[NA-ish] Military Question (Israel v Iran)

ArrowFlyer86

ArrowFlyer86

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Last year I recall hearing about Israel attacking and disabling Iranian air defense systems. At the time it seemed like a prelude to a bigger attack, and now it seems clear that worked to their strategic advantage.

Despite being an airplane nerd, I'm not super familiar with what goes into air defense system. I was under the impression it ranged from shoulder fired portable systems, to SAMs on vehicles, to complete hidden ground installations -- each with their own advantages and capabilities. Some requiring radar installations, others not.

My question is how did a country as militaristic as Iran not replace their air defenses since the last bombardment? I would have assumed that'd be priority numero uno. From what I've read Israel's air force seems to have had a field day hammering them all over the country with near impunity. Doubly so given they went ahead and hit SHIFT+DELETE on their whole bunker group of Iranian airforce guys. I'm surprised Russia hadn't sold them their S400 systems or whatever; seems like it'd be an easy sale to an (air) defenseless country.

Very possible I'm just misinformed on what's actually happening, but I would have thought someone like Iran would have the latest and greatest Russian SAMs all over the place.

Edit: Anyways my question is how can it be that hard for such a militaristic country with some technically advanced friends to get air defenses?
 
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After the beeper attack. Don't provoke Israel. That was next level.

I suspect that some of our biggest enemies in Iran and Russia aren't nearly as well equipped as feared or as they lead on.
 
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Racerx said:
After the beeper attack. Don't provoke Israel. That was next level
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Admittedly at the time the beeper attack kind of concerned me because it seemed antagonistic without a purpose.

But two weeks later when things had played out I was like... "huh... That's was actually pretty smart" (I just didn't want America to get roped in as a security guarantor against Lebanon/Hez unless necessary).

Only downside is that attack doesn't work twice. Hezbollah, or what's left of them, learned not to buy their beepers from "Mazel tov Electronics" in Tel Aviv even if they're offering a great BOGO deal.

But with the air defenses I was shocked that how many months later Iran still had their pants down.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Admittedly at the time the beeper attack kind of concerned me because it seemed antagonistic without a purpose.

But two weeks later when things had played out I was like... "huh... That's was actually pretty smart" (I just didn't want America to get roped in as a security guarantor against Lebanon/Hez unless necessary).

Only downside is that attack doesn't work twice. Hezbollah, or what's left of them, learned not to buy their beepers from "Mazel tov Electronics" in Tel Aviv even if they're offering a great BOGO deal.

But with the air defenses I was shocked that how many months later Iran still had their pants down.
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I think it's less pants down and more those dress slacks were actually pajama pants.
 
Arab militaries (and I know Iran is Persian) are organized to defend the powerful elites who run those nations from domestic challengers, not from foreign threats. Plus they are corrupt on a scale that Westerners can hardly fathom. Here we have a first-world nation, where the military has some realistic aspirations to being a meritocracy, that understands that a theocratic sixth-world nation wishes for its destruction.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
My question is how did a country as militaristic as Iran not replace their air defenses since the last bombardment? I would have assumed that'd be priority numero uno. From what I've read Israel's air force seems to have had a field day hammering them all over the country with near impunity. Doubly so given they went ahead and hit SHIFT+DELETE on their whole bunker group of Iranian airforce guys. I'm surprised Russia hadn't sold them their S400 systems or whatever; seems like it'd be an easy sale to an (air) defenseless country.
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My guess is that Russia needs every S400 it can build to replace its losses to the Ukraine, so no (or very few) new ones are going to Iran. Iran has (always? usually? mostly? sometimes?) relied on foreign built air defense systems because they are very complex systems, and nobody other than the Russians (possibly the Chinese) is gonna sell them anything these days.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
…My question is how did a country as militaristic as Iran not replace their air defenses since the last bombardment? ..
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Couple of things to keep in mind, first being command and control structure. Iran used to be top down, which meant detect - identify went all the way up the chain for somebody to decide to intercept or engage, then the order/orders have to go all the way back down the chain. That takes comms and if those aren’t available, there’s no room to take the initiative.

Second, depending on what was lost in the last strike, replacement bits and pieces may have had to come from Russia who may or may not have produced or sent those bits and pieces.

Third, if they had all the bits and pieces and the C2 structure in place, detection still has to occur. Electronic attack platforms may have prevented detection.

That’s just off the top of my head and I’ve been out of the TAMD game now for close to 20 years, but the fundamentals are just that for a reason.
 
TCABM said:
Third, if they had all the bits and pieces and the C2 structure in place, detection still has to occur. Electronic attack platforms may have prevented detection.

That’s just off the top of my head and I’ve been out of the TAMD game now for close to 20 years, but the fundamentals are just that for a reason.
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I've been out of the SEAD (Suppression of enemy air defenses) in uniform since my last EA-6B flight in 2007 but stayed in it as part off my post-Navy SIGINT life. The game has changed a lot. While then it was focused on airborne electronic attack using tactical aircraft, the field has now merged with cyber warfare as SAM and EW have become more network-centric and now the use of both automious and ground controlled drones as a force multiplier are coming into their own. Mix in stealth, or at least lower RCS platforms and life as an air defense operator is getting harder.
 
Procurement and build of complex systems takes a good long time, and with Russia’s Ukraine problems, I doubt they have extra air defense/SAMs sitting in a warehouse to sell.
 
billsgs126 said:
Arab militaries (and I know Iran is Persian) are organized to defend the powerful elites who run those nations from domestic challengers, not from foreign threats. Plus they are corrupt on a scale that Westerners can hardly fathom. Here we have a first-world nation, where the military has some realistic aspirations to being a meritocracy, that understands that a theocratic sixth-world nation wishes for its destruction.
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Ding ding ding. Winner!

Yeah this is why the application of your military on home soil is a slippery slope. You looking for a fighting force to deal with external bad guys? Or a bunch of guys to do the political bidding?

Choice choice..
 
Racerx said:
I suspect the some of our biggest enemies in Iran and Russia aren't nearly as well equipped as feared or as they lead on.
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Spot on. It's a big d!ck measuring competition with no ruler and everybody still has there pants on...
 
Jim K said:
News i heard was that Mossad disabled most all of the SAM sites just before the attack. Apparently they smuggled a drone "carrier" INTO Iran on the ground. Israel had sufficient air superiority the they carried out aerial refueling in Iranian airspace.

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The entire 700km border between Iran and Azerbaijan is at full disposal of Mossad. During 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Israel provided HUGE stockpiles of very advanced weapons to Azerbaijan. Several times a day IL-76s flew between Israel and Azerbaijan. That was a wise investment that has reached its maturity and now is paying fat dividends.
 
Jim K said:
News i heard was that Mossad disabled most all of the SAM sites just before the attack. Apparently they smuggled a drone "carrier" INTO Iran on the ground. Israel had sufficient air superiority the they carried out aerial refueling in Iranian airspace.

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That’s undoubtedly a BIG piece of the answer, but don’t discount just how difficult it is to detect an F-35. Iran probably saw nothing until suddenly their sky was filled with bombs.
 
Iran in its current form is a young country, and young countries often behave like young men: easily offended, touchy about perceived slights, overconfident in their abilities, and unthinking about the consequences of their actions (or inactions). And all that oil money, like the little rich snot who thinks Daddy's money will get him out of anything. Add to that the theocracy's belief that Allah will protect them, and you have a recipe for disaster.
 
Dana said:
Iran in its current form is a young country, and young countries often behave like young men: easily offended, touchy about perceived slights, overconfident in their abilities, and unthinking about the consequences of their actions (or inactions). And all that oil money, like the little rich snot who thinks Daddy's money will get him out of anything. Add to that the theocracy's belief that Allah will protect them, and you have a recipe for disaster.
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Now imagine that overconfident, unthinking little rich snot with a nuke.....
 
Half Fast said:
Now imagine that overconfident, unthinking little rich snot with a nuke.....
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Personally, I've never been concerned about Iran with a nuke. But I can understand how folks in Israel might feel differently given the repeated threats the Ayatollah and his IRGC like to hurl at them. Vowing destruction and all. At some point you do have to treat their threats as real because the downside of underestimating their sincerity could be unbelievably catastrophic.

On the other hand, the fact that both India and Pakistan have nukes I find very concerning.
 
flyingron said:
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I know that I am considerably younger than the average PoA member. But the humor in this clip, like the humor in so many things created before I was born is informed by knowledge rather than exalted* ignorance.

* I have to be careful, spellwreck changed "exalted" (as typed) to "explained". Somewhat illustrating my point.
 
billsgs126 said:
I know that I am considerably younger than the average PoA member. But the humor in this clip, like the humor in so many things created before I was born is informed by knowledge rather than exalted* ignorance.

* I have to be careful, spellwreck changed "exalted" (as typed) to "explained". Somewhat illustrating my point.
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Almost too old for me, it was released in 1965 (I was 5 at the time). Still I grew up singing Tom's songs. He's still alive at the age of 97.
 
I for one am looking forward to regime change in Iran so we can repatriate our F-14's.
 
Iran militaristic? Not sure what that means and relative to what other countries?

Young country? Maybe if you only consider the 1979 regime change.

They couldn’t defeat Iraq over an 8 year period in the 1980s. Weak military then, and especially now. Very little popular support.

Iranian leadership is externally weak. The credence the US press (and politicians) give them is misplaced. Same as supposed WMDs in Iraq. Same as how powerful supposedly Russia is but can’t work their way out of or thru Ukraine to end it.

US (Carter) f’ed up its policy with Iran in the late 70s and here we are. Things could have been much much different and better for the US and the rest of the world. Shoulda coulda woulda. Short sighted and idiotic.
 
That f****n p***y Khamenei is in hiding/on the run. So much for power. Fricken US media and politicians, wrong again.

Hopefully any power vacuum won’t be worse than what the last 46 years has brought for the people. There is a movement (has been) that is increasing to bring the former Shah’s son into power.

If we were strategic we would try to get him into power and maintain some semblance of a civilized regime rather than a child-raping bunch of mullahs. No one is without fault and sin, but it’s the much lesser of two evils.
 
flyingron said:
Almost too old for me, it was released in 1965 (I was 5 at the time). Still I grew up singing Tom's songs. He's still alive at the age of 97.
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I show his "New Math" every semester in my beginning computer science class when we start base 2, base 8, base 16. I can tell by the reactions who's going to do well in the semester.

For those of us who remember - Tom was also a writer on the Smothers Brothers show.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
That f****n p***y Khamenei is in hiding/on the run. So much for power. Fricken US media and politicians, wrong again.

Hopefully any power vacuum won’t be worse than what the last 46 years has brought for the people. There is a movement (has been) that is increasing to bring the former Shah’s son into power.

If we were strategic we would try to get him into power and maintain some semblance of a civilized regime rather than a child-raping bunch of mullahs. No one is without fault and sin, but it’s the much lesser of two evils.
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If Iran descends into an internal struggle, akin to Syria or Libya, I don't think it'll be the worst thing. That's 10+ years they aren't making trouble for anyone else. A nice break after the last several decades. It's a bummer for the people -- but they're not innocent in this either. Fifty years of tacit support to a regime that sows mayhem around the world has a price, and it would seem that bill is coming due.

On the bright side, if it does sink into chaos then I'm sure people will be paying a visit to the homes of the former morality police. If I were them I'd probably be plotting my escape right quick and in a hurry.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Fifty years of tacit support to a regime that sows mayhem around the world has a price, and it would seem that bill is coming due.
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There have been numerous uprisings by the people over the last few decades that have been squashed by jailings and death penalties. If by “tacit” you mean keeping your nose to the grindstone if you have a lot to lose (a decent job and a family to feed) then I agree.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
If Iran descends into an internal struggle, akin to Syria or Libya, I don't think it'll be the worst thing. That's 10+ years they aren't making trouble for anyone else.
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Also, remember Iraq and the vacuum troubles there after Sadaam. While it may have seemed less dangerous to the rest of the world, additional locals and US troops lost their lives after the overthrow for at least 10 years.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think I have all the answers, but some things were handled wrongly (and maybe by design).
 
The Israelis blew up a couple Tomcats today. That made me very sad.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
There have been numerous uprisings by the people over the last few decades that have been squashed by jailings and death penalties. If by “tacit” you mean keeping your nose to the grindstone if you have a lot to lose (a decent job and a family to feed) then I agree.
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There were uprisings but they weren't prolonged or intense enough to be successful. Life wasn't bad enough for people to really revolt. Or perhaps they didn't have enough *cough* external interference *cough* to help push things along. People in Syria on the other hand ran Assad out of power. From what I read they had chemical barrel bombs or some such weapons dropped on them, and they still didn't surrender. That's a real revolution. 1979 Iran was a real revolution.

By "tacit" support I mean this: if you go to work, pay your taxes, and publicly/outwardly do the things the government wants you to do -- you're supporting them.

For instance, there's a lot of self-proclaimed would-be revolutionaries in the US (on both sides). But they do nothing. Just keyboard warriors that complain, and maybe walk around with a cardboard sign during a protest. If that's the extent of your uprising because you don't want to risk your life, livelihood or your other privileges, then you clearly don't want change that bad. So that's how they remain, quiet, slightly disgruntled people who wish things were better but will do nothing to make that happen.

I don't mean to be insensitive to the truly brave people of Iran who DID put themselves on the line (like the girl who refused the hijab and got beat to death on the train in Iran), but the bulk of the people were content enough to go about their daily life. Pain wasn't bad enough.

Same thing happens in Russia. You have people who stand up to the government, get beat down the government. Life is not bad enough in Russia apparently to reach some critical mass of pushback against their gov't. People are complicit.

455 Bravo Uniform said:
Also, remember Iraq and the vacuum troubles there after Sadaam. While it may have seemed less dangerous to the rest of the world, additional locals and US troops lost their lives after the overthrow for at least 10 years.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think I have all the answers, but some things were handled wrongly (and maybe by design).
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Yeah, crazies seem to thrive in vacuums. ISIS comes to mind. And even the whisper of a US withdraw in Afghanistan was enough to entice the Taliban to come out of the woodwork.

Don't get me wrong either -- I do want the best for the people of Iran. I have an exceptionally favorable view of Iranians as a whole (I will not pay the same compliment to some other countries in the gulf region). I hope they get a nice, moderate government after the Ayatollah is deposed and out of power. But the most important thing to me is that Iran is neutered from doing true global harm. And if that means they have a tough period of growing pains where they have to figure out what's next for their country -- so be it. It had to happen eventually. And it's more important to me they figure that out than we just rush to install another puppet who everyone knows answers to our interests.
 
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ArrowFlyer86 said:
Don't get me wrong either -- I do want the best for the people of Iran. I have an exceptionally favorable view of Iranians as a whole (I will not pay the same compliment to some other countries in the gulf region). I hope they get a nice, moderate government after the Ayatollah is deposed and out of power. But the most important thing to me is that Iran is neutered from doing true global harm. And if that means they have a tough period of growing pains where they have to figure out what's next for their country -- so be it. It had to happen eventually. And it's more important to me they figure that out than we just rush to install another puppet who everyone knows answers to our interests.
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Fully agree. And your first sentence is something I have thought about often, especially while doing 9 months vacations in the Persian gulf/Gulf of Oman/North Arabian Sea. Iran has a population that is friendly and interested in the west, and they have tasted the good life. They happen to have a terrible violent theocracy that hates us and oppresses them. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is filled with a bunch of s***bags who hate us all, but they have a government that pretends to like us to our faces.
 
35 AoA said:
Fully agree. And your first sentence is something I have thought about often, especially while doing 9 months vacations in the Persian gulf/Gulf of Oman/North Arabian Sea. Iran has a population that is friendly and interested in the west, and they have tasted the good life. They happen to have a terrible violent theocracy that hates us and oppresses them. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is filled with a bunch of s***bags who hate us all, but they have a government that pretends to like us to our faces.
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Exactly. Mirrors my own experience traveling the middle east for a few vacations (never to Iran for obvious reasons). My socializing with Iranians was mostly through college, refugee program, language exchange and a boss. They were intelligent, friendly, western-compatible type people. They had a pretty strong tilt towards science and knowledge in general.

The Saudis, Emiratis and Qataris were, for lack of a better phrase... Wealthy, rude, super religious, and no interest in talking to anyone. But I know there's probably some great people there, I just never met any of them lol.

Current tensions notwithstanding, I still maintain that if I were on a deserted road in the middle east, I'd rather get picked up by a truckload of Iranians rather than a truckload of Wahhabist from across the gulf. With the latter, I'd expect to end up making a debut appearance on LiveLeaks.

Also, Iran's done some bad stuff... but I don't recall them ever chopping up a US resident with a bonesaw in an embassy. So they got that going for 'em. They also weren't the people who supplied like every bad guy for 9/11 and then used their government clout to cover it up for decades. And also had problems with royal family members donating money to ISIS. And the list goes on. Petroleum markets require us to make strange bedfellows, I suppose.
 
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Being the procrastinator, I filled out all of my college registration paperwork really late one year, and ended up in housing in what was supposed to be the least desirable dorm on campus - the international suite. For a semester I was the only white guy in the building, and it was a really great experience.

My roommate was from UAE, and was a sharp guy, and a nice guy. Said no one native to their country worked or needed to, all the labor was imported. He didn't have any need to go to school, he wanted to for the challenge and the experience. So my contacts might not have been of average citizens.

Down the hall were two students from Iran. The girl was smart, sweet, very quiet. The guy was ok, but a lot of the anti-west rhetoric had soaked in. Not the religious bits, but that the rest of the world was conspiring to destroy them. And this was in the 80s.

I could never pronounce the roommate's name well enough to not have him correct me, so after about a day and a half we agreed that we'd just call each other "Mr Roommate". The beer in the fridge was always safe, I knew which direction Mecca was, and the only annoying thing was the occasional 3am phone call in Arabic. He spoke perfect English, except when he was out at a bar, when he'd not be able to communicate well and had to enlist the help of a local girl to translate for him. He was a funny guy.

Anyway, everyone in the dorm pretty much agreed that the Iranian guy was kinda nuts. Sample size of 1, but propaganda can soak into some people pretty well.
 
1957, Fort Gordan, Augusta Georgia.

i was a student learning radio repair. The students included some from Iran. They were 2nd Lieutenants, most of us just privates, becoming PFC during the 6 month school. There were 4 longer term career Army guys, corporal and sergeants, who shared our barracks, but were platoon leaders, and had 2 man rooms.

The Iranians were intelligent, hard working, and about the middle of the class for grades. They lived in the Bachelor Officer's Quarters and drove a car to class, we were in 80 man barracks, and marched half a mile to class. They socialized with the officers there, not us, but that was not noticeable in class. They were always respectful of the instructors, who were mostly E3 to E5. Their English was very good, but had 'holes' in it, especially relative to Southern language variations.

My memory is fuzzy on one thing, but I think they were Airforce, not Army, but their Airforce used the same radios as our Army did, at least for communication between bases and on base.

In the present day, they are technologically advanced, hard working, and most of them do not live off the huge oil income the country generates.
The advanced technology of the war being used and sold testify to their industrial condition, the uranium processing, their scientific advancement.

Mainly, they have a religious problem that makes them a poor fit in the modern world, and there are other countries and entities that share those attitudes with them.
 
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The few Iranians I’ve known were smart, hard working honorable people.
 
Bill said:
The few Iranians I’ve known were smart, hard working honorable people.
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Bill said:
The few Iranians I’ve known were smart, hard working honorable people.
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Not this guy


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