[NA] Practical tariff impact

If I'm starting with chatgpt 70% of the time, the other 30% is for something visual that youtube shows. So, I'm with you on that for sure.
It's mainly because that's where the content is these days.

That's just not how it works. Current AI is much more sophisticated than simply counting the number of times an opinion is mentioned.
If it's an LLM, isn't that how it works? What is being done to make it better?

They absolutely are trying to filter that. I can't really give examples because it would reveal where I work, but at a high level weighting of sources both manually and automatically is hugely important and happening constantly. Heck, the manual part is a constant source of controversy and debate.
How on earth do you filter the entire internet for what's right and wrong? An awful lot of humans can't get that right.

Because it was trained using Excel date handling? :D
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How on earth do you filter the entire internet for what's right and wrong? An awful lot of humans can't get that right.
Yep. Coming to grips with the reality that AI is already better at distinguishing fact from fiction than many people is not going to make you any more confident that humans will have a role to play in the economy of the future. It's not perfect and "horses for courses", don't use an LLM to do your taxes, but it's also not fooled by conspiracy theories.

And, unlike humans, AI is getting smarter every day...
 
Yep. Coming to grips with the reality that AI is already better at distinguishing fact from fiction than many people is not going to make you any more confident that humans will have a role to play in the economy of the future. It's not perfect and "horses for courses", don't use an LLM to do your taxes, but it's also not fooled by conspiracy theories.

And, unlike humans, AI is getting smarter every day...
Or are we just getting dumber?
 
Any validity to the rumor that may 11 is the last ship from China to the U.S.?
 
Any validity to the rumor that may 11 is the last ship from China to the U.S.?
Where did you hear this? I'm not seeing it in any official reports.

Australia, however, is moving some naval assets towards the South China Sea in response to some aggressive moves by the Chinese Navy.
 
Where did you hear this? I'm not seeing it in any official reports.

Australia, however, is moving some naval assets towards the South China Sea in response to some aggressive moves by the Chinese Navy.

Social media and my version would be a left wing echo chamber but I am smart enough to be skeptical.
However 1 if it is true or 2 if it isn't but spreads, the shelves are going to get ransacked again.
I saw a handful of reels with people stating they were cutting off sending ships here (the last being 5-11) and the ports were starting to be bare.
Curious the level of validity to these "reports".


Please don't click if you cant watch it w/o crapping on one side or the other. I am seeing this and simply wondering if there is truth to it.
If I could remove his comments about our current administration and just include the things he is stating, I would do so. This is the type of thing I am seeing.
 
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Social media and my version would be a left wing echo chamber but I am smart enough to be skeptical.
However 1 if it is true or 2 if it isn't but spreads, the shelves are going to get ransacked again.
I saw a handful of reels with people stating they were cutting oof sending ships here (the last being 5-11) and the ports were starting to be bare.
Curious the level of validity to these "reports".


Please don't click if you cant watch it w/o crapping on one side or the other. I am seeing this and simply wondering if there is truth to it.
If I could remove his comments about our current administration and just include the things he is stating, I would do so. This is the type of thing I am seeing.
Not literally last, no. But down by 50% or more. So, yeah, there will be shortages until things stabilize.

 
Social media and my version would be a left wing echo chamber but I am smart enough to be skeptical.
However 1 if it is true or 2 if it isn't but spreads, the shelves are going to get ransacked again.
I saw a handful of reels with people stating they were cutting off sending ships here (the last being 5-11) and the ports were starting to be bare.
Curious the level of validity to these "reports".


Please don't click if you cant watch it w/o crapping on one side or the other. I am seeing this and simply wondering if there is truth to it.
If I could remove his comments about our current administration and just include the things he is stating, I would do so. This is the type of thing I am seeing.
Per FT

"""
The declines in order volumes have fed through to landings in Los Angeles, according to shipping data analysts Sea-Intelligence, which reported a surge in “blank sailings”, where scheduled vessels from China were being cancelled.
"""

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And commentary on Air Freight (since we're all pilots and the impact on airplanes is all we care about at the end of the day!)

"""
*Airfreight volumes have also fallen sharply, according to US industry association the Airforwarders Association, with its members’ bookings from China falling roughly 30 per cent.“A lot of members have just stopped receiving orders from China,” said executive director Brandon Fried. “It’s also creating a whipsaw effect on prices and booking rates as traders reacted to each piece of news from the White House.”
*Hong Kong freight forwarder Easyway Air Freight said business from China to the US dropped roughly 50 per cent following the tariff increases.

"""
 
I wrote a long post but deleted it before posting it. It went into logical reasons why, but I don’t want to get this thread locked. Five word summary, “I don’t like the tariffs”
 
@pfarber @Cap'n Jack

China has been poor for hundreds of years. Yet, only after the one child policy was implemented did the birth rate drop significantly. Was it applied unevenly? Very likely.
Did it have an effect on birth rates? Extremely likely; it could be via social engineering, incremental cost such as the basket fine... The birth rate dropped significantly in China in the early 70s when this was passed and has plateaued pretty to a low number for a few decades before dropping even lower in the last decade.

Tim
China is STILL poor. Google says the average 2023 salary for URBAN workers was 120,000RMB HAHAHAHAHAHA Ok, if you cherry pick the highest paying jobs (IT, FINANCE) note they never pick 'blue collar' workers who might get 3000RMB working 12 hrs 6 days a week.


Umm... one child was started in 1979, not 'the early 70s'. I'm sure the enforcement of the policy was very haphazard depending on the location and who was in charge of the enforcement.

Of all the people I met while I was in China (was married to a wonder Chinese woman at the time) none were only children. Family sizes were 2-5 children on average.

I do think that from the 2000's on the low birth rate is a combination of women wanted education vs family and the gender imbalance. Shung Nu is still a real thing. And a divorced woman with a kid is huge, nay insurmountable obstacle for women.
 
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China is STILL poor.
There are still hundreds of millions of poor people in China. But it's also worth noting that there are more middle class chinese people than there are people in the entire US.
 
China is STILL poor. Google says the average 2023 salary for URBAN workers was 120,000RMB HAHAHAHAHAHA Ok, if you cherry pick the highest paying jobs (IT, FINANCE) note they never pick 'blue collar' workers who might get 3000RMB working 12 hrs 6 days a week
I've only been in the cities. But it appears like the income distribution seem similar to here. I don't mean they make the same money as here, but I'm looking at apparent purchasing power. I see some poor people, and a lot of middle class people. In comparison, places like Austin, Texas, San Francisco, San Diego, and Lincoln Nebraska look like there are more poor people- I see more beggars and homeless in the USA than there.
 
There are still hundreds of millions of poor people in China. But it's also worth noting that there are more middle class chinese people than there are people in the entire US.
Did you google that result? MIddle class is meaningless without defining it. I am not a China expert, but I have seen it with my own eyes and it does not match the 'reports' you find online.

Have you been outside the US and visited any Asian countries? Not trying to call you out, but if all you're going to do is google stuff then you have no real point of reference, only propaganda.
 
I've only been in the cities. But it appears like the income distribution seem similar to here. I don't mean they make the same money as here, but I'm looking at apparent purchasing power. I see some poor people, and a lot of middle class people. In comparison, places like Austin, Texas, San Francisco, San Diego, and Lincoln Nebraska look like there are more poor people- I see more beggars and homeless in the USA than there.
You have not seen China if all you do is stay in the cities. You do know that unless you are born there, or marry, you cannot live in any city you like? You can of course buy a Hukou but if you can afford that then you are definitely NOT poor. That's one way of keeping the poor/rural folks out.

You never see poor people in tourist areas. Wanna know why? The police force them out. You might see a beggar at shrines/temples but most of them are scams.

I don't want to seem like I am bashing China. I think Chinese people are smart and hardworking. My wife missed her home very much, her daughter didn't want to immigrate to the US. Most of the extended family I met were kind and generous. But that was becuase they were well off. Being a teacher or working for the government or in banking meant that they had a life well above factory workers and farmers.

The government and corruption is the real issue.
 
You have not seen China if all you do is stay in the cities. You do know that unless you are born there, or marry, you cannot live in any city you like? You can of course buy a Hukou but if you can afford that then you are definitely NOT poor. That's one way of keeping the poor/rural folks out.
Yes, I know there are restrictions on moving, even within a city. Note that the cities are where my customers live/work. Just like in the USA, there aren't many chemists in the rural areas.
You never see poor people in tourist areas. Wanna know why? The police force them out. You might see a beggar at shrines/temples but most of them are scams.
Why did you bring up tourist areas? I see them, but that's not where I spend most of my time. OTOH, I see where people have made vegetable patches- within cloverleafs near highways or untended patches of land. The first image was across from my hotel- they were growing bok choi, carrots, and other vegetables. They watered their crop by hand every morning from the canal. I also saw someone bulldoze most of their plants- I don't know if they were squatters. The people in the second image can't be very wealthy.JAK_5937.jpg
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The government and corruption is the real issue.
Not like there isn't any of that here.
 
That was in Q4 of 2024. Before the great April 2nd cut off my nose to spite my face day.

Tim
'"great April 2nd cut off my nose to spite my face day."

the perfect analysis!
 
My experience is a couple of years old so things may have advanced. Deep neural networks do some pretty amazing things making non-obvious connections. But two things really limited their usefulness when I was actively using them: they require a great deal of data (carefully curated data) to learn and make those connections, someone has to tell them what criteria to use to determine “goodness”. I don’t see general purpose AI taking over things that don’t have lots of data to train them. (By lots I’m talking multiple millions of pieces of data.)
Does anybody here know if that amount of data to train has changed significantly?
Bernard Marr defined 4 categories of AI:
Reactive - spam filters, netflix suggestions, IBM's Deep Blue chess. Programmed to provide a predictable output based on inputs
Limited memory - learns from the past & build knowledge by observing actions or data. Autonomous vehicles
Theory of Mind - true decision-making. Unfortunately, behavior based on emotions is very fluid in human communication, this is unlikely in near future.
Self-Aware - the machine is aware of its emotions & of others, has needs, wants & desires as well. We don't have the hardware or algorithms for this yet.

Of course my favorite is a 1976 article in SIGART (ACM Special Interest Group on Artificial Intelligence, yes, the field is more than 50 yrs old) is Drew McDermott's article "Artificial Intelligence meets Natural Stupidity". If anyone's interested, I'll email you the PDF. I make my beginning CS students read it, along with Vannevar Bush's 1945 article "As We May Think".

Or go back to 1950 and read Alan Turing's "Computing Machinger & Intelligence" (yes, that Turing)
 
https://www.discounttire.com/


The foundational document I used on the military/OEM side was MIL-H-46855. The gist of it is do a task analysis first, with plenty of end user representation. Look at the environment, etc. Employ mockups, walkthroughs, and prototypes. What happens is you iteratively allocate functions, some to the human, some to automation. Test, verify, and validate. And with most of the weapon systems I'm familiar with, there is always a human in the loop. Maybe distant eyeballs, but always there.

Don't know if Discount Tire is ready for that yet. They will watch the technology, and make their cost/benefit analysis when necessary.
Whatever Discount Tire decides, hope it improves processing time. Had a nail in the tire yesterday (Friday), took almost 2 hours because they're so busy. Took over an hour just to get it into a stall to see what the problem was.
 
Bernard Marr defined 4 categories of AI:
Reactive - spam filters, netflix suggestions, IBM's Deep Blue chess. Programmed to provide a predictable output based on inputs
Limited memory - learns from the past & build knowledge by observing actions or data. Autonomous vehicles
Theory of Mind - true decision-making. Unfortunately, behavior based on emotions is very fluid in human communication, this is unlikely in near future.
Self-Aware - the machine is aware of its emotions & of others, has needs, wants & desires as well. We don't have the hardware or algorithms for this yet.

Of course my favorite is a 1976 article in SIGART (ACM Special Interest Group on Artificial Intelligence, yes, the field is more than 50 yrs old) is Drew McDermott's article "Artificial Intelligence meets Natural Stupidity". If anyone's interested, I'll email you the PDF. I make my beginning CS students read it, along with Vannevar Bush's 1945 article "As We May Think".

Or go back to 1950 and read Alan Turing's "Computing Machinger & Intelligence" (yes, that Turing)
I’d love to read that article.

I’ve been following and dabbling with AI since at least the mid 80’s. The deep neural networks that have made such news (and frankly some very impressive results) were described in concept in the 70’s but the computing scale just wasn’t there until 2000’s.

Like so much tech it’s got promise but gets oversold due to not recognizing limitations.

My experience with them raises two problems: 1) the input data must be very carefully curated or absolutely untouched real world data. Unlike garbage in-garbage out, bad data breaks the machine. It is shockingly easy to train a neural net to use the wrong things to choose. 2) the opacity of HOW the neural net decided on a result exacerbates the data issue. I know there was a call for tools to enable visibility into the decision but I don’t know what progress has been made.
 
I’d love to read that article.

I’ve been following and dabbling with AI since at least the mid 80’s. The deep neural networks that have made such news (and frankly some very impressive results) were described in concept in the 70’s but the computing scale just wasn’t there until 2000’s.

Like so much tech it’s got promise but gets oversold due to not recognizing limitations.

My experience with them raises two problems: 1) the input data must be very carefully curated or absolutely untouched real world data. Unlike garbage in-garbage out, bad data breaks the machine. It is shockingly easy to train a neural net to use the wrong things to choose. 2) the opacity of HOW the neural net decided on a result exacerbates the data issue. I know there was a call for tools to enable visibility into the decision but I don’t know what progress has been made.
Search for "Artificial Intelligence meets Natural Stupidity" and download from Florida Tech, it's a PDF.

Search for "Computing Machinger & Intelligence" and download from Dept of umbc.edu, another PDF at University of Maryland.

A real pain that you can't get the link, the PDF automatically downloads.
 
Did you google that result? MIddle class is meaningless without defining it. I am not a China expert, but I have seen it with my own eyes and it does not match the 'reports' you find online.

Have you been outside the US and visited any Asian countries? Not trying to call you out, but if all you're going to do is google stuff then you have no real point of reference, only propaganda.
Yes. I've visited about 30 countries and done work in 10.

Not sure why you have an axe to grind with google and think it's propoganda though. It's no worse than going to a newsstand in 1975 and making a decision to read a tabloid versus a legitimate newspaper.
 
If Trump polled many Americans, they probably would have been fine letting Hollywood starve, lol.
So you’re saying that tariffs cause the domestic industry they are placed on to starve? So why tariffs on all these red-blooded American industries like auto manufacturing? I thought the promise is that they would make domestic industry great again!

In reality, Americans will care when their movie outing at Christmas to see Elf 5 or whatever with the family costs $150.
 
So you’re saying that tariffs cause the domestic industry they are placed on to starve? So why tariffs on all these red-blooded American industries like auto manufacturing? I thought the promise is that they would make domestic industry great again!

In reality, Americans will care when their movie outing at Christmas to see Elf 5 or whatever with the family costs $150.
Elf 5 will still cost the same. The problem is that the Chinese knock-off of Elf 5 will cost $300. :D
 
Ok, impromptu poll. When is the last time any of you has seen a foreign movie, in any format? (cinema, stream, physical media)
 
Ok, impromptu poll. When is the last time any of you has seen a foreign movie, in any format? (cinema, stream, physical media)
For me, all the time. There are a ton on Netflix.
And anyone who's interested in WW2 (or the first one) would be missing out on some of the best entries by ring fencing themselves to domestic movies only.
 
So you’re saying that tariffs cause the domestic industry they are placed on to starve? So why tariffs on all these red-blooded American industries like auto manufacturing? I thought the promise is that they would make domestic industry great again!

In reality, Americans will care when their movie outing at Christmas to see Elf 5 or whatever with the family costs $150.
The movie industry has been putting out terrible products ever since Covid happened and the writer's strike occurred. Just revamps of old movies and poorly executed sequels with the same old actors. Americans aren't really going to the movie theaters too much these days anyway.
 
Ok, impromptu poll. When is the last time any of you has seen a foreign movie, in any format? (cinema, stream, physical media)
Does it count if I've been indirectly-forced to watch Bollywood movies on flights to Dubai when every other seat has them streaming nonstop, lol.
 
Ok, impromptu poll. When is the last time any of you has seen a foreign movie, in any format? (cinema, stream, physical media)
Do Brazzers "documentaries" filmed on Brazilian beaches count as foreign movies?
If so, then I've seen foreign films... *ahem* recently.

If not, then approximately last week. It turns out Korean cinema is good at making zombie movies!
And isn't stuff like "Squid Game" a foreign movie? That was a massive hit.

I've been forced to watch Bollywood movies on flights to Dubai when every other seat has them streaming nonstop, lol.
I sincerely dislike Bollywood movies with one exception: "RRR"
Entertaining, violent and with all the absolutely ridiculous bollywood stunts we know and love. Replete with people breaking into song and dance at the most absurd times.
 
“Play ball on the equalization agreements”
The US has a trade surpus with Australia.
Under the US-Australia trade agreement-Australia had almost no tariffs on goods imported from the US.

Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from Australian goods. Despite the prexisting trade agreement Then exempted some products.

Similarly, after prolonged negotiations, US, Mexico, and Canada had a free trade agreement, NAFTA, proposed by president Reagan, signed by president Bush, ratified by both houses of congress. Trump felt this unfair, and insisted that it be renegotiated.
It was renegotiated, by Trump administration- and Trump signed the agreement (USMCA)

Orwellian language, “equalization agreements”

Ditto the declaration of a worldwide “emergency” in order to impose these tariffs, for which he otherwise wouldn’t have authority to impose.
 
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