks, and I am very excited.

After doing a lot of reading about the state of GA, I am having some major fears about my future. I want to fly totally for fun, I am a full time software developer and I do not plan to change that. I am interested in possibly pursuing aerobatics as a future goal.. we will see. I am frequently reading peoples claims about GA, and have read a lot of extreme statements about the inevitable collapse of GA. I have even read comments where people expect to see a near complete collapse of the industry in the coming decade... due to the aging pilot community and closing of airports.

I am making a lot of sacrifices in order to afford this, because it is truly a dream and a passion. It would really be terrible if I spent over a year and many thousands of dollars doing this, only to find that I couldnt fly for fun in the coming decades of my life. If I were rich and had all the time/money in the world... I might not care about throwing this time and money at something and then not be able to do it 10 years down the line. In my case this is a big decision, and one that I do not want to regret.

Does anyone one have any ideas on this? Obviously we cannot predict the future... but what do you expect? Will the demographic just move higher in the upper class? Will the industry just be gone all together? Is this all nonsense? I have figured that once I finish training, I could probably afford to fly a few times a month, if prices and availability change so that I can only do it a fraction as often... I wonder how worth it this is. I appreciate any input you guys have as I make this big step into a dream of mine.
I too am a full time software developer that spends a substantial amount of my money aviating. I too sometimes wonder how much longer GA will be around - but at the end of the day - I know that if GA does **** out I will be kicking myself for not enjoying it while I could.
 
Thanks for the responses guys... and the encouragement!

Speaking about this "death" of GA... what exactly does that imply? Just a complete shutdown via FAA regulations? A slow decline and eventual standstill where only the super rich do it?

I get the apparent issues with GA, but I am confused as to how it would actually just end. I can see the use of GA aircraft for traveling being gone, considering how impractical it is vs commercial airlines, but what will stop the guy who just wants to fly around and take pictures, or do rolls in a Pitts? I am imagining that regulations would have to be the cause? Realistically I would imagine there will always be some people interested... so how does it "die"?

I imagine things will become increasingly expensive eventually out pricing the upper middle class at which point the costs will increase exponentially until its game over for all. Who knows if and when that will ever occur.
 
Thanks for the responses guys... and the encouragement!

Speaking about this "death" of GA... what exactly does that imply? Just a complete shutdown via FAA regulations? A slow decline and eventual standstill where only the super rich do it?

I get the apparent issues with GA, but I am confused as to how it would actually just end. I can see the use of GA aircraft for traveling being gone, considering how impractical it is vs commercial airlines, but what will stop the guy who just wants to fly around and take pictures, or do rolls in a Pitts? I am imagining that regulations would have to be the cause? Realistically I would imagine there will always be some people interested... so how does it "die"?

It won't, it will become more expensive, and the people with little money who still want to 'just fly for fun' will accept that Pt 103 Ultralights are a viable and fun form of aviating and switch to that. They may scoff that they are "flying law chairs" but when the reality of buying a flying craft for $5000 that requires no license or medical to fly and can accept fuel from the gas station down the street sinks in, if they really want to fly, they will choose this route. In the mean time, used certified aircraft are selling for less than ever, especially good ones.
 
Look to Europe. That is our future. GA is not dying, it is shrinking. If you can see yourself flying in the aviation environment of Europe, you'll be fine. If not...:(
 
I believe the GA for fun will increase and remain viable, while the GA for profit will coalesce still more, companies combining, airports that fail to modernize closing, and the movement toward smaller, but expensive, business jets increasing.

There is a lot of exciting stuff happening with homebuilt aircraft and ultralights. Some of the new motors -- based on very reliable gas-powered electrical generator engines -- offer long MTBF, easy upkeep, and real fuel economy. There are true ultralights out there that sip 1.3 gallons an hour, yet they can fly at the max UL speed of 60 mph. They have more than 3 hours of endurance and about 200 miles range (no wind). You can actually go someplace in them.
 
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Basically it will become like Europe. Expensive gas, fees for ATC, fees for airports; limited availability of airports, and outright exclusion of GA from some airports/airspace.

Thankfully we have som good safeguards. Federal Obligations fend off local politicians from closing most federally funded airports. We have the right combination of relative wealth, congressional support, and infrastructure that will keep GA alive.

BTW, thank the next biz jet owner you meet. Their existence is what keeps the rest of GA afloat. Sad but true.
 
It won't, it will become more expensive, and the people with little money who still want to 'just fly for fun' will accept that Pt 103 Ultralights are a viable and fun form of aviating and switch to that. They may scoff that they are "flying law chairs" but when the reality of buying a flying craft for $5000 that requires no license or medical to fly and can accept fuel from the gas station down the street sinks in, if they really want to fly, they will choose this route. In the mean time, used certified aircraft are selling for less than ever, especially good ones.

Ok, this actually makes me feel better.. and is more of what I imagined. The way people talk, I feel like some FAA regulation is going to say everything is gone except for drones and commercial jets, or some switch on GA is just going to be turned off. In reality, I just love being in the air... if it has to be in some ULA then so be it.

I dont know the economic trends in GA, so from those who do... if the cost does sky rocket to the point of it being an unrealistic hobby for the average guy... why would this happen and how long would it take based on current trends?

Also, what exactly is the European GA scene like?
 
Ok, this actually makes me feel better.. and is more of what I imagined. The way people talk, I feel like some FAA regulation is going to say everything is gone except for drones and commercial jets, or some switch on GA is just going to be turned off. In reality, I just love being in the air... if it has to be in some ULA then so be it.

I dont know the economic trends in GA, so from those who do... if the cost does sky rocket to the point of it being an unrealistic hobby for the average guy... why would this happen and how long would it take based on current trends?

Also, what exactly is the European GA scene like?

The FAA isn't likely to write a regulation directly banning GA as we know it (that would kill some of their jobs) - instead they will keep piling on other regulations to ensure they have jobs and can grow (which is where we go wrong with government). They will indirectly kill themselves though as the regulation becomes overbearing and people just hang up their wings as a result.
 
Basically it will become like Europe. Expensive gas, fees for ATC, fees for airports; limited availability of airports, and outright exclusion of GA from some airports/airspace.

Thankfully we have som good safeguards. Federal Obligations fend off local politicians from closing most federally funded airports. We have the right combination of relative wealth, congressional support, and infrastructure that will keep GA alive.

BTW, thank the next biz jet owner you meet. Their existence is what keeps the rest of GA afloat. Sad but true.
This is the defeatest attitude that has doomed physicians in this country. We need to take a lesson from the travesty of the AMA(read for us AOPA, and other letter organizations) that if we do not fight for the future of GA, then things will be just like Europe a few years or more from now, and then we have no one to blame but ourselves. If you look at what some of the companies that have supported GA in the past, I think what they are doing now supports the notion that their future is no longer GA in the US but is in supporting aviation in other countries such as China. If I remember correctly even AOPA is going to China.
 
I think the "death of GA" predictions come from those heavily invested in the business/commercial side of GA. People who depend on maintenance and fuel sales for their livelihoods have reason to be glum. Conversely, when small airports and FBOs close, it's alarming to the folks who own certificated piston planes and small jets.

On the recreational side? There's still a waiting list, years long, for hangar space at the reliever airport near me. Another airport north of the metro area is aggressively adding hangars. Many of the new tenants there own experimentals which don't require FBOs and licensed A&P mechanics to keep them running.

As long as there's passion, gas cans, and long, narrow tracts of land that can be rolled and mowed, small recreational aircraft will be able to keep flying. Some small airports will evolve to serve recreational fliers, especially if that's all we have left.

IMO it is not GA itself, but those stuck in the traditional GA maintenance and support model, who have one foot in the tar pit.
 
Remember that GA has many different facets that you can choose to pursue, from ultralights to Gulfstreams. The latter is probably out of your price range, the former is probably in it, and then there's lots in between.

How much money you choose to spend on flying is a personal choice and dependent mainly on your mission. For the traveling we do, the 310 is a good fit. If all you want to do is be in the sky, ultralights, LSAs, etc.

If tomorrow I could never fly again, I would not regret all the money spent.
 
IMO it's better to regret spending the money IF your experience gets cut short vs regretting never having the experience at all.
 
This is the defeatest attitude that has doomed physicians in this country. We need to take a lesson from the travesty of the AMA(read for us AOPA, and other letter organizations) that if we do not fight for the future of GA, then things will be just like Europe a few years or more from now, and then we have no one to blame but ourselves. If you look at what some of the companies that have supported GA in the past, I think what they are doing now supports the notion that their future is no longer GA in the US but is in supporting aviation in other countries such as China. If I remember correctly even AOPA is going to China.

I should mention that I personally don't believe that will happen, but if GA were to die, that's likely the path it would take. You're right though, good advocasy is critical to maintaining a fertile ground for aviation.

I also believe that the US will always be the worlds premiere destination for flight training. As the military produces more UAS pilots and fewer "real" pilots, the demand for training of domestic pilots will increase. The higher minimums will keep more airline track pilots flying GA to build hours.
 
Remember that GA has many different facets that you can choose to pursue, from ultralights to Gulfstreams. The latter is probably out of your price range, the former is probably in it, and then there's lots in between.

How much money you choose to spend on flying is a personal choice and dependent mainly on your mission. For the traveling we do, the 310 is a good fit. If all you want to do is be in the sky, ultralights, LSAs, etc.

If tomorrow I could never fly again, I would not regret all the money spent.

Thanks so much everyone, you are removing some of my doubt!

I see myself being what I would call a recreational flier. My love for aviation started with a love for WW1 bi planes. I plan to use my PPL to just go for fun scenic flights with my girlfriend, take some cool pictures, see things from a new perspective, etc. I would love to eventually take some aerobatics classes and learn to have some more fun.

I definitely wont be using GA as a means of transportation. At most, maybe I would take a weekend trip up the coast or something like that. My girlfriend thinks I am insane because when a plane passes overhead I stare in awe until it dissapears, even still today. I am just in love with everything about airplanes. I fly RC, I build plastic models, I read aviation books... I just live it every day... so I thought a PPL was a natural thing for me to.

So would you say the the "recreational" flier like myself is a good candidate for a PPL, even with the increasing economic issues in GA? As of now I would say I could confidently set aside something like $1200 per month for flying. That is not including lessons.. as I have already saved away for my entire PPL costs. That is just what I could see myself spending realistically once I have the PPL.
 
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Ok, this actually makes me feel better.. and is more of what I imagined. The way people talk, I feel like some FAA regulation is going to say everything is gone except for drones and commercial jets, or some switch on GA is just going to be turned off. In reality, I just love being in the air... if it has to be in some ULA then so be it.

I dont know the economic trends in GA, so from those who do... if the cost does sky rocket to the point of it being an unrealistic hobby for the average guy... why would this happen and how long would it take based on current trends?

Also, what exactly is the European GA scene like?

The primary factor here and in Europe is the price of fuel. When I started flying over 20 years ago I could get fuel on the field for $1.25 a gallon. 4friends and I thought that was high so we bought an old fuel truck and would take it to the fuel rack at the refinery down the road and fill it for 75¢ a gallon. Now fuel prices here are $5 a gallon. Everything else though, the costs of maintenance has pretty much stayed the same. There are some new options in avionics that are quite expensive and eventually everyone will have to spend some money on them to comply with ADSB requirements. The price of the aircraft on the used market has dropped considerably in the last 5 years though and you can pretty much buy an older plane and equip it with modern avionics and come out on par with the cost of the same plane a decade ago.
 
If you can spend $1200/month on flying then you're an easy GA candidate, especially if you're mostly thinking of going up just for fun or $100 hamburgers. If you only need 2 seats, you could even consider LSA and spend even less money both on the plane and that you'd only need sport pilot and no medical.
 
I think the "death of GA" predictions come from those heavily invested in the business/commercial side of GA. People who depend on maintenance and fuel sales for their livelihoods have reason to be glum. Conversely, when small airports and FBOs close, it's alarming to the folks who own certificated piston planes and small jets.

On the recreational side? There's still a waiting list, years long, for hangar space at the reliever airport near me. Another airport north of the metro area is aggressively adding hangars. Many of the new tenants there own experimentals which don't require FBOs and licensed A&P mechanics to keep them running.

As long as there's passion, gas cans, and long, narrow tracts of land that can be rolled and mowed, small recreational aircraft will be able to keep flying. Some small airports will evolve to serve recreational fliers, especially if that's all we have left.

IMO it is not GA itself, but those stuck in the traditional GA maintenance and support model, who have one foot in the tar pit.

Very interesting point about hangar space. I also find myself wondering who is making these statements and what their role in GA is. The school where I am getting my PPL is currently solidly booked with students for every slot. I had to settle for a permanent Sunday spot when I wanted a Saturday just because they were so busy. So whats the deal? Things dont seem as bad as some claim...

And yes, hopefully all we need is gas and an airstrip. As long so some regulation doesnt somehow make that illegal. I get a bad feeling with all of the talks of UAVs being used for commercial reasons. I feel like that will effect regulations in a huge way. Having UAV's and humans flying together sounds like a nightmare waiting to happen.
 
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Pilots as a breed are cheap, the cost of fuel and the cost of avionics in a declining economy make them whine.
 
The primary factor here and in Europe is the price of fuel. When I started flying over 20 years ago I could get fuel on the field for $1.25 a gallon. 4friends and I thought that was high so we bought an old fuel truck and would take it to the fuel rack at the refinery down the road and fill it for 75¢ a gallon. Now fuel prices here are $5 a gallon. Everything else though, the costs of maintenance has pretty much stayed the same. There are some new options in avionics that are quite expensive and eventually everyone will have to spend some money on them to comply with ADSB requirements. The price of the aircraft on the used market has dropped considerably in the last 5 years though and you can pretty much buy an older plane and equip it with modern avionics and come out on par with the cost of the same plane a decade ago.

Ah yes fuel. But then again that hits every market. Look at cars. People arent looking to hybrids for no reason. Then again there will always be the guy who wants to stretch for the Corvette even though it impractical. I guess its a matter of passion, and hanging on as long as you can until it just doesnt make sense economically.
 
Ah yes fuel. But then again that hits every market. Look at cars. People arent looking to hybrids for no reason. Then again there will always be the guy who wants to stretch for the Corvette even though it impractical. I guess its a matter of passion, and hanging on as long as you can until it just doesnt make sense economically.

Corvette gets twice the fuel mileage or better of the typical SUV.;)
 
You aren't driving it correctly if you are getting good fuel economy.
 
Corvette gets twice the fuel mileage or better of the typical SUV.;)

HAha well yes SUV's as well. I know plenty of people who suck it up and drive a completely impractical car. This really isnt much different... although all of my friends seem to think it is. "Youre going to fly??! are you nuts thats SOO expensive!", as he gets into his 10mpg V8 and spends $100 filling the tank. Its all about priority in my opinion. If its something I want, I can sacrifice other luxuries for it.
 
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HAha well yes SUV's as well. I know plenty of people who suck it up and drive a completely impractical car. This really isnt much different... although all of my friends seem to think it is. "Youre going to fly??! are you nuts thats SOO expensive!", as he gets into his 10mpg V8.

Yeah, there are many ways to go about aviating, especially if all you want to do is fly about and have some fun. Assuming you have no medical problems that limit what aircraft you can fly, your mention of aerobatics is a perfect example of how one can have a great deal of fun inexpensively. There are many single seat experimental built aerobatic aircraft that are available between $10-$40k that will cost less than $60hr to operate. Are they the baddest assed things out there or the most practical to take a trip in? No, but they will allow you to fly and even compete in aerobatics and will fly you across the country if you want.
 
If you can spend $1200/month on flying then you're an easy GA candidate, especially if you're mostly thinking of going up just for fun or $100 hamburgers. If you only need 2 seats, you could even consider LSA and spend even less money both on the plane and that you'd only need sport pilot and no medical.

I am a partner with two others in a very nice Comanche. I really don't add up all the expenses, but I'm not sure that I spend more than $1200/mo on average. I also use the plane for real transportation a decent amount. (I.e 5 people from PHX to Cabo San Lucas, PHX to SFO, DEN, etc...) so, it's _definately_ do-able. Once you get your PPL, I highly recommend joining a club or small partnership. I really think that's the way to go these days.

Looking at rentals, jeez, I'd never fly if I had to pay those rates! Plus, you get nickled and dimed for sales tax, etc, etc.
 
If you can spend $1200/month on flying then you're an easy GA candidate, especially if you're mostly thinking of going up just for fun or $100 hamburgers. If you only need 2 seats, you could even consider LSA and spend even less money both on the plane and that you'd only need sport pilot and no medical.

I considered the sport route, but figured the total PPL would be a better choice. Its costing me more time and money, but I always felt like if I went sport I would wish I had the gone all the way.

But yes, I think $1200 a month is reasonable for me to spend. Sure I would have to cut out some other luxuries, but that is expected. Its actually really awesome to know that my budget is enough to have some fun. I always thought aviation was reserved for the rich, which I am very far from being.
 
I am a partner with two others in a very nice Comanche. I really don't add up all the expenses, but I'm not sure that I spend more than $1200/mo on average. I also use the plane for real transportation a decent amount. (I.e 5 people from PHX to Cabo San Lucas, PHX to SFO, DEN, etc...) so, it's _definately_ do-able. Once you get your PPL, I highly recommend joining a club or small partnership. I really think that's the way to go these days.

Looking at rentals, jeez, I'd never fly if I had to pay those rates! Plus, you get nickled and dimed for sales tax, etc, etc.

Very cool. So I am in the range.. which makes me feel much better. I knew I could afford training since I just put the money away for it before hand... but I always feared of not being able to afford to fly often enough once I was done. It seems like if I do it correctly I can.
 
JoeP -- Welcome to POA.

I have a little different perspective. Do you like flying? Is the expense worth it to you to go flying? All that money you pay towards getting your ticket goes toward...getting you up in the air.

The really neat thing about flying is that you get immediate bang for your buck. I've never paid for an hour of flight time and felt that it wasn't worth it.

If GA were to die tomorrow, sure I would be quite bummed, but I wouldn't feel like I wasted a dime of the money I've put toward it.
 
Yeah, there are many ways to go about aviating, especially if all you want to do is fly about and have some fun. Assuming you have no medical problems that limit what aircraft you can fly, your mention of aerobatics is a perfect example of how one can have a great deal of fun inexpensively. There are many single seat experimental built aerobatic aircraft that are available between $10-$40k that will cost less than $60hr to operate. Are they the baddest assed things out there or the most practical to take a trip in? No, but they will allow you to fly and even compete in aerobatics and will fly you across the country if you want.

Yes, aerobatics really appeals to me the most. If I could afford to do that, I would definitely feel good about getting a PPL. My worries were just of my flying "career" being cut very short because of this GA "death". Finding that I spent over 10k on a PPL, only to fly for a few years.
 
Thirty years ago people were asking the same questions and giving the same answers, there was just no internet to let the worry-warts search for it.
 
JoeP -- Welcome to POA.

I have a little different perspective. Do you like flying? Is the expense worth it to you to go flying? All that money you pay towards getting your ticket goes toward...getting you up in the air.

The really neat thing about flying is that you get immediate bang for your buck. I've never paid for an hour of flight time and felt that it wasn't worth it.

If GA were to die tomorrow, sure I would be quite bummed, but I wouldn't feel like I wasted a dime of the money I've put toward it.

Thanks, glad to be here! It is definitely cool that even through my training I am getting the joy of flying every time. Looking at it that way, the cost of learning seems alot better. Its not like I am just paying to be in a classroom.

My first flight is this Sunday (hopefully weather will be OK). I am starting a very exciting journey... hopefully I can continue to do this for a long time.
 
Yes, aerobatics really appeals to me the most. If I could afford to do that, I would definitely feel good about getting a PPL. My worries were just of my flying "career" being cut very short because of this GA "death". Finding that I spent over 10k on a PPL, only to fly for a few years.

You shouldn't spend near $10k to get a PPL, and GA will not shut down. BTW, you want to fly at least 3 times a week to make good progress, flying once a week or less is the road to spending $10k and taking 70hrs to get a PPL.
 
Thirty years ago people were asking the same questions and giving the same answers, there was just no internet to let the worry-warts search for it.

:) I am very much obsessing about it. Its just this insane worry in the back of my mind... where I finish my PPL, get my certificate, and then GA collapses. All small airports close, the FAA says no more flights other than commercial, and I just sit back wondering what I did.

It is easily the biggest time/money commitment I have ever made in my short 23 years of life. So naturally my mind is constantly worrying. Not to mention constantly being bugged by others who question me and wonder why I would spend so much cash on this.
 
You shouldn't spend near $10k to get a PPL, and GA will not shut down. BTW, you want to fly at least 3 times a week to make good progress, flying once a week or less is the road to spending $10k and taking 70hrs to get a PPL.

Trust me, I know. The problem is I work 40+ hours a week which leaves me with only weekends to fly. If I could fly every day I would. I am going to speak to my instructor to try to fit in as much as I can, but I am just trying to be realistic.
 
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